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Rumor Roundup, Episode 5: New MacBook Pros steal the spotlight
A truly titanic hash of dumb Apple rumors permeated the blogosphere this week, including the usual suspects of the "iPad mini" and the Apple HDTV. But mixed with the mire were multiple reports from actual, reputable news organizations like the Wall Street Journal and Reuters regarding the next generation of MacBook Pros. Unfortunately those same usually reputable organizations also fell into the trap of drawing their information from the most notoriously unreliable of sources when discussing the next-gen iPhone, so it's hard to know what to believe. It can be difficult to separate the plausible stories from the B.S. even during the slowest weeks. This past week was not a slow week, with an explosion of at least 20 rumors wafting across the Internet and stinking up the place. Fortunately, there are some telltale signs to separate the rumors worth paying attention to from the ones that are only good for laughs. How do you know, with almost 100 percent certainty, not to take a rumor seriously? 1. Source is an Asian newspaper or "sources in the Asian supply chain" These so-called "sources" are about as reliable as a guy in a trenchcoat trying to sell you wholesale donor organs from a back alley. "I take lungs now, you get gills next week." Since hardly anyone from Cupertino has loose lips these days, a high percentage of rumors get sourced from Asia instead, where some guy who knows a guy who overheard another guy in a cafe says the next iPhone might be gold plated, or it might hunt down and devour your parakeet. Or both. We've got plenty of examples from this week alone. 'Huge' orders for Samsung's flexible OLEDs spark rumors of Apple interest (AppleInsider) Korea Times says the "iPhone Yoga" (not kidding) could have an OLED display. In spite of the fact that Apple has shown zero interest in including this technology in its products. 9to5 Mac, now (rather ironically) trying to rebrand itself as an anti-rumor watchdog, takes pain to pour water on this theory. Rumor: LCD suppliers for 7.85-inch iPad Mini certified with production ready to ramp up (9to5 Mac) Taiwan-based Liberty Times says production of LCD displays for the long-rumored but never seen "iPad mini" is ramping up. The target shipping for this completely imaginary device is supposedly 6 million units. Which is totally coming this year guys. Promise. Even though it failed to surface in 2010 or 2011, 2012 will be the year of the iPad mini! Unless it launches in 2013. Or 20-never. [Note: The sources I've spoken to seem very confident that we'll see a smaller, cheaper iPad this year. We'll see. - Ed.] Apple readies iPhone with bigger screen: sources (Reuters) Oh boy, if Reuters says it, it's a done deal. Right?! Well, maybe it would be, if the organization had better sources than "people familiar with the situation" and "suppliers in Japan and South Korea." But wait! The Wall Street Journal said the same thing! NEW IPHONE RUMOR L@@K!!! Apple Moves Toward Larger iPhone Screens (WSJ) That alleged bastion of "real" news, the Wall Street Journal, says the same thing as Reuters: the next iPhone will have a bigger, 4-inch screen to counter the complete non-threat that Samsung's gargantuan "phablets" represent to Apple's never-ending money stream. So if both the Journal and Reuters are saying the same thing, it must be true, right? Because this 3.5-inch screen is totally holding me back, man. Small problem: Reuters and the Journal are essentially drawing from the same sources. "People familiar with the situation" and suppliers in East Asia. Bloomberg jumped on the bandwagon too, citing three "people with knowledge of the plans." The fact that three big names in business news are reporting the next iPhone will have a 4-inch screen can mean only two things: either the iPhone actually will have a bigger screen, or these big news outlets are simply getting hosed by bad sources... just like they did last year. Of course, simply because these three outlets are big names in the news scene, they get trusted more than others. Even TUAW itself fell for the WSJ's charms on this 4-inch iPhone foofaraw, to which I can only say, "What are you guys paying me for if not to jump on grenades as stupid as this one?" Rumor: Apple in talks to build Russian R&D facility (AppleInsider) Yet another sketchily-sourced story from Russian news outlet Izvestia claimed Apple and several other household-name tech companies were looking to build R&D facilities in Russia. No less than 24 hours after this "story" broke, it was revealed this was a mistranslation, and nobody from Silicon Valley was buying those cool fur hats or stocking up on vodka after all. Collective B.S. detector reading: 9/10. As soon as you find out a story comes from "sources in the Asian supply chain," flip a coin. If it comes up heads, the story is complete nonsense, and you can go about your business. If it comes up tails, the story is still complete nonsense, but this time you have to drink margaritas until you believe it with all your heart. Sources in the Mexican supply chain tell me tequila stocks are running dangerously low because Reuters and the Wall Street Journal's coin tosses both came up tails. 2. Source is DigiTimes I went over this last week, as did Harry McCracken of Time Techland: DigiTimes is as reliable as a Bulgarian subcompact automobile powered entirely by Old English malt liquor. Which is to say, not very reliable at all. In fact, DigiTimes' record is worse than you'd expect to see from random chance. Seriously, I bet I can source more accurate Apple rumors from a Kalahari bushman who's never even heard of an iPhone. Despite that, some "news" outlets still source information from DigiTimes. Please join me in the shaming and shunning. 'iPad mini' to be ultra-thin thanks to new touch technology (BGR) Nonexistent product, ill-defined "new technology," and DigiTimes as the source. The instant I saw the word "DigiTimes" in this story, I wanted to find BGR's server room and set it on fire. Suppliers gearing up for launch of Apple's new MacBooks in June - report (AppleInsider) See, I even kind of believe that the MacBook Pro will get a long-awaited refresh around WWDC, though it might be more because I want to believe because I want a new Mac. But because DigiTimes is telling me exactly what I want to hear, now I have to consign it to the same rubbish bin as all those letters I used to get from Publisher's Clearing House saying I may already be a millionaire. Collective B.S. detector reading: Infinity. Any Apple "news" site that still cites DigiTimes should add at least four paragraphs of disclaimers about how the site has only been right three times in three years. DigiTimes is now doing measurable, real damage to companies other than Apple. Samsung's market value plummeted by almost $10 billion on news that Apple was planning on sourcing components from another supplier. The source for this "report" was DigiTimes. Apparently Samsung's investors haven't learned what the rest of us already know: DigiTimes is more full of crap than the New York City sewer system. 3. Source is an "analyst" I'm kind of curious how one finds employment as an analyst. They seem to do essentially the same job as novelists, but they get paid more and do less research. They also don't seem to fall under the umbrella of the James Frey Effect; when readers find out a novelist fabricated events he claimed to be true, they grab pitchforks and torches. When analysts make up whatever nonsensical B.S. popped into their head after the three-martini breakfast ended, nothing at all happens to them when their predictions inevitably fail to come true. Check these guys out, for instance. iPhone orders 'significantly' reduced as Apple begins prepping for next-gen model (AppleInsider) "Analyst" Shaw Wu says his checks with the Asian supply chain suggest Apple has pared back its orders for the iPhone 4S in anticipation of reduced demand in the quarter preceding the next-gen iPhone's debut. This rumor is a two-for-one: an analyst sourced his story from the Asian supply chain, which means you'll find about as much truth in this rumor as in your cousin's story of that one time he totally saw Sasquatch. Analyst expects MacBook refresh by June, next-gen iPhone by October (AppleInsider) Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster, once upon a time worthy of his own TUAW meme, has steadily lost credibility over the past couple years with his repeated tilting at the windmill of the still-unrealized Apple HDTV. Munster expects refreshes to the MacBook line in June and an iPhone refresh in October. Both of those ideas made perfect sense -- at least until I found out that Gene Munster had the same idea. Now I'm thinking the odds of either update happening dropped significantly just because Munster said they would. Collective B.S. detector reading: 6/10. No matter how seemingly reasonable the claim, any time a story has an "analyst" at its heart it's automatically worthy of nothing more than derision. Over the past several years, analysts have proven only two things: they have no idea how Apple actually works, and their supposed "inside knowledge" of what Apple will do next is worse than worthless. They can't even present a unified front on some topics, such as... Analysts back away from Apple's 'iTV' (BGR) A truly rare breed of analyst in possession of a triple-digit IQ restated what others (including me) have been saying for years: Apple probably won't make much (if any) money off an HDTV, which significantly reduces the chances the company will sell one. Many analysts noted that content providers aren't likely to play nice if Apple introduces its own TV set, and at least one echoed a sentiment I've said several times: HDTVs are big, bulky, and not particularly profitable compared to tiny profit piles like iPhones and iPads. If Apple builds an HDTV, I'll buy one. I'm practically required to at this point. But my disbelief in this product actually existing is so profound that I essentially won't fully buy into its existence until it's actually sitting on top of my entertainment center and blasting 2001: A Space Odyssey into my living room. 4. Headline makes bold assertion, article has no reputable source Declarative sentences in headlines regarding Apple rumors are pretty amusing. Here are some examples. Here's How The New Apple TV Will Work With The iPad (Business Insider) New MacBook Pros will get Samsung's fast 830 series SSD too (9to5 Mac) What a Tall 'iPhone 5' with 4-Inch Display Looks Like (MacRumors) In all three cases we have a bold assertion in the headline with only scant evidence in the actual article. Business Insider claims the Apple HDTV will have an interface similar to TiVo, which is hilarious by itself, but it also says each "major channel" will have its own app. Its source: "an industry source who has spoken with someone who used Apple's TV remote control software on the iPad." In other words, "a guy who knows a guy." 9to5 Mac deduces the next MacBook Pros will have fast SSDs sourced from Samsung, but doesn't offer a shred of evidence in favor of that assertion. I guess we're supposed to just take the site's word for it. MacRumors apparently didn't learn its lesson last year when its expensive-looking Photoshop mockups wound up looking nothing like the iPhone 4S, so the site commissioned yet another set of mockups to show what a 4-inch "iPhone 5" might look like. If you fell into a coma around this time last year, please be assured that a full year has actually passed. You wouldn't know it by the current spate of endlessly repeated rumors like this one, but this is actually the middle of 2012 and not 2011. Collective B.S. detector reading: 10/10. You need better evidence for claims like these than "because we said so" or "we know a guy." The biggest happenstance in the rumor scene this week was the explosion of "details" regarding the next MacBook Pro. As usual, 9to5 Mac is on the scene to claim credit for "confirmation" of months worth of rumors about the upcoming refresh. The rumors all say these next MacBook Pros will be moderately thinner, ditching the internal optical drive in the process, and the next Macs will all feature so-called "Retina Displays" featuring double the resolution of current Macs. In other words, the exact same rumors we've been hearing since late last year. Nothing new, and nothing particularly implausible. B.S. detector reading: A surprisingly low 2/10. Nothing that's been said about these MacBook Pro updates seems particularly outlandish. Apple usually doesn't jealously guard its Mac-related secrets with the same fervour it reserves for the iPhone and iPad, so as long as a rumor isn't sourced from the Asian supply chain, DigiTimes, an "analyst," or some blogger's fever dreams, it's got a halfway decent chance of being true. In this case, I hope it's true. My current Mac is getting a bit long in the tooth. By this time next week, I may well be incarcerated for arson, because the next time I see DigiTimes cited as a reputable source I'm likely to commit some serious acts of pyrotechnic vandalism.* Just in case that doesn't happen, I'll be back again next Monday to throw ice-cold water on the rumor scene once again. *Just kidding, FBI. Please do not fly to New Zealand and arrest me. The weather is too cold for handcuffs right now.
