polling
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Instagram's direct message polls give you private feedback
Instagram's polls are good for soliciting feedback (or just stroking your ego), but what if you'd rather not share the results with absolutely all of your followers? You now have that option. Poll stickers are now available for direct messages, making it easy to pick your friends' brains without broadcasting it as a Story. You can ask your closest pals for fashion tips without spoiling what you'll wear, for example.
MIT finds actual wisdom in the wisdom of crowds
To paraphrase Men In Black's Agent K, a person is smart, but people are dumb, panicky and dangerous animals. Researchers at MIT and Princeton wanted to see if, despite this, they were able to extract better information from crowds. They appear to have succeeded after developing an algorithm that looks at what people answer, but also what they believe other people will answer too.
Earthquake science explains why election polls were so wrong
Polls are not predictors. This is the message that American University history professor Allan Lichtman has been screaming at the world since 1981: It's not that the polling system itself is broken -- instead, polls behave exactly as they're designed. The problem is they aren't designed to predict the outcome of elections. "Polls are snapshots," Lichtman says. "They are not predictors. They are abused and misused as predictors because they're so easy. If you're a journalist, you don't even have to get out of bed in the morning to write a story about the polls and tell where the so-called 'horse race' stands." Lichtman has accurately predicted the winner of the nine US presidential elections since 1984, relying on his 13-point Keys to the White House model. He even got it right this year, when most pundits and polls were wildly, disastrously incorrect. But Lichtman didn't just get it right; he predicted in September that Donald Trump would win the presidency, more than a month before Election Day. That was also before a swathe of potentially game-changing October surprises rocked the news cycle, including a tape of Trump bragging about sexually assaulting women and FBI director James Comey reigniting conspiracies about Hillary Clinton's use of a private server as Secretary of State.
Recommended Reading: Trump's own polling models prove accurate
Trump's Big Data Mind Explains How He Knew Trump Could Win Izzie Lapowsky, Wired While it could take some time to uncover the finer points of why the polls were so far off in the 2016 presidential election, the head of President-elect Donald Trump's data team knew the candidate had a good chance of pulling out a stunning upset. Wired talked with Cambridge Analytica's Matt Oczkowski to get some details on their internal polling models which correctly predicted how most of the states would vote.
Google buys an online polling startup to help improve Google+
You know what Google+ really needs, more than anything else? Polls. Right, maybe not, but Google did just acquire a startup (yes, another one!) called Polar that specialized in crafting buzzy online polls like "Who did a better job hosting 'The View'?" and "Is WhatsApp worth $16 billion?" (no, really) for media outlets and website operators. While it wouldn't be impossible for those sorts of click-driving questions to find a new home in Google+, that's not really why Google opened its checkbook. As the New York Times points out, this was actually an acquihire -- a deal meant more to snag the people behind the product than the product itself. Those folks (including co-founder Luke Wroblewski, a big proponent of mobile-first design) are joining the Google+ team to do, well, no one really knows yet. Google VP of engineering Dave Besris cryptically noted on his own Google+ page that they'd be working on making the maligned social service "even more awesome," which in this case apparently means helping fine-tune the Google+ experience, especially when it comes to those small screens we carry with us everywhere.
The Daily Grind: What MMO are you embarrassed to admit you play?
One of the silly questions I posed the Massively staff during our end-of-2012 awards was about embarrassing MMOs that we play. But we didn't publish the answers, partly because we couldn't come to any consensus. Glitch took my vote; browser games are still looked down on, no matter how creative they are. Among the other writers, Clone Wars Adventures cropped up, as did RuneScape, Free Realms, Habbo Hotel, and Star Stable. It wasn't just "kids games" making the cut, either. Mike lamented the fact that World of Warcraft is a "punch line" in the community and that "serious" MMO players can't play it. Jef said Lord of the Rings Online makes him want to shower after he logs out, while Patrick argued that Champions Online's apparent lack of developer resources makes for a sad experience. But the other reason we didn't publish our responses was that most of us just aren't deeply embarrassed about playing anything. As Eliot put it, If you're playing an MMO, you have absolutely zero ground to make fun of someone else for playing another MMO. This is something that really gets under my skin, the idea that some games are somehow cooler than others. MMOs are just plain fun, and there's no reason to be embarrassed by anything you like to play. I'm happy when anyone finds a fun game, even if it's a game I'm personally not fond of. Follow your bliss, people, and hold your heads high. So where do you stand? Are you embarrassed to play a certain MMO, and if so, what is it? Every morning, the Massively bloggers probe the minds of their readers with deep, thought-provoking questions about that most serious of topics: massively online gaming. We crave your opinions, so grab your caffeinated beverage of choice and chime in on today's Daily Grind!
