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Analyst: PS3 to outsell 360 by more than 2:1 by 2012
It is always so much fun to post the thoughts of industry analysts. No matter what the topic, there are guaranteed to be comments regarding A) what an easy job analysts have and B) how nothing analysts say comes true. Honestly, analyst posts are fun for all ages. The latest analytical blatherskite holds that the Playstation 3 will have won the console war by 2012. Specifically, according to CNET, IDC analyst Billy Pidgeon claims that by 2012 the PS3 will have moved a whopping 107 million units. The Xbox 360? By 2012, Pidgeon predicts Microsoft will have sold just over 40 million units. In other words, the PS3 will grow exponentially year over year, whereas the 360 will grow at a much more tepid pace. The reason: market perception. Analyst extraordinaire Michael Pachter gave his two cents, noting that Microsoft has "an image issue." Essentially, the 360, according to Pachter, is perceived as a console for hardcore gamers only, whereas the PS3 (and more specifically Sony) is perceived as family friendly. Aaron Greenberg, 360 product manager, naturally disagrees, noting that the Xbox 360 has more million-selling titles than either the Wii or PS3 and that the 360 has "the largest game lineup, and the most exclusive titles."
Analyst: US software sales up 70% in April
With NPD results for April due out this Thursday, it's time for all the analysts to jump into the prediction pool. Pachter already got his out the door, now it's time for Lazard Capital's Colin Sebastian. GameDaily reports that Sebastian believes software sales for April will be up 70% year-to-year, thanks to GTA IV and Mario Kart Wii.Sebastian predicts that although the PS3 and Xbox 360 received a strong hardware sales bump from GTA IV, the PS3 has another one incoming with Metal Gear Solid 4 in June. He states that it's hard to determine what sales in the second half of 2008 look like compared to 2007, but believes the summer months (weak for revenue, even just a few years back) will continue to see strong retail numbers with Wii Fit, Rock Band Wii, MGS4 and movie-based games. Who needs to go outside? There's just sun cancer out there.
MMO development still riddled with risk
With all the new MMO titles in development, sometimes it's easy to forget that running a profit in this business is actually something of an accomplishment. Starting development on a big-budget subscription-based game, with the barrier of entry purportedly being as high as $1 billion, seems like an extraordinary risk for all parties involved. According to analyst Piers Hardings-Rolls, this cut-throat trend is only deepening.Their research shows that popular new development strategies, like purchasing lucrative intellectual properties and importing cheaply-developed MMOs from Asia, has done little to shake up the subscription-based business, where most of the profit is still concentrated in a few extremely successful titles. We were a little disappointed that their research didn't touch on the increasingly-prolific free-to-play/microtransaction model, but we suppose that'll have to wait until another day.
Analysts expect PS3 to benefit most from GTA IV
Oh, great, another Grand Theft Auto IV story. This one's about some analysts who believe the PlayStation 3 stands to gain the most following the release of Rockstar's go-anywhere, shoot-anybody romp. Though both the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 are certain to experience a surge in sales upon the game's April 29 release, Michael Pachter tells Reuters that Sony's system will be the winner in this battle. He's joined by Edward Williams, from BMO Capital Markets, who suspects fans will want to keep their crime shenanigans in the family. "So many people who owned the PS2 went into PlayStation family because of 'GTA', he explains. "The release of 'GTA4' could expedite their decision to upgrade." That isn't to say that brand loyalty will overpower Microsoft's hand, as the manufacturer can still count on the Xbox 360's exclusive downloadable content and bigger install base. IDC analyst Billy Pidgeon (who's no longer unstuck in time, it seems) notes, "Online is such a strong part of the game and Microsoft has done such a great job of developing the online community, so for people who own multiple consoles, they will buy it for the 360." So, Microsoft wins the software struggle, Sony overcomes its hardware hardships and Rockstar has a rollicking good laugh to the bank. Oh, and we get to play Grand Theft Auto IV. We're all winners here![Pictured: Europe's Grand Theft Auto IV PS3 bundle.]
