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Analyst: BioShock Infinite sold 878K in US during March
Cowen & Company analyst Doug Creutz estimates that BioShock Infinite moved 878,000 copies in the US last month. This figure comes from an analyst note sent out to investors as reported by GameSpot; we've contacted the NPD to confirm firsthand.BioShock Infinite was the top-selling game in the US for March, besting Tomb Raider and Gears of War: Judgment for top honors. Compared to March 2012, last month's physical retail game sales were ten percent weaker, while hardware pulled in 32 percent less revenue.
Analyst: Gears of War: Judgment, God of War: Ascension weak in March
Analyst firm Cowen & Company estimates high-profile March launches God of War: Ascension and Gears of War: Judgment both sold far less than their predecessors. The firm projects (via GI.biz) that Ascension sold 360,000 in the US during March and Judgment moved 425,000, down from first-month sales of 1.1 million for God of War 3 and over three million in Gears of War 3's first week of availability.A much better March for Tomb Raider and BioShock Infinite is predicted. The Crystal Dynamics reboot has amassed 696,000 sales in the US over March, while the firm says BioShock Infinite is near 665,000 in just 10 days.Cowen & Company predicts NPD data for March will show a decline in software and hardware spend compared to last year, though the firm is hopeful the launches of StarCraft 2: Heart of the Swarm and SimCity will help contribute to a substantial increase in PC game sales.
Report: Wii U game sales behind Wii, GameCube
Looking at the December NPD results, you may have noticed that the 3DS's New Super Mario Bros. 2 placed in the top ten sellers in the US, but New Super Mario Bros. U was nowhere to be found, nor was any other Wii U exclusive.Analyst Doug Creutz of Cowen & Company's interpretation of the Wii U's early software sales is troubling. "Totals for the November-December period were -43% lower than software sales for the Wii and -50% lower than those for the GameCube," Creutz reports. It's not the most auspicious start for the new hardware. The only US Wii U software sales number to be released by Nintendo is 580,000 units of New Super Mario Bros. U, sold in November and December.Worth noting is that the Wii U offers full games through its eShop, sales of which would not be counted toward NPD software sales totals. Like all digital game sales, the numbers are unknown, but there is some unknown additional commerce taking place that wasn't on the Wii and GameCube.Joystiq has contacted Nintendo for a comment on the report, but has yet to hear back at the time of publishing.
Report: Activision may have paid 'tens of millions' to West, Zampella
When ex-Infinity Ward employees Jason West and Vince Zampella settled their lawsuit with Activision, it was sudden, shocking, and most of all, secret. Activision paid out an undisclosed sum to West and Zampella just before a full trial was set to begin, and while it is expected the exact amount may never be made public, experts can still make an educated guess.Financial analyst Doug Creutz of Cowen and Company posits that the settlement was worth "tens of millions," Gamespot reports. Considering Activision paid out $42 million to the Infinity Ward Employee Group as part of a separate lawsuit, and West and Zampella were seeking $1 billion when the case reached its bitter peak, this ballpark figure checks out.Activision will report earnings on Thursday, August 2, and Creutz says he expects investors will ignore the impact of the settlement on Activision's bottom line.
Analyst says SWTOR subs peaked at 1.7 million, now declining
Stop us if you've heard this one before. Expensive themepark MMO launches to critical and fan acclaim (minus a healthy contingent of naysayers, of course). A few months after launch, rumors of bleeding subscriptions abound, followed by analyst predictions of... well, business as usual. Gamasutra reports on one such forecast for Star Wars: The Old Republic by Cowen and Company. Analyst Doug Creutz says that though TOR's subs peaked at 1.7 million in February, he expects them to drop to around 1.25 million by March of 2013. The analysis is based on statistics gleaned from TorStatus.net, which tracks daily users as opposed to sub numbers. Electronic Arts' recent SWTOR promotional blitz also factored into the report. "While the game got off to a good start, the relatively light amount of end-game content does appear to be taking a toll," Creutz wrote.
