prediction
Latest
DisplaySearch says netbook sales will slow as ULV laptops get cheaper
Netbook sales have been on a solid upward tick for about as long as the product category has existed, so it shouldn't come as much surprise that research firm DisplaySearch is now forecasting that shipments will exceed a hefty 33.3 million units by year's end, which translates to a full 103% jump in growth over the previous year. What is somewhat surprising, however, is that the firm is also predicting that growth will slow considerably in 2010 (down to "just" 20%) as more and more laptops with ultra-low voltage processors dip under the $500 mark. Of course, 20% growth still means that netbook shipments should be in the neighborhood of 40 million for 2010, and DisplaySearch even estimates that growth will hold steady at about 20% for 2011, so we wouldn't be so quick to put them on deathwatch just yet.
Forget HDTV and 3D, when is Ultra HDTV / Super Hi-vision coming home?
Not willing to make predictions about the future of HDTV with all the other analysts, In-Stat has jumped ahead with its latest report, a peek at the future of Ultra High Definition (though the kids are calling it Super Hi-Vision these days.) We'd heard the 8K / 4K broadcasts could flip on as early as 2015, but this report pegs 2017 - 2022 as a more likely time period, with the expectation that 28.2% of European households will be sporting the 22.2-channel audio spec by 2025. Of course, if you must be first on the block with it, there's always JVC's $175k DLA-RS4000 available right now.
EEDAR expects PS3 to be top selling console in Sept.
Three years and $300 worth of price cuts later, PS3 may finally hit the top of the hardware sales charts in America. EEDAR's analyst Jesse Divnich predicts 400,000 PS3s were sold in September, edging out both Wii and Xbox 360 sales (375k and 370k units respectively).It's far from a landslide victory for Sony, but it may be the start of a turnaround for the long-beleaguered platform. If the hardware maintains momentum, the next issue Sony will have to tackle is software. While EEDAR's hardware numbers peg PS3 at the top, its software charts only show one PS3 game in the top 10: Batman: Arkham Asylum. With the remainder of the chart dominated by 360 and Wii games, it's clear Sony still has a long way to go in the console wars.
EEDAR: PS3's $299 price to become 'new standard' for next year
Microsoft isn't likely to take today's unsurprising (but welcomed!) PS3 price drop to $299 lying down. EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich believes Microsoft will follow suit with their own announcement next week, officially killing the $299 Pro SKU and replacing it with a price-dropped $299 Elite model. Divnich says Sony's price cut "will close the sales gap between the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360," but doesn't offer a clear "winner" this holiday season. While he says the PS3 is a "superior hardware product," he also draws attention to Xbox 360's "deeper software library and superior online services." Without a disparity in pricing, it should prove interesting to see what mainstream consumers choose this holiday: hardware or software? Looking forward, Divnich notes that $299 is likely to remain the "new standard" price for the two consoles for the next year. One or both may drop down to $249, but he believes that's the lowest prices can go in the next two years. Instead of continued price drops, Divnich believes both Microsoft and Sony may pursue including Natal and the PlayStation Motion Controller as standard attachments in the future. Is it just us, or does the "console war" seem like it's only just beginning? [Image Source]
Futuresource still predicting big things for Blu-ray
Always good for an optimistic Blu-ray outlook, analyst Futuresource this week continued to peg 2012 as the year Blu-ray breaks into the mainstream, while reducing its prediction of discs sold this year in the format from 95 to 75 million. The expectation is that within the next couple of years hardware could drop to as cheap as $50 for an "entry-level" Blu-ray player, with dedicated set-top box owners snapping up high definition discs at a much quicker rate than the currently PS3-dominated (6% to 3%) audience. Check Video Business for the full recap, but just in case you hadn't heard, rumors of Blu-ray's impending demise are greatly exaggerated.
