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Analysts say shortages could last all year
Will you inconsiderate jerks stop buying Wiis already? You're totally making it hard to find them in stores. Think of the children!Okay, we would never really say that. We love you all. We were just trying a new strategy to help alleviate the continuing Wii shortages. We may need some kind of tactic, because analysts at Lazard Capital Markets are predicting that the demand will continue to exceed supply through the holiday season.How do they think the situation will be resolved? Increased production? No, they think people will eventually lose interest in the Wii because of its weaker processing power. Don't hurt yourselves slamming on the "comment" button![Via Game|Life]
Analysts: Halo 3 will finally make Xbox division profitable
Four analysts at Goldman-Sachs have predicted that Bungie's Halo 3 will rake in over $170 million in revenue for the quarter. The analysts also assert that the game will put the Xbox division in the black for its first quarter ever with just the first week of sales. Other notes by the analysts: The figure is based on estimates that 4.2 million copies shipped in the quarter and an installed user base of 13.2 million by September. That would mean Halo 3 would be purchased by nearly one-third of Xbox 360 owners. It is assumed that Microsoft keeps 80 percent of the retail price on first-party titles. Halo 2 sold 7.5 million in its first quarter of release, with 2.38 million on the first day. That amounts to 38 percent of the user base. Recently Robbie Bach, president of Microsoft's Entertainment & Devices Division, stated that he expects the Xbox to be profitable next year. We have very little doubt that Master Chief can pull the Xbox brand out of the red for at least the first quarter or two, but can Microsoft fill the void with other titles and services once the momentum slows down? [Via Xbox 360 Fanboy]
Analysts believe Sony's Kutaragi was squeezed out
It's hard not to imagine industry analysts getting along famously with PlayStation father, Ken Kutaragi. Holding hands, dancing in a circle and spouting outrageous claims at each other, they'd have a jolly good session of prediction, scrutiny and hopscotch. In response to Mr. Kutaragi's recently announced plans to leave the circle, several analysts have expressed belief that his departure is partly motivated by the parent company yelling from the outskirts of the park, insisting that, "You've had your fun, it's time to go." According to a GameDaily BIZ report, the PlayStation 3 may make for a particularly heavy golden hand to shake.Evan Wilson of Pacific Crest Securities tells Bloomberg.com that Kutaragi's retirement "is likely an indication Sony corporate isn't satisfied with the initial success of the PS3." The Washington Post calls it a "face-saving firing," quoting IDC's famous time traveling analyst, Billy Pidgeon, as saying, "Sony had too much hype and not enough delivery." Furthermore, an AG Edwards analyst, Bill Kreher, tells GameDaily BIZ, "The PS3 obviously has had a rough start and I would question whether Kutaragi would still be leaving if the console had been better received by the marketplace."Still, some analysts agree with Sony's official line that Kutaragi had left of his own accord in pursuit of "new challenges beyond the world of PlayStation." Michael Pachter of Wedbush Morgan Securities states that the decision likely had more to do with software and the PSP. "It can't be [Kutaragi's] fault that the cost of the box was so high, and I have a tough time believing he insisted on Blu-ray. They probably just all agreed it was time to move on." He and a few other analysts go on to note that Kaz Hirai will prove to be an effective leader and a better instigator of success in the years to come.
Analyst: 360 sales below expectations
Analyst Lazard Capital Markets says North American Xbox 360 sales are tracking closer to 4.5 million rather than the previously expected nice round 5 million::"Xbox 360 supplies improved significantly over the course of the year following initial hardware constraints, and it appears that pent-up consumer demand has largely been fulfilled. However, it is possible that an expanding software release calendar, as well as limited supplies of new PS3 and Wii hardware could help boost 360 unit sales over the holidays."Yep, I hear sales go up at Christmas. I wonder if anybody with a desktop and a grasp of the obvious can be an analyst. Of course, they are raising expectations for the PS3 and Wii.
Apple's US market share still falling and rising with the tides
Yesterday's prelim 4th quarter report was great news for Apple's health as a manufacturer of personal computers - they shipped over 1.6 million Macs, the most ever in a quarter and 30% more than the previous quarter. Today's news of a rise to 6.1 percent market share in the U.S. from Gartner, however, has the Mac web doing the market share dance all over again, as just a year ago this month it was the NPD Group reporting that Apple's U.S. market share - excluding online sales - had risen to 6.6 percent. The confusion ensues when considering MacNN's conflicting report from Gartner claiming Apple's U.S. share just rose to 6.1 percent. Of course where and how these different groups are getting their numbers is unbeknownst to this blogger, but methinks something might have been lost in translation between all these analysts.Still, while market share numbers might be getting a little fuzzy as of late, we can at least trust Apple's announcement of selling the most.Macs.evar in a quarter, and that's alright with me.
