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Apple may have sold 1.5 million iPhone 4s already
This will come as no surprise to anyone who saw all of those lines yesterday: Analysts are saying that Apple probably sold over 1.5 million iPhones yesterday, with 600,000 preorders, 100,000 in-store sales, and 50,000 sales from other places like Best Buy, with the rest coming from overseas. If that number is true (it's still just an estimate at this point), then Apple soundly broke early sales of the iPhone 3GS, which took a whole weekend to break one million sales. Still, as I said, record numbers wouldn't be surprising at all, given the turnouts at Apple Stores. Oppenheimer analyst Yar Reiner also says that about 76 percent of the buyers yesterday were actually upgrading their iPhones, with only about 21 percent switching to AT&T. Of the customers getting an iPhone for the first time, 41 percent were originally T-Mobile, with only 28 percent coming from Verizon (who is rumored to be getting its own iPhone soon). No matter what the final numbers turn out to be, yesterday was a heck of a day for Apple -- anecdotally, it was the biggest launch many of us have ever seen. It's only a day after release, and already the iPhone 4 is a huge success.
Wii installed base growing more quickly than PS2's did
During E3, Nintendo gave a presentation to analysts about the company's new offerings and its current status. Reggie Fils-Aime presented the above slide, which shows the startling truth about the Wii's installed base in the United States: in its fourth year on the market, it's larger than the ubiquitous PlayStation 2's installed base at the same point in its life, by a margin of almost five million units. Of course, the PS2 has had a spectacularly long lifespan after that, with Sony announcing 7.2 million units sold just last year. Later in the presentation, Reggie revealed that around 300,000 units of the black Wii console have been sold since its May 9 introduction in North America, and Super Mario Galaxy 2 is "approaching 900,000 units here in the U.S."
Feuding analysts argue about whether the iPad is boosting Mac sales
Think it's only Apple faithful who are adding an iPad to their gadget cache? According to Chitika Research, that's not true. The online advertising firm keeps a close eye on which platforms are downloading its ads the most, and it says that Mac computers accounted for 10.3 percent of wasted bandwidth in April. That's up from 7.4 percent in the January - March timeframe (you know, the pre-iPad era), and Chitika Research Director Daniel Ruby says "90% of that increase was due to the iPad halo effect." Meanwhile, NPD analyst Stephen Baker believes that the boost is instead thanks to the new MacBook Pro models that were released at the same time, and Technology Business Research analyst Ezra Gottheil says "early data on the iPad indicated that most buyers were already in the Apple club." Who is right? Survey says... your guess is as good as ours, and any of theirs, apparently.
Analyst: 40% of AT&T customers may head to Verizon if there's a vPhone
If the rumors are true and Verizon does eventually get to carry the iPhone, AT&T's CEO should probably be a little more worried than he is. Analyst Drake Johnstone says that if Verizon does carry Apple's smartphone, 40% of its customers are likely ready to jump ship for another carrier. That's 6 million of AT&T's estimated 15 million customers, all yearning to break free of their bonds to AT&T. That sounds high to me, and indeed, Johnstone admits that, as time goes on, that number will probably be much lower. Not only are AT&T's plans tough to get out of (and therefore not really worth the trouble to switch), but even if you do, they've just upped their termination fees, which will put another roadblock in the way. And Johnstone also says that AT&T's coverage is getting better by the day, so by the time Verizon does have the iPhone, AT&T's technical problems might not be so bad. Even if the number isn't quite as high as 40%, iPhone exclusivity has been a huge boon for AT&T in the past, and losing it won't be good for the company. If Apple announces a Verizon deal later this year, investors will be keeping a huge watch on what AT&T ends up dealing with.
Many Verizon customers suffering from "extreme" interest in iPhone, BMX biking
A report over on Digital Daily this morning reveals something that may not come as much of a surprise -- people on other carriers (in this instance, Verizon) want the iPhone. Recent research out of Morgan Stanley shows there is "significant" demand for Apple's cellular delight -- with about 16.8 percent of Verizon's subscribers having "extreme interest" in the product compared to 7.5 percent in the overall population. What does this mean? It means that, if given the chance (i.e. if the iPhone came to Verizon), about 17 percent of current users would switch. That's a pretty high number, to be sure, and Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty estimates that such a deal could move around 7 or 8 million iPhones annually. Of course, all of this comes from an analyst, and it's based on an unscientific survey, so take it with a grain of salt. Still, what's the deal, Steve? We know you love money -- make it happen!
