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Analyst: Wii, GTA IV, game industry all winners in '08
Hudson Square Research analyst, Daniel Ernst, dropped a big ol' report today with huge guesses thoughtful analysis about what will happen in the game industry during 2008. First up, he claims the industry as a whole is ready to challenge the film industry for dominance. Next, he believes the Wii will outsell the Xbox 360 and PS3 combined this year and, finally, that Grand Theft Auto IV will become the top selling game in '08 with 13 million copies sold (not too far off from Pachter's prediction).GameDaily has three separate stories on Ernst's epic predictions on the game industry's near future. The report makes other claims about Wii Fit selling around 10 million units and features interesting tidbits about DS games costing less than a million dollars to develop. Peer through Hudson Square Research's crystal ball by following the links below.Read -- Analyst: GTA IV to Lead All Game Sales in '08 with 13M SoldRead -- Wii to Outsell PS3 and Xbox 360 Combined in '08, says analystRead -- Video Games Explode: Global Revenues Now on Par with Box Office
Departing Midway CEO bullish on company outlook
Having to fire a CEO is never a good sign for a company, especially when that company has recently seen massive losses and a board restructuring. But there's still one person willing to defend Midway's business strategy, and that person is, surprisingly enough, departing CEO David Zucker.To be fair, Zucker was interviewed before his replacement by an interim CEO yesterday, but if he saw the writing on the wall he didn't let it show. "We expect to significantly grow our revenues in 2008," Zucker told GamesIndustry.biz last week, adding that naysayers have been predicting the company's demise for "for five years or so." Zucker emphasized that a combination of investment in new technology and established franchises like Mortal Kombat and NFL Blitz will provide the company's saving grace. That might well be true, but any turnaround will unfortunately come too late to be the saving grace for Mr. Zucker.
Report: Mexican game industry worth $1B by 2010
Mexico is often treated as the neglected stepchild of the North American video game market, trying its best to garner the attention of publishers while the U.S. and Canada get showered with releases just for existing. That situation might not last for long, though, as the analysts at Research and Markets say the Mexican video game business could be worth over $1 billion by the end of the decade.Of course they have good reason to talk up the Mexican sector, as they're trying to sell a new, expensive report about it. But they make a good argument that an aging population of Mexican "young, unmarried gamers, or YUGS" could drive growth. In short, Mexican youths are getting married older and older on average, meaning they live with their parents longer and have more disposable income to use on games -- what the report calls "a decade of cash-flush YUGGIES of prime gaming age." Just what we need ... another country full of socially reclusive gamers living in their parents' basements.
WSJ: Strong PS3 projections makes Sony stock a "bargain"
Just as every cloud has a silver lining, every drop in stock value hides within it an opportunity for profit. At least that's what the Wall Street Journal seems to be saying with an article that argues the precipitous 26% drop in Sony stock this year could actually be an opportunity for bargain hunters.The Journal was heartened by the Sony video game unit's quarterly profit over the holidays -- its first in two years -- and sees increasing demand for the PS3 as a good reason to buy low in anticipation of selling high. Sony itself predicts sales of 9.5 million PS3s this year, and the Journal cites analysts predicting a whopping 14 million systems sold in '09. Pretty optimistic, considering the company only moved 3.6 million units in 2007, but with things looking up for the troubled system, it could happen.
Kurzweil predicts that machines will match man by 2029 -- bring it on
Famed technologist and futurist Ray Kurzweil is on the record about human-machine intelligence parity: it's going down by 2029, so be prepared to get digital on entirely new levels. Apparently, machines "will have both the hardware and the software to achieve human level artificial intelligence" by then, but even if it's not in the form of meatbag-terminating cyborgs, Kurzweil thinks one future of intelligent machines is on the nano scale, with interfaces to enhance our own physiology and intelligence. Oh sure, this stuff is completely pie in the sky -- but it's still absurdly fun to think of what kinds of crazy crap the 21st century's going to hold.[Thanks to everyone who sent this in]
Analyst: Next-next-gen coming in 2010
Remember when the term "next generation" meant systems like the N64 and original PlayStation? Those were the days. Now the term next generation can only be legally applied to the post-PSWii60 systems that are no doubt being planned as we speak. While no one knows anything for sure about these units yet, that hasn't stopped Pacific Crest Securities analyst Evan Wilson from predicting a 2010 start date for the next console cycle.Talking about EA's bullish revenue projections, Wilson let slip to Gamespot that he believes Nintendo will launch first, followed by Microsoft later in the year (no word on when the assumed PS4 will come). On the portable side, Wilson also predicts the next round of Nintendo DS and Sony PSP hardware will appear sometime in 2010, though it's not clear whether he's calling for a new chipset or just another redesign.If these predictions pan out, that means you only have 687 to 1051 days to save up for a very expensive year.