Japanese PS3 games to cost up to 9,800 ($85 USD) [update 1]
[Update: Sony announced that pricing for first-party games would be ¥5980 ($50 USD) while third-parties have announced higher prices, like Sega's ¥7140 ($60 USD). Nothing to see here.]We'll begin by clearly and emphatically stating that the following information has no official bearing on the price of PS3 games in the U.S. or other countries.IGN is sourcing Japanese journalist Munechika Nishida's "multiple information sources" that PS3 games will be between ¥8,800 ($75 USD) and ¥9,800 ($85 USD). Development costs are being blamed for the pricey games. The article also states that third party developer support is lagging for the PS3 and that Sony will switch to a "traditional business model" where they'll sell the PS3 at a lower price and recoup the money off of software sales.The big question is if Nishida's information winds up being true for Japan, what's it going to mean for the rest of the planet? Maybe non-Japanese gamers will pay less for games, considering we're not even getting that PS3 price drop. Then again, maybe not.[Thanks, Martin]
PC gaming "becoming a niche" -- analysts speak
Three analysts are spilling their thoughts over at Gamasutra, examining the state of the PC gaming industry at the moment. With console platforms offering an appealing piracy-free environment, it's no wonder soundbites like "becoming a niche" and "retail spending ... will decline" are springing readily to mind; however, the overall tone is mostly positive.Will the PC market become one of digital distribution, MMOs and casual games only? Analysts disagree; digital distribution has limits, but offers the opportunity for more revenue and profit. MMOs and casual games are on the rise, but the "Games for Windows" initiative may provide a much needed consolidation and marketing effort for PC games in other genres as well.
The Intelligence Factor: analysts speak out... again
We know, we know. You've been seeing this regurgitated analyst stuff for months now, and you'd be hard pressed to find something that cites Sony in a good position at this point. Well, unfortunately, DFC Intelligence isn't ready to change that trend."Why should anyone even bother reading something from a bunch of researchers outside of the industry anyway," you ask? Actually, DFC has been covering the games biz ever since 1993. They've been around the block a few times, so even if you don't like what you're reading here (and if you're a Sony fan, you won't) it's still just food for thought.Lots of research and 600 pages later, they've come out with a comprehensive forecast of the industry. What they say is that "two things are clear: 1) the high price of the PlayStation 3 is going to slow overall industry growth, especially for software and 2) if Sony does not change its current strategy for the PS3 the system will probably end up in third place in installed base. Microsoft and Nintendo have been handed that golden opportunity and both companies have a chance to make their systems the market leader."What's this about software growth and Sony inhibiting it? On the contrary, with their free online platform, Sony could be poised to offer all kinds of commercial and independent (heck, even homebrew) games to a wider audience right out of the box. This could be just as much of a golden opportunity if they play their cards right. As for Blu-ray and the other software medium, we've already heard from one developer that he believes it could make all the difference. So take this analyst report as you will, the rest of us are waiting for November.[Via Joystiq]
Toshiba taking $200 loss on each HD-A1, sez iSuppli
We've long wondered how Toshiba's able to price its HD-A1 HD DVD player at $500 while the Blu-ray camp will be charging $1,000 and up for their next-gen machines, and now the eggheads over at iSuppli are claiming to have the answer. After furiously running all the numbers through their high-tech calculators, the same company that brought us breakdowns of the iPod nano and Xbox 360 production costs is estimating that it takes $674 worth of parts to build an HD-A1 -- bringing the total cost to well over $700 when you include labor, packaging, etc. -- which means that Toshiba is taking a $200 loss on each unit sold. Rarely seen outside the world of videogame hardware, this pricing strategy is usually employed to build up a customer base for the devices' highly-profitable software, but in Toshiba's case, achieving significant HD DVD penetration prior to the Blu-ray rollout was probably even more important than the few bucks they make from each HD DVD disc that gets sold. Unfortunately for those of us waiting on a burner to hit the market before making the HD optical plunge, it doesn't sound like Toshiba will also be willing take a loss on that RD-A1 introduced the other day, as its $3,400 pricetag seems to more than cover every little component they're stuffing in there.[Via HDBeat]
Apple rumors are fun when they're about HDTV
Nothing we love more than rumor mongering analyst predictions at HDBeat, the latest of which has revived the high definition or HDTV-based video iPod rumor. No news on possible Intel Viiv-based plasmas or MovieBeam integration, but we wouldn't rule out a surprise appearance by Bigfoot at this point.The announcement, whatever it is, will be made at a just-announced press event February 28th, so check back here on Tuesday to see what is what. What do you think: is there anything video or high-def related coming out of Apple's closet next week?
