analysts
Latest
Tragedy in Japan hasn't "meaningfully impacted iPad 2 supply"
The Japanese earthquake had a devastating effect on the people of Japan and temporarily shut down many manufacturing facilites. Analysts speculated this disaster might have produced a shortage of key components used in the electronics manufacturing process, but according to Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster, this shortage will have minimal effect on the future supply of the iPad 2. Munster expects the current shortage of the iPad 2 to continue into the June 2011 quarter, but this shortage is the result of excessive demand, not component production issues. Both the iPad and the iPhone 4 could see, at most, a one to two week delay as a result of earthquake-related shutdowns. This is good news for Apple customers looking to score an iPad 2, especially those international fans who waited in long lines today, only to walk away empty-handed. Of course, there are many problems Japan faces these days that are much more important than producing computers, but it's good to hear that this isn't another issue to deal with. A resumption of Japanese manufacturing will also help to stimulate the economy in Japan and help rebuild the devastated country.
Yuanta Securities analysts claim iPad 2 will be delayed until June (Updated)
The iPad 2 may be delayed due to "production bottlenecks" at manufacturing company Hon Hai Precision, parent company of Foxconn. This delay is partially the result of unspecified changes in the iPad 2 design made by Apple before the Lunar New Year on February 3, according to a report from Yuanta Securities analysts Vincent Chen and Alison Chen. "Our checks suggest new issues are being encountered with the new production and it is taking time to resolve them," writes Chen. "As a number of Android 3.0 tablets are being launched in April and May, the delay in iPad 2 shipments may give the Android camp a brief window of opportunity." A two month delay would push the iPad launch close to Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference and the expected launch date of the iPhone 5. It is possible that Apple could tie the announcement and launch of the two iOS devices together, but the retail debut of two extremely popular devices at the same would be a logistical nightmare. A delay would also cut into analyst's forecast of 30.6 million iPad shipments for 2011, a figure that could drop to 23 million following a delay. We should note this latest report contradicts previous rumors that suggest the iPad 2 has entered production and is on track for a March release. Both the Wall Street Journal and Japanese website MacOtakara claim to have sources that confirm the iPad 2 is rolling off Asian production lines. According to Bloomberg, an Apple representative in Hong Kong declined to comment on this delay, and Hon Hai spokesperson Edmund Ding was not reachable. Update: The Loop chimed in with a rebuttal that claims this rumor is absolutely not true. And AllThingsD also claim the iPad 2 will be introduced during a March 2 event.
Analysts explain, critique Guitar Hero's demise
Man, these analysts get a whiff of blood and you just can't pull them off the corpse, huh? Formerly beloved franchise Guitar Hero has been dead all of a couple of days, and these jackals are already baring their fangs on Gamasutra and digging in: "It had a great run, but it also had a steep fall and the customer demand just isn't there. That money can be spent on something that has better returns." -- Damn, Eric Handler of MKM Partners, you need to take it easy. "Prudent." -- Hey Michael Pachter, where's your basic human decency? "Declining sales as well as a less appealing profitability profile owing to the inclusion of a lower-margin peripheral hastened the decision to cancel the project." -- You, Edward Williams of BMO Capital Markets, are a monster. ... What's that? You're still not sated? You're no better than them! Here, vulture, go bask in the brutality for yourself.
CNBC: Apple should be world's most valuable company
Apple's latest earnings report has been available for three weeks, and analysts are chiming in with their 2011 assessment of the Cupertino company. Though Apple's stock dipped slightly after Steve Jobs announced another medical leave of absence, the release of the Verizon iPhone and Apple's 2011 forecast is causing the stock to rebound to an all-time high. Currently, the stock is trading at US$356, which is more than $160 higher than the 52-week low. Apple's stock is trending well and will continue to climb upward according to several analysts who have placed price targets as high as $550, though most are projecting an average price of $467. At its current trading price, Apple market value is hovering at $326 billion. A 32 percent increase into the upper $400s would push Apple's market value to $433.7 billion and propel it past Exxon Mobil, which currently has a market value of $423.2 billion. This continued climb has prompted some to question whether Apple is ripe for a stock split. The Cupertino company last split its stock in February 2005 when it was trading at $88.99 per share. Now that it is 690 percent higher than its 2005 level, some analysts are suggesting Apple may be ready to drop the price on its stock and let smaller investors into the fold. There are pros and cons to a split, not the least of which is Steve Jobs' desire to see the stock price climb higher. Apple won't comment on this possibility, officially stating "We have not announced any plans for a stock split." [Via Fortune]
When it comes to forecasting Apple's earnings, amateurs are better than the pros
The Challenge: predict seven key metrics of Apple's fiscal success over the past quarter -- such as sales numbers, profit margins, and gross revenue -- with the highest accuracy. The Competitors: In the blue corner, a bunch of amateur finance bloggers, and in the red corner, a cabal of professional analysts making mad dough at banks and trading houses. The Conclusion: whatever you're paying for your "expert" advice on the future financial wellbeing of Apple, or any other tech stock for that matter, stop. Just... stop.
