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Analysts: iMac to take over 25% of PC sales, Mac to see 31% growth
We're only days away from the release of the iPad, and that means analysts are doing crazy business -- they're laying out as many predictions as they can before theory becomes actual numbers. Our friend Gene Munster is first -- he says that despite the introduction of a brand new category, Mac sales will be even better than investors expect this quarter, with a whopping 26% to 31% year-over-year growth. Apparently retail data suggests that Macs are flying off of the shelves, and that Apple should end up with almost 3 million Macs sold in the March quarter. PC sales in general are also expected to increase, with the iMac carrying a whole quarter of all desktop growth this year. Desktop sales are finally headed upwards for the first time in a few years, and along with bigger sales numbers in terms of netbooks and notebooks, Apple's iMac platform is leading the charge. International sales are also expected to drive the PC market -- if the numbers are right, this will be the first time ever that sales internationally take up 50% of the desktop PC market. Interesting predictions, all. There's no question, I think, that Apple will make plenty of money this quarter. The question going forward will be whether the iPad steals sales that would have gone to the iPhone or to a MacBook. But if the past numbers with the iPhone are any indication, big interest in the portable devices actually drives Apple's desktop sales as well.
Analyst asks how much would it take for you to switch TV providers
Ready to jump ship from your current TV provider? The latest research from Strategy Analytics indicates you wouldn't be alone if that's the case, with 68% of U.S. TV customers saying they're willing to switch for a 20% price discount. However, users getting TV from their phone company like FiOS or U-Verse had the highest satisfaction levels, well above those of cable and satellite. We're not surprised cutting costs by 1/5 for comparable service would at least give users cause to think about jumping ship, we're more interested in hearing from the 32% that wouldn't, and why. Love FiOS that much? Can't live without Xfinity? Let us know.
Component shortages lead analysts to forecast rise in prices of personal electronics
As you might well know, we're not the biggest fans of analyst blather, but this piece of research by Gartner is backed by some substantial numbers. The FT reports that DRAM prices have recently risen by 23 percent, followed closely by LCD prices with a 20 percent jump, both in response to the financial crisis the whole globe seems to be suffering from. Because the effects of recently renewed investment in capacity building won't be felt for a while, we're told to prepare for higher prices throughout this year -- a significant combo breaker from the previous decade's average of around 7.8 percent drops. Oh well, let's just cling to the encouraging signs for the future and ignore this bump on the road to gadget nirvana. [Thanks, Ben W]
DJ Hero sales 'modest,' analyst says; Activision refuses to comment
Lazard Capital Markets analyst Colin Sebastian told Gamasutra that, while the gaming industry is currently "stable," sales figures of Activision's critically-lauded DJ Hero look to be only "modest" in the US -- an understatement in the UK. Continuing the pricing trend of peripheral-based titles, DJ Hero retails for $120 for its standard edition and $200 for its premium, "Renegade" edition. According to Sebastian, consumers are "showing price sensitivity" toward games with price points greater than $100.In recent history, the trend of peripheral-based releases has fallen short of sales expectations. Internet-famous Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter -- along with others in the field of "professional guessing" -- recently halved holiday sales predictions for Guitar Hero 5 and The Beatles: Rock Band; after both fell short of initial sales predictions.According to Cowen Group analyst Doug Creutz, the falling projections of peripheral games reflect both the casual consumer's decision to reduce spending on games, as well as the possibility that gamers are losing interest in the played-out rhythm genre.When contacted by Joystiq, Activision refused to comment on the matter. With no less than three new rhythm titles on the horizon, we presume publishers hope the trend of sluggish peripheral-based game sales comes to a screeching halt; like the days of disco music and, apparently, outlining the objectives of major marketing campaigns.
iPhone beats Wii, DS, PSP: 'fastest hardware growth in consumer tech history'
If you wonder why analysts love the iPhone, wonder no longer! Those rascally number crunchers just love to make bold proclamations and Apple's iPhone / iPod Touch ecosystem allow them to do just that. Let's start with Mary Meeker, internet analyst at Morgan Stanley, who told the Web 2.0 Summit crowd yesterday that the iPhone and iPod Touch (which share a common software platform) exhibited the "fastest hardware user growth in consumer tech history"! Don't believe her? Check out that chart. Those numbers even make the DS look pedestrian. Couple Meeker's research with DFC Intelligence analyst David Cole's assertion that the iPhone and iPod Touch devices will be the "primary drivers of mobile game market sales over the coming years" and you've got what those of us in the biz call "consensus." Still think it's not a real gaming platform?