Analyst agrees with EA: 2008 is 'exceedingly strong' for PS3
It's taking Sony's latest some time to build momentum. However, it's clear that 2008 will be a strong year for the PS3. Major publisher EA predicted not too long ago that Sony's system would actually outsell Xbox 360 this year, due to its popularity worldwide. Analyst Mike Hickey agrees. "We expect PS3 unit sales will perform exceedingly strong in CY08, due to a recently reduced price point, killer content coming into the channel (GTA), and Blu-ray currently having a decided edge in the high definition format war," he said. He predicts the system will sell 5 million systems this year, which is within the range of EA's estimate. Obviously, a high price point, confusing HD format war, and small software library were all contributing factors to a sluggish start for PS3. However, now that all of these hurdles have been overcome, things are looking in Sony's favor, particularly due to the success of their last console. "Considering Sony has sold in excess of 120 million PS2 units globally, we anticipate the PS3 adoption rate could accelerate meaningfully in the coming years as the aforementioned issues are addressed and legacy PS2 players' accelerate their transition to current gen." Even if only a small fraction of PS2 owners make the transition to PS3, Sony will be rolling in the dough. We're confident that a lot of these casual PS2 owners will jump on the PS3 bandwagon over the long-haul. [Via Joystiq]
Pachter: Take out Wii Sports, sell Wii for $199
Michael Pachter, the man who makes a living predicting sales trends and corporate decisions in the gaming industry, is saying that Nintendo should cut Wii Sports out of the package and sell the Wii for a cool $199. "I think that if Nintendo were to do so and cut the price to $199, it would still sell a piece of Nintendo software to 80% of new Wii purchasers, and would end up effectively lowering revenues per console by only around $10," he explained in an interview with Gamasutra. You see, Pachter thinks this is not going to be that great of a year for the Wii.Pachter further explains that the high-definition features of the other consoles make them "more likely to end up in the living room, which could relegate the Wii to the playroom." He says this could be bad for the Wii, as if it "is not at the center of the home entertainment system, software sales could suffer as a result."We can't say we particularly agree with Pachter. We're not sure we'd see Nintendo cut the price on the Wii anytime soon, and if they did, we would hope it didn't involve losing one of the best experiences one can have on the console, let alone the best Wiimote trainer we've ever had time with. What do you folks think?
Trade group: Game industry growth to slow in '08
Game industry business stories in 2007 were a pretty one note affair -- record-breaking this, unprecedented sales that, blah blah blah. But the boom times might be ending soon, as the Consumer Entertainment Association is predicting that games industry growth will begin to slow in 2008.To be clear, this doesn't mean the industry is going to get smaller, by any means. The CEA is still predicting that the industry will grow 13 percent, to $17.9 billion, in the coming year. What's getting smaller is the rate of growth, which was a ridiculously high 22 percent from 2006 to 2007. This isn't all that distressing, considering economic analysts are pointing to recession across the economic board. In fact, plenty of industries would be positively giddy with 13 percent growth these days. Then again, declining growth is the first step to actual industry shrinkage, which is the first step to the total evaporation of the industry. Then again again, given that we're entering the middle of the current console generation, this is probably just a sign that the chronically cyclical game industry is going through yet another one of its regular cycles. Amid all the uncertainty, one thing is for sure ... economic analysis makes our heads hurt.
