Michael-Pachter
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Pachter: Nintendo is like McDonald's
The man with his own Joystiq tag, Michael Pachter, is at it again, this time talking about Nintendo and the Wii. In likening Nintendo's success with the Wii to that of McDonald's success in slowly killing you, Pachter says a lot of what worked for the food chain is working for Nintendo right now. Does that make Mario a Big Mac? "They buy the Wii games that they buy for the same reason that people go to McDonald's," Pachter said on consumers. Further elaborating on his comparison of the two companies, he said, "McDonald's doesn't win a lot of restaurant critic awards but they are approachable, they're consistent, and you know what they're going to serve you." He says that if the "concept is right," the "recognition factor" is there, and if "you can 'get it' from what's on the box," then "sometimes the game doesn't even have to be that good in order for it to sell." He must have skipped lunch today, because Pachter also brought Nintendo's competition into the food comparison mix, saying, "Nintendo has become the fast food machine. Sony is very much the high-end restaurant. And Microsoft is somewhere in between." So, basically, the Wii is like a #4 on the value menu, the Xbox 360 is like lunch at Applebee's, and the PS3 is like getting a reservation at Dorcia on a Friday night. Got it.
Pachter: New GTA in 2010, Lost and Damned could sell 2m this year
Wedbush Morgan soothsayer Michael Pachter foresees the next console Grand Theft Auto releasing next year and estimates sales of DLC The Lost and Damned reaching two million units by year's end. Pachter feels Take-Two remains a "one-hit wonder" with Grand Theft Auto, that one franchise has been (putting it mildly) immensely successful.Although Take-Two has yet to announce a new GTA, Pachter believes the next installment in the crime series will pull up to retail next year and likely outsell GTA IV by 50 percent, due to the greater next-gen console install base by next year. Although there are currently no solid numbers to support Pachter's belief that The Lost and Damned DLC will sell two million units this year, we do know a lot of people got on their hogs for biker-based adventure.%Gallery-37692%
Will the economic downturn hurt WoW?
GamePolitcs had an interesting news brief about Michael Pachter, a financial analyst with Wedbush-Morgan, who contends that MMOs will not be impacted in the current economic downturn because the majority of people who play them are "addicts."The full interview with Pachter is available from Reuters.Besides the negative stereotypes and sweeping generalizations that come with statements like "people who play [MMOs] are addicts," Pachter does make a good point. He notes that "Losing their jobs makes them more likely to play because they have more time to play."I thought about this for a minute. If I were to lose my job here at WoW Insider, I would no doubt start looking for new employment almost immediately. I would scale back my expenses – probably get rid of cable TV (Hulu is my TV now anyways), I'd eat out less, I'd use the library more and Barnes & Noble less, and I would generally be more frugal with my spending.But I don't think I would cancel my WoW subscription.
Pachter: Riccitiello is the right man to save EA
With all of the bombshells EA dropped last night, some might be questioning whether John Riccitiello is the right man to guide EA into a profitable future. Video game analyst Michael Pachter isn't one of those, however. Pachter thinks that's the kind of person that needs to be in charge at EA and describes Riccitiello as "a bright guy with a ton of experience" and being "sufficiently conscientious to lead the company." It wasn't all sunshine and lollipops from Pachter's end, however, as he criticizes Riccitiello's past strategies for EA and his "desire to balance between future growth and current success." The past strategies Pachter refers to are likely the company's gamble on new IPs, Mirror's Edge and Dead Space. As for us, we like the more gutsy EA. But we also want Mass Effect 2 ...
Analysts praise free-to-play MMOs, casually insult MMO players
A thoughtful Reuters piece explores a concept that MMO players have themselves been talking about since the economy began to take a downturn. Free to play MMOs, which have been gaining in popularity in the US for years, may be one of the biggest winners of this depressed financial situation. The article explores the benefits and increasingly high quality of online titles that don't require a subscription fee. While South Korea and other Asian countries have long enjoyed a strong connection with inexpensive social online gaming, that message is only just reaching saturation here in the states.What's troubling to this blogger is that amid this very common-sense analysis, one of the most well-known commentators on videogaming sees fit to take a cheap swipe at a cross-section of gamers. Said Michael Pachter, an analyst at Wedbush Morgan: "I don't think (online multiplayer games) get impacted at all, because people who play them are addicts ... Losing their jobs makes them more likely to play because they have more time to play." It's frustrating that one of the few business analysts out there in the business world that understands gaming could be so dismissive of the online gaming genre. We'd like to suggest he do a bit more research in the future on this subject before making snappy statements like that.
Pachter: Xbox 360 a 'gold mine' for Netflix growth
All-knowing, all-powerful games industry analyst, Michael Pachter, sees the partnership between Microsoft and Netflix as a very good thing for the latter's bottom line. GameDaily quotes the silicon seer as calling Xbox Live a "proverbial gold mine" for Netflix.How's that? Pachter estimates that roughly one million Xbox Live Gold members are also Netflix subscribers, and that 200,000 or so of them signed up for Netflix after the debut of the New Xbox Experience in late November, 2008. Pachter's posse of prognosticators at Wedbush Morgan Securities feel that the influx of 360 owners to the video rental service "will continue at super-normal levels for quite some time."In fact, Pachter expects to see "as many as 1 million [XBL Gold members] join as Netflix members in the next year," and furthermore predicts 35% of those who buy a 360 in 2009 will also purchase a Gold membership, hence the proverbial gold mine. Note to Netflix: We suggest you nix any plans to add the Leprechaun films for Instant Queue viewing, lest you wish for the rapscallion to make off with said gold.
Pachter: PS3 will beat 360 with $299 price drop
The December NPD result were not particularly shocking: Xbox 360, a system which is half the price of the PS3, sold twice as many systems as the PS3. What if the PS3 were cheaper? GameDaily asked a number of analysts.Michael Pachter, who has traditionally been the PS3's cheerleader, believes the system will actually outperform the Xbox 360 at a $299 price point. "Should they price at parity with Xbox 360 ($299), I think that PS3 sales would exceed 360 sales, and eventually, they could catch up." There's still a lot of time in this generation -- if PS3 sales improve, it wouldn't take too long to close the gap between the two systems.Jesse Divinich also agrees that Sony could break out of its last place position, although he's less confident. "Sony has a legitimate chance at catching up to the Xbox 360 within the next 2 years, but in terms of overtaking the Xbox 360, that is not likely for some time."
Pachter: $299 PS3 would outsell 360, put Sony back in the game
var digg_url = 'http://digg.com/gaming_news/299_PS3_would_outsell_360_put_Sony_back_in_the_game'; A day after it was tabulated that PlayStation 3 was outsold by Xbox 360 nearly 2-to-1 in December, industry analyst Michael Pachter has told GameDaily he believes Sony would outsell Microsoft if it dropped PS3's price to $299 -- the going rate for the 360 "Pro" system."I think that PS3 will sell well once competitively priced," Pachter said, adding, "Should [Sony] price at parity with Xbox 360 ($299), I think that PS3 sales would exceed 360 sales, and eventually, they could catch up." Sony's cheer squad shouldn't get too charged up yet, though. Pachter also said that, "At present, it doesn't look like that is happening any time soon, so Sony should be prepared to remain in third place until well after they cut price."For its article, GameDaily spoke with several other analysts, all of which echoed the same sentiment: given its current standing and the state of the US economy, PS3 needs to be priced below $300 -- and, if it is, it will eventually overtake Xbox 360 in sales.
Pachter: PS3 price drop in April, 360 to follow, Wii staying put
Video game market prognosticator Michael Pachter of Wedbush Morgan sees a PS3 price-drop in April -- to the tune of $100. Sound familiar? Pachter also believes that the Xbox 360 will be reduced in price shortly thereafter, while the Wii will likely keep its $249 price point for the duration of 2009.In an email advisement reported on by GameDaily, Pachter said that Wedbush Morgan expects "sales of [PS3] will once again begin to grow" following the spring price reduction, something that the firm believes Microsoft will counter "with the feature-laden Pro model likely [coming] down in price to $249 at or before this year's E3 show in June."As for the Wii, Pachter doesn't see Nintendo marking its console down unless it "sees signs that demand is slowing, which means a price cut may not happen until late in the year, if at all." We'll see your year, Pachter, and raise you at least nine more months.
Pachter predicts PS3 price drop to $299 in April
We were so hopeful that PS3 would get a price drop this year. But no. Michael Pachter, analyst at Wedbush Morgan, had to "predict" a PS3 drop in April. Drats, we were looking forward to this one too. Unfortunately, with Pachter's track record, it's pretty good to bet that he'll be wrong."Once the PS3 is at a more affordable price point (we expect a cut to $299 in April), we think that sales of that device will once again begin to grow," he states. However, don't expect Microsoft to take that sitting down. "We expect another cut in price for the Xbox 360, with the feature-laden Pro model likely to come down in price to $249 at or before this year's E3 show in June." Nintendo, however, has no reason to lower its price and will unlikely drop the price of the bestselling Wii.Pachter is right once in a while, so we're optimistic that a price drop will happen. Perhaps it won't be as significant as $100 off, or perhaps it won't happen in April. It'll be interesting to see what Sony chooses in '09: their bottom line, or making a more aggressive attack in the console wars.