Friday Favorite: PollEverywhere Mac Presenter grows up
When your job (or schoolwork) involves giving presentations to rooms full of more-or-less interested parties, you know how hard it can be to maintain a constructive level of audience attention. The economical cloud audience response system (ARS) provided by the mad scientists at PollEverywhere is a great way to spice up a session with quick, engaging multiple choice and full-text questions. PollEverywhere's polls display wonderfully on the web (if you've got the Flash player) and do well in Windows versions of PowerPoint, where the appropriate ActiveX control to embed the remote Flash animation is available. For Mac presentation apps, however, the path is not so smooth. Prior versions of the company's Mac Presenter app used a QuickTime workaround to display polls, but it was somewhat clunky and did not automatically cue up when the polling slide appeared on screen. Time for an improved approach. With the December 2011 release of the all-new Mac Presenter application, the polling experience is now hands-free and incredibly simple. The Mac Presenter app connects to your PollEverywhere hosted account and lets you embed polling references into Keynote or PowerPoint slides with a single click -- the poll identifiers end up as a block of XML code in the slide notes, so you can easily move polling slides from deck to deck. The rest is easy: you just draw a solid color box on your slide where you want the poll to show up. Like magic, when you present that slide, the Mac Presenter app will scale the poll display to cover just that placeholder box. True, it's a smidge more effort than the Windows PowerPoint configuration, but it's definitely worth it. PollEverywhere offers a free plan that allows up to 40 responses per poll, and business pricing for higher service levels starts at $15 per month. K-12 and higher-ed discounts are also available. Do you have a favorite Mac app, peripheral/accessory, cloud service or iOS app that you think deserves to be featured as a Friday Favorite? Be sure to let us know.
Peel to test real-time polling of TV shows
Remember Peel? The pear-shaped IR blaster and accompanying remote control app was given the TUAW review treatment last July by our very own Victor Agreda, Jr. The company has announced that starting this week, they'll be testing a real-time polling feature in the app. Not surprisingly, the polling feature will be tested on this week's episode of American Idol. The way the polling will work is that you'll have the opportunity to "cheer" or "boo" performances by clicking buttons on your iPhone. Don't like what Steven Tyler or J-Lo have to say about a performer? No problem -- you'll be able to boo them as well (or cheer for them if you're so inclined). The company wants to expand polling to other shows as well -- think of sports or political events. Peel is also putting iTunes "buy" buttons next to the photos of your favorite would-be stars, although they're not getting a cut of sales made through the app. If you are one of the few who have purchased a Peel and happen to be an "Idol" fan, be sure to try the new feature out this week. [Photo credit: Peel]
Leaderboard: Leveling vs. endgame
It's the eternal debate that's occupied our attention on so many episodes of Massively Speaking that we had to bring it to you, the impartial judges and juries of the MMO world. What is better and more enjoyable: the leveling journey or the endgame activities? In my opinion, it's all about the journey up through the levels. You're constantly traveling through new regions and vistas, watching your character increase in power and abilities. It's almost like a movie, in which the young inexperienced hero heads out for a life-changing quest. But others claim that the endgame is where the true MMO experience lies. It's here that your character finally has a full range of his/her/its abilities and is able to tackle the toughest challenges and most epic confrontations in the game. So let's see how this pans out in the public arena. Which aspect of MMOs gets your motor running? Which is where the true spirit of gaming rests? Vote, and live a life free of regrets!
Leaderboard: 2011 vs. 2012
The past vs. the future. The Year of the Rabbit vs. the Year of the Dragon. In short, 2011 vs. 2012 -- which will ultimately prove to be the better year for MMOs? Oh sure, you might say it's unfair to compare a known quantity with an unknown one, but since when has that stopped MMO players from prognosticating the definitive outcome of everything within a 0.0001% margin of error? 2011 was light on major releases, but the ones it did have were certainly significant. Plus, it was a year of major change in the industry as free-to-play spread its tendrils everywhere, studios took risks on new ideas, and if you could get past the loud whining in one corner you'd see millions upon millions of happy gamers flocking to these games daily. Then again, 2012 could be the real deal, the contender for which we've all been waiting. It could see several big AAA releases even as the industry tries to branch out from the established ruts of the past. It's a year full of potential, promise, and play, and it's out there waiting for you. Ultimately, which do you think will go down in history as the better year? Vote after the jump!
SOE's Fan Faire 2012 moving to the Fall
It's never too early to start planning for next year's convention season, and Sony Online Entertainment has announced that its annual Fan Faire get-together is vacating its traditional summer slot starting in 2012. SOE's Las Vegas shindig will move to the Fall, and the company is currently offering up a public vote to determine the exact dates. Participants can select between the weekends of September 13th through September 16th, September 27th through September 30th, or October 18th through October 21st. In a post on SOE's official boards, Linda "Brasse" Carlson explains that the bump is mostly due to the availability of the venue, which in turn keeps costs down and enables SOE to continue hosting the fan-friendly event.
The Anvil of Crom: It's the Bear Shaman (barely)
Well, the people have spoken, and it seems like I've got some new marching orders when it comes to Age of Conan. If you've been following the column for the last little while, you'll know that I'm running a miniseries that borrows heavily from Massively's Choose My Adventure pieces. Every so often I'll offer up some polls relating to various gameplay choices, giving you the reader the opportunity to vicariously explore aspects of Funcom's fantasy title that may have lacked previous coverage. I'll report on my character's adventures on a regular basis, with the long-term goal being a pretty comprehensive record of what it's like to play AoC from 1 to 80, as well as a deep look at endgame. In addition, it's a public character, so anyone who wants to group for dungeons, PvP, or general shenanigans can hit me up in game. Preambles aside, head past the cut to see the results of last week's polling and a glimpse into the future.
The Anvil of Crom: Future perfect?
Poor Age of Conan. Funcom's sword, sorcery, and sandal epic is a perennial also-ran in Massively's semi-monthly Choose My Adventure voting. For the uninitiated, CMA is a series wherein one (un)lucky Massively scribe puts his or her gaming life in the hands of the readers for several weeks at a time. Poll participants can choose the game, and depending on various factors, the character race, class, vocation, goals, and a number of other gameplay-related guidelines. The writer then plays and reports on the experience, usually publicizing the character and inviting interested readers to play along. While the CMA series has visited some pretty diverse locales over the last couple of years, including Darkfall, Aion, Lord of the Rings Online, and Wizard101, Age of Conan always seems to come up short in the polls. That's OK though, because The Anvil of Crom is gearing up to take an occasional page out of Massively's Choose My Adventure book. Flip past the cut to find out how.
Choose My Adventure: To boldly go where no CMA has gone before edition
There you are! Hello, my fellow intrepid explorers and gaming enthusiasts -- and also any random hecklers who may be wandering about! It is I, your new Choose My Adventure plaything... er correspondent. Yes folks, I have the auspicious opportunity to spend the next six weeks with you in the game of your choosing, following a path laid out by you. No, I did not lose a bet or an arm-wrestling match here at the Massively office. I swear to you -- I volunteered for this! See, I have this insatiable need to explore, and what better way to try to quench that than by jumping head-first into a new and exciting world? And what better way to experience a new world than alongside friends? So here I am, throwing myself to the wol... er, putting my virtual life in the hands of you, our faithful (did I mention clever and wonderful?) readers. When not winging it in Atreia, I shall be heading down the path you mark. Where will the breadcrumbs lead -- to a land torn by war, to a battleship on the high seas, to an apocalyptic river basin, or even to space and beyond? Don't let the title influence you -- it's all up to you. Grab your pack and head past the cut to cast your vote for the setting of the next adventure! Be sure to get your votes in before 11:59 p.m. EST on Sunday, February 27th to have your say in where we play!
Choose My Adventure: Indie and free-to-play edition
Howdy, folks. It's that time again -- time to choose a new game for the infamous Choose My Adventure series. This time, however, I, Beau Hindman, have been nominated to act as your guide for the next month and a half. This might be good or bad depending on what kind of games you would like to see me write about. As the resident "indie/free-to-play dude" I am morally obligated to make a list composed of games we do not already cover several times per week. Do me a favor, though: Even if you do not recognize many of these games, go ahead and vote anyway. Take a moment before you do and check the game's website, read up on some of the FAQs, and maybe make an account. Then, cast your vote. It's important that we give the same amount of spotlight to smaller titles. If we start to value games only for their budget or staff size, then we will end up talking about a very limited set of choices. Variety is the key to happiness! So click past the cut and vote on your favorite pick! Just make sure to have your vote in by 12:00 p.m. noon EST on January 10th.
Are gaming subscriptions "going the way of the dodo?"