Predictions for the format war in 2008
Considering that we've already asked you for general tech predictions in 2008, as well as taken the time to peer into your mind about the most anticipated HD innovations, it seems only fair to dedicate a prediction post to the still-raging format war. Of course, if you listen to the analysts, you'll find an incredibly varied selection of responses, but we suppose that follows logic -- you know, considering that we're all really in the dark here. Nevertheless, we figure there's no better way to kick off 2008 (and CES) than to toss out a few outlandish (and we mean outlandish) guesses as to where the format war will be this time next year (if it's still around by then, that is). 1) Warner will indeed go Blu-ray only at CES, sending the HD DVD camp into horrific fits of panic. 2) Warner will throw us all a curveball, confess its unending love for HD DVD and bid adieu to Blu.3) Combo players will experience an unexpected and completely welcome drop in prices, both formats maintain their edge.4) DVD forms a militia, overthrows both high-definition formats.5) Blu-ray finally undercuts HD DVD in the hardware price department, red withers away.6) Online 1080p movie rentals become the norm, sales of both formats sink.7) HD DVD woos a major BD studio (or two), steals away Blu market share.8) A major television manufacturer begins mass marketing sets with either HD DVD / Blu-ray drives within, the excluded format loses ground.9) Blu-ray figureheads offer Toshiba a grotesquely large sum of money to bow out, BDA celebrates for weeks.10) Despite incessant rambling from fanboys the world over, sales remain fairly steady throughout 2008 -- we find ourselves in this very spot as 2009 commences.That's it for our surmising, now let's hear what you all think. You know the drill, drop in your wildest speculation below -- but don't be afraid to mix in a little intelligence, okay?[Thanks for the idea, Tom!]
Second Life and World Of Warcraft go to war. Second Life wins, Azeroth nuked
OK, this might not be an entirely serious piece. Some of the humour is rather dependent on you having a pretty good grasp of British politics and events of this past year. But, some isn't - and in the Telegraph a spoof article about 2008 features Second Life and World of Warcraft quite heavily.I hope that you enjoy it, being a Brit it took me about 10 minutes to recover from the giggles after reading it, but that might be just my sense of humour.
Intel predicts camera-powered, controller-free game system
While waggling your Wii remote around provides a decent approximation of natural motion, Intel predicts a future where cameras will provide highly accurate motion data to a game system. "We imagine some future generation of [Nintendo's] Wii won't have hand controllers," Intel Chief Technology Officer Justin Rattner, told Business Week. "You just set up the cameras around the room and wave your hand like you're playing tennis."It should be noted that there's nothing in the article to indicate that Rattner has any insider info on Nintendo's plans -- more than likely he was just theorizing about what he'd like to see in a future system. Still, the idea of a camera-based 3D motion-sensing setup has incredible potential for gaming. More than the simple video transposition of the Xbox Live Vision Camera or the PlayStation Eye, a multi-camera system could model your three-dimensional movements in real time, in effect placing a digital version of you in the game. The result could revolutionize the way we play games and even how they're made -- after all, why should developers use motion captured performances when the players can provide them for themselves?Such a theoretical system would take quite a bit of processing power, though, which might explain why Intel is talking it up -- after all, they already have a chip that can perform one trillion calculations a second. The future's so bright, we're using our Wii remotes as makeshift shades.
That fence comfy, Konami?
We only ask because the company has revealed its thoughts on the current hardware cycle, and come to the overly diplomatic conclusion that ... they're all winners! Every one of them! Hurray! "Previously, a single home gaming platform [PS2] was the market leader worldwide, but that pattern has changed," the company said in a statement. "Whichever platform best caters to users' preferences in a particular country or region, in terms of the games available to be played on it, is now the one that will dominate the local market." Being the well-informed readers that you are, you'll be well aware that the Wii snagged first place from the Xbox 360 back in September, and apparently continues to be hugely desirable to consumers. And although Konami is correct to point out that the race is more finely balanced than in the last generation, there's still a distance to go yet. If anything, we'd bank on Nintendo to stretch its lead.
Sex with Massachusetts Robots by 2050 -- wicked!
Having read the title above, we ask you: how do you feel? Titillated at the prospect or fearful for the little babies? Either way, if artificial intelligence researcher David Levy of the University of Maastricht is to be believed, we'll be consummating relationships with our anatomically correct Roombas by mid-century. Ironically, even though the city of Maastricht sits in free-livin' Netherlands, Levy predicts that Massachusