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Analysts: iMac to take over 25% of PC sales, Mac to see 31% growth
We're only days away from the release of the iPad, and that means analysts are doing crazy business -- they're laying out as many predictions as they can before theory becomes actual numbers. Our friend Gene Munster is first -- he says that despite the introduction of a brand new category, Mac sales will be even better than investors expect this quarter, with a whopping 26% to 31% year-over-year growth. Apparently retail data suggests that Macs are flying off of the shelves, and that Apple should end up with almost 3 million Macs sold in the March quarter. PC sales in general are also expected to increase, with the iMac carrying a whole quarter of all desktop growth this year. Desktop sales are finally headed upwards for the first time in a few years, and along with bigger sales numbers in terms of netbooks and notebooks, Apple's iMac platform is leading the charge. International sales are also expected to drive the PC market -- if the numbers are right, this will be the first time ever that sales internationally take up 50% of the desktop PC market. Interesting predictions, all. There's no question, I think, that Apple will make plenty of money this quarter. The question going forward will be whether the iPad steals sales that would have gone to the iPhone or to a MacBook. But if the past numbers with the iPhone are any indication, big interest in the portable devices actually drives Apple's desktop sales as well.
NPD: Mac sales up 39 percent in January and Febuary as iPod sales rebound
Well, it looks like it's not just iPad pre-orders that are possibly be beating a few expectations -- according to NPD, sales of Macs and iPods were also up over some estimates in January and February. Citing the report, Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster says that sales of Macs were up 39% year over year for the two months (ahead of estimates of 22%), which should translate to sales of between 2.8 to 2.9 million Macs for the full quarter, while iPod sales were up 7% during the same period, suggesting total iPod sales of between nine and ten million for the first quarter. That latter number may actually be the more impressive of the two, as it marks the first time iPod sales have rebounded into positive territory in a full sixteen months -- although that trend could just as easily be reversed again if, say, Apple rolls out a new iPhone that cuts into iPod sales.
First iPad sales estimates: four million this year, double that in 2011
Even though the device won't be released for another two months, Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray has been quick to revise his sales estimates for the iPad. His former estimate of 1.9 million units sold in the first 12 months was based on an estimated average price tag of $600; now that we know the iPad is priced much lower than that, Munster has revised his estimate accordingly. With the official pricing revealed, Munster now projects iPad sales of 3-4 million units in the first twelve months and double that amount in 2011, which would generate $4.6 billion in revenue for Apple next year. Munster doesn't think the iPad will cannibalize Mac sales, however. "The gadget is a premium mobile device, not a computer," Munster believes, and goes on to say that "consumers looking for an affordable portable computer will likely stick with the MacBook lineup." Munster thinks it far more likely that the iPad will cannibalize sales of the iPod touch, and has revised his sales estimate of that device downward by 1.8 million units for 2010. I can tell you at least one person who won't be part of that 3-4 million sales for the iPad: me. When we at TUAW posted about our dreams for the then-unnamed tablet last August, I said, "In order for me to get really excited about an iTablet, it would have to be more than a gap-filler between the iPhone and the MacBook. It would have to be revolutionary, a device that does something neither existing product is able to do." Based on what I've seen about the iPad so far, though, the device seems to be something targeted toward people who don't already have that particular setup and are missing either an iPhone/iPod touch or a MacBook. That might be exactly what 3-4 million people are looking for this year, and maybe 8 million more next year, but it's not something that suits my own computing needs in any way. What do you think? Are you planning on getting an iPad and joining Munster's legions? Let us know in the comments.