Duck and cover, subscription gamers, as the sky is finally falling (according to a report from Parks Associates, at any rate). The research firm has collated data that suggests one in five active U.S. gamers spends money on virtual items. What's not clear is the definition of "active," nor why the 20 percent of F2P users is highlighted while the remaining 80% is not. The report ostensibly samples "a wide swath of the online gaming market, including MMOs, console games, casual social titles, and cloud-based game offerings." It also notes a 7% decrease in online gaming subscriptions from 2008 to 2010, a period which also happens to coincide with the once-in-a-generation economic disaster that is still ongoing. Nevertheless, Parks' Pietro Macchiarella feels that the data makes it "increasingly difficult to justify subscription fees. Thanks to social games and free-to-play MMOs, both casual and hardcore players have the option of playing quality games online for free," he says. Check out the source article at Industry Gamers.
Choose My Adventure: Be gentle with me edition
Alright, places everyone. Cue the John Williams music. I'm about to embark on my life-long dream of being an adventurer for hire. That's right folks, you've got a new host puppet to play around with (or stick pins in, if you prefer) when it comes to Massively's Choose My Adventure. Now's your chance to pick my poison in terms of the lands I'll be pillaging, plowing, or otherwise partaking of for the next six weeks. Now, I know what you're thinking (because it's the same thing I'm thinking): how in the heck is he going to play Age of Conan, report on community and customer service, bring us the news, and do justice to the CMA title of everyone's choosing? Honestly I don't know, but I'm betting it will involve truck loads of caffeinated beverages. So what'll it be, dear readers? WAAAGHing it up in Warhammer? Running for our lives as Deathwing singes our back hair? Fretting over interfaces and leves in Final Fantasy XIV? Dodging Darkfall's PvP fanatics? These are but a few of our options this week. Anyway, before I end up with a preamble that's as over-the-top as a side of chilled monkey brains, flip past the cut to get to the polls and pick our next great adventure. Also, make sure you cast your vote prior to 11:59 pm Eastern on Tuesday, November 9th. Continue to Part II.
TERA polling community for development ideas
En Masse Entertainment's Evan "Scapes" Berman has checked in on the official TERA forums with a brief note that details a new community outreach program for the fantasy MMORPG. Velika's Voice will attempt to glean the collective community feeling for a particular in-game subject via a poll question and the resulting forum back-and-forth. "We will use the results and subsequent discussion harvested from these polls [...] to assist in the development of the game," Berman writes. While the skeptic in us feels like this might simply be a pro marketing move designed to keep TERA in the public eye, it will nonetheless be interesting to see some of the community responses and note whether the feedback does in fact influence the final product. Be sure to read the announcement and take part in the initial poll offering.
Conclusions from the WoW.com faction transfer survey
Last week I posted a poll to try and figure out some of the numbers behind the newly implemented faction transfers, and now that we've got quite a few votes in there, it's probably a time to look at what we got and see if we can make any sense of it. The most conclusive data there is the answer above: about 18.6% of our reader polled said that yes, they had made a faction transfer already. That sounds high to me -- maybe it's because WoW.com readers know about the faction transfer service that more of them may have taken advantage of it. But if it's true that 19% of players did take advantage of the transfer service, then 570,000 of the around 3 million US players have switched factions, making Blizzard $17.1 million in gross revenue alone, just in the last week since it's opened.The other questions were a little hairier -- I tried to ask people not to answer if they didn't fit the criteria for each question, and there's no way to tell for sure that's what happened. Also, lots of people wanted to see the answers without voting, and unfortunately, our voting system doesn't allow a clear way to do that (I have since checked with our tech guys, who say that the solution we came up with, voting without choosing an answer, did not affect the poll). But after the break, we can try to suss some conclusions out of the data anyway.
Xbox Live US presidential election poll results
Following up on some presidential election polling results from September, Microsoft has revealed the results of its Xbox Live polling from the Halloween weekend. Obama jumped 10%, garnering 53% of the vote, while McCain gained two points for 33%, with 14% still undecided. Curiously, the Xbox Live poll had a similar Obama result to one done by CNN that same weekend.On the "issues poll" conducted at the same time, "jobs and the economy" took the top spot with 35%. Meanwhile, education, environment, health care and foreign policy all received percentages in the mid- to high-teens. Microsoft notes that as part of the "Rock the Vote" campaign, a million pieces of election-specific materials were downloaded from Live, along with 80,000 voter registration forms. And, once again, don't forget to vote today!