Analyst: DS and PSP growth 'peaked,' iPhone to drum future growth
DFC Intelligence analyst David Cole thinks that Nintendo and Sony devices will still lead the handheld market by 2014, but that the iPhone/iPod Touch will drive growth, thanks to a little thing called the App Store. IndustryGamers took note of the new report, where the analyst believes that the worldwide mobile and portable games market will reach $11.7 billion by 2014, which includes the PSP and DS, with Apple's devices pushing 24 percent of software sales.The company found that of over 8,000 surveyed respondents, 54 and 69 percent of North Americans and Europeans, respectively, had played a game on their phone in the last year. The report found that the the most popular service for purchasing apps for their phone was Apple's App Store -- shocking, right?
Join TUAW for Apple Q4 earnings call liveblog at 5 PM EDT today
Time flies when you're having fun -- it seems like it was only a few weeks ago that we were enjoying the Q3 earnings report from Apple, Inc. Well, today the wizards of Cupertino are on the phone again with top Wall Street analysts to report how the company did during the fourth quarter (July - September, 2009). Many analysts are expecting Apple to continue its recession-defying high wire act, with an analyst poll by Thomson Reuters Financial showing an earnings forecast of US$1.42 per share. That's 13 percent over the same quarter a year ago, and higher than Apple's own forecast of US$1.18 - US$1.23 per share. As usual, we'll be covering the earnings call via CoverItLive. Drop by TUAW at approximately 5 PM EDT (2 PM PDT) and join us. Bring your questions, and we'll supply the news and commentary.
Analysts: Windows 7 may boost Mac sales
Most electronics industry analysis is obvious at best and misinformed at worst, but this one made us chuckle. Analyst firm Broadpoint AmTech has released a report that claims that, rather than diminish sales of OS X, Microsoft's impending release of Windows 7 may actually help sell Macs. They cite the chart above, which seems to show a boost (especially after Vista) in Mac sales right after Microsoft releases a new OS version.Now, even they admit they're making connections here that probably aren't there -- there are tons of factors involved in both sales of Windows OSes and Mac computers (we'd just mention that Windows 7 seems to be getting fairly good reviews so far, and while no one would argue that Vista wasn't a disaster, I'd argue that iPods and iPhones were much better "Mac sales helpers" after 2001 and 2007 than Windows would ever be), and there's no real evidence here that Microsoft's releases have any bearing at all on their competitors' numbers.But it is a nice thought for us Mac faithful to hang on to anyway -- in the next few weeks, as Windows users vibe on their new and shiny and have their super fun release parties, we can know that if we just wait, Mac sales will eventually have their day.[via Apple Insider]
Rumors of a Pre-less Verizon "off base" according to analysts
A dubious rumor from The Street floating around about how Verizon was snubbing the Pre due to lackluster sales and no outlet for its VCast Store (which was a bit too thin to make it onto these virtual pages, in fact) has been questioned by a couple of analysts today. According to Deutsche Bank's Jonathan Goldberg and Morgan Keegan & Co's Tavis McCourt, a combination of supply chain orders and Palm's own 2010 financial projections -- not to mention Verizon's long history with Palm -- all point to a Pre launch on Verizon early next year, as previously rumored by the WSJ and confirmed by Verizon itself in July. Jonathan specifically called the new rumor "off base" and "incorrect," while Tavis says that "We do not have insight as to the marketing support Palm will get from Verizon, but we see little risk in not getting a placement at this carrier." Analyst fight! Read - Analyst debunk on AllThingsD Read - Original story on The Street
New iMacs and MacBooks coming soon?