Rumor Roundup, Episode 4: 'Sometimes reliable' DigiTimes (Updated)
See Editor's Note at the bottom of this post. This past week saw appearances from all the usual suspects populating the Apple rumor mill: So-called "analysts" claiming to be able to predict Apple's fortunes a full three years in the future. Booming proclamations from sites claiming to have inside info on unreleased (and probably nonexistent) products. And everyone's favorite source of utterly inaccurate Apple "news": the Asian newspaper DigiTimes. Much more on them later. Apple stock seen hitting $2,000 by the end of 2015 (AppleInsider) Some analyst throws a dart at a wall full of numbers and claims Apple's stock price will nearly quadruple in three and a half years. B.S. detector reading: 10/10. Forecasting the fortunes of a company like Apple more than 40 months into the future is a fool's game, whether you're predicting unprecedented growth or unparalleled DOOOOOOOM. And besides, prevailing "wisdom" among all the other analysts says Apple will be out of business by the end of 2013 anyway, right? Because Apple's "free ride" is over, and either Microsoft or Google is going to take back the keys to the tech kingdom for reasons never adequately, logically, or even sanely explained? GOOGLE AIN'T PLAYING: Will Clone A Key iPhone Feature (Business Insider) GOOGLE'S GOING TO COPY IOS GAME CENTER, at least according to Business Insider. The feature would improve the gaming experience for all seven games available on the Android platform. B.S. detector reading: 3/10. And the only reason it's even that high is because this is coming from Business Insider. From any other source, this would merit a 0/10 reading, because honestly, anyone who points to a feature in iOS and says "Google will copy that" is going to be right eventually, assuming Samsung doesn't beat them to it. (Cue the Android loyalists grousing about Notification Center in iOS 5 "ripping off" the notifications in Google's mobile OS.) Our Source Has Seen The Apple HDTV, Here's What It Looks Like (Cult of Mac) "Sources" claim to have seen the HDTV of myths and legends in person, then go on to parrot every single rumor we've heard about the device over the past year, bringing essentially nothing new to the table. But hey, Cult of Mac has some Photoshopped mockups to go with it, so it must be true! B.S. detector reading: 8/10. Even if Apple is making an HDTV -- something that is a matter of ongoing discussion amongst the TUAW team, but that I personally rate as only slightly more likely than the Earth spontaneously exploding when I type the end of this sentence -- the handful of Apple employees who actually would have seen a prototype aren't all that likely to be leaking those impressions to their blogger buddies. Maybe someone saw something that looked like a new Cinema Display... and maybe what they saw actually was a new Cinema Display. Foxconn plans renewed shift into distribution (China Daily) At the end of a yawn-inducing article about Foxconn's business plans, included almost as an afterthought, are three brief paragraphs claiming Foxconn's chief spilled the beans on the supposedly forthcoming Apple HDTV. He allegedly confirmed that Foxconn is preparing to build the as-yet still mythical device. B.S. detector reading: 10/10. Yeah, I'm sure that a company that's already on thin ice with Apple is going to go blabbing to the public about unreleased and unannounced products. That's exactly how you retain a business relationship with a company possessed of a legendary obsession with secrecy. Why not risk losing a manufacturing contract worth billions of dollars in order to give a BREAKING EXCLUSIVE RUMOR to China Daily. Fortune's Philip Elmer-DeWitt does a good job of dissecting this one, calling it a "soufflé" of a story -- meaning you kick it once or twice and it collapses in on itself. Apple rumored to be in talks to acquire German HDTV maker Loewe (AppleInsider) "Sources" claimed Apple was going to buy a German TV company. Only one thing that could mean, right? Right?! B.S. detector reading: 9/10. Loewe itself said there was "absolutely nothing to" the rumor. Looks like AppleInsider got punk'd. You had to figure something like this would happen once Ashton Kutcher started dressing up like Steve Jobs. Extra credit to you-can't-spell-B.S.-without Business Insider, which managed to wring three or four items out of the Loewe buyout rumor before it was denied and demolished. Unreleased 2012 MacBook Pro and iMac Models Showing Up in Benchmarks (MacRumors) For a change of pace, MacRumors sources from somewhere other than DigiTimes. This time, benchmarks popping up on Geekbench show numbers coming in from unreleased, presumably forthcoming MacBook Pros and iMacs. MR also points this morning to a 9to5Mac story citing Retina displays, USB 3.0, no Ethernet port and a sleeker but not quite Air-esque design for the anticipated pro laptop refresh. Among the presented evidence are strings referencing USB 3 in the recent 10.7.4 update and in betas of 10.8 Mountain Lion; the inclusion of USB 3 (which is natively supported in Intel's Ivy Bridge architecture) means that an external Ethernet dongle could support gigabit speeds rather than the 100 mbit limit of the current MacBook Air Ethernet adapter. B.S. detector reading: 3/10 on average. These kind of "leaks" have happened before, and not just with Macs; unreleased iPhones and iPads have popped up on Geekbench before, too. While MacRumors itself notes these results are easy to fake, they're also consistent with the performance gains expected from Intel's Ivy Bridge architecture. The 9to5 report includes a lot of speculation around the industrial design of the next laptop line, but most of the onboard features mentioned are of a piece with the direction Apple has been heading with the Pro line. Reported AppleCare training points to June Mountain Lion launch (AppleInsider) "Unnamed sources familiar with the matter" claim AppleCare's Europe, Middle East, and Africa division is hiring and training new people. Somehow, for some reason, that apparently means the next version of OS X will launch in June. B.S. detector reading: 8/10. Even assuming the source is correct and AppleCare EMEA is hiring new people, that could mean just about anything. And no reputable source I know of has pointed to a Mountain Lion launch any earlier than July, probably even later than that. iPhone 5 design still not finalized, still no big screen, still no metal back, still on track for October release (iMore) iMore contradicts every other site out there by saying pretty much every rumor about the iPhone is complete bunk. No 4-inch screen, no metal backside, no booze, no women, and absolutely No Stairway. Denied. B.S. detector reading: 7/10. iMore and its sources seem to be leaning toward a theory I've had for awhile: Despite a mountain of increasingly disreputable rumors to the contrary, the next iPhone probably isn't going to look significantly different from the iPhone 4S. That having been said, even if I agree with iMore that doesn't mean I trust the site's unnamed source, particularly over the claim that the iPhone's design hasn't been finalized yet. If the device will indeed launch in October, it seems very unlikely that the hardware design is still in flux. 'iPhone 5' Headphone Jack and Earpiece Component Surfaces (MacRumors) The same source that gave us classic hits like "slightly different Home button" and "barely changed micro-SIM tray" brings us its latest chart-topping iPhone part: weirdly altered headphone jack cable. B.S. detector reading: 7/10. At this point, three different parts leaks from the same source is looking like a simplistic con to draw attention to the site's parts reselling business. This newest "leak" is a bit on the outlandish side, as the supposed new cable looks like an absolute mess next to the cable in the iPhone 4S. 7-inch iPad on track for October 2012 release, $200 to $250 price (iMore) The 7-inch iPad will supposedly launch in October, featuring a screen the same 2048 x 1536 resolution as the current iPad (3). It'll have an 8 GB capacity and start at $200 -- the same price as the current 8 GB iPod touch. B.S. detector reading: 10/10* (or 5/10 -- See note below). A product that's been rumored but never seen for almost two years, the "iPad mini" would serve no other purpose than to cannibalise the existing iPad line. Even if you assume that making a 2048 x 1536 7-inch screen is technically feasible, saying Apple could sell such a device for the current asking price of the iPod touch is downright laughable. The iPad mini already exists. It's called an iPod touch. Those who claim Apple wants to address the mid-sized market the Kindle Fire took by storm in late 2011 seem to be conveniently ignoring the fact that Kindle Fire sales went down the tubes in early 2012. As for a lower-priced option to address budget-minded consumers, that already exists too. It's called an iPad 2. Maybe you've heard