Gene Munster: 2010 is the "Year of the Mac," sales up significantly
When Gene Munster talks, people listen. The Piper Jaffray analyst delivered one of his missives this morning stating that his analysis of Mac retail sales in the U.S., based on numbers tracked by NPD Group, are up about 26% year-over-year for the December quarter. This is higher than the average Wall Street estimate of 19% year-over-year growth. What does that mean in terms of units sold? Munster, who is not pictured at right, believes that translates to about 3.1 million Macs sold in the U.S. last quarter. Munster's last estimate was for Apple to sell around 2.9 million Macs, so even his own estimates are turning out to be somewhat conservative. Munster believes that Street estimates for 2010 will need to come up. The Street shows about 14% year-over-year growth in Mac sales this year, which is well below the 20% or so growth that Apple is demonstrating. In his note, Munster wrote that "2010 is shaping up to be the year of the Mac." Munster concluded his note with a statement that he's confident in his estimate of 9.3 million iPhone shipments last quarter. We'll all find out for sure on Monday, when Apple reports the actual December quarter results. We'll liveblog the financial fun right here on TUAW, so stay tuned next week. [via Business Insider]
Munster: Apple will sell more than 36 million iPhones worldwide in 2010
The wizard of tech on Wall Street, Piper Jaffray's Gene Munster, is bullish on AAPL. Not only does the senior research analyst (who looks nothing like our artistic portrait at right) project that the company will sell 36 million iPhones in 2010, but he believes that the number is conservative for international sales and doesn't take into account any expansion to other U.S. cell carriers -- Verizon, for instance. Munster's prognostications were published in a note to investors this morning, where he noted that this will be the first full year of sales with new carriers in the U.K., Canada, and France, and also the first full year of sales in China. Munster also believes that a new iPhone model will arrive around the usual June - July time frame, and that will drive sales as well. While the estimates seem rather optimistic, Munster says that his models are actually quite conservative, particularly when international sales are taken into account. For example, the Piper Jaffray models show that AT&T alone will sell 15.8 million iPhones to their customer base of 82.5 million customers, while a composite figure for three Russian carriers shows 1.8 million iPhones being sold to a combined base of 160 million subscribers. Looking ahead for calendar year 2011, Munster sees a worldwide total sales figure of 48.5 million iPhones, once again based on a model that he considers conservative. [via AppleInsider]
Rumor: Apple event in January, possible 10" tablet demoing iPhone apps
There's a flurry of rumors this morning that Apple is planning an event as soon as this January, though exactly what they'll be showing us is still in question. Most of the buzz (along with our buddy Gene Munster) says we will finally see the long-awaited tablet, and that after a January showing, it might actually be released as soon as March. Which means, of course, that by August, it'll completely revolutionize whatever industry it happens to fall into. That's usually how these things work. While a tablet is still only being bounced around, it's possible that a bigger screen is involved in some way, whether that be in a netbook style computer or something else. A few developers have reportedly been asked to ready their apps for a "full screen" resolution, which would seem to suggest that even if the new device is larger than an iPhone, it'll still run apps off the App Store. And we've even got a size for the screen: 7" has been the rumor, but now you can add three more inches to the diagonal, as a few sources are saying 10" will be the standard. Of course, all of this is hearsay and speculation so far, including the fact that we'll have an event at all. But 2010 has long been expected to finally be the year of the tablet, so why wait? We're looking forward to it. (Picture by Adam Benton for MacFormat magazine)
Overall Mac sales up 21%, desktops up 74% year over year
There's probably a number of reasons why this might have happened (and we're sure you can come up with more than we can), but nevertheless, here you go: overall Mac sales are up by 21 percent in October and November since last year at the same time, according to Gene Munster (not pictured), analyst at Piper Jaffray. Desktop Mac sales are especially huge, with the rise as high as 74%, which seems like a typo next to MacBook and MacBook Pro increases of just five percent. In fact, those gigantic desktop sales, some reason, might actually be the reason behind the recent iMac delays. At any rate, no matter why, Apple is making a boatload on Macs this quarter already. Even without the bulk of the holiday season, the desktops were already flying off the shelves in huge numbers compared to last year.