Maybe so, if you believe the predictions of some analysts at Wedge Partners. They proclaim in their neverending analyst-y wisdom that in the next few weeks, Apple will again refresh its lines of iMacs and MacBooks, including a slimmer iMac and an only slightly updated MacBook. Why would Apple announce such a thing, especially so soon after the recent June revamp? Windows 7 is apparently the answer -- Apple wants to distract from Microsoft's big release, according to the analysts Personally, it all sounds kind of hokey to us -- Apple's already got their back-to-school lineup all set, and while there probably is room for one more update before the holiday season, it's hard to believe they're going to announce some extremely minor updates in a desperate grab against Windows 7. And not even the analysts will guess at a netbook or tablet release -- they say neither one of those is coming up for an announcement any time soon. You have to think that if Apple is doing one more update before the holidays, it really will come up in the next few weeks, so by the time Halloween candy starts dropping in pillowcases, we should know for sure. [via PC World]
Analysts split on chance of slimmer Xbox 360
When the first Xbox got old, Microsoft gave it Old Yeller treatment, though the metaphor would be more accurate if the beleaguered mutt had been forcibly stuffed into a rocket and shot into the sun. Some analysts think the 360 may get a kinder treatment later in its life cycle with a new form factor in the vein of Sony's new slim PS3. "I think it is a question of when not if. However, the when part is a big uncertainty ... rumors have been going on for a long time. I think people were asking me the same question last year at this time," David Cole of DFC Intelligence told IndustryGamers. Others are less convinced, like Arvind Bhatia of Sterne Agee who said, "It would be nice but I don't think they have to. I think Natal will be killer app that will help keep the momentum for the 360 next year. I do think they need to cut the price by at least $50." So, since the analysts can't seem to agree, we thought we'd put the question to you, the readers: %Poll-33653%
HTC sees revenue falling due to "delays in product launches"
HTC's been on somewhat of a hot streak here lately, but word on the street has it that the aforesaid outfit may not be able to ship all of its forthcoming handsets on time. A new Wall Street Journal report on falling revenue in the HTC camp notes that an undisclosed amount of delays, a larger-than-anticipated drop in contract orders and lower-than-expected sales in China could lead to drooping income in the short term, and some analysts are pointing out that the company's average selling price per phone is sliding due to looming Android competition from the likes of Motorola and Sony Ericsson. Aside from the Touch Pro2 that'll probably never, ever land on Sprint, HTC has about a gazillion other rumored handsets on the horizon, but it's hard to know for sure which "product launches" are expected to be stalled. So, is HTC secretly retooling a smattering of its handsets in order to stay one step ahead of SE and Moto? Or are old fashioned supply chain inefficiencies to blame?
Analysts: US game sales slump to continue until second half of '09
The go-to game industry analysts see the downward sales in March as a trend that could continue over the next several months. Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter notes that hardware sales were down 19 percent year-over-year and he doesn't see a reversal of software sales in the "near term." Lazard Capital's Colin Sebastian is concerned that the industry continues to see sales "concentrated among a small group of top-tier software publishers and first-party platform holders." He believes this leaves little room for ... well, anyone else in the near future.Both gurus see the second half of the year working out better for the industry. Edge notes that US industry sales have hit $4.25 billion during the first quarter, the same place they were during 2008's record-breaking year. [Image]
Macs still cheaper when you look at TCO
With all of the iPhone news lately, some of you may have worried that we're forgetting what got us here: Apple computers, not the other gadgets and doohickeys they sell. But worry not -- we're still Mac-crazy, which is why we'll still link to a Grade A smackdown on the old argument that Macs are more expensive than PCs. After a few analysts question whether or not Macs are worth it (as if buying a powerful and easy-to-use computer was ever not worth it), MacsimumNews' Dennis Sellers pulls out the big guns, and shows that report after report will make it clear that when you compare the quality vs. cost that you get with an Apple to what you get with a PC, the Mac will almost always win.Sure, if you compare a new MacBook Pro with the bargain laptops you'll find on the shelves at Best Buy, you'll be seeing a smaller charge on your credit card. But when you compare the total cost of ownership due to what's actually in those laptops (and the experience you'll have with each computer), the Mac is cheaper than ever.[via MacBytes]
Blu-ray player prices dropped 12% in Q3, still in just 1.7% of US homes
Here are a few more numbers to chew on as you try to decipher what's really going on in the world of Blu. During Q3 2008, Blu-ray player prices on the whole slipped 12% to an average of $350. While that may sound pretty good to you, just 1.7% of American homes posses a standalone Blu-ray deck. Of course, that number leaves out the legions of PS3 owners who gleefully enjoy BD flicks on their Sony-branded console, but it still pales in comparison to the 26% of US homes that currently have HDTV from a cable or satellite provider. The figures, which were quoted in a recent Wall Street Journal article, are used to assert that BD still hasn't "arrived" here on US soil, and for most, HD programming or vanilla DVDs are just fine. Our take? Well, we can't argue the numbers, but we're giddy to see how they change after Black Friday 2008 (and the holiday season) takes its toll.
Analyst: Canceling Tiberium hurt EA's credibility
Talking with Gamasutra about EA's recent decision to abandon development on Tiberium, Janco Partners analyst Mike Hickey believes such a move could actually hurt EA's credibility in the long run. "Continued lack of management execution and/or product quality, damages new management's credibility and dampens our excitement for the company's shares," said Hickey who also expects EA to lower their fiscal year performance expectations. But all analysts don't agree with that assessment, as Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter predicts that the Tiberium cancellation actually adds credibility to the company saying that "canceling a bad game goes a long way toward preserving the quality of the overall lineup."What say you? Has your opinion of EA changed for the better or for the worse with their decision to axe Tiberium?[Via Gamesindustry.biz]
Analyst says Nintendo could fire first next-gen shot
We haven't cut Lazard Capital Markets analyst Colin Sebastian's picture out of Analyst Tiger Beat to tape onto our lockers yet, as unfamiliar as we are with his services. So take it with a grain of salt when we tell you that Sebastian thinks Nintendo's next console may release sooner than the others and could be a souped-up Wii with DVD playback capabilities....Yeah, that kind of seems like a gimme, but Nintendo has proven itself a notoriously hard company to predict. Let's just say that if he nails this ... we might be able to make some space for his mug between the Jonas Brothers and Billy Pidgeon.
Analysts: Xbox 360 outsold PS3 in July
Prior to the release of the official July NPD video game sales numbers that are set to come out this Thursday, the gaming industry's best analysts have released their console sales predictions and things are looking peachy for Microsoft and the Xbox 360.Analysts Michael Pachter and Jesse Divnich both agree that, after a bad June, the Xbox 360's July hardware sales will overtake the Playstation 3 thanks to the announcement of the 60GB Xbox 360 and low price of the 20GB model. Pachter is pegging the 360 to have sales in the 275K range compared to the PS3's 250K, while Divnich is a bit more 360 optimistic setting July 360 sales at 325K compared to the PS3's 275K. Whatever July's NPD numbers end up being, we have a feeling that our analyst friends will be correct and the 360 will have had a decent July. Pass the champagne!
Analysts: Macs will continue to take market share from PCs
Are you sitting down for this one? Good. Here goes: Apple is going to keep taking market share from "traditional PCs." I know, it's a real shocker. But so says Zacks Investment Research (which is not, apparently, run by a dude named Zack as you'd think). They say that consumers are enjoying Apple's innovations, and that a strong product line lead by the iPod, iPhone, and the MacBook Air will continue to increase Apple's business and give them a bigger piece of the personal computing pie. Who knew?But Zacks isn't jumping into anything -- they still say that the iPod line will slow down over the next few years, so they're going "hold" with AAPL. Still, it's a good thing they told us about that marketshare thing. Without analysts like these, we'd have no idea what we're buying lately.[via MacBytes]
Analysts predict big jump in May game sales
Even though NPD is set to release its monthly drip of "official" North American console and game sales data later this week, some impatient people just can't sit on their hands and wait. Those people include game industry analysts, many of whom are predicting a large year-over-year jump in software revenues for the month of May.The exact size of the predicted jump ranges from a 30% increase from Lazard Capital Market's Colin Sebastian to a 43% bump from Pacific Crest Securities analyst Evan Wilson. Medbush Morgan's prolific prognosticator Michael Pachter splits the difference, predicting a 39% increase in sales. Call of Duty 4, Guitar Hero III and Rock Band are expected to continue their sustained strong sales, along with relative newcomers Wii Fit, Mario Kart Wii and Grand Theft Auto IV.Speaking of GTA4, Pachter doesn't think the game will lead to a significant bump in system sales for either the PS3 or Xbox 360. He forecasts the Wii will again dominate monthly console sales with 750,000 units sold, compared to 250,000 Xbox 360s and 225,000 PS3s. In other news, we predict the sun will rise in the east tomorrow.