of it. It's just like the new iPad, only it's $100 cheaper and its screen looks like it's been smeared with Vaseline when you put it next to the new iPad. *Editor's Note: After some consideration I'm disagreeing with Chris on this one and saying there's some chance of a 7-inch iPad. Why? The Nook/Kindle form factor has proven it has a market, and if Apple had a product in-between the touch and the iPad, it would obliterate Android in that category not unlike how the iPod soared to the top of the MP3 market. As an entry-level "halo effect" device on the cheap, such a tablet need not be called an iPad, even. - Victor Agreda, Jr. Report Claims 7-Inch iPad in August, New iPhone in September, New 10-Inch iPad by End of Year (MacRumors) DigiTimes claims blah blah blah yadda yadda. I'd tell you more, but I immediately stopped reading when I saw the word "DigiTimes." B.S. detector reading: Off-scale high due to use of DigiTimes as a source. On the subject of the 7-inch iPad itself, I remember the first time I heard of this still-fictitious device: an August 2010 "report" from iLounge, complete with Photoshop mockup of course. Let's look at the claims from that long-ago report: New iPod nano, new iPod touch, 1.7" touchscreen replacement for iPod shuffle, and a shrunken 3" touchscreen for the iPod touch. Partial credit for predicting a new iPod nano, but credit taken away for not realizing it was the same thing as the touchscreen "replacement" for the shuffle (which still lives on). Partial credit for predicting a new iPod touch, but credit taken away for the spurious shrunken screen rumor. Total points awarded: 0. A 7" iPad in late 2010 or early 2011. Nope. Didn't happen. Fifth-generation iPhone release bumped up to early 2011. Nope. Silicone-only iPhone bumpers. Nope. So, the first time we heard of the 7" iPad, it was included in a rumor blitz from iLounge where the vast majority of the rumored items never came true. In nearly two years since then, the "iPad mini" is still nowhere to be found, and most of the subsequent rumors about it have come from either from DigiTimes or "analysts" with no more clue about Apple's plans than my cat. I'm sure Apple has been technologically capable of making an iPad mini for years. All the company lacks is the poor business sense to actually release one. Rumor: Apple planning to launch $799 MacBook Air in Q3 2012 (AppleInsider) Apple plans to "aggressively combat" ultrabooks -- that special category of notebook that PC makers dreamed up specifically so they could try to copy the MacBook Air -- by, um... selling a budget-priced MacBook Air. Because as anyone who's followed Apple for the past 15 years knows, that is totally something Apple would do. (ALERT: Sarcasm approaching critical mass!) And the source of this report is, of course, "sometimes reliable DigiTimes." Those are AppleInsider's words, not mine. I've tried to find a more appropriate adjective for DigiTimes than "sometimes reliable," but so far all I've come up with is "standup philosophers DigiTimes." (Video NSFW if your boss is uncomfortable with one of the Golden Girls repeatedly saying something that rhymes with bullspit.) B.S. detector reading: Once again, off-scale high due to use of DigiTimes as a source. Apple rumor sites, it's time for an intervention. Or, at the very least, a scorecard. DigiTimes is the scourge of the Apple rumor scene. It's been funny to watch sites like MacRumors, AppleInsider, BGR, and 9to5 Mac take DigiTimes less and less seriously over the years as the site's record has gotten worse and worse. These sites still breathlessly report every last bit of information effluent that drips out of DigiTimes' rumor sewers, but the way they refer to DigiTimes has shifted over time. It started with "DigiTimes has given reliable information before," then shifted to "DigiTimes has been reliable in the past." Then it became "DigiTimes has been hit-or-miss lately," then "occasionally reliable." Now we've reached the point of "sometimes reliable DigiTimes." What's next? "Archaeologically reliable" DigiTimes? "Fossil records indicate DigiTimes provided reliable information during the Cretaceous, prior to the asteroid impact that wiped out the dinosaurs and the site's legitimacy." I decided to find out just how "reliable" DigiTimes has been. My study was thoroughly unscientific, though still performed with far more rigor than anything that's come from that site. I simply did a "site:www.macrumors.com digitimes" search on Google and went through the first 7 or 8 pages of articles I found. MacRumors posts a story pretty much every time someone at DigiTimes mutters something that vaguely sounds like "Apple," so this seemed like a good way to get some traction. I didn't rate rumors produced in the past two months -- I figure I'll give DigiTimes more time to be wrong -- so I started with rumors in early March of 2012, then worked backward. Here's a rundown of the true or at least partially true reports MacRumors has printed in the past few years with DigiTimes as a source. iPad 3 Display Supply Constraints to Result in Early Shortages? (March 2012: 100% true) Display Panel Shipment Plans Suggest Apple Will Offer iPad 2 Alongside iPad 3 (January 2012: 100% true) iPad 3 Display Shipments Nearing 3 Million Units with Assembly Set for January Start (November 2011: Mostly true, but mentions B.S. about a 7-inch iPad) Apple LTE-enabled iPhone Due in 2012, iPhone 4S Preparations for September 2011 (May 2011: Mostly true, and remarkably, one of the first sites to correctly refer to it as the iPhone 4S rather than iPhone 5) iMac and MacBook Pro Upgrades in First Half of 2011? (December 2010: 100% true, but talk about your all-time easy calls) Cortex A9-Based iPads, Verizon iPhone, iOS-Based Apple TV Set for 1Q 2011 Launch? (August 2010: 2/3 true. They got the CPU and launch date for the Apple TV wrong, and mentioned some 7-inch iPad B.S.) DigiTimes Claims Display Improvements in Next-Gen iPhone (May 2010: 100% true, but multiple sources were claiming the same thing) Next-Generation iPhone Set to Carry 5-Megapixel Camera? (December 2009: 100% true) So that's roughly 7 2/3 stories in the past few years. Not a bad record... until you look at all the things DigiTimes has said over the years that have been, as the kids in the UK say, utter bollocks. And this is far from a comprehensive list. I only made it through the first several pages of a Google search before I had to step away from my Mac and find a martini to chase the stupid away. 8 GB iPad 2 Coming Alongside 16 GB and 32 GB iPad 3 Next Week? (February 2012) Intel Delaying Mass Availability of Ivy Bridge Processors Until 'After June'? (February 2012) 'iPad 4' Headed for October Launch with iPad 3 as Interim Upgrade? (January 2012) Pegatron to Become Apple's Primary iPad Manufacturing Partner? (January 2012) Apple to Use IGZO Displays to Achieve a Thinner Lower-Power iPad 3? (December 2011) Mid-Range and High-End iPad 3 Launching at iWorld Seems Unlikely (December 2011) Thunderbolt Coming to PCs in April 2012 (December 2011) Rumors of a 7.85-Inch 'iPad Mini' Revived (Again) for Late 2012 (December 2011) Suppliers to Begin Preparing 32" and 37" Apple Television Sets in Early 2012? ((December 2011) Updated MacBook Air Line with New 15-Inch Model Coming in 1Q 2012? (November 2011) Apple Cutting Fourth Quarter iPhone Component Orders? (November 2011) Apple's 15" Ultra-Thin Notebook Due in March 2012 (November 2011) Next iPad Coming March, But "Real iPad 3" Not Until Q3 2012? (November 2011) iPhone 5 with Metal Chassis and Less Than 4" Screen? (August 2011) Apple Increasing iPhone Production with iPhone 5 Ramp-Up (August 2011: This one is especially laughable, as DigiTimes' predicted iPhone sales figures were off by more than ten million units) Apple Orders 15 Million iPhone 5s, Shipping Begins in September (July 2011) iPhone 5 to Have a Dual LED Flash? (June 2011) Apple Ramping Up New MacBook Air Production in July (June 2011: DigiTimes's claim of 8 million MacBook Air units was only off by, oh, 5 or 6 million) iPhone 5 to Use a 4-Inch Screen? (February 2011) 5.6-Inch and 7-Inch OLED iPad Models Coming in Q4 2010? (July 2010) Touch Panels for Apple Netbook Ordered? (July 2009) And one from the vaults: DigiTimes Reports PowerBook G5 and iBook G5 Contracts (January 2005) For every one report DigiTimes gets right, you get almost three more that are complete garbage. "Reliable" and "DigiTimes" are essentially antonyms at this point, and any site that still regularly relies on them as a source has absolutely no credibility. That's it for this week's rumors. Next week, we'll find out the 7-inch iPad mini was actually released long ago... it was inside our hearts all along. Editor's Note: Just as this post went live, we spotted Harry McCracken's thorough processing of DigiTimes's track record on rumors. Chris's deep dive into the past outcomes of DigiTimes reporting at the end of this post is similar by coincidence, not by design.