Analyst: Blu-ray can't stop video sales slump, sees modest growth in 2010
As frequently predicted, Blu-ray hasn't been enough to make up for sagging DVD sales, as a new Screen Digest report indicates a 4.8 percent slide worldwide last year, falling more than $2.6 billion. After plateauing approaching 2007, disc sales have been falling ever since and even Blu-ray's $482 million contribution can't hold up the slack. Still, it's looking at online rentals like Lovefilm and Quickflix to make up for some of the rental losses internationally, but don't expect Blu-ray to help grow the market at all until at least 2010. Of course, the company did also predict the format war would remain stalemated just weeks before Warner ended the whole thing, so we'd keep a grain of salt handy while reading.[Via Financial Times]
Analyst expects just about every E3 rumor to come true
If Macquarie Research analyst David Gibson's soothsaying proves accurate, then our E3 prediction Bingo cards are going to be huge winners -- if, you know, they were actually worth prizes or anything. See, Gibson recently put his keen analytical skills to work in order to foresee the revelations that will drop during the Big Three's conferences at E3 next week. We think there are a few crowd pleasers in his divination.Gibson expects Microsoft's conference to focus mostly on the heavily rumored Xbox 360 motion controller, and the software that will launch in conjunction with the new peripheral. Sony's conference will supposedly also be hardware-centric, revealing a $399, slim PS3 model and the UMD-less, touch screen-equipped PSP Go!. His Nintendo predictions are the most shocking of all -- in addition to a large focus on Wii Fit Plus, Gibson expects the reveal of new Zelda and Mario titles. We'll believe it when we see it -- and we'll see it in like, six days.
Lenovo gazes into its netbook crystal ball, predicts Windows 7, 3G, blue skies with a chance of rain
Wonder what the future of the netbook is -- or at least what's coming after Intel's roadmap runs out of paper? Lenovo's in-house analyst Matt Kohut may have the answer, chatting with TECH.BLORGE to make some entirely sensible predictions about the next netbooks. He indicates that touchscreens and the like will become increasingly popular, helping to drive the popularity of Windows 7 and its top-notch touch support, and continuing the move away from Linux that Lenovo identified back in 2007. He also thinks netbooks will start to get bigger, pushing the 12- to 14-inch range, a trend we're already seeing the beginnings of with rumors of ASUS and its supposed 11.6-inch Eee PC. Finally, he figures machines will get even cheaper than they already are, and that 3G will be more or less standard soon. It's challenging stuff, this prediction business, but feel free to try your hand at it below.[Via Slashdot]
Ten predictions for the HD realm in 2009
It's always fun to look back and see which predictions were spot on and which were utter failures, so it's with that same fervor and excitement that we present our top ten predictions for the HD arena in 2009. We'll go ahead and warn you that some of these aren't entirely -- how do you say? -- serious, but surely your deductive reasoning skills aren't that badly hampered after last night's romp. 1) Blu-ray player prices will reach $79 before the year's end. 2) First medium-to-large OLED TV will ship to consumers. 3) SED will still be spinning its wheels. 4) HTPCs will become all but forgotten as media streamers and BD decks gain functionality. 5) Wireless HD will still remain insignificant to the general populace. 6) A consumer-level 2K flat-panel will see development. 7) Mayhem will ensue on or around February 17, 2009. 8) 3D HDTVs will reach critical mass at the consumer level, material will still be tough to acquire. 9) 720p video recording will appear on several cellphones. 10) Blu-ray players will be able to effectively replace HD streamers / HTPCs by having access to networked media, Hulu, Netflix Watch Instantly and the entire world of internet-based content.We can't possibly explain how difficult it was to narrow this down to ten, so do us a favor and mention the predictions we couldn't in comments below. Here's hoping '09 is a banner year for high-def.
