Michael-Pachter
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Pachter: 2008 should maintain 2007's sale momentum
Wedbush Morgan analyst and financial guru Michael Pachter believes that 2008 is going to start strong by using 2007's already vigorous sales momentum. Pachter postulates that the NPD numbers for December will break records and that the "first several months" of '08 having a strong release schedule should continue "double-digit sales growth." Pachter expects to see US publisher stocks continue appreciating as the year gets started and we're guessing he also meant to mention Atari as the big exception in that statement. Gamers could probably keep the industry flying high just trying to get through '07's year-end glut of titles at this point.
DS Fanboy Poll: Only for kids?
Yesterday's New York Times article featuring the heartening words of our own Reggie Fils-Aime also included a few choice tidbits from analyst Michael Pachter, who still seems to think that the Nintendo DS is "a kid's device." Despite the release of a mature game last year, the move toward media and other DS uses in Japan, and the thriving all-ages homebrew community, the DS just can't seem to shake the image. Of course, we turn to you to give us the truth. Our best guess is that we've got readers who run the gamut of ages. Is that the case?%Poll-7733%
Pachter insists Mass Effect coming to PS3
Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter is all but certain the Mass Effect trilogy is going multiplatform. In the latest episode of GameTrailers' Bonus Round (start about three-fourths of the way into the video), Pachter notes that, given the financial expectations Electronic Arts has with its recently-acquired developer, Mass Effect 2 "has to, has to" come to the PlayStation 3 in addition to the Xbox 360.More interesting is what Pachter says after his ME2 assertion. "I wouldn't be shocked if Mass Effect One came to the PS3," he said. We aren't sure the exact details of EA's acquisition, but we do know the original Mass Effect was published by Microsoft Games Studio, leading us to assume it was a safely exclusive title. Could EA port and publish the game on Sony's console? We doubt Microsoft would be willing to let that platinum-selling title go without a fight.
Want a Wii? Wait until April.
It's been more then a year since launch, and demand is still heavily outweighing supply for the Wii. According to Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter, the two won't manage find balance in the U.S. until April. That means that people won't be able to walk into a store and find a healthy supply of Wiis for another four months. Pachter also estimates that the Wii will sell 1.7 million units this December, beating out the Xbox 360 and PS3 despite its limited supply.Need we really bring up the printing money meme again?
Pachter says: DS on top this holiday season
The past few NPD sales charts have shown the Wii (and in one instance, even the Xbox 360) overtaking the Nintendo DS. If you believe in the powers of super-analyst Michael Pachter, though, the DS will reclaim the number one spot in the U.S. this holiday season. The Wii, he thinks, will follow as the second most sold piece of gaming hardware. If Pachter is right, it looks like Nintendo will be sitting pretty for the holidays.We have to wonder, however, if he would predict that the Wii take the top spot if limited supply wasn't an issue.
Pachter predicts primarily PS3 posting profits for GameStop in 2008
If you love guessing games as much as we do, can we recommend the title Analyst Butt Number Awesome Pull Fun Time Special Vol. 1? Michael Pachter, voice of Wedbush Morgan Securities analysts, has come out with another estimate of positive proportions for both Sony and GameStop, resulting from the $399 PS3 SKU. In addition to Halo 3 sales bolstering GameStop's bottom like, Pachter says the new PS3 is expecting to pull in a "20% comp in the January 2008 quarter ..." and the new PS3 "should drive a significant amount of traffic GameStop's way this holiday." Spreading his cards out into April of 2008, Pachter sites big-hitter titles like FFXIII and LittleBigPlanet will assist in continued profits throughout 2008. Interestingly, Pachter is only citing Sony-based material for these continued profits after mentioning a possible 360 price cut to counter the rumored PS2 price cut. It's interesting, as each console has some pretty big titles landing in 2008, but for many gamers, eyes are on the PS3 to deliver a monolithic smattering of quality games.
Analysts playfully debate the impact of 40GB PS3
It's time for another random guessing game by the people who get paid to randomly guess the current status of the video game console market! This time, the collective minds of six companies place their bets on the new 40GB PS3 and if the lowered price will make a dent in sales.All six analysts agreed the new model would create an up-tick in console sales this holiday, but the degree of its effect varied. Michael Pachter said the drop may increase monthly sales by 50%, should a $399 price tag get tacked on. "We should expect sustainable sales of 225,000 units [for non-holiday months]. November is typically double the other months, so expect around 450,000 units, and December is typically double November, so expect around 900,000 units." The other analysts weren't as positive, but admitted there will be a small increase in sales.An interesting discussion was held about whether the new price would deter people from buying a 360 or a Wii. Interestingly enough, most analysts conceded that the 360 would win this holiday battle with their strong lineup along with Halo 3 ... plus if people want a 360, they aren't just gonna change their mind and grab a PS3. As for the Wii, most analysts feel it's a supplementary console for hardcore gamers, but aimed at a broad audience. A lower PS3 should aim for becoming the other part of the equation instead of the 360 (PSWii opposed to Wii60). We don't have much to add, honestly. The analysts, as far as guessing games go, seem to be on the right track in our minds. What are your thoughts?
LittleBigPlanet analyzed as "system mover", weak vs fire
RPG references are fun in subject lines, unless nobody knows what you're talking about and you have to give them a hint in your first sentence. Anyway, Mr. Outspoken Analyst Man, Michael Pachter from Wedbush Morgan has apparently gotten his mitts on LittleBigPlanet and can't stop singing its praises. He feels it will not only be a driving force for PS3 sales, but "after seeing LittleBigPlanet at TGS, I believe it could be a console mover ... The game is really innovative, and I think it adds a family element that is so far missing from both the Xbox 360 and the PS3. If they can accompany that game's launch with a price cut (or a lower priced SKU), I think we'll see a spike in sales." He's in luck, as we're fairly sure we'll get a lower priced SKU at some point before the PS3's fiscal year ends (rumored to be sooner than you think). We've just got to remember, the console hasn't even been out for a year, hardly six months for some users across the world.
Cooking Mama sequel could bring Majesco back from the brink
Known gaming analyst for Wedbush Morgan Securities, Michael Pachter, recently made comments that the sequel to Cooking Mama could actually help Majesco get out from the red and into the black. Pachter states "Majesco may continue to struggle with its low cash levels, we believe that the company is close to returning to profitability, due to improvements in its sales and cost management." Pachter says that the success of the sequel title will help stabilize Majesco's revenues."We are increasingly positive on the story now that the company has been able to stabilize revenues in the $12 – 13 million quarterly range, and believe that Majesco can be slightly profitable at $65 million in annual revenues." Majesco is due to report its third fiscal quarter earnings later on this month on September 11th.
Pachter expects $499 price to remain, even when 60GB PS3s do not
Will they? Won't they? This is worse than Ross and Rachel. Ah, the 90s. Simpler times. Since Thursday, we've been questioning whether the 80GB PS3 will drop to $499 once the 60GB version sells out. We're fairly comfortable with our prediction that it will and Michael Pachter, of Wedbush Morgan, agrees. Pachter states that "the Sony entry level price of $499 is here to stay" and that "there are presently 2 – 3 million 60Gb PS3s produced and not yet sold." This number constitutes up 75% of PS3s in the hands of consumers right now, so the idea of that many selling out before the end of the month, as Reeves suggested, is ridiculous. Pachter's reasoning for why he expects the 80GB model to drop in price is similar to most people's. The 80GB PS3 should cost Sony as much, if not less, to produce than the 60GB model thanks to removal of the Emotion Engine (which, at this point, is the PS3's equivalent of the appendix). Not to mention that Motorstorm is included in the 80GB box, so removing the game will allow the bundle to drop in price by at least $50. Pachter ends his report by saying that he expects "the $499 price point to be maintained until early next year, when the 80Gb model will likely be cut again to $399." We're not so sure about this ourselves, but we'd definitely like to see it happen.
Analyst: Cooking Mama spices up Majesco's forecast
Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter said that publisher Majesco is "close to returning to profitability" and predicts the Cooking Mama series has earned sales of $15 million this quarter. That figure, according to Gamasutra, is above the $13 million consensus estimate for quarterly sales. "We are increasingly positive on shares now that the company has been able to stabilize revenues in the $12 – 13 million quarterly range," he said, "and believe that Majesco can break even at $65 million in annual revenues." Majesco had at one point hit the proverbial rock bottom, spurred by dismal sales of Advent Rising and Joystiq favorite Psychonauts. The publisher is moving into the black through its sales of budget titles (six DS, one Wii and one Xbox 360 titles are coming this quarter), and we fully expect them to keep with what works. Folks who were hoping for a high-budget Cooking Mama Xtreme Beach Cookoff will probably have to wait for at least a few years of profitability.