Rumor Roundup, Episode 3: Your parts are leaking again
As expected, last week was a slow one for actual Apple news. Equally as expected, rumors of increasingly dubious parentage were shoehorned into various sites' RSS feeds to pad out the news cycle. In the old days this kind of "news" might have been used to line the bottoms of bird cages, but today all anyone does with birds is launch them at pigs with a slingshot. Claimed iPhone 5 SIM Card Tray Appears Identical to iPhone 4S (MacRumors) Just when you thought iPhone parts leaks couldn't get more yawn-inducing than slightly different Home buttons, MacRumors lets us know that parts supplier SW-BOX.com supposedly got its hands on some "iPhone 5" SIM trays. These new SIM trays are almost identical to those in the iPhone 4 and 4S, suggesting the next iPhone won't be much different in design. WhooOOOOoooo! Tk, tk, tk. That was the sound of the wind blowing through a ghost town and a tumbleweed blowing by. B.S. detector reading: 9/10. Parts supplier no one's heard of? Check. Parts "leaking" to the public over five months away from the time the next iPhone's likely to launch? Check. This rumor isn't just clutching at straws, it's dreaming about clutching at straws. Liquidmetal Inventor: Apple Will Use It In A 'Breakthrough Product' (Business Insider) Business Insider takes a break from its usual schtick of behaving like the National Enquirer of the tech world and does an actual interview with a verifiable human being. If you're at all familiar with Business Insider's usual attitude toward all things Apple, you're probably as confused as I was. Anyway, some guy named Atakan Peker claims Apple is a long way off from using Liquidmetal in large scale deployment on any of its products. B.S. detector reading: 0/10. Peker ought to know a little bit about how well Liquidmetal can scale, because he helped invent the stuff. He thinks it will take three to five years and hundreds of millions of dollars in investments and R&D before Liquidmetal can be widely deployed. All this means is for the next couple years, any rumor that proclaims "all-Liquidmetal iPhone is coming out soon" is going to max out the B.S. detector. Yes, Apple is still working on haptics for touch devices (9to5 Mac) Remember how the night before the newest iPad launched, the internet went bananas for a few hours and thought the device would debut with haptic feedback? Remember how, predictably, that didn't happen? Oh, how we laughed. It was a simpler time. But 9to5 Mac is certain that recently unearthed patents mean Apple is still on the Haptic Trail. Would you like to ford Speculation River, or caulk the iPad and float it across? B.S. detector reading: 8/10. I've been following Apple long enough to know that more than half the stuff it patents never shows up on store shelves. Apple may still be considering implementing such functionality in future devices... or it may have decided to abandon that route and go a different way. A patent doesn't offer proof of either decision. Apple's 'iTV' might not launch until 2014 (BGR) An analyst from JP Morgan spins the Wheel of Fortune and decides the Apple HDTV isn't coming until 2014. I'd like to solve the puzzle: "Making it up as I go." B.S. detector reading: 7/10 -- and it's only that low because I agree the "iTV" probably isn't coming before 2014. But I only say that because, for reasons I discussed last week, I don't believe Apple is ever launching its own HDTV. Having recently gone through the head-spinning and utterly confounding experience of buying a new HDTV myself, I agree it's an industry ripe for disruption. But I'm also more convinced than ever that it's an industry Apple's better off leaving to the other suckers. Let Samsung, Sony, LG, Panasonic, and the rest of them slug it out over who gets to sell TVs to people who are just looking for the cheapest way to watch Game of Thrones without having to squint to tell the difference between Gruff Old Knight No. 4 and Gruff Old Knight No. 7. Apple television not expected to 'break the bundle' from cable (AppleInsider) AppleInsider looked at the same JP Morgan analyst's thoughts on the proposed Apple HDTV and focused on his remarks regarding the "disruption" the device might bring to the industry. The headline kind of spoils it; JP Morgan's analysts don't think wild-eyed claims that the Apple HDTV will finally save us from the tyranny of cable providers hold much water. B.S. detector reading: 5/10. The film, TV, and cable industries saw what happened to the music industry in the last decade -- Apple slowly upended the entire market and now holds almost unprecedented influence over how people buy and listen to music. Cable companies will do absolutely anything they can to stop that from happening to them -- no matter how many of their customers they tick off in the process -- so an iTunes-centric HDTV is probably going to send content owners scrambling to divorce themselves from Apple as quickly as they can. I'm pretty sure the only reason these media companies even tolerate the likes of the current Apple TV box is that it's a relatively low seller, a tiny blip in the marketplace. If Apple launches what amounts to the iPhone of HDTVs, expect those same companies to "turn traitor" before Tim Cook leaves the keynote stage. The New iPhone: Size, Screen + New Connector (Plus iPod touch) (iLounge) The next iPhone will supposedly have a 4" screen and will be about 10 millimeters taller and 2 millimeters thinner. (That popping sound you heard just now was someone having an aneurysm from me mixing Imperial and metric units in one sentence.) The dock connector will allegedly be a redesigned, smaller port. B.S. detector reading: 7/10. Lots of sites re-reported iLounge's crystal ball gazing like it was brought down from the summit of Mount Sinai, simply because some of iLounge's past guesses have been accurate in the past. All this iLounge post really did, though, was collect several months worth of rumors in one spot and slap some halfway-decently Photoshopped pics on it. You know what I think would be absolutely hilarious? If the next iPhone looks exactly the same as the last two. Same screen size, same form factor, just with a slightly faster CPU/GPU. Apple is already selling around 4.5 iPhones every second (not an exaggeration), but still everyone seems convinced the company needs to do some radical redesign if it wants to stay ahead of its competitors. I'm pretty sure the "disappointing" sales of the iPhone 4S and iPad (3) are proof enough that Apple no longer needs to change things just for the sake of changing them -- if it ever did. Apple expected to expand store-within-store presence at Walmart, Target (AppleInsider) Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster walked through an Apple "mini-store" at a Target. After browsing the shelves and chatting with a Target salesperson, he somehow became convinced Apple will widely deploy these mini-stores in both Target and Walmart locations across the United States. B.S. detector reading: 5/10. I'll give Munster credit for actually doing some on-scene investigating (that's how I used to refer to my Target shopping trips, anyway). But it's pretty much equivalent to me eating at my local Burger Fuel and saying, "Man, the Bastard Burger sure is tasty. You know who'd love this thing? Drunk college kids. Headline: Burger Fuel to expand from New Zealand to Ivy League colleges across the northeastern US." iPad tablet market share will dip to 50% by 2017, study says (AppleInsider) NPD claims the iPad will account for only half the tablet market five years from now. As evidence, NPD researchers waved their hands over a pile of gnawed chicken drumsticks scattered on the NPD's throne room floor and proclaimed, "THE BONES HAVE SPOKEN." B.S. detector reading: 10/10. This survey is even worse than one I saw last week, which claimed essentially the same thing would happen in 2016. Predicting what any segment of the tech market will look like five years from now is like forecasting the 2096 US Presidential elections. (I'm voting for Kodos.) How Apple will become a mobile carrier (GigaOM) Famed blues guitarist "strategic advisor" Whitey Bluestein claims Apple is about to sell mobile wireless services directly to its iPad and iPhone customers. He then laid down an astonishingly funkadelic bass groove that I've been humming all week long, to the annoyance of everyone around me. B.S. detector reading: KABOOM! Wow, good thing I keep a backup detector in my desk, because the first one is toast. "Apple will strike wholesale deals with several mobile operators so that Apple can provide wireless service directly to its customers, as Apple Mobile," Bluestein claims, ignoring three different Apple shades of Apple reality in one Apple sentence. Look, there's no question that dealing with wireless service providers is one of the worst parts of owning an iPhone or 3G iPad. Imagine that owning a car meant it ran out of gas at random and without warning, or that it couldn't drive to certain areas of the country in the first place, and even with those irritating limitations you endured monthly chain-whip floggings at the gas station to sustain the privilege of driving your car. AT&T in particular has earned every last bit of enmity its customers (and former customers) feel toward it. Recent remarks from its CEO suggest the company's only regret is it didn't figure out how to overcharge for data services sooner than it did. "You lie awake at night worrying about what is that which will disrupt your business model [...] If you're using iMessage, you're not using one of our messaging services, right? That's disruptive to our messaging revenue stream." These are actual words AT&T's CEO said, presumably right before doing donuts in his Ferrari in a parking lot that used to be an Indian burial ground. I don't know about you, but I'm finding it difficult to sympathise with a company that charges about (back of the envelope math) $1.60 per kilobyte for data related to sending SMS texts. But does that mean Apple's going to swoop in and rescue its users from these digital highwaymen? Not a chance. Let's dismantle Whitey's groovetastic bass line phrase by phrase. "Apple will strike wholesale deals with several mobile operators" -BZZT! Nope. Mobile operators are already milking more money directly from their customers than Apple's going to be willing to throw at the likes of AT&T and Verizon. And even the dumbest of wireless providers still has to be smart enough to know that letting Apple wedge itself between them and iPhone users would be a last, well-deserved nail in the coffin of companies that like to pretend they're anything other than digital plumbers. "Apple can provide wireless service directly to its customers" -BZZT! Name one possible benefit to Apple if it does this. The company would have to hire loads of support people to answer (and endure) the usual questions and tirades from customers dissatisfied with their wireless service. Instead of being able to do what it's done for the past five years -- shrug and deflect blame for terrible service on the carriers, where it usually belongs -- Apple would have to shoulder the burden (and cost) associated with users bellowing into their iPhones in the scarce seconds between dropped calls. A deal the carriers would never go for, coupled with one of the top five worst strategic decisions Apple could possibly make? Sure, why not? Other than being the dumbest idea I've heard in months, I don't see any downsides! That's it for the rumors this week. By this time next Monday, we'll know the precise dimensions of the next iPhone's mute switch, the launch date for Apple's VHS/DVD combo player, and exactly how much of the tablet market the iPad will hold in 2018.