New Zynga titles struggle, analysts call for increase in daily active users
Zynga's two latest games, Hidden Chronicles and the iOS-only Scramble With Friends, have failed to accumulate the same daily active user (DAU) totals as two of the social giant's previous releases, Castleville or Empires and Allies. This spells big trouble for the company's trading value and future growth, at least according to a report released by financial analysis group Cowen and Company. Hidden Chronicles' 12 day post-launch DAU total of 710,000 is well below the over 5 million DAU figure reached by Empires and Allies and Castleville during their first 12 days of existence; similarly, Scramble With Friends has failed to penetrate the Top 20 barrier on the App Store. Historically, Zynga's DAU totals peak 3 months after a game has been released (according to the report), and while it's possible that both Hidden Chronicles and Scramble With Friends could slowly acquire a larger user base, there's nothing in Zynga's statistical history to make that extremely plausible. Now, 710,000 daily users sounds like a ton of people, but Zynga has set the bar so high that it's not enough to keep the company's overall growth even: "The quarterly rate of DAU decline for Zynga's titles that are at least three months old has averaged 18.4 percent per quarter for the last two years," explained Doug Creutz of Cowen and Company. "Assuming Zynga averages a 20 percent quarterly rate of decline for titles beyond their launch windows in 2012, the company must add 9-10 million DAUs per quarter from new games just to keep total DAUs constant." So basically, any game Zynga releases in 2012 has to achieve at least 5 million daily users in order for the company's user base to break even. In other news, Zynga has constructed a super-sonic ultra-high-altitude aircraft to recover the bar it's accidentally set for itself in the exosphere.
Research firm: SWTOR has 350,000 peak concurrent users
How successful is Star Wars: The Old Republic? That's hard to say definitively, but according to Baird Equity Research, BioWare's maiden massively multiplayer voyage is doing just fine. "We view the early success of Star Wars as an indication of a healthy MMO market," said Baird spokesman Colin Sebastian. The firm estimates that TOR has approximately 350,000 peak concurrent users spread across 215 servers (124 in America and 91 in Europe). That's a far cry from the 491 servers currently in use by World of Warcraft players, and though some analysts and fans expected TOR to compete with Blizzard's subscription king, Cowen and Company says the new title has had "minimal apparent impact" on the market leader.
New predictions for SWTOR sales: 3M units!
Electronic Arts had high hopes for Star Wars: The Old Republic when it invested in BioWare. However, even executives at EA did not expect the pre-order sales that surpassed all the publisher's previous records. This unexpected growth has caused industry analysts to reconsider some of the previous predictions for the title. Gamasutra reports that Cowen and Company originally predicted sales of the Star Wars MMO to be approximately 1.5 million units with subscription retention at about 1 million players. However, Cowen and Company has now increased that prediction to 3 million unit sold in the first year with 2 million steady subscribers. With EA taking few other risks this season, it spells high hopes for anyone investing in the game developer. However, if anyone is keeping score at home, that number is still below the 4.7 million sales of World of Warcraft: Cataclysm -- though it's quickly catching up.
Tony Hawk: Shred wobbles first week at retail
In a video game's lifetime, the first-week sales are often the most crucial, representing some of biggest numbers a publisher will ever see for a game. That's why Robomodo's second peripheral-based Tony Hawk title, Shred, seems to have gotten off to a grim start, selling just 3,000 copies in its first week at retail. Speaking with GI.Biz, Investment firm Cowen and Company detailed October's North American retail showings (following yesterday's NPD report) and pointed out that another Activision October release, DJ Hero 2, moved 59,000 copies in its first two weeks of availability. For comparison's sake, those aren't huge sales for DJ Hero 2, but it nearly 20 times more than Shred. These numbers are perhaps least surprising to Shred's developer, Robomodo; the developer cut staff last month and is said to be off the Tony Hawk franchise.