Pachter: Hey Activision, watch out for Rock Band
Unfortunately, we can't attribute Michael Pachter's warning to Activision as a direct quote, as analysts are forbidden from saying "Hey" and are forced to substitute the informal greeting with "pardon me" or "pay attention to me, please." In commenting on Activision's glowing fiscal report and strong NPD presence to GameDaily BIZ, Pachter draws attention to several challenges Activision faces in the coming months. "All things are not perfect in Activision's world," he says.Pachter predicts that the glaring imperfections (to put it mildly) highlighted by reviewers in the Spider-Man 3 games will curtail sales, and that Call of Duty 4's proposed Iraq setting may prove to leave an equally bad taste in the consumer's mouth. More interestingly, the analyst notes that if Harmonix's EA-published Rock Band is fully playable with just a guitar controller, it will "compete quite favorably with Activision's [Guitar Hero]." He suspects the instrument protagonist genre will remain kind to RedOctane's owner, but adds that "new entrants will impact future growth of the band." Or did he mean brand? Once the dust settles in the battle of the fake bands, will Pachter still stand by his belief that Activision was right to buy RedOctane over Harmonix?
Pachter estimates only 100k PS3's sold in April ... ouch
Wedbush Morgan analyst David Pachter just can't seem to stay out of the spotlight -- he's already been quoted on here today claiming a price cut for the PS3 is due this summer. Now he's estimating console sales for April and it seems like he's decided that April was the worst month for the PS3 so far. Citing a mere 100,000 consoles sold for the US (these are NPD numbers, so it's just the US), this is about 30,000 fewer units than the previous month and way lower than the competition. He estimated 300,000 Wii's sold, 175,000 360's, the usual dominance of the DS and the PS2 selling better than both the PS3 and 360.Software sales are up 24%, he estimates. Chances are this is no thanks to the PS3 since it released zero exclusive titles. He says that upcoming multiplatform games (like those based on movies) will sell the best on the PS2. This is probably due to userbase, plus cost of games for the PS2 seems to have dropped to a $39.99 price point (at least, around Georgia it seems that way). Sales of the PS2 may taper off once people replace the system for a next-gen one (but want to keep their current library), but that's only if the PS3 can show its muscle. In the coming months, that seems very likely.[via GameDaily]
Analyst predicts price cut for the PS3 this summer
var digg_url = 'http://www.digg.com/playstation_3/Analyst_predicts_price_cut_for_the_PS3_this_summer'; Videogame analyst superstar Michael Pachter expects there to be a price cut for the PlayStation 3 by the end of the year, and says that it might even come as early as this summer. GI.biz quotes Pachter, "It is possible that Sony's cost of production for the PS3 has declined to the point that the company may consider a hardware price cut some time this summer, and we may see a price cut for the PS2 before the holidays."As long as Sony's manufacturing costs have dropped to a reasonable rate, I'd heartily encourage Sony to drop the price of the PS3 as soon as possible. It's very clear that people desperately WANT a PS3, but just can't afford it. Dropping it to $500US and then marketing the hell out of the price drop would do wonders for their sales. Just look at what a 30 dollar price drop did for the PSP.
Analyst: Blu-ray, and therefore PS3, will win
Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter has drawn a parallel between the success of a high-definition format and its related game console, believing that Sony will gain an "insurmountable advantage" over Microsoft if movie studios embrace Blu-ray, and vice-versa for Microsoft to "maintain its first mover advantage.""Notwithstanding the efforts of the three console manufacturers to deliver compelling exclusive content, we expect the ultimate outcome of the console wars to be decided by the motion picture studios," he said.Pachter ultimately predicts a close, three-way tie in the market share for this generation of consoles: Sony at 36%, Nintendo at 34% and Microsoft at 30%. In Japan, he said, Ninendo will have a 51% share through 2011 (is Pachter also a time traveler?), Sony with 44% and Microsoft presumably with the remaining 5%.Remember, for every conclusion you may draw from Pachter's report, there are hundreds, if not thousands, of other analysts with contradictory conclusions. Should either high-definition format come out on top, it still has to contend with its big brother, DVD, for some time now, and therefore its impact on the console wars is minimal at best compared to the system's relative price and software.[Via PS3 Fanboy]
Pachter: PlayStation 3 will win next-gen war because of Blu-Ray
The most recent Wedbush Morgan report has been released and in it, Michael Pachter states that he believes that Blu-Ray may actually be the deciding factor in the console wars. At the end of the PS3/Wii/360 generation, he expects Sony to 'win' with a 36% market share, largely due to the strong movie industry support of Blu-Ray.Interestingly though, he also states that this console cycle will essentially be "a dead heat, and each manufacturer will have sufficient market share to generate significant profits." This is great news for videogame fans everywhere, since an evenly divided market will mean that each of the consoles will have a chance to grow and mature as they age. This may be PS3 Fanboy, but I really don't want any of the current consoles to pull a Dreamcast.