Rumor Roundup Episode 2: Is Apple doomed or not? Make up your minds!
This past week was relatively quiet as far as Apple-related rumors go. In the wake of Apple's latest quarterly earnings release, it seems there was enough real news to keep everyone occupied that Apple "analysts" didn't have to go around making things up off the tops of their heads like they usually do. That's not to say that some analysts didn't provide us with plenty of fresh manure this past week, because they most certainly did. Rumor: iPhoto '12 for Mac coming this summer with features from iOS (AppleInsider) "Anonymous sources" spoke with Dutch website Apple Weetjes and claimed that Jony Ive will be featured on cereal boxes starting this summer. Actually, the real claim is that iPhoto '12 will be released this summer with several design cues taken from the recently released iOS version of iPhoto. B.S. detector reading: 9/10. Whenever a non-U.S. website most of the rest of us have never heard of comes out with a rumor like this, the smart money is on it being completely made up. While I wouldn't be surprised to see the next version of iPhoto continue the blending of OS X and iOS design elements, rumor sites are notoriously bad at predicting Apple's software release schedules. As one example, over the past three years I've lost track of how many times people have tried to convince us that iWork updates were right around the corner. Meanwhile, the current version of OS X's iWork suite is older than any of the iPhone models Apple sells today. Apple courts EPIX for upcoming TV: sources (Reuters) This one starts out believable and seemingly well-sourced, and Reuters is usually reputable. Apple has supposedly been in negotiations with EPIX to get streaming rights for films owned by Lionsgate, MGM, and Paramount. That part I believe. But... B.S. detector reading: 7/10. Reuters (or its source) goes off the rails when it claims this content negotiation deal has something to do with Apple's long-rumored (but never seen outside an analyst's fever dreams) HDTV set. The source claims that while the major focus of the proposed deal was the Apple TV, it could also apply to "upcoming devices that stream content" -- which is where either Reuters or its source breaks out the Jump to Conclusions Mat and assumes that means an Apple HDTV. Loads of people have assumed Apple will build an HDTV, citing "evidence" that ranges from mildly plausible to more ridiculously contrived than the Loch Ness Monster photos. Far fewer people have actually sat down and thought about how an HDTV would actually benefit Apple. We're talking about a big, heavy product that's expensive to make, expensive to ship, expensive to store, and has razor-thin profit margins. Plus, people don't replace their HDTVs every year, or even every few years. No matter how "cool" people think an Apple-branded HDTV might be, I haven't seen one person make a convincing argument for how such a device could actually make Apple money. Until that happens, any whisper of an Apple HDTV in any rumor earns an automatic 7/10 reading from the B.S. detector. Surprisingly, that was pretty much it for Apple product rumors this week. But the tea leaf reading doesn't stop at the stuff Apple builds, especially around the turn of the financial quarter. This week, the rumormongers mostly busied themselves with predicting Apple's unrivalled ascendancy or its impending doom -- sometimes both at the same time, as we'll see. Analyst now says Apple will be a $1 trillion company...next year (9to5 Mac) An analyst from Topeka Capital Markets ("World Famous... in Topeka!") claims Apple will hit a market cap of -- pinky to lip -- one trillion dollars sometime in 2013. For reference, as of this writing Apple's market cap stands at just under $564 billion. B.S. detector reading: 8/10. Apple's past two financial quarters have been its best ever by several metrics, but over the past five months its market cap has grown by "only" $100 billion. For Apple to almost double its worth as a company over the next year or so would require financial performance that even Apple itself doesn't expect to turn in; the company's guidance for the next financial quarter was so conservative that analysts sounded more than a little bit freaked out during its last conference call. I wouldn't be surprised to see Apple top the trillion dollar mark one of these years, but I'm not betting on 2013. Apple iPad to dominate tablet market through 2016 (BGR) Forrester Research looked into its crystal ball and decided the iPad will rule the tablet market for at least the next four years. Supposedly 375 million tablets will be sold in 2016, and 199 million of those will be iPads. B.S. detector reading: 10/10. Predicting what will happen in the tech sector is like predicting the weather. The farther out your forecast, the greater the probability you're just making it up as you go along. I don't trust my local weather forecast past 72 hours, and I definitely don't trust tech predictions beyond 12 months -- most of these guys are the same jokers who predicted the iPad would be an epic flop, after all. While the iPad doesn't really have any credible competition now, who knows if that will stay true four or five years down the road? And another thing: can all the factories in China even crank out almost 200 million iPads in a single year? They're having enough trouble keeping up with current demand. The biggest limiting factor on the iPad's success today is suppliers' ability to keep up with demand; that's why Apple "only" sold 12 million of them last quarter. Apple's going to need the equivalent of 5.5 more Foxconns to make 200 million iPads a year. I just hope that doesn't mean we end up with 5.5 more Mike Daiseys, too. And now, for the dumbest Apple analysis of the week: Apple = Sony (Forrester Research) Forrester Research CEO George Colony trots out a familiar trope, that Apple is nothing without Jobs. Over the past few years this has become just as worn out and overused as any of the other deadly clichés analysts tend to substitute for rational thought whenever Apple's involved, but it's only gotten worse since last October. "Apple will decline in the post Steve Jobs era," Colony says. "Apple's momentum will carry it for 24-48 months." B.S. detector reading: Off-scale high for several billion reasons. The first several billion reasons all have George Washington's face on them. These first two financial quarters following Steve Jobs's unfortunate passing have been the most successful in Apple's history. The only company that's ever turned in better performance than Apple's past two fiscal quarters is Exxon-Mobil, a company that sells a product which is the life's blood of modern civilization. The world needs oil to function. It doesn't need iPhones or iPads, yet one of the biggest problems facing Apple today is it quite literally has more money than it knows what to do with. "Um, a stockholder dividend, I guess," is the best idea the company came up with (but still a better idea than "Buy Twitter"). Yet for some reason, guys like George Colony have no faith in Tim Cook or the rest of Apple's management team -- all of them, it must be said, hand-picked by Steve Jobs, and all of them running the company de facto over the past few years as Jobs struggled with his medical issues. But here's the most astonishing part of George Colony's prediction of Apple's "decline": it contradicts his own company's research. Remember about eight paragraphs back, when we found out Forrester Research said the iPad would dominate the tablet market for the next five years? That in 2016, Apple would be selling almost six times as many iPads as it does today? Apparently Forrester Research's own CEO didn't bother to read that report, because he's claiming almost the exact opposite of what his company has "researched" regarding Apple's future performance. If Forrester's own CEO doesn't take his company's research seriously, why should anyone else? That's it for this week's rumors and "analysis" about the world's most successful corporation. The week ahead looks slow for real news, so it's a safe bet we'll be hearing lots more about the iPad mini, Apple HDTV, and more products every bit as mythical as Santa Claus, the Easter Bunny, and "sources in the Asian supply chain."