Sony bigwig balks at "five year" Blu-ray demise prediction
Of late, there has been quite a bit of press circulating which suggests that Blu-ray isn't faring too well. At that head of those sentiments was a Samsung UK director named Andy Griffiths, who casually predicted that BD only had about five good years of life remaining. Unsurprisingly, senior VP of corporate communications at Sony Rick Clancy has hit back with an epic tale of why the format is actually not nearing its end. In fact, he suggests that Blu-ray will eventually live harmoniously with digital downloads, and he forecast that BD has "perhaps a decade" of growth to come. He also snuck in a few plugs for his PS3 and BRAVIA HDTVs, but more on the point, he essentially stated that not enough of the world had broadband (yet) for downloadable content to pose a real threat. Right, because the vast majority of the globe definitely has a few C-notes to lay on a BD player. We're only kidding (kind of).[Via SonyInsider]
Samsung UK exec says Blu-ray "has five years left"
While we can't say if it represents a general sentiment at Samsung or not, the company's UK director of consumer electronics, Andy Griffiths, sure went out on a bit of a limb in a recent interview with Pocket-lint, with him saying that Blu-ray has, to paraphrase David Bowie, only "five years left," and that he "certainly wouldn't give it ten." He did say, however, that he thought 2008 would be Blu-ray's year, adding that "it's going to be huge", and that Samsung is "heavily back-ordered at the moment." As for Samsung's future after Blu-ray's supposed demise, Griffiths seems to think that OLED will be the next big thing, and he's pegging 2010 as a possible date for it to become mainstream and replace LCD. He didn't offer a prediction as to when it will die out though.[Thanks, Big W]
The Daily Grind: Is WAR the WoW killer?
The Warhammer Online NDA has been lifted, and a veritable tidal wave of WAR-related information has struck the internet. The open beta test is imminent, but countless pre-order customers are already in the closed beta. The game's launch is only a month away! So this is a great time to ask for your predictions: is Warhammer Online the long-awaited World of Warcraft killer?Some folks hoped it would be Age of Conan, but while that game is doing all right, it hasn't lived up for the hype for everyone. Are all your hopes placed in WAR now, or will it take BioWare's Star Wars: Knights of the Old Republic Online or Cryptic's Star Trek Online to move the genre into the next era? Hell, maybe WoW will never be dethroned by one game.Make your predictions here, but we have a disclaimer: we won't be held responsible for any shame and embarrassment when you're proven way off base in the future!
Gartner analyst says the mouse will be on the outs within five years
As you may have noticed, we're not ones to put much stock in analysts' predictions, especially when they involve the demise of something as entrenched as the mouse in as little as five years. Still, that's the limb Gartner analyst Steve Prentice has walked out on, sort of. While he first qualifies things a bit by saying that the mouse "works fine in the desktop environment but for home entertainment or working on a notebook it's over," he later seems to get considerably more definitive in stating that "the idea of a keyboard with a mouse as a control interface is the paradigm that I am talking about breaking down" (the keyboard, he says, is here to stay). In place of the mouse, Prentice sees things like facial recognition systems, multi-touch, and even devices like OCZ's mind-reading Neural Interface Actuator taking over. Now, if you'll excuse us, we're going to start practicing thinking really hard so we don't get tripped up during the transition.[Via TrustedReviews]
Aspen Optics boldly predicts massive fiber adoption by 2010
Move over, 2012. 2010 is up first, and Aspen Optics is asserting that it'll be a banner year for fiber. Granted, we're taking all of this pretty lightly given the industry that it's in, but nevertheless, said company is proclaiming that FTTH (fiber to the home) will soon be known as FTEH (fiber to every home) while FTTO (fiber to the office) will morph into FTEO (fiber to every office). The proclamation does note that we're talking about "developed nations" here, and the release does tend to focus on the UAE in particular, but this provides good fodder for discussion if nothing else. Do you see fiber booming in just 18 months? We're guessing it'll take a few more years beyond that for it to really make a play for significant cable market share, but hey, we'd love to be wrong.[Via Developing Telecoms]
Ballmer sees the end of print media in ten years