Pachter: April's low game sales 'baffling'
The April NPD sales figures for the US were bad. How bad? Let's try: The April NPD figures were as if millions of analysts "cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced" bad. Speaking with IndustryGamers, Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter says his group found the results "baffling." He notes that sales were the lowest since May of 2007, "when this generation was barely underway," and it was the weakest April since 2005. Pachter also stated, "The sequential decline of 54% is the greatest in the 11 years that we have been tracking monthly data (except for December-January declines), dwarfing the previous record of 42% set in March-April 2002." At a loss to explain exactly why April 2010 was so bad, Pachter feels it was just a "fluke." He explained, "We do not believe that core gamers suddenly shifted allegiance to Facebook or iPhone games in April, nor do we believe that Call of Duty Modern Warfare 2 online play increased dramatically during April." With May's lineup including several major titles across multiple consoles, the analyst feels the month could show "dramatic growth." If not, well, let's just hope for the best right now. Flukes happen.
Nintendo expects falling profits for fiscal 2009
As predicted by analysts late last year, Nintendo is forecasting a drop in annual profits for the first time since the Nintendo DS's 2004 introduction. It's not a loss, just a reduction in profits -- Nintendo is still forecasting profits of ¥230 billion ($2.43 billion), compared to fiscal 2009's ¥279.1 billion ($2.95 billion). The AP's Yuri Kageyama notes that the Wii price drop, as well as slower sales early in the fiscal year (reflected in the first half earnings report), negatively impacted Nintendo's profits. Analyst Yuta Sakurai thinks Nintendo is being too pessimistic (or just not optimistic enough, considering that the subject is enormous profit). "We are expecting the results to be better than the company forecasts for the Wii," the Nomura Securities analyst said. "Christmas shopping was strong." Nintendo did have an extraordinary December, with both the Wii and the DS breaking three million units each just in the US. It then went on to break sales records in the first two months of 2010. Perhaps Sakurai is correct, and Nintendo is just being modest about its profits. We'll find out on Thursday when Nintendo releases its annual earnings. [Via 1UP]
Nielsen finds 53% of homes have HDTVs, but only 46% can receive an HD signal
So close, and yet so far away. The good news from Nielsen's latest Television Audience Report is that it reaffirms a CTAM survey indicating HDTV ownership has finally crossed into the majority (up from just a third a year ago) however there's still a significant number of people out there who can't actually watch HDTV on their new set. Even accounting for the cable cutters who simply choose not to watch pay-TV on their display, that's still a significant number of people not getting everything they can out of their television set. We'd point out that these numbers should mean considerably more focus paid towards the high definition capable viewers but judging by recent events -- it would appear broadcasters and content producers have gotten the message. As the ruling majority, the only question left is what exactly should we do with this power?
NPD: Handheld gaming growing in popularity among children
New data from the NPD shows that portable game systems are increasing in popularity among kids aged 4 to 14. 44% of kids in the U.S. between these ages use a handheld, up eight percent from a similar study in 2005. What happened since 2005? Oh, right, the PSP and DS Lite. And the iPhone, for that matter. Just eight percent? According to the report, more kids own portable game systems than other types of devices. In addition, NPD noted that many of these handhelds were acquired used, with more kids receiving used game systems in 2009 than in 2008. "Kids ages 14 and under were the primary recipient of 37 percent of hardware unit sales for the 12 months ending March 2010," NPD analyst Anita Frazier told IndustryGamers, also noting that the amount of kid-targeted digital content being downloaded is on the rise, suggesting that kids are open to the transition to digital distribution.
Pachter: First Activision-Bungie game 'well along' in development, will sell at least 10 million units
Though firm details about the terms of the Activision-Bungie partnership are still awfully slim, industry analyst extraordinaire Michael Pachter has given his two cents to Gamasutra about the financial potential of the merger, which should result in Activision earning a great deal more than two cents. First, Pachter suggests this is a publishing partnership instead of a mere distribution agreement, which will increase Activision's profit margins from around 10 percent to anywhere between 15 and 20 percent on all of Bungie's titles. He estimates that, should the developer's future titles be as popular as its Halo franchise (which typically sold 10 million units a piece), they could sell as many as 15 million units by virtue of Bungie's new multiplatform ambitions. According to his calculations, Activision stands to make $65 million off the first successful Bungie title should it match the success of the Halo series. The time to test Pachter's calculations might be closer than you'd think -- he reports that the first Bungivision product, which is set in an "action game universe," is "well along in its development." We're not sure how "well along" said title actually is, but we'll keep our ears perked up for an announcement at E3. An announcement for Guitar Halo. There, we said it, alright? We were all thinking it, and now it's out there.
Nook outsells Kindle in March?