Verizon iPhone has devs, analysts excited by increased audience
As expected, Verizon announced today that it would become the second US company to carry Apple's iPhone on its service, finally offering an alternative to AT&T, which up until now has had an iron grip on the popular device. Game developers are thrilled at the prospect of a whole new audience for a platform so friendly to mobile games, with some analysts and devs predicting mobile gaming revenue could double as soon as the end of this year. Of course, devs are aware that there could be some issues, both with bringing scads of new customers onto the platform as well as transferring some customers from AT&T over to Verizon. But on the whole, they're giddy with optimism -- analysts are saying that as many as 13 million new iPhones could be sold on the Verizon service, and each one of those is a potential new customer for iOS developers.
Samsung nabs Tegra 2 for Galaxy Tab 2, Google makes Tegra the Honeycomb reference platform?
It sounds like all of NVIDIA's wrangling and cajoling finally paid off, if a couple of analysts are to be believed -- both say the company's dual-core Tegra 2 chipset is racking up wins in the tablet space. We've seen it seemingly raise the bar for smartphone silicon in the LG Star and tease us in slate after slate, but Citigroup's Glen Yeung says that Samsung has "placed a sizeable order with Nvidia for Tegra 2 chips in the first half of 2011, geared for both tablets and smartphones," and BMO Capital Markets analyst Ambrish Srivastava anticipates the next Galaxy Tab will be one of the devices that use it. If that sounds obvious, remember that Samsung was supposed to be producing a dual-core chip of its own. What could cause companies to embrace Tegra 2, if that's indeed what's happening? Any number of reasons, to be sure, but Glen Yeung also says that Google has made Tegra the reference design for Honeycomb, aka Android 3.0, and so Tegra 2 may sound like a fast track to victory in the budding tablet space. Here's hoping it's a good choice for consumers, too.
55 people think the iPad is more valuable than the Galaxy Tab (updated)
If you read tech news today, expect to see a story making the rounds concerning a "consumer poll" rating the iPad versus the Galaxy Tab. According to the report, an "overwhelming majority" of consumers prefer Apple's tablet over its nearest Android competitor -- a whopping 85 percent of those queried felt the iPad had a higher perceived value than the Tab. Sounds shocking, right? Except there's one small problem. The "survey" (and really, you have to use the term loosely here) consisted of 65 people. Let's just say that again: 65 respondents. That's problem number one. Problem number two is that the survey was conducted by Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster, who is not only using a bizarre and somewhat useless metric like "perceived value" to judge these devices, but is also known for wildly miscalculating sales numbers and expectations for Apple products. In fact, Gene Munster should probably be close to the top of the most wanted list for irresponsible analysts. Some of his famous misses? Take the wildly speculative report that Apple would sell 5.6m iPads in 2010 (a baseless prediction which he quickly reassessed to more reasonable digits... the day after the device's launch), or the prediction that Apple would build its own search engine (so far so good!), and of course, Gene's news that Apple will have an HDTV on the market by 2011. Did we mention the $1,000 AAPL stock price call? No? Okay. So this latest report, in which Gene apparently just polled the families living on his block, seems beyond disingenuous. The margin of error on a group of 65 people is so high that it makes the results of the iPad vs. Galaxy Tab study all but meaningless, and further demonstrates the insidious, dangerous power of some analysts and their fantasy football stock manipulations. The moral of the story? Next time you see the names Gene and Munster in the same sentence, don't just take the news with a grain of salt -- use the whole shaker. Update: Piper Jaffray analyst Andrew Murphy (one of the other researchers on this report) got in touch and gave us some background on the sourcing and methodology for finding respondents. In his words: The respondents were chosen randomly on their way in/out of a large national retail chain. After spending time with each device, they were asked which they'd prefer and what a reasonable price for each would be. It's worth noting that that information is found nowhere in the report itself, nor is any other detail provided (type of store, geographic location, age / socioeconomic background, etc.), though this charming section is included: Research Disclosures Piper Jaffray was making a market in the securities of Apple, Inc. at the time this research report was published. Piper Jaffray will buy and sell Apple, Inc. securities on a principal basis.