Rumor Roundup, Episode 1: 'iPhone 5' Home button and more nonsense
Welcome to the inaugural session of TUAW's weekly Rumor Roundup. Anyone who follows Apple-related news long enough soon discovers that an entire cottage industry of "analysts" has sprung up in the company's wake. These guys come out of nowhere claiming to have inside information on what's soon coming out of the secret underground labs beneath Cupertino -- and their predictions are almost invariably wrong. Sometimes laughably so. Over the years we've swung between reporting these rumors with a straight face, just like many other sites, or not reporting on them at all. The first road leads to embarrassment; I'll never forgive myself for taking DigiTimes seriously on anything, ever. The second road leads to dozens of emails every week from readers confused about why we haven't reported on something that's all over the other sites they read. That's what this Rumor Roundup is all about. These are the stories we might have let slip through the cracks before, simply because we considered them so packed solid with B.S. that they just weren't worth the effort. Most of the stories that show up in the Rumor Roundup still aren't good for much other than pointing at them and laughing -- and there will be lots of that sort of thing. On to the rumors. Fire up your B.S. detectors, because this past week has been chock full of the usual mythical suspects (none of which, it must be stressed, have ever come within five time zones of being confirmed to exist): the Apple HDTV, iPad mini, iPhone nano, and the super-thin Liquidmetal T-1000 iPhone Grande with 4-inch holographic Tupac screen. If you've been paying attention, these are the same nonexistent products that dominated the rumor scene for all of 2011. Here we are in mid-2012, still with no indication that any of these products exist at all. And does it strike anyone else as supremely unimaginative that most of these rumors revolve around size? A smaller iPhone -- no wait, a bigger one! And a smaller iPad! And a great big TV! Yawn. Rumors of an iPad mini swirl in China (Kotaku) I love the "swirl" reference in the headline, because it reminds me of a commode -- which is probably where this rumor came from. A Chinese site I guarantee you've never heard of claims that the long-rumored iPad mini will launch in the third quarter of this year, with prices ranging from US$249 to $299. B.S. detector reading: 9/10. "Leaks" like this from Asian sites are almost always wrong, and this one is made even more unbelievable by the fact that those prices are in the neighborhood of what Apple charges for the mid- and high-end iPod touch models. As for the iPad mini itself, we've heard so many conflicting rumors about this thing that by now the only source you should believe is Tim Cook's hands holding one onstage. Release of 'iPad mini' from Apple viewed as 'question of when, not if' (AppleInsider) This has all the hallmarks of a terrible and ultimately worthless rumor. Some analyst you've never heard of from some firm you've also never heard of makes a bold claim without a shred of evidence, and it's one he can easily back out of if it never comes true. Which it won't. B.S. detector reading: 10/10. This is a classic example of a rumor that manages to say absolutely nothing, but in the most excited tones possible. "Apple might do this! Maybe! Or it might not! I dunno, but either way I get paid, suckers." Apple job opening hints at continued 3D technology in iOS (9to5 Mac) A job posting on Apple's site could point to integration of 3D features in a future iPhone. Or not, as 9to5 Mac itself points out. B.S. detector reading: 6/10. Apple is obviously looking for someone knowledgable in 3D tech, but extrapolating what that means for future products is pretty much impossible. And can't the 3D fad just die already? Please? Apple working on new power management technology for future Macs (AppleInsider) Another story sourced from an Apple job posting. This one makes the bold claim that Apple is investigating ways of improving power management and battery life in its Macs. B.S. detector reading: 0/10. I mean, come on -- imagine the exact opposite scenario. "Apple poaches Flash Player engineers, investigates ways to make its laptops run batteries flat in five minutes." Apple plots wireless server hubs at Genius Bars for users to temporarily store, sync content for iOS device replacements (9to5 Mac) According to "sources," Apple is testing ways of mirroring iOS device backups from iCloud onto in-store servers to streamline the process of exchanging faulty devices at Genius Bars. The system reportedly won't go into wide deployment until late 2013. B.S. detector reading: 5/10. While this does sound like something Apple could plausibly want to implement, the fact that this unnamed source supposedly leaked info from within Apple's strictly guarded citadel is a red flag. So is the deployment date, which is so far off that we could easily forget all about it if this never actually happens. Apple predicted to discontinue 17-inch MacBook Pro (Mac Rumors) Some analyst says the 17-inch MacBook Pro isn't selling very well, so Apple's going to give it the axe. Of course, Apple doesn't break down its sales numbers by individual models, so this "analysis" is at best an educated guess. At worst, it's exactly like hundreds of other analyst predictions regarding Apple: completely uneducated, wild-ass speculation. B.S. detector reading: 10/10. The Apple of the past 10 years only discontinues product lines under two circumstances: when it has something better as a replacement (iPod mini --> iPod nano), or when sales are just tanking hard (Xserve). With product margins as high as those Apple gets from its Macs, sales have to get pretty freaking low before Apple stops making money on them; the Mac Pro is still hanging around even though Apple sells more iPhones in one day than the number of Mac Pros it'll sell in a year. Apple's 'iTV' to dominate high-end TV market while other vendors are in 'crisis mode' (BGR) A nonexistent product will dominate an industry Apple's shown no sign of taking seriously? Tell me more! What's your source? A consumer survey and some analysts? Never mind. Move along, nothing to see here, no matter what brand of TV it's on. B.S. detector reading: 8/10. When even 9to5 Mac is starting to disbelieve the Apple HDTV fairy tale, things aren't looking good for this perennial and worn-out rumor. Redesigned Liquidmetal iPhone may debut at WWDC in June (BGR) Another Asian source claims the next iPhone will be redesigned with a Liquidmetal case. If that rumor sounds familiar, it should, because like most of the rumors on this list, it's a re-run. B.S. detector reading: 8/10. This is a malodorous combination of a sketchy source from South Korea and a rehashed rumor that's already failed to materialize. Apple's next iPhone launch could be most important in smartphone history (BGR) An analyst who apparently has no recollection of the year 2007 claims the next iPhone launch will be the most important launch ever. His evidence? Well, he doesn't really have any. B.S. detector reading: Off scale high. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence; when you don't provide any evidence whatsoever, your credibility deserves an old-fashioned boot to the bum. And that headline might have been the most hyperbolic in smartphone headline history. Next-Generation iPhone to Use Thinner In-Cell Technology for Multi-Touch Display? (Mac Rumors) This rumor has it all. Analysts, Asian supply chains, and "occasionally-reliable Digitimes" (sic). If by "occasionally reliable" you mean "hasn't said one accurate thing since early 2011," then sure. Otherwise, the (sic) stands. B.S. detector reading: Off scale high due to inclusion of Digitimes as a source. Regardless of whether Apple is planning on using this technology or not, the perfect storm of terrible sources makes this story about as easy to swallow as Jurassic fruitcake. Entry-level 'iPhone nano' again rumored to launch this year (BGR) China Times cites unnamed sources within the Asian supply chain claiming the long-rumored so-called "iPhone nano" is in production. "No really. This time for sure. We promise." B.S. detector reading: 10/10. No one has ever come up with a credible form factor or compelling reason why Apple should bother creating this imaginary product. Also, any report citing "unnamed sources within the Asian supply chain" is about as well-sourced as me just asking my greyhound what Apple's up to. "What's that, girl? Apple's building an iPhone shuffle now? Okay, I'll run with it, but if you're wrong again, no steak for a week." More mockups make the case for a 4-inch iPhone (9to5 Mac) Reader-supplied mockups "make the case" for Apple changing the iPhone's screen size. Note that we made mockups of our own over a year ago, yet the iPhone's screen is still 3.5 inches. Odd. It's almost like one of the world's best industrial designers isn't paying attention to the Internet and is sticking with his own ideas instead. B.S. detector reading: 6/10. As we said 14 months ago, Apple may well change the size of the iPhone's display someday. But doing so comes with so many potential pitfalls and disadvantages that the company needs a more compelling reason than "Gee, if only our real-world product looked even half as terrible as all these hastily-Photoshopped mockups." Chip delays point to next-gen iPhone launch around October (Ars Technica) Ars Technica is almost always on the more credible end of the Apple news spectrum, and the site doesn't disappoint this time. Citing a report from Qualcomm, a big-name component supplier whose products are actually fully relevant to the iPhone, Ars Technica claims the next iPhone probably won't launch before October due to shortages of Qualcomm's cellular baseband chips. Those are kind of important, because without them there's no Phone in iPhone. B.S. detector reading: 0/10. I don't doubt Ars' source or the veracity of its report, and the site helpfully notes that Apple was probably aiming for an October launch in the first place. No credible reports have arisen pointing to a midsummer iPhone refresh this year, so a "delay" to October shouldn't surprise anyone. Rumor: iPhone 5 Home Buttons Appear for Sale (AppleBitch) In what must constitute the least exciting parts leak all year, subtly different Home buttons have appeared on a Chinese supplier site. Rather than two small tabs jutting out from the central circle, these new Home buttons have a big, rounded rectangle flange around them. Excited yet? No? What if I told you it's for the iPhone 5?!? Still no? Eh, I tried. B.S. detector reading: 5/10. Who knows what product these buttons are destined for? More to the point, who cares? The only rise this particular rumor got out of me was, "Maybe this is finally the end of those stupid 'Next iPhone won't have a Home button' rumors." Apple CEO Tim Cook spotted at video game designer Valve's headquarters (AppleInsider) Supposedly Tim Cook showed up at Valve earlier this week, and that set off a storm of speculation across the Internet. What could it mean? What could it mean?! B.S. detector reading: 10/10. After hearing the Apple CEO was on their turf, Valve co-founder Gabe Newell and several other employees emailed back and forth trying to figure out who met with Tim Cook. It turns out no one did, because Tim Cook was never at Valve. I don't know who fed that particular line to AppleInsider, but I hope the site now realizes that the Cook is a lie. That's a full week's worth of the Apple blogosphere's rumor offal. Come back next Monday for more exciting tales of imaginary and often nonsensical products, brought to you from the finest, drunkest analysts that money can buy.
iPhone 5 / 4S: the rumor roundup
It's July, there is no new iPhone, and the analysts are restless. This time last year, Apple had already announced and begun shipping the iPhone 4 -- in fact, every single previous model has been announced in June, save for the first, which was unveiled in January 2007. So, now that the month has come and gone and WWDC with it, what are all of the tech publications out there to do? Make with the rumor stories, naturally -- and over the past few weeks, they've been coming fast and furious.DigiTimes has offered a fairly constant stream of sometimes dubious rumors surrounding the device from its stable of supplier contacts, and a recent article from The Wall Street Journal has reopened the floodgates. GigaOm has gone so far as to suggest that the latter may well be a controlled leak from Apple, and certainly it has reignited interest in the belated device.There's not a lot in the way consensus here, save for one key detail: Apple appears set to release a new iPhone. That much seems certain. After all, the iPhone remains the company's biggest money maker, even in this post-iPad world. Last year, of course, we had a slightly better guide ahead of the launch, but this time out, for better or worse, no one at Cupertino has been considerate enough to leave the upcoming handset at a Redwood City bar after a night of partying, so let's cut through the noise and and piece together a cohesive picture based on the wide assortment of rumors.
Nintendo Wii HD / Project Cafe rumor roundup: What will E3 hold for the gaming giant?