How accurate are your favorite video game analysts?
Man, being a video game analyst must be a sweet job. You can put out all sorts of crazy predictions and no one will ever call you on it if you end up being wrong, right? Well, yes, right, until today, because today Kotaku has completed a massive project to rank the truthiness of predictions from some of the most prominent video game industry analysts out there.The results show that even the best prognosticators out there aren't all that infallible -- Michael Pachter, Jeetil Patel and Mitshuhiro Osawa all top out the scale at 60% correct. That might not sound so good, but it looks absolutely glowing when compared to Billy Pidgeon's dismal 10% truthfulness rating (with 20% still to be determined). Want to avoid his ignominious fate? Just be like Piers Harding-Rolls and predict stuff so far into the future no one can tell how accurate your calls are until you've moved on to used car sales or something.The full piece takes an interesting look behind the scenes in analyst-land and provides some good reasons to be cautious of all those stories with headlines that start with "Analyst predicts ..." Do yourself a favor, take a few minutes and give it a read.
NYTimes says children's virtual playgrounds are serious business
It's that's time again, gentle reader: the New York Times are taking a look at the financial side of virtual worlds, and analyzing the potential for growth within the market. But instead of focusing on Second Life or World of Warcraft, it's ... WebKinz and Club Penguin.Despite my mental age, until now I've known the bare minimum about either. But now they're big business, and the virtual worlds market is entirely under their thrall. Or so the article claims. There are a few flaws in the article, but there's plenty of food for thought -- could virtual worlds overtake television in the children's entertainment sector? Is there big money in virtual worlds aimed at kids? Or, like the conference last month discussed, how will this influence our children?Nobody really knows, I suspect. Analysts are notorious for being unable to predict what children want, beyond jumping on the bandwagon when it comes into town -- it's not like the 'adult' virtual worlds market, where further growth is guaranteed. I guess we'll just have to wait and see.
Analysts: Board games are the next big thing
Gamasutra got a cadre of analysts together to look into crystal balls, read tea leaves, and guess what the next big breakout genre will be following the rhythm game's ascension with Guitar Hero and Rock Band. The analysts' guess? The board game. Yes, the humble board game put on a TV (or in the case of Scene It?, being tweaked a bit) is what the group thought would be the next über genre.Jesse Divnich of simExchange believes that Scene It?, which released last month, will be a "moderate success" and Ben Bajarian of Creative Strategies uses the term "social gaming" to describe this genre of titles. He says that families are still looking for a "board game" to play together, with the natural evolution being to do so on a console. It probably doesn't hurt their hypothesis that the board games we've seen translated to consoles so far (Scene It?, Carcassonne, Catan) have been very effective. With any luck, European games like Alhambra and Puerto Rico will become digital experiences to be enjoyed by those who missed out on them in America. Oh, and would someone get on Scotland Yard and Café International, please?
Report from bizarro world: Centro, i760 best designed phones
Although "innovative" isn't exactly the word we chose to use when summing up Palm's Centro, apparently the public at large sees things a little differently -- or, so says this report, anyway. According to a buyer behavior writeup from Strategy Analytics, the Centro "attracted the most attention from nearly half of the tested US consumers who are intending to purchase a new mobile device" in Q4, and it even ranked ahead of the second-place Samsung i760 in the "appealing" department. Both of the aforementioned handsets were hailed as the top choices (saywha?) for folks "seeking a multifunction, fully integrated device," while the Nokia Prism and LG Rumor also got a few props along the way. Of course, it's always best to take these "studies" with a healthy serving of salt, but if you wanted something to debate about, you've found it.[Via MobileWhack]
Analyst scratches head over potential AT&T / EchoStar deal
No sooner than chatter began flying over a potential AT&T / EchoStar deal, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. is wondering who actually thought (or still thinks) that this is a match made in heaven. According to media analyst Craig Moffett, "the very notion of an AT&T / EchoStar combination is based on a flawed premise; i.e. that AT&T needs video in order to compete with cable." He went on to say that AT&T is losing phone lines to cable because cable simply "has a marginal cost advantage," and noted that pairing up the two "does nothing to address AT&T's underlying cost problem." Stepping back, we actually see quite a bit of logic in Mr. Moffett's reasoning, and when you mix in the fact that AT&T's U-Verse could pose "a strategic threat to EchoStar," one really wonders how effective a partnership would be.
More analyst conjecture: format war will remain stalemated
If there's one thing you can count on in the format war, it's conflicting evidence -- oh, and the occasional knife fight, too. Among all the reports of Blu-ray / HD DVD claiming victory, there's also a decent amount of folks who believe this whole mess is still deadlocked, and the latest musings from sister companies Screen Media Digest and Adams Media Research certainly support the latter. Put simply, the two firms feel that the "main factor eating into high-definition adoption is standard-definition DVD," and while we've already heard that DVD player sales were slipping, we've no doubt owners will continue to snap up DVDs for quite some time. According to Helen Davis Jayalath, senior analyst at Screen Digest, "both formats will be established and coexist for the foreseeable future," and she even suggested that HD software would be split 60% / 40% globally, with BD taking the edge. Feel free to hit the read link if you're intrigued, but don't be shocked if you see something completely contradictory hit the presses just hours from now.
Analysts see a brighter future for PS3
It's taken awhile, but business analysts are now confident in Sony's future. The past few months have been a great turnaround for Sony, with a successful new ad campaign, new marketable price point, and selection of great exclusives and multplatform titles. So, what does the future hold? A lot. 2008 is going to be a great year for Sony, and analysts can agree.Hiroshi Kamide from KBC Securities said Sony is "making up lost ground ... Going forward another 12 months or so I'm sure we'll see better titles turning up as well." Could some of those titles include Killzone 2, Metal Gear Solid, and LittleBigPlanet? Macquarie Security's David Gibson added, "It's certainly a sign that the momentum of the PS3 business is improving ... The PS3 and the games business is past the worst in terms of financial losses and the sales momentum is improving because of the price cut and the new model."There are even more titles to look forward to for Sony's black box next year. Certainly, the tides are changing. PS3 may not become "number one" next year, but it's certainly going to be a much better year for Sony fans.
Analysts: Microsoft in the wake of Bungie, BioWare and Bizarre changes
Now that developers Bungie, BioWare and Bizarre are now either independent or owned by well-known multi-platform publishers, where does that leave the Xbox 360 considering each of those studios had a strong relationship with the console? GameDaily spoke with a couple of leading analysts in the industry to get their ideas on how these studios going in a different direction will impact the console that benefited from their commitment. Analysts, sound off: Mike Hickey, Janco Partners: "We anticipate MSFT will have ample opportunity to sign exclusive agreements with independent developers who are not necessarily willing to devote significant resources to the development of PS3 games." Michael Pachter, Wedbush Morgan Securities: "I understand the logic that says that EA and Activision won't allow exclusives, but for a price they will. Remember, GTA was always a PS2 exclusive, and it was a third-party title. Also Metal Gear will be a third-party exclusive for PS3, so where there is a checkbook, there's a way. ... The only first party loss is Bungie, and I think Microsoft has gotten itself a first look at all future Bungie products. Remember, Microsoft "owned" the Bungie name, and gave it back to the studio. There must have been some quid pro quo, and I'd bet it's a limited exclusive on future content." David Cole, DFC Intelligence: "One thing that Microsoft could do better is general marketing outside of just for titles that start with the name Halo. Microsoft is fairly cheap on the marketing side and often seems to save it all up for a big title like Gears of War or Halo 3. I think they should be more consistent around all their products." Todd Greenwald, Nollenberger Capital Partners: "I don't think it's that big a problem for the 360. I think it may actually be a result of the strength and large installed base of the 360. With the significant installed base lead over the PS3, Microsoft no longer needs 1st party studios to be assured of premium content. The 360 installed base is too big for publishers to ignore now." With the Xbox 360's impressive attach rate, it would seem the system is still the place for third-party developers -- although there are arguments that the attach rate is a bad thing. What we do know is that Microsoft still has the right of first refusal on Bungie games and BioWare's Mass Effect is still an Xbox 360 exclusive. And unless the PS3 starts picking up sales in '08 and perceptions change with the Wii, it appears the Xbox 360 will still be the place for third-party developers over the next couple years.