Report: In-app purchases to overtake download revenues by 2013
Here's an interesting report from Juniper Research. According to their work, mobile app revenues will reportedly grow from the current US $6 billion to a whopping $11 billion by 2015. And the majority of that revenue will come not from the standard download fee, but instead from in-app purchases, according to Juniper. The firm claims that in-app purchase revenue will top one-off download fees by 2013. That seems hard to believe, given my current anecdotal usage, but there's no question that in-app purchases are growing by leaps and bounds as a form of sizable revenue for app developers. Jupiter's report also says that the biggest problem facing mobile app growth is just plain discovery -- with so many apps out there, it's hard for users to find new apps that they like, so what you tend to see is clumps of apps getting popular rather than users going out and finding their own favorites. Services like OpenFeint and Game Center have certainly helped to share information about new apps, and of course sites like ours try to spotlight as many apps as we can. But with a store full of hundreds of thousands of apps in it, it's tough to let more than a few hundred really shine. Maybe as we move forward, developers and Apple will come up with better solutions to help do that.
Analyst: Apple's sales in China could triple in two years
Here's more good news for Apple from the Chinese front: Katy Huberty and Mathew Schneider from Morgan Stanley have released a report saying that Apple could make as much as $9 billion from China in the fiscal year of 2012, as opposed to $2.9 billion in the last fiscal year. That kind of growth would be better than the rest of the world, which means that if there are any problems with Apple's revenue in the US and Europe over the next few years, China will likely make up for them. The report says all of that growth will come from two major factors. First, Apple is expected to expand its sales network in China. Apple has already founded four major retail stores and begun device sales through China Unicom and its online store, but there will have to be more ways for Chinese customers to find and buy Apple products in the future. Secondly, as we've heard before, China is about to go through a major surge in the middle class, bringing more people than ever into the range of buying and using Apple's products. If Apple can take advantage of that upcoming rise in income over much of the country, it'll be well on the way to the $9 billion number. This isn't a huge surprise -- we've known for a while that China will be a big source of growth for a lot of consumer electronics companies in the next few years. But it's interesting to see some numbers out there about just how big Apple's business in China might get.
iSuppli: Apple to sell 120 million iPads by 2012
Many analysts were disappointed when Apple announced 4.2 million iPads sold in Q4 during the conference call yesterday. The consensus -- or hope -- among many on Wall Street was a 5m+ iPad quarter. But if iSuppli's report today is any indication, the Wall Street boys have nothing to worry about when it comes to future iPad sales. iSuppli states that due to increasing component availability (a lack of which, they suggest, is the only thing that kept Apple from selling more iPads), Apple is set to sell a total of 13.8 million units in 2010, up from 12.9 million units. For 2011, iSuppli has raised total iPad sales estimates from 36.5 million to 43.7 million. It gets even better for the tablet maker in 2012, when iSuppli estimates Apple will sell 63.3 million units, up from their original estimate of 50.4 million. If iSuppli's estimates are correct, that means that by the end of 2012 -- just 2 years and 9 month since the iPad went on sale -- Apple will have sold 120 million of them. Now that's a lot of iPads. The increased forecasts are due to greater than expected interest in the iPad from business and education institutions, and also due to the fact that the iPad is now available in more retail outlets like Amazon, Verizon stores, Target, and Walmart.
Apple may have sold 4 million Macs in Q4 2010
Fortune is suggesting that Apple could have sold as many as four million Macs this quarter, which would be pretty astounding. PC sales in general have been down lately, but the Mac seems to be immune, still selling like hotcakes. Hitting the four million mark in the last quarter of 2010 would be a record for Mac sales, and that's huge, especially when most of the focus on Apple (even from the company) has been on "mobile devices." In fact, Fortune suggests that those devices may have had an effect on the numbers -- customers coming in to the stores to look at or buy iPhones and iPads may have walked out with either new Macs, or just a better impression of the computers. Back-to-school sales were also very important for the company, and that late July refresh didn't hurt either. Even if Apple didn't break the 4m mark, it's very likely that this will be an outstanding year for Apple's desktop and laptop sales anyway. We'll know more next week -- Apple's 4th quarter earnings call takes place on the 18th, and we'll be listening live to see what they say. Edit: A previous version of this post cited 4m as the total for 2010. It's only the total for the 4th quarter of this financial year.
Analysts weigh in on Panasonic's Jungle
New tech does not always equal gimme gimme -- according to several prominent analysts, Panasonic is set to engage in quite the uphill battle with its new handheld, The Jungle. Both Bill Pidgeon of M2 Research and David Cole of DFC Intelligence told IndustryGamers they believe the unit is "a non-starter." Colin Sebastian of Lazard Capital Markets said it looks like "an uphill challenge to launch a new portable gaming device unless there is some meaningful differentiation or access to proprietary content," while EEDAR's Jesse Divnich offered that its success hinges on third-party support, saying that, "with any hardware platform regardless of its quality, the absence of strong third-party support will most certainly end in failure." All valid points, but should these guys be giving the device the benefit of the doubt? As it stands right now, we don't know much about the system other than what it aims to do: give MMO players a dedicated piece of hardware so they can take their games on the go. Given how popular MMOs are (and, in turn, how much of the cash money they generate), from a business standpoint it would seem win-win; nobody else is offering something to MMO players who may want a bit of portability. But, on the other hand, the problem is -- at least according to these analysts -- that the handheld doesn't particularly fill a void that can't be filled by a netbook or laptop.
Analysts sound off on 3DS price and release date announcement
Over the past 24 hours, select members of the gaming industry peanut gallery have sounded off on Nintendo's recently announced launch plans for the 3DS. Many in the investment community balked at the high price and later-than-expected launch window, including Lazard Capital Markets' Colin Sebastian, who worries "shipment quantities to the U.S. next spring might be more constrained than originally anticipated." MF Global FXA Securities' Jay Defibaugh explained that those two qualms, combined with the devices apparent lack of 3G support, made the announcement a "worst-case scenario." Though many analysts appear to share these concerns, EEDAR, which expects the handheld to come to the US in March 2011 at $249 to $299, disagrees. "The higher price point allows Nintendo to incorporate new features such as 3D movies, camera, and game support," EEDAR noted in a report received by Joystiq yesterday, later adding, "a 2010 Holiday launch would severely impact both the quantity and quality of titles that could be made available by November 2010." Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter predicts that the market will bear the relatively high price of the handheld, though he expects the cost to drop to $250 when it arrives in the U.S.. For more of Pachter's predictions for Nintendo's western 3DS launch plans, check out our interview with the outspoken analyst.
Dell dropping Windows Phone 7 devices from its roadmap? (update: Dell responds, is definitely still in the game)
Now we don't have much more to go on here than some analyst chatter and a lengthy article from TechCrunch, but if you believe what you read, a major player has just dropped Windows Phone 7 devices from its roadmap. And that player is Dell. According to Jonathan Goldberg, an telecom analyst at Deutsche Bank, the only remaining partners currently working on Windows Phone 7 handsets are HTC, Samsung, and LG. If this is true (and that's a big if), that means that the seriously awesome looking Dell Lightning that we spied in leaks recently will never see the light of day -- as a WP7 device, at least. We already knew that HP was out of the game (instead focusing on webOS phones), but the casual suggestion that Dell has made for the door here is somewhat suspect. The company itself hasn't made any statements (we've reached out but have yet to hear back), and while Dell has certainly concentrated a lot of effort on Android devices recently, its partnership with Microsoft is long-standing (despite dabbling in the world of open source). If the story turns out to be true, it could spell mixed (if not outright bad) tidings for the Windows Phone 7 launch, which Goldberg alleges may cost Microsoft upwards of half a billion dollars -- no small fee. Losing two of the biggest computer-makers in the world can't feel very good when you're trying to fight your way back to relevancy, but at least on the bright side, neither HP nor Dell have a track record of making anything other than heroically mediocre handsets. Take this all with a grain of salt right now, however, as the author of the TechCrunch article provides no source for the statements from Goldberg, and... well, he's an analyst, and they're prone to making up all kinds of crazy things. We're investigating, and will let you know as soon as we have more info. Update: We've been pinged back by Dell's Matt Parretta, and he was 100 percent clear that Dell was most certainly still part of the Windows Phone 7 game. In the company's words: Any reports, or speculation, that report Dell will not support Windows Phone 7 are false... Microsoft announced Dell as a supporting partner at this year's Mobile World Congress and nothing's changed. We are excited to collaborate with Microsoft on Windows Phone 7, and are looking forward to bringing customers amazing mobile experiences. Furthermore, the analyst in question here (Jonathan Goldberg) has also reached out to us to clarify his statements, saying that he believes Dell is still a partner on Windows Phone 7, just not a launch partner. Dell was mum on release schedules, but one thing is clear -- they intend to follow through on this collaboration.