We're a few days out from E3, that magical place where dreams are made and fanboys and girls from all walks of life are simultaneously appeased and slightly disappointed. Surprises are expected from all of the big three this year -- particularly Nintendo. How will the gaming giant top last year's 3DS debut? All signs point to the announcement of a Wii followup, which we've heard alternately referred to as the "Wii HD" and "Project Cafe." Rumors, leaks, and the occasional bit of confirmed information have been rampant in the months and weeks leading up to the event. We've weaved it all together into one handy guidebook, to make sure that we're all on the same page, come Tuesday morning. Let's start with a genuine bit of information: back in April, the company's CEO, Satoru Iwata, confirmed that Nintendo is, in fact, working on an HD followup to the Wii that is most likely due out in 2012. A few days prior to that revelation, the requisite blurry images of console concepts surfaced, detailing controllers with embedded touchscreens that display the system's 1080p gameplay via a technology called Stream Screen. These certainly weren't the first concepts of the console we've seen -- and they were apparently first brought to light by the folks at 4Chan.
Apple rumor roundup: 'the day before' edition
We'll just come right out and say it: we couldn't possibly be happier to see that January 27, 2010 is tomorrow. Shortly after 10AM on the left coast, Stevie J himself will finally put a hush to the rumors that have been swirling constantly over the past fortnight or so (and we'll be there live to cover it). Till then, however, we've got one more round of scuttlebutt to serve up. Kicking things off is a New York Times report that explains in some level of detail what exactly the supposed Apple tablet will feature in terms of specifications. To quote: "It will run all the applications of the iPhone and iPod Touch, have a persistent wireless connection over 3G cellphone networks and Wi-Fi, and will be built with a 10-inch color display, allowing newspapers, magazines and book publishers to deliver their products with an eye to the design that had grabbed readers in print." We shall see. Moving on, we've got even more whispers that publishers -- with the NYT mentioned specifically -- around the globe have been getting wind of this thing as the suits in Cupertino attempt to nail down content deals. Broadcast Engineering even has a piece that straight-up states that Apple was "was in New York City last week showing the tablet to media companies as a new way to sell books, newspapers and other reading material through its iTunes online store." Still not convinced? NetbookNews has an apparently ongoing article about the authenticity / non-authenticity of a Media Markt tweet that "accidentally" leaked a supposed €899 price point for the device, while Hot Hardware switches things up and reports that AT&T will lose its iPhone exclusivity during tomorrow's event. Oh, and the very first hands-on review of the Apple tablet is also live (courtesy of Mosspuppet), while yet another hotly contested image has arisen to perch atop these very words. Phew.
Apple Tablet rumor roundup: publishers and carriers edition
This day simply wouldn't be a day between January 18, 2010 and January 27, 2010 without a new gaggle of Apple Tablet rumors to sift through, and while we're gritting our teeth as we skim every word, we've the latest and greatest most far-fetched rounded up here for your perusal. The rumor: The Apple Tablet will "strike a familiar chord with owners of the original iPhone, with similarities in industrial design trickling all the way down to the handset's button and connectivity components." Our take: Honestly, we can believe this one. Apple has had a great deal of success with the iPhone, and we've already seen the "tablet PC" as it's known today take a nosedive. Apple Insider is saying that the device may look a lot like a "first-generation iPhone that's met its match with a rolling pin," and while we've obviously no inside way to confirm nor deny, we can get why Apple would stick close to a design that it knows will work. Oh, and be sure to peek two more clearly fake mockups after the break. The rumor: New York Times Arthur Sulzberger, Jr. won't be at Apple keynote next week. Our take: So? Just because the head honcho from The Times is planning to be in Davos, Switzerland next week while Apple unveils its tablet doesn't mean that Jobs can't showcase the device's ability to video chat across oceans in front of the masses... if Apple even has a deal with any publisher. If Apple really is reaching out to publishers for content deals, you can bet your bottom dollar the NYT is listening. And be honest -- if you had the option of being in Davos or some convention center in San Francisco, which would you pick? More after the break... if you dare.
Apple rumor roundup: pipe dreams, Lala's role and Verizon's iPhone 4G
In case you haven't noticed, things are getting out of hand in the world of Apple rumors. Frankly, it's all we can do to read another one and trudge onward, but hey -- we've no problem with folks putting their reputations on the line here. Let's dig in to the latest pair, shall we? The rumor: Apple's acquisition of Lala will actually lead to customers having access to an "online locker" for multimedia. This could be a cloud storage location for one's iTunes library, enabling them to have access to their jams and vids even when away from their at-home storage. The trick is that the cloud would only hold the metadata, and streaming would originate from somewhere else on Apple's end. Our take: Okay, so we want to believe. Just imagine if your next Apple tablet or iPhone knew exactly what songs you owned in iTunes, and at a moment's notice, you could tap into the iTunes store and stream full, unedited versions of those songs from anywhere. Amazing, no? Problem is, the bulk of iTunes libraries aren't made up of content that was purchased in iTunes (or purchased at all). It seems that the best Apple could do would be to negotiate streaming deals for content you've actually purchased within iTunes, which results in a half-baked user experience. Last we checked, Stevie J wasn't much on half-baked user experiences. The rumor: Astoundingly, the mythical Apple tablet won't be the company's "one more thing" next week; instead, it'll be a refreshed iPhone... that works on Verizon Wireless. Oh, and iPhone OS 4.0. So says Canaccord Adams analyst Peter Misek, anyway. Our take: Ha! Apple has never been one to showcase too much at one time, and we're guessing that the outfit would be smart enough to withhold a new iPhone introduction for a separate press event. We don't doubt that a Verizon iPhone is in the works (though an LTE version will be at least a year or two out), but there's no way Jobs steals the tablet's thunder by giving every rabid iPhone user hot sweats when considering the switch to Big Red. Bottom line? Don't bank on it. At this point, we reckon everyone would be best served by taking a huge step back, a deep breath and one of those so-called "chill pills." Next Wednesday ain't so far away, now is it?
Apple Tablet rumor roundup: summer 2010 edition
Before we get into the rumors, here's a fact: unless the Apple Tablet cures cancer, global warming and obesity in one fell swoop, there'll be plenty of disappointed faces leaving the Yerba Buena theater next Wednesday. The hype is that overpowering. But hey, that doesn't mean we are not curious to know what it will actually do, so let's get to the latest batch of uncorroborated scuttlebutt. The Rumor: The Mac Observer believes these are legitimate photos of a 10-inch glass front for Apple's new machine. Coming from a "trusted source," the pictures seem to confirm a 10-inch screen size and an iPhone-inspired design (which includes an earphone hole!). In the pic to the side, you can see it resting atop a unibody MacBook Pro's keyboard for a sense of scale. Our Take: Naturally taken in the worst possible light and suffering from a strong dose of noise and noise-reducing blur, the photos are close to impossible to verify. Their claim for legitimacy is also not helped by the blatant appearance of a scaled-up iPhone front plate -- something we could mock up ourselves if we had the patience. The Rumor: Actual retail units of the fabled world-changing device won't be available until June. AppleInsider reports some analyst noise indicating that battery life and durability issues could delay the tablet's release until the middle of this year. Moreover, on the authority of "supply chain sources," it has been described as a "super iPod touch," with a suggestion it might have an ARM-based core inside. Our Take: It's well known that the original iPhone followed a similar launch pattern of a January announcement and a June release, but Apple must be equally aware of how disappointing to its fans (and shareholders, more importantly) a paper launch would be. ARM internals seem logical, particularly since the iPhone already runs such hardware, and NVIDIA's Tegra 2 platform -- driven by a dual-core Cortex A9 chip -- has made some lofty promises about what can be done with the architecture. The Rumor: The Guardian, via 9to5Mac, informs us that Apple has been in talks with UK mobile carriers about bringing its famine destroyer to the Queen's backyard in subsidized form. We're told it'll be bundled with mobile broadband contracts -- in much the same fashion as netbooks are treated currently -- but there'll be no exclusivity deals on the table so Orange, O2 and Vodafone are all in the running. There's also pretty firm word that the iWonder won't be making its UK debut until "later in the spring." Our Take: Mobile broadband takeup is only going to grow in the UK and netbook bundles seem to have been popular so far, so it seems like a no-brainer to try and capitalize on this burgeoning market. As pointed out in The Guardian, behind the scenes talks don't always turn into real world deals, but at this point we'd be surprised if Apple wasn't talking to carriers about subsidies. Well, we wanted photos and we got 'em -- in the signature grainy style that all pre-announcement hardware seems to appear. The latter two rumors have some intriguing synergy, though: both point toward availability coming significantly later than the announcement, and both seem to steer away from integrated 3G connectivity. We really can't wait to know -- if only to stop this speculative madness.
Apple rumor roundup: future of media edition
Now that Apple's officially announced an event to show off its "latest creation" on the 27th, the rumors and gossip are about to get even more out of hand -- eventually we expect them to take flight and start raiding small towns for soda water and appetizers. In the meantime, however, we've got the latest batch of somewhat-sober whispers to tide us over, so let's run through 'em, shall we? The rumor: The iPhone Blog points us to a China Times piece setting the tablet's screen size at 9.7 inches. (We covered the 22-inch touchscreen iMac rumor separately.) Our take: At this point we've heard pretty much every screen size from eight inches to 11, so we're not making a call either way on this one. We will say that the only other product with a 9.7-inch screen we can think of off-hand is the Kindle DX -- a relatively simple device that's still so large and heavy we generally hold it with two hands. Just something to think about. The rumor: Ars Technica talks to the director of the OLED Association, who rules out a 10.1-inch AMOLED screen by saying "there's no real production of 10.1-inch panels." Oh, and the only place to buy those would be Samsung, really, and Sammy doesn't have the capacity. Our take: We never thought a 10.1 OLED screen was likely: not only are prices insane, but OLED still has terrible daylight viewing issues. The Ars piece is well worth a read, though -- it's a nice look at the state of OLED.