Analyst says Take-Two on right path
Janco Partners analyst Mike Hickey thinks that Take-Two is ready to show investors the money. Hickey says that Take-Two's management turnaround is working well and that higher than expected sales of BioShock and the release of Manhunt 2 will be good for their fourth quarter. Things should only improve next year with GTA IV and Mafia 2.Then Hickey brings on the crystal ball part. Hickey says that he thinks Take-Two will bring BioShock to PS3, PS2, Wii and handhelds in the company's 2009 fiscal year. Although the PS2, Wii and handheld versions will clearly not be up to the standards of the BioShock we know, the PS3 version would be nice. The whole idea seems unlikely given current information, but if it's all happening a year or two from now it seems plausible. BioShock could always do the exclusivity on a platform for a bit and then transfer over, Take-Two got very good at doing that with Grand Theft Auto back in the day. The real question is if BioShock II ends up being exclusive? There's much money to be made by the return to Rapture.
Why did Apple drop the price?
I think there's no question by now what the biggest announcement yesterday was. The iPod Touch is cool, and the new CoverFlow interface will definitely make some music listeners happy this holiday, but since the end of the announcement, the biggest splash has come from the iPhone's price drop.Why would Apple drop the price of something that was already hitting all the marks they expected to hit? The analysts have already started their breakdown, and if stock prices are any indication, it seems investors are sure Apple is worried (not about competitors obviously, but about expectations), and wants an extra boost. Of course, us Apple fans will disagree-- Apple really does want the iPhone to be "more affordable," and a lower price is icing on an already sweet cake. A lower price doesn't mean desperation-- it's Apple doing what Apple does: breaking the mold and making things better for consumers.Except that if any other company dropped the price of a product after only a few months (ahem, Microsoft-- one of my Twitter buddies noted that no one raised hackles about the Zune's price drop), it'd be seen as a sign of big trouble. What's going on here? Is Apple just aiming to put more iPhones in consumers' hands? Are they worried about the iPhone's sales numbers? Or did they bring down the price just to make sure the iPhone was still competitive against the iPod Touch?
Analysts: 360 sales going up, will outsell PS3 through holidays
Oh, analysts. Always predicting such crazy things. Who doesn't love 'em? Why, just recently they predicted that the PS3 would outsell the Xbox 360 in July. Now that the July NPD numbers are out, we know that turned out not to be true, but that doesn't mean we aren't frothing at the mouth to hear the next prediction. Having seen that the 360 still managed to outsell Sony's wonder machine, Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter expressed his surprise to Gamasutra, noting that "Xbox 360 demand was far stronger than we expected this month." He further noted that he had expected sales to decline on news of the Xbox 360's apparent reliability problems and the PS3 price reduction. Seeing that such wasn't the case, Pachter predicts that Xbox sales will increase, as "the warranty issue appears to be of little concern to consumers, and the recent price cut should stimulate demand." The fantasy game exchange market simExchange agreed with Pachter's predictions, and further noted that they expect the Xbox 360 to outsell the PS3 "every month through the holidays." The group based this prediction on their own predicted lifetime sales of the PS3 and Xbox 360. [Thanks, LunarDuality]
All about industry analysts on Bonus Round
Everyone's favorite Wedbush-Morgan analyst, Michael Pachter, joins IDC's Billy Pidgeon for this weeks episode of Bonus Round, focusing on video game analysts. Throughout their interview with Geoff Keighley, one thing is made abundantly clear: they're not doing their job for us, the players, but for the serious investors out there. That said, the question that seems to pop up every time their comments filter their way through the media is, "Why should we listen to them in the first place?"Michael Pachter says, "Nobody should listen to me on my opinion about anything." That would be a legendary quote right there, but Pachter continues, "... Except whether one of the companies I cover is going to meet or miss an earnings estimate and how they're going to perform going forward." Curses. You win this round, Pachter! Insightful as well as educational, it's another episode of Bonus Round worth checking out.