Sony will never catch up, but that doesn't matter
Chris Kohler's Game | Life blog has a great Q&A session with Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter. When the analyst was asked about the widening gap between DS and PSP, he had this to say: "I don't think Sony will close the gap, and don't think it is important that they do so. Nintendo has over 20 million loyal GBA owners, and we should expect them to dominate the category that they invented. Sony is late to the handheld game, has tried to approach the market from an older demographic, and is just now trying to beef up more kid-friendly content to appeal to 13-17 year olds. I don't think that the gap matters at all, so long as Sony makes money. I also believe that price elasticity of demand dictates that the lower priced product will sell more units. That's why there are more Fords than Maseratis."While Sony will most likely never be number one this generation, they've gone a long way in changing the handheld marketplace. As long as people continue to buy the system and continue to buy the games, the platform will remain more than viable.[Via AMN]
Take Two shareholders oust CEO
Did you catch the Take Two shareholders meeting yesterday? Don't worry if you missed it, the event turned out to be much less dramatic than we had hoped. However, it was not without some ruffled feathers, as now-former CEO Paul Eibeler was shown the door. Taking his place is Ben Feder, a former executive at News Corp, as acting CEO. Michael Pachter of Wedbush Morgan Securities expresses disappointment that the new management is giving themselves a three- to six-month window. Also, Pachter said of Feder, "he appears to have no meaningful experience managing a large organization, nor does his resume suggest that he has any practical experience in the video game industry."Game Politics has a roundup of more opinions regarding this executive shuffle. Our take, however limited in scope, is that Eibeler was a beacon for bad news. His ousting can only spell an upward trend.
Pachter gets one right; GameStop stock worth buying
When video game analysts are mentioned, most of us who closely follow game news think of Michael Pachter. Like any analyst, their predictions aren't perfect. In fact, many abide by the 51% rule; if you get at least 51% of your predictions right, you're a good analyst. Back in November, Pachter predicted GameStop (GME) to ride a wave of consumer spending on video games. GameStop has released some information proving that buy a good one. GameStop has increased its already strong revenue outlook by $50 million and its Q4 earnings per share from $1.53-$1.59 to $1.58-$1.60. On top of other interesting sales promotions, GameStop certainly enjoyed the console launches and top-selling games like Gears of War immensely. GameStop is still looking like a strong buy with the strong Xbox 360, PS3 and Wii lineups for 2007 along with continuing PS2 support (though not everyone is in consensus on this). Since we're going to make some money off this one, we're going to forgive Pachter for some of his missed predictions.
The mind of a video game analyst
Analysts are the life-blood of investors. We need some kind of opinion of where a company may be going; if we don't get it, we feel uneasy about a company's future. Michael Pachter is one of those people. In an interview with N'Gai Croal, Pachter primarily discusses his bullish Xbox 360 predictions and how they've essentially fallen flat. He cites the bigger impact the lack of HD sets in homes had as well as miscalculated the price-insensitivity of the hardcore crowd. He thinks a simple price cut won't solve the matters (at least until his magical $150 mark is hit). Pachter further states he expects the PS3 to sell at the same rate as the 360 did since launch. Given Pachter's history, we're beginning to wonder if he is on a stretch of bad luck, or shouldn't be listened to at all. He did predict the PS3 would outsell the Wii (then called Revolution) by up-to 60% this year as well as predicted 2006 to be a slow year for gaming (deemed wrong by his future prediction to buy GameStop stock); neither prediction came out close. We guess it is true; analysts are people paid to have an opinion.