Apple rumor roundup: iPhone patent 4.0 edition
On today's edition of the never-ending Apple rumor roundup, we take a quick detour into the murky realm of the United States patent database, topped off with a charming unsourced tip and some delightful analyst conjecture. Let's blaze. The rumor: A recent Apple patent application for a capacitive touchscreen-specific stylus may or may not mean The Tablet uses a stylus for input. Our take: We've already promised to eat our hat if Apple puts a removable battery in the iPhone, so what's next? A shoe? We will eat a shoe if Steve Jobs introduces a product that requires the use of a stylus. Besides, this product already exists: it's called the Pogo Stylus, and it's not exactly rocking minds (although we are intrigued by Inklet). Apple likes to file silly broad patent applications and see what it can get away with -- it's never been wise to read too much into them. The rumor: Another Apple patent application hints that portable DVR functionality is coming to the iPod / iPhone -- you'll be able to grab TV and radio content from cable, satellite, OTA, or using "services" with your portable device and then load that into iTunes. Not only will you be able to connect new iPods to a cable box to record shows -- channel changing and everything -- but Apple's going to release an accessory for older iPods to enable this functionality as well. Our take: This would be like a dream come true for the consumer, and a crazy heroin nightmare for Apple to actually implement -- can you imagine an iPod with a freaking CableCARD slot? Neither can we. Besides, it's not like Apple to push content sales from anything other than the iTunes Store, and it's especially not like Apple to extend functionality to older iPods when it can just release a newer one in a slightly different metallic finish. Next!
Apple rumor roundup: improbable removable battery edition
Now that CES is officially over, it's apparently time for the vague Apple rumor factory to start churning out sketchy reports about tablets, next-gen iPhones, and "vanishing" domain names. Yeah, it's getting silly out there, but judging by our tip box you all can't get enough, so let's do this thing rapid-fire style. The rumor: The Korea Times, citing unnamed sources at Korea Telecom, says the carrier is planning for a 4G iPhone featuring an OLED display, a front-facing video camera, a fast new dual-core CPU, and a removable battery. General launch is expected in June, but corporate clients will be doing a "litmus test" in April. Our take: We will eat our hats if Apple puts a removable battery in the iPhone. Plus, Apple doesn't do focus group testing, least of all with enterprise customers. This just seems like wishful thinking -- we could have made up a more convincing rumor while eating a hat. The rumor: 10.1 OLED and LCD display panels are no longer available anywhere, because Apple has "pre-ordered them all" to secure volume discounts and keep the tablet's price down. Our take: We certainly saw plenty of new 10.1-inch netbooks and slates at CES, including some multitouch LCD units, and no one was complaining. Also, we saw several larger OLED displays at CES, but they were all too expensive and impractical for shipping products, so that's gotta be one hell of a discount. The rumor: Apple has mysteriously shut down the FingerWorks website, which means something tablet-related because... well, it must mean something, right? Our take: Apple bought FingerWorks years ago -- we're surprised this hadn't happened sooner. We bet the hosting contract just ran out. Alternatively, Steve Jobs is trying to send us a message by yanking an obscure touch-related domain just weeks before a highly-anticipated product launch, because he is the master of extremely minor hints about nothing. All in all, a pretty lame set of rumors -- there's barely anything here for pundits and the mass media to conflate and distort into something bigger. At least give us a poorly-translated French telecom executive speaking off the cuff, you know? Have some dignity.
Apple tablet(s) in 2H 2010 with OLED screen and tailored content in tow?
Rumors of the mythical Apple tablet's release were just starting to coalesce around an early 2010 release, so naturally DigiTimes is now reporting that the much ballyhooed device won't show up until the second half of next year. Apple is said to have given itself more time to swap out internals and install a 9.7-inch OLED display from LG, which meshes with earlier rumors about where the relationship between the two companies was heading. Sources expect the opening retail price to be around a hefty $2,000, but for the budget-conscious there will also be a 10.6-inch LCD version that will land somewhere between $800 and $1,000. Or so we're told. Somewhat more concrete is the news that Conde Nast, publisher of Wired Magazine, has openly confirmed that it is developing a digital version of its tech magazine for consumption on the Apple tablet, with the rest of its content catalog to soon follow. Its own estimate of having the paid-for digitized magazines, which will include Vogue and GQ, ready for the middle of 2010 also jibes with the reported delays. Then again, Apple has refused to discuss the unannounced device with anyone, leaving Conde and Adobe developing the necessary software in the dark.
Apple tablet rumor roundup: future of media edition
The sketchy Apple tablet rumors have continued apace in the past few days, and rather than hit you with each bit of fluff as it comes in, we're going to be rounding them up from now on. Today's edition builds on earlier reports that Apple's trying to drag print media kicking and screaming into the future, with whispers that Apple execs recently met with Australian media execs to pitch them on new ways to distribute their content on a device "small enough to carry in a handbag but too big to fit in a pocket." Apparently the deal involves a 70/30 revenue split, just like the iPhone App Store -- and unlike the insane 30/70 split Amazon demands on the Kindle, which Apple executives called an "unattractive industry structure" during an investor event a few days later. Of course, Apple tends to say it's not interested in something right before it enters the market, so read that as you will. And finally, China OnTrade today posted up an "Apple iPhone 4 Generation Midboard," which would be a totally boring piece of plastic with no connection to anything... except these guys managed to score some iPhone 3GS parts way early as well. Is this just junk, or is it is really a new iPhone leaking months and months early? Or maybe just leftovers from a camera-equipped iPod touch that never was? Or... is this also some random part of a new tablet? No one really knows -- which is why we're sticking it all in this post and moving on with our lives. Read - Apple pitches to Australian media Read - Apple execs call online print media "unattractive" Read - China OnTrade iPhone 4 Generation midboard
Apple iPhone 3.0 rumor roundup, part II: parental controls and sketchy shots
WWDC can't possibly come soon enough at this point, with the usual endless array of random, oft-conflicting iPhone rumors being tempered only somewhat by the impending release of its archrival, the Pre. Meanwhile, though, we're once again on cleanup duty -- and the latest batch of rumors brings us a new alleged shot of the phone (or one of them, anyway, assuming there are multiple models coming down the pike). If we had to guess, this is supposed to be a graphic you'd see on Apple's web store, and while the black border coincides with everything we believe to be true about the new gear, the "Available today" text there gives us pause -- Apple really hasn't pulled that kind of instant-inventory stunt lately and we've been led to believe from the previous two iPhone launches that it's basically impossible to make it happen with that kind of device.Moving on, spelunking through iTunes' inner workings has yielded more evidence that suggest Apple will introduce Nike+ support -- a feature arguably long overdue on the iPhone -- and some sort of FM radio tagging, though it's not clear whether it'll be used with an integrated tuner (a rumored feature) or simply as a memory-jogger when listening to another radio. Our money is on the former. Finally, we have what appear to be some screen shots of iPhone 3.0's new parental control system for applications in action, showing exactly what happens when you try to install some sick, lewd, objectionable material from the App Store -- check out our little gallery below for that.[Thanks, ascen]Read - Sketchy screenshot shows new model?Read - FM radio tagging and Nike+ support suggested
MacBook / MacBook Pro rumor roundup
Well the rumoratti has certainly been working overtime today when it comes to Apple, so we've decided to bundle all the news that's currently doing the rounds into one tasty and nutritious post.First up, there are new -- and quite detailed -- pictures out of what appears to be those MacBook and MacBook Pro casings we saw during the week. Again, we can't 100 percent confirm that these are the real deal, but they certainly have that Air-meets-MacBook hybrid quality to them that would suggest we're looking at the next iteration of the line.Secondly, Apple has gone and published a support document for the "MacBook/MacBook Pro (Late 2008)" -- which suggests (gasp!) that there might be some late 2008 refreshes in our future. Oh really? Weird. Rounding out the excitement, AppleInsider "confirms" the rumor that the new MacBooks will jettison the integrated Intel graphics which earlier models have used in favor of NVIDIA's MCP79 platform. The GPUs apparently use a new set of GeForce 9300 and 9400 chips that will make previous performance look archaic by comparison. Additionally, according to hotshot Mac rumor specialist Kevin Rose, the new systems will support Blu-ray drives, thus finally allowing you to watch season 4 of Lost the way the lord intended it.As with all rumors, you can never really know which one of these is going to stick, but luckily we won't have to wait very long to get to the bottom of it. In the meantime, feel free to peruse the various links below and soak in the sweet, sweet gossip.[Thanks to everyone who sent this in]Read - Leaked MacBook / MacBook Pro casing photosRead - Apple Document Confirms MacBook/MacBook Pro (Late 2008)Read - Apple dumping Intel chipsets for NVIDIA's in new MacBooksRead - Kevin Rose drops MacBook Blu-Ray Rumor at Live Diggnation event