LCD sales holding strong, plasma sales sinking lower
Even though Matsushita joined forces with Hitachi to take on the less-than-favorable plasma market, things (still) aren't looking good in terms of sales figures. According to recent reports, PDP makers on the whole "are likely to report weak results, having lost dominance of the market for large TVs to the more popular LCD." Additionally, Samsung already posted a "worse-than-expected quarterly net loss, hurt by tumbling prices of its television screens." On the flip side, LCD producers are more likely to be holding their heads high, as sales of these sets has continued to be strong regardless of how far the prices are falling. If you're scratching your head because you thought that people preferred plasmas over LCDs, we can only assume that regardless of predilection, money talks.
Overheard@E3: Analysts like Rock Band
The Rock Band and Bethesda parties were crazy last night -- and everyone is ready to go back to work this morning. The analysts who look into their crystal ball and tell us the future seem to be liking Rock Band, the next game from Harmonix. This morning, outside the EA room at LeMerigot, a cluster of analysts were talking and one mentioned the game, "Rock Band, I was watching them play. This guy, on the drums, I mean, you have to be good."
Report: Euro Xbox 360 sales hitting a wall, PS3 price drop 'inevitable'
A recent report from research company Screen Digest asserts that the Xbox 360's European sales have "hit a wall" and are being constricted by a target market that is "too focused on adult males." The report, as detailed by GamesIndustry.Biz, suggests that sales will continue to suffer as Microsoft struggles to "break out of a small number of genres" in an attempt to capture the attention of a wider audience (perhaps one swayed by the likes of Beautiful Katamari?). Still, the Xbox Live service is labeled as a "beacon of hope," and many of the most anticipated titles in the year's fourth quarter are attached to the Xbox 360. On the topic of the PlayStation 3, Screen Digest reportedly criticizes Sony for relying too much on the PlayStation brand and being unclear about the features offered by the system. The report predicts an "inevitable" price refinement drop before the end of the year, one "in line with previous PlayStation first time price reduction timings," going on to suggest that Sony dropping the price in tandem with the launch of Home would be quite the "bombshell."As for the Wii, Screen Digest believes that Nintendo's wildly successful console is splitting business models within the industry, resulting in some publishers quickly releasing mediocre titles and riding Nintendo's coat tails all the way to the bank. Other publishers, however, are realizing that the "lower development costs and fastest growing installed base confers significant economic advantages in publishing games for Wii relative to competitive consoles." Provided the games don't involve the hunting of men, that is.[Via Xbox 360 Fanboy]
Analysts: DS to have 89% Japanese install base by 2011
An analyst group called Screen Digest is predicting continued success for the DS in the future. We do the same thing, but when they do it, they use specific numbers, and people believe them. Their craziest number? They are saying that in the distant future of 2011, 89% of Japanese households will own a DS.They predict that by 2011, the DS will have an install base of 112 million systems worldwide, versus the PSP's 67 million. To put that in perspective, the Playstation sold 102 million units, the GBA has sold 79 million, and the NES sold 61 million. We personally hope the DS continues to dominate, because we love our jobs the system.