Wii sales up 100% over Christmas, says Pachter
A dry but happy piece of business news to start your week off: Wedbush Morgan's all-seeing analyst Michael Pachter reckons Wii sales in the U.S. accelerated dramatically over the holidays, with Christmas figures "up more than 100%."According to Pachter, that translates into "around 3 million" Wiis sold during December. As we previously mentioned, the record for U.S. hardware sales in a single month is 2.7 million, a figure set by the PlayStation 2 in December 2002. When the latest NPD figures are released on January 15, it looks like we'll have a new record-holder. Nintendo obviously didn't get the "recession" memo.
Pachter: October hardware sales to indicate industry's recession resistance
Barring troglodytism or a severe case of denial, it's pretty safe to say that everyone knows the US (and, we hear, global) economy isn't doing too hot at the moment. Although the video game industry clearly isn't recession proof, Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter does think that October's NPD hardware sales numbers (expected later this week) will show how recession resistant it is.Pachter believes that all three consoles are going strong into the holiday season and expects an 18% hardware sales increase over last year. If he's correct, he believes investors should take it as a sign that the video game industry will do better than the average business during the recession. If hardware sales go down in October, Pachter believes the recession would then have infected the industry ... and darkness shall sweep across the lands.
Wii Fit set to outpace Grand Theft Auto IV -- gamer geeks weep, gnash teeth
Unafraid to incite elitist gamer geek unrest, respected video game industry analyst Michael Pachter has supported a prediction by GigaOM that Wii Fit will outsell Grand Theft Auto IV this year. Yeah, you read right: the latest entry into what is arguably the biggest hardcore video game franchise around is gonna get whooped by an exercise tool -- we're not shocked, we're just laughing. GTA4 was dominating at first, but with time interest has waned while Wii Fit and its included Balance Board peripheral have stayed hot despite supply shortages. Nintendo's hardware-focused strategy seems to be working; the Balance Board install base is approaching 12 million, or roughly 30% of all Wii owners. You can bet it'll be put to good use in future games and other, less mainstream applications even after folks have given up on losing weight and resigned themselves once more to lifelong loneliness.
Pachter: Wii extended lead over rivals in September
Even though we're all facing FINANCIAL ARMAGEDDON and will be trading berries and colored stones for drinking water this time next month, gamers are still buying consoles like they're going out of fashion.According to sultan of sales figures Michael Pachter, the Wii and DS each shifted a tidy 600,000 units in North America during September, a respectable rise on sales in August. If the analyst's crystal ball-gazing is correct, that means Wii has added another 40,000 to its lead over the Xbox 360.Pachter's estimations for Nintendo hardware are echoed by new prediction kids on the block EEDAR, who also have Wii and DS at 600k apiece; apparently people are struggling to make ends meet, but not struggling that much. We'll have the super-official NPD figures later this week. If you "support" Nintendo in the console "race," then you probably already know that the company excels at selling stuff. To catch up on just how much stuff, check out the NPD figures from August, July, June, and every other previous month here.