Munster predicts: Apple to sell 7 million iPhones in September quarter
Piper Jaffray senior research analyst Gene Munster, who is not pictured at right, is continuing his love affair with all things AAPL. In the last few weeks he's told us that the iPhone will be picked up by another U.S. carrier in 2010, that Steve Jobs will be on hand at the September 9th Apple music event, and that there would be an AppleTV announcement at the event (this was quashed by Jim Dalrymple at The Loop). Now the Munster-man is back with even more good news. He believes now that manufacturing capacity for the iPhone 3GS has ramped up and supply is adequate, Apple is on track to sell 7 million iPhones during the quarter ending September 30th. According to Munster, tight supplies of the 3GS at launch led AT&T store managers to recommend the less pricey 3G to customers. Now that supplies are adequate, store managers are recommending the 3GS, which remains the best selling device at AT&T outlets. Piper Jaffray's figures indicate that during August, the iPhone took share from BlackBerry, the Nokia E71x, and other competitors. Munster's last prediction isn't so rosy, but is based on historical precedent -- he expects Apple's stock price to dip after tomorrow's event by about 1 percent. [via AppleInsider]
Munster: Apple to sell 500,000 units of iPhone 3G S this weekend
Everyone's favorite Apple analyst, Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray, is positively bullish on Apple and the iPhone. In a forecast released today and reported in AppleInsider, Munster says he expects Apple to sell a half-million units of the iPhone 3G S this weekend. This is much more than the 270,000 first-generation iPhones sold in the first weekend in 2007, but pales in comparison to the 1 million mark set last year with the release of the iPhone 3G. The difference this year? When the iPhone 3G was released in 2008, the new equipment was also accompanied by a drop in price and availability in 21 countries. For new users, the 3G S is the same price as the 3G, and the release of the 3G S tomorrow will only happen in 8 key market countries.Munster's other prognostications include a total of 3 million iPhones sold in June for a quarterly total of 5 million, and an estimate of 7 million sold in the upcoming September quarter. He continues to rate AAPL as a buy, and has a $180 target share price for Apple.
Wall Street analysts anticipate WWDC 09
With WWDC 09 coming up next week, Wall Street analysts are polishing their crystal balls and commenting on what they think we'll hear about. In a post on Barron's Tech Trader Daily blog, Eric Savitz polled the top tech analysts for their ideas. Yair Reiner of Oppenheimer believes that the new iPhones will be delayed until WWDC so that the conference focus will be on Snow Leopard and iPhone OS 3.0. Shaw Wu of Kaufman Brothers is in agreement, and Wu also believes that AT&T will offer more flexible service plans, and that the iPhone line will split into a high-end version with improved battery life and a junior version with less functionality. Savitz's post goes on to tap Phil Cusick of Macquarie Research for his ideas, which also include the split of the line into high-end and entry-level iPhones. He's noted as saying that the high-end phone will include both a front camera for video chat and a rear mounted autofocus camera, but that an OLED screen won't be a feature of this device. Kathryn Huberty of Morgan Stanley is cited as believing that the new iPhones will be unveiled at WWDC, with a $100 price cut, lower AT&T service plan fees, and entrance into the China market, thereby increasing demand. Huberty is noted as thinking that Apple won't add another US carrier before 2011. Vincent Rech of Societe Generale also believes that China is ripe for an iPhone distribution deal. Everybody's favorite research analyst, Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray, has high hopes for AppleTV in the near future, according to a post on the Wall Street Journal's All Things Digital site today. Blogger John Paczkowsi cites Munster as believing that Apple is working on both a new AppleTV for a September release and an App Store to go with it. WWDC 09 might be used as a launch site for an AppleTV SDK, along with an announcement of an App Store for AppleTV for a 2010 launch. Munster, who has a pretty good track record at Apple predictions, feels that future AppleTV apps could include digital video services for expanding content offerings (he cites Hulu as an example) and that an SDK would enable use of the iPhone or iPod touch as a game controller. The consensus? Pretty much everyone believes that new iPhones are imminent, although the timing of the release is up in the air. Several of the analysts believe that the new devices will be announced at a separate Apple event towards the end of June where Steve Jobs can make his long-awaited return to the company. Whatever the outcome of WWDC, be sure to stay tuned to TUAW for our continuing coverage of this important event.
Analyst: Walmart will sell 4.5 million iPhones in 2009
Which hardly seems believable, but you never know. Yes, Walmart, that bastion of crass commercialism, is going to be carrying the iPhone, that symbol of elegant commercialism, and what we're going to get is a whole lot of commercialism. Analyst Gene Munster (our favorite prognosticator other than the Groundhog himself) says that not only will Apple sell a whopping 45 million iPhones next year, but a tenth of them will be sold right here in America at good ol' Walmart.Apparently he didn't change his numbers from before the announcement of the Walmart deal, since he had already planned on Apple finding other ways to sell the iPhone. But man, that's a lot of iPhones – enough to give everyone in my current city of Chicago an iPhone, and then some to spare (we'd send them to St. Louis, if we actually had a Walmart here to buy them from).But no one's ever been proven wrong overestimating Apple sales we guess. If you think iPhones are commonplace now, wait until you see them at Walmart.[via MacBytes]
Leopard: All signs point to 10/26
Does anyone else think it's a little crazy that we're already 1/4 of the way through October and we still don't have an official release date for Leopard? It'll almost assuredly be at the very end of the month, but in terms of date and time, no one has an official clue.For a Piper Jaffray analyst, however, all signs point to October 26th (and gwhiz adds 6 p.m. on that Friday afternoon just like the iPhone launch). Makes a lot of sense to me-- Friday is clearly a great day to launch a product, as it gives Apple the weekend to claim sales figures, as well as gives us consumers a chance to break open the box and get it installed right away. Analyst Gene Munster says, also, that it's the end of the first month of a fiscal quarter, which Apple likes for boosting sales-- Tiger released in the same situation.Plus, you know, the 25th is a full moon, so there's even more fuel for the speculatory fire. I agree that the 26th sounds pretty convincing, but of course we won't know for sure until Steve wants us to.Thanks, Zoli!