GameStop misses earnings target, used games make up biggest profits
[Image by moe_ on Flickr] Despite 99 new stores, continued strong used game sales and better performance than the rest of the retail video game industry, GameStop reported less-than-expected earnings for this year's second quarter, and delivered a fall forecast lower than analysts expected. Analysts were looking for $1.82 billion in sales this past quarter, but apparently the $1.8 billion GameStop earned in actual sales (31.4 percent of which came from used game sales) just wasn't good enough. Additionally, GameStop executives tried to convince analysts that they'd actually be saving money by spending $10 on a membership card and subscription to Game Informer, but analysts weren't interested, claiming that "all they wanted was to play Red Dead Redemption." Further attempts to sell the card also failed, despite assurances of 10 percent off used game purchases in the future.
ATI overtakes NVIDIA in discrete GPU shipments
You'd think with ATI having the performance, value and power efficiency lead for so long -- at least since the Radeon HD 4000 series -- NVIDIA would be in all kinds of trouble, but it's only now that AMD's graphics division has finally taken the lead in quarterly shipments. This is according to Mercury Research, whose analysts place the split at 51 to 49 percent in favor of ATI -- still a tightly contested thing, but it compares very favorably to the Red Team's 41% share in the same quarter last year. This data is concerned with discrete GPU shipments only (laptops included), whereas on the integrated front Intel continues to reign supreme with 54 percent of the market shipping its cheap and cheerful IGP units. ATI has made forward strides there as well, however, with 24.5% ranking ahead of NVIDIA's 19.8%. If Apple shifting its iMac and Mac Pro lines away from the Green livery wasn't enough, perhaps these numbers will finally start ringing some alarm bells over at NV HQ. [Thanks, Zubayer]
Roundup: Analyst commentary on Kinect pricing
Everybody has an opinion at the moment about Kinect's $150 price tag, but let's hear what the analysts who get paid for their opinions think. We've got reactions from EEDAR's Jesse Divnich, Lazard's Colin Sebastian and Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter, after the break.
Feuding analysts argue about whether the iPad is boosting Mac sales
Think it's only Apple faithful who are adding an iPad to their gadget cache? According to Chitika Research, that's not true. The online advertising firm keeps a close eye on which platforms are downloading its ads the most, and it says that Mac computers accounted for 10.3 percent of wasted bandwidth in April. That's up from 7.4 percent in the January - March timeframe (you know, the pre-iPad era), and Chitika Research Director Daniel Ruby says "90% of that increase was due to the iPad halo effect." Meanwhile, NPD analyst Stephen Baker believes that the boost is instead thanks to the new MacBook Pro models that were released at the same time, and Technology Business Research analyst Ezra Gottheil says "early data on the iPad indicated that most buyers were already in the Apple club." Who is right? Survey says... your guess is as good as ours, and any of theirs, apparently.
iAds could make a billion dollars, help Google make their deal
There's not a lot of details out about Apple's upcoming mobile advertising program, iAds, quite yet, but Broadpoint Amtech is already convinced it's a moneymaker. Analysts there say that the program could generate a whopping US$4.67 billion in revenue in just one year's time. Of course, that's a high-end guess, but even the medium figures are pretty amazing -- analyst Brian Marshall suggests that even conservatively, Apple could earn $2.48 billion. Realize what we're talking about here: this is more or less a from-scratch profit stream for Apple, and with developers receiving 60% of the revenue from iAds, Apple won't be the only company making money. In fact, Apple's good news may benefit Google, too -- CEO Eric Schmidt said that Apple's iAds announcement should convince those concerned that Google's deal with AdMob is good to go, and that the two companies will just be one big player in "a highly competitive market." Of course, Google has a bit more advertising experience than Apple -- it made most of its $23.7 billion revenue last year from its online advertising model. While iAds sounds big, it's not quite that big. Still, iAds will be big, and there's room to grow -- Apple is starting off with the mobile market, but don't forget that they've got a whole library of iTunes podcasts, and content space on AppleTV to sell as well. At this time next year, we might be reporting that Apple really has created a $2.5 billion-per-year income stream for themselves.