Given DigiTimes' spotty record when it comes to pushing rumors you might be inclined to read "Digitimes Research" as a kind of oxymoron. Unfortunately, as long as Amazon refuses to publish specifics with regard to units sold, these analyst estimates are as good as it gets. What's interesting is that DigiTimes' checks at upstream suppliers reveal that Barnes & Noble's Nook accounted for 53 percent of all e-book readers shipped to US vendors in March. Interesting since Kindle is Amazon's bestselling product and an increasing share of the company's revenue is based on sales of electronics and general merchandise. Still, it's our guess that Amazon doesn't care too much about selling its own hardware (it's in the business of selling other people's content and goods). Besides, the Kindle app is already available on a wide range of devices including Apple's iPad and a wide variety of smartphones. One place you can't install it, however, is on the steadily improving Nook.
Netflix to gain two million subscribers from consoles in 2010
Analyst Michael Pachter says that despite a lower amount of new Netflix subscriptions lately, video game consoles will still give the movie rental service a boost this year, providing over two million new subscribers thanks to the Xbox 360, PlayStation 3 and the Nintendo Wii. Pachter suggests that the Xbox 360 will continue to provide 350,000 new subscribers, and the PS3 and the Wii will each turn in around 800,000 new subscribers this year. But Pachter also says that future growth is limited -- the PS3 doesn't have quite the install base that the Xbox does and, while there are a lot of Wiis out there, Pachter's firm believes that most of those consoles aren't even connected to the Internet ("we estimate fewer than 35%," he writes). So the total new subscribers estimated for 2011 drops down to 900K to 1.2 million. That's still a lot of MST3K downloads -- because come on, if you're watching anything but that on Netflix, you're crazy -- but not enough to keep Netflix's estimated growth from being called "unsustainable."
Poll: Still waiting for the Apple HDTV?
We don't know if an iPad has joined you for some couch computing yet -- or ever -- but reminiscent of its long journey from rumor to release, predictions of an Apple branded HDTV have appeared yet again. Our burning question for this week? Whether or not anyone is still waiting to see if the company makes the jump to such a competitive and often low-profit margin business. So if you can't see Apple mixing it up with the likes of VIZIO at Wal-mart, or can't wait for an improved UI and content experience engineered by the geniuses at Apple, let us know how you think things could go. %Poll-43903%
Was Nintendo pressured into revealing the 3DS early?
Hey, remember when Nintendo unveiled a 3D Nintendo DS, the 3DS, completely out of the blue? And you know how they announced it just a week before we Americans finally got our hands on the DSi XL -- effectively making it seem obsolete before it even hit retail? It seemed like curiously unfortunate timing, but according to M2 Senior Analyst Billy Pigeon, there was something more sinister behind the surprise unveil: the Japanese media. "Apparently, the Japanese press was all over it and talked with suppliers there and Nintendo just wanted to get out ahead by breaking the news to prevent a leak." That they did, but they also subverted the US launch of the oversized DSi in the process. It's a gaming system few really thought they needed in the first place, and now with confirmation of something better coming soon it looks even less appealing.
Analyst: Nintendo pressured by Japanese media into early 3DS reveal
M2 Research analyst Billy Pidgeon claims that the Japanese press were "all over" the upcoming 3DS before Nintendo revealed it, forcing an announcement out of the company's headquarters in Japan. In a recent CNBC report, Pidgeon alleges that the media in Japan had "talked with suppliers there and Nintendo just wanted to get out ahead by breaking the news to prevent a leak." This comes in response to the oddly-timed reveal of Nintendo's next handheld device, less than a week before the fourth iteration of its Nintendo DS was set to land on retail shelves. "Does it clash with the DSi XL? Yes it does," Pidgeon says. He goes on to claim that (even though stock prices for Nintendo jumped following the 3DS announcement), "the corporate parent in Japan may not be acting in the best interest of Nintendo of America." Alright, so, while we're not convinced that those looking to buy a brand new handheld from Nintendo are necessarily the same crowd snatching up a DSi XL, it's also probably not in Nintendo of America's best interests to have console announcements thrust upon it suddenly by the Japanese parent corp. Either way -- if it is true -- good on you Japanese press! [Via Gamasutra]
iPad suppliers forecast shipments of 8 - 10 million for calendar year 2010
Analyst Katy Huberty at Morgan Stanley has published a research note forecasting shipments of 8 - 10 million iPads during calendar year 2010. That's significantly more than previous estimates, which showed shipments of about 5 million devices. The note, as reported in a WSJ All Things Digital post, still maintains a sales estimate of greater than 6 million iPads for the year, since shipments are not necessarily equal to sales (some production remains in distribution channels at year-end). Huberty notes that investors who are bearish on the iPad say that it lacks a "killer app." She counters with speculation that the near-term target is for the sub-$800 notebook computer market, which currently appears to be in the range of 30 million units in the United States and 120 million units globally. In the long run, media (video, magazines, books) and apps that have been optimized for the iPad will significantly increase the market size. For the short term (through May, 2010), suppliers are expecting to ship 2.5 million iPads. This is up sharply from Huberty's initial estimate of 750,000 units through the end of June. Earlier this month, analysts were reporting that delays in early iPad production would limit the quantities available at launch. Huberty has not been particularly bullish on Apple in the past several years, but has recently been citing Apple's leadership in the mobile device space and talking about "bull case scenarios" for Apple's future.