AT&T activates 146k iPhones in Q2, Wall Street frowns
While earlier estimates suggested that AT&T would make out like gangbusters considering just how many iPhones it reportedly moved as Q2 came to a close, investors aren't reacting fondly to the firm's latest report. Even though the telco posted a $2.9 billion increase in net income and sales of $29.5 billion, it "only" managed to activate 146,000 iPhones -- which sent Apple's stock tumbling up to 6% (read: billions). Notably, some 40-percent of those iPhone buyers were new to AT&T, which helped to slash customer turnover to a record low, but it's not surprise with previous estimates as high as 1m+ iPhones sold, these numbers didn't exactly impress Wall Street; Piper Jaffray & Co. analyst Gene Munster even went so far as to call the amount of iPhone activations "a disappointment."Update: We went back and edited this post to present a better sense of what's going on in this story.[Via mocoNews]
500,000 iPhones sold so far -- but can Apple keep up?
No matter how you slice it, moving 500,000 units of any product during its inaugural weekend launch is big. According to Gene Munster, analyst at Piper Jaffray, that's exactly what Apple's iPhone managed to pull off. After originally expecting Apple to sell "only" 200,000 iPhones on Friday and Saturday, he's now estimating that Apple sold a half-million iPhones from start of sales at 6pm on Friday until close of business on Sunday even with supply issues at AT&T store. According to their survey, 95% of buyers purchased the 8GB model with 50% of all buyers making the switch from another carrier to AT&T. Great news right? Maybe, but in a potentially worrying trend, Apple is showing a marked decrease in iPhone availability at their retail locations this morning. While stores showed a 100% iPhone availability (they don't break it down by 4GB and 8GB models) on Saturday which dropped to 84% on Sunday, Apple's retail channel is showing a further decline in availability for Monday across Apple's brick and mortar retail business. In particular, Californians not living in San Francisco will have a tough time locating the device with 34 of 36 stores bleeding red on Apple's retail locator site -- a potential supply problem especially if AT&T shops remain void of product. Sure, you can still order on-line albeit with that same 2-4 week delivery delay we've seen since day 1.Update: Global Equities Research claims 525,000 iPhones were sold through Sunday. A quick calculation shows that only 61% of Apple's 164 stores are stocked with iPhones for today or 23% fewer than yesterday.
Apple to drop new Macbooks and iMacs at WWDC?
While we know for sure that Steve is going to show off a "feature-complete" version of Leopard at this year's WWDC, and we wouldn't be surprised if the iPhone got some quality time on stage as well, we haven't really heard anything solid about any hardware revisions taking place next month. Well, Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray's resident Apple analyst, crunched some numbers (or visited MacRumors) recently and speculated during a recent conference call that he expects to see new MacBook Pros released at WWDC. Seeing as Apple is basically the only big company that hasn't announced a Santa Rosa laptop, an announcement at WWDC wouldn't exactly shock us, but Munster decided to get a little wackier with his predictions, saying that by his calculations, Apple releases new pro lappies every 182 days, and that the current MBP has been on the market for 209 days. Similarly, Munster used the vast resources of the multinational investment bank that employs him to determine that Apple releases new iMacs around every 168 days, and that the current generation has been on the market for 257 days. Quelle horreur! We're not sure how these numbers led Gene to determine that we'll see new MBPs for sure and maybe new iMacs (seems like the other way around to us), but there it is. Analysts are often prone to over-speculating about Apple launches, but at this point it's almost anyone's guess -- trying to call Apple's next move is a cruel, cruel mistress.[Thanks, Kiwi]