Pachter 'absolutely convinced' Wii HD is coming
Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter believes that Nintendo is preparing the duct tape for a new Wii that will feature high-definition visuals. Speaking in an AFP piece about Wii's bid to appeal to "hardcore" gamers, Pachter insisted that Nintendo needs to overcome the technical gulf that exists between its console and those of rivals."A Wii HD would really position Nintendo well, which is why I'm absolutely convinced there is a Wii HD coming," stated Pachter, who thinks the console needs to shed its "toy for my mom" image. Ouch. If you're currently experiencing déjà vu, that's probably because Pachter made this exact same prediction more than a year ago, when he estimated a Wii upgrade to be "two to three years" away.For the record, we non-analysts at Wii Fanboy still think that's too soon for an upgraded version of a system that continues to fly off shelves -- and developers seem to agree. [Via videogaming247]
Publisher stocks hit by market freefall; analysts optimistic
If you haven't looked out your window today, you might have missed stocks that are falling faster than Chicken Little can blink. Game publishers were not immune, as the NASDAQ (where most publishers are listed) Composite Index fell 199.61 points, or 9.14 percent. As for the individual publishers, Gamespot points out that Electronic Arts saw a 9.16 percent drop to $36 a share. Activision Blizzard was hit hard with a 13.8 percent drop to $14.12 a share. As for the console makers, Sony and Microsoft saw a 5.09 and 8.72 respective percent drop. Overseas, Ubisoft's stock dropped a whopping 21.5% to €45.50 (US $65.37) on the Euronext market.Despite these stock drops, analysts speaking to Gamasutra remain optimistic, with Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter expecting none of the companies to be affected by the lending crisis. Lazard Capital Markets' Colin Sebastian predicts a "cocooning" effect where people flock to games as a cost-efficient form of escapism. In what is surely the most "no duh" prediction, Sebastian expects World of Warcraft to continue serving as an unwavering money stream for Activision Blizzard.[Image Source: Digg]
Pachter talks Wii supply, forecasts August earnings
We all know Michael Pachter has no problem tossing his two pennies around, and his estimations for the month of August might surprise some of you. When it comes to sales, the Wedbush Morgan analyst sees Nintendo making around $100 million on software. As for hardware, it's a different story, as a decline is expected."Because the U.S. has received only around 1/3 of total Wii production to-date, instead of a more normal 40 percent, there has been a severe shortage of Wii supply here that has yet to let up," says Pachter. He thinks that the supposed production increase won't take effect in North America until September.See also: GameStop CEO sees no 'end in sight' for Wii shortages
Analyst: Blame Sony Japan for PSP slump
Das Gamer has posted a thought-provoking piece on the current (gloomy) state of PSP outside of Japan, where game releases on the platform can be heard grinding slowly to a halt. The site spoke with games industry analyst extraordinaire Michael Pachter, of Wedbush Morgan, for his thoughts on the root cause(s) of the situation.Pachter says that the platform's troubles began early on. "PSP struggled to have marquee titles at the beginning, and it's costing it in the long run." The recently announced "PSP Brite" will do little to help things, in his opinion. "Constant tech tweaks and upgrades might work for telephones, but they're not what gamers want," he said, adding "It creates confusion, and leaves many users with older models feeling inadequate."The real problem according to Pachter, however, is general mismanagement of the platform out of Sony Japan, who he says is, "Instructing the US to play catch-up with Microsoft on Xbox Live, step up its online game with Home, offer movie downloads and push the Blu-ray home theater initiative just to begin with. Something had to give. The company has been spreading itself too thin." That "something," according to Pachter, is the PSP. It's a great piece of hardware, sure, but without key software titles – the lack of which at E3, apart from Resistance: Retribution, was staggering – it will continue to run on fumes. But for how long?[Via PSP Fanboy]
Analyst Pachter says 'blame Japan' for Sony's PSP mis-management
Analyst Michael Pachter doesn't see a bright future for the PSP. In fact, he believes that we're nearing the end of the syste's run, due to the paltry release lineup for the remainder of the year. The introduction of the PSP Brite is seen as a sign of weakness, suggesting the redesign will confuse and anger more than excite. "Constant tech tweaks and upgrades might work for telephones, but they're not what gamers want ... it creates confusion, and leaves many users with older models feeling inadequate," Pachter told Das Gamer.Because everyone needs someone to blame, Pachter offers this advice: "Blame Japan," he says. He believes that Sony is being much too ambitious, handling the PS2, PSP and PS3 simultaneously. "[Japan]'s instructing the US to play catch-up with Microsoft on Xbox Live, step up its online game with Home, offer movie downloads and push the Blu-ray home theater initiative just to begin with. Something had to give. The company has been spreading itself too thin."Ironically, PSP's strongest territory is Japan, where new releases continue to be announced on a regular basis. While we'd disagree that PSP is on a deathbed, it's obvious that drastic work needs to be done to change the current state of the PSP.[Thanks, Ronnie D.!]
Ubisoft offering to split (s)hares at annual meeting
Ubisoft is planning on putting a two-for-one stock split to a vote at its September 22 annual meeting, Reuters reports. The French publisher's shares closed at €66.64 last Friday.We checked with analyst extraordinaire Michael Pachter to find out what this stock split means. Poking his head up from charts and graphs – flicking his abacus a few times just for show – he simply said, "It's not really a big deal." Pachter explains that commissions are higher if an investor buys fewer than 100 shares so: 100 shares at €65 requires €6500 in funds, or around $10,000. Since individual investors don't like investing that much in a single stock, by splitting the stock, the cost of 100 shares is cut to around $5000.That explained, Pachter turned his attention with giddy anticipation to the crystal ball he just received from Mystics 'R' Us in Eastern Europe and concluded, "It's really that simple."