Analyst ups iPad sales estimate by 30%
BMO Capital's Keith Bachman is bullish on Apple, and not in a small way. After bumping his target price for AAPL from $250 to $265 (keeping in mind that it's hovering around $227 now), he sent out a letter to clients cited by Phil Elmer-DeWitt at Apple 2.0 that explained the rationale behind the renewed optimism. Along with upside anticipation for Mac and iPod sales, Bachman gave a major collagen injection to his iPad sales projections. He's now considering his original fiscal 2010 target of 2.5 million iPads sold to be a conservative number, and he's looking at a possible 7.2 million devices moved for FY 2011. Considering he was originally citing a 5.5m outlook for 2011, that's a big shift, and it gets him more in line with estimates from Gene Munster and other analysts. Bachman bases his new numbers on his confidence in continued growth for both the ereader and netbook market segments, and Apple's ability to pick up more than 1/3 of the total sales in that space for 2010. It's a positive forecast -- and you have to think that Barnes & Noble, Sony and Amazon's potential customers are strongly considering iPads as an alternative to ereader-only purchases -- but it might be overenthusiastic to start counting those chickens before the iPad has a chance to spend a little time in the hands of real users.
Apple to make an HDTV within two to four years?
The famous Gene Munster, an analyst at Piper Jaffray, has another wacky prediction for us: within the next two years, he says, Apple will release a connected HDTV. Unlikely, to say the least -- the thinking around the virtual TUAW offices is that Munster's way off base on this one. Not only is the HDTV market pretty darn price sensitive (Apple is, of course, not one to compete on price), but Apple has always considered television "a hobby," and they're not likely to take on a whole new market unless they think they can do something different. However, we'll give Munster his chance. He says that combining "hardware, software, and content will become a key selling point for TVs" in the future, and Apple does that very, very well. He says that the natural evolution for the Apple TV is to build an all-in-one solution with a screen for about $2000, and that Apple might even offer a subscription service in order to completely oversee the producer-to-consumer relationship. Admittedly, that does sound like something Apple might want to do. Munster also says that such a service could be ported to the iPhone and iPad for a wireless solution as well, and that makes it a pretty tempting idea. Yet again, that presumes Apple wants to get involved in television, and with most of their attention already focused on bringing content to the iPad, that's a bit of a stretch. I guess we'll wait and see. Would you buy an all-in-one TV and subscription from Apple if that's what they decided to do?
Research firm shocks the internet, says most viewers loved NBC's Olympics coverage
We're not sure where the Americans Q & A Research polled live, but they must not have a decent network hookup out there because they appear to represent the most silent of majorities: the ones who absolutely loved how NBC handled the Winter Olympics. Also reported was an average of 20 hours of viewing each, with figure skating, hockey and speed skating taking top spots on the most watched events list. Even though the often ridiculous tape delay strategy was one of the most often heard complaints around these parts, it only warranted a single line in summary, noting "some" found it frustrating, but that the most notable problem was actually too much studio commentary. Are we that out of touch with the mainstream, with our DVRs, HDTVs and interest in interactive and online content, or is this study just completely off base?
Analysts: iMac to take over 25% of PC sales, Mac to see 31% growth
We're only days away from the release of the iPad, and that means analysts are doing crazy business -- they're laying out as many predictions as they can before theory becomes actual numbers. Our friend Gene Munster is first -- he says that despite the introduction of a brand new category, Mac sales will be even better than investors expect this quarter, with a whopping 26% to 31% year-over-year growth. Apparently retail data suggests that Macs are flying off of the shelves, and that Apple should end up with almost 3 million Macs sold in the March quarter. PC sales in general are also expected to increase, with the iMac carrying a whole quarter of all desktop growth this year. Desktop sales are finally headed upwards for the first time in a few years, and along with bigger sales numbers in terms of netbooks and notebooks, Apple's iMac platform is leading the charge. International sales are also expected to drive the PC market -- if the numbers are right, this will be the first time ever that sales internationally take up 50% of the desktop PC market. Interesting predictions, all. There's no question, I think, that Apple will make plenty of money this quarter. The question going forward will be whether the iPad steals sales that would have gone to the iPhone or to a MacBook. But if the past numbers with the iPhone are any indication, big interest in the portable devices actually drives Apple's desktop sales as well.