Apparently unfazed by his recent egg attack, Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer has now gone out on a limb and made some pretty bold predictions in a recent discussion with Washington Post editors, the biggest of which, by far, is his proclamation that he thinks there'll be "no media consumption left in 10 years that is not delivered over an IP network." So as not to leave any doubt about that, he also went to further clarify that means there "will be no newspapers, no magazines that are delivered in paper form. Everything gets delivered in an electronic form." He did add, however, that if it was 14 or 8 years, it's "immaterial" to his fundamental point. Among the other nuggets dropped during the wide-ranging conversation, Ballmer says he has "no clue" what Google is up to and, just in case you've been dying to know, he says his favorite TV show is "Lost" (although he's not willing to "pay a buck" for it on iTunes just to get rid of the ads). Hit up the link below for the full interview, complete with video.[Via Digg]
CNET sees PS3 beating Wii ... in 2012
You see that chart right there? That's the predicted outcome of the console war this generation, courtesy of CNET. Aside from the hate in your heart caused by those black bars cruising past those lovely blue ones around the year 2012, what else do you see? Grim future for that Xbox 360? According to CNET, it will be.What do you all think about this projected outcome? Do you think the Wii's popularity will sustain at such a high level for the next 4 years (it does have a lot going for it)? Do you see the demand dying down a bit soon? Also, what are all those people of the future buying PS3s for? Is it a prediction of the future for some kind of alternate universe where the PS3 has games worth playing?[Via NeoGAF]
Study says 90% of virtual worlds don't last 18 months
A study released by Gartner, a large research firm based in Connecticut, claims that 90% of all "business forays into virtual worlds" fail within 18 months.According to the study, most businesses focus too much on expensive and unnecessary technology such as powerful physics engines, and don't pay enough attention to the demands and interests of users actual or potential. This is not surprising to us; savvy MMO developers will talk your ear off about how multi-million dollar graphics are at best a red herring and at worst a harbinger of doom.On the other hand, the study also said that by 2012, 70% of all organizations will be using virtual worlds, and that those endeavors will more successful because businesses will have learned exactly what to expect and will plan development accordingly.[Via Worlds in Motion]
Analyst: PS3 to lead Blu-ray installed base until 2013
Blu-ray still has a lot of convincing to do before ABI believes it's the future, mostly because of upconverting DVD players. According to the analyst's figures, while 35% of DVD players sold today (that low?) upconvert, 60% will by 2013 (again, that low?). The state of Blu-ray hardware going forward isn't to their liking either, with principal analyst Steve Wilson stating "studios better hope that people are playing movies on their Playstations. Otherwise there's very little installed base." With PS3s accounting for 85% of Blu-ray players in 2008, ABI doesn't see things evening out until 2013, with high prices for dedicated players keeping sales volume lower than studios would like. Of course, ABI also saw combo drives as the next big thing in 2012, so we wouldn't return all of our high def discs just yet.
Microsoft's Greenberg claims victory in battle for 'core user' over Sony
Less than two years into what some see as a ten-year battle might seem like an odd time to declare victory, but not to Microsoft's Xbox 360 Group Product Manager Aaron Greenberg. In an interview with Next-Gen, Greenberg stated that, in his opinion, "the battle for the core user is sort of over, if you will. ... I feel we've secured that core buyer, and that gives us quite a bit of an advantage versus PS3, which is late to the game and still at a price disadvantage relative to the Xbox."Greenberg did offer one slight caveat to his claim, acknowledging that Sony is "a very formidable competitor in Europe," (indeed) but overall he scoffed at the idea that upcoming PS3 exclusives would make a dent in the Xbox 360's lead in installed base and mindshare. "They're trying to go after a consumer that has already bought an Xbox 360," Greenberg said. "You could say that they showed up with too little, too late." Or you could say that Microsoft is declaring too much too early. We report ... you decide.
Famitsu publisher backtracks on E3 DS prediction
We weren't that surprised when Nintendo denied any knowledge of the existence of a new DS model hinted at by Famitsu publisher Hirokazu Hamamura last week. We were a little more surprised when Hamamura himself denied ever making the prediction.IGN is reporting on a statement released by Enterbrain (Famitsu's parent company) explaining that reports of the original prediction were inaccurate and that Hamamura actually "believes it unlikely that Nintendo would release a new form factor or a successor model" for the DS. So was it simply a mistaken quote/translation, or did the powers-that-be at Nintendo put the screws to Enterbrain in order to tone back the speculation? We may never know the truth, but that won't stop us from wildly speculating ourselves ...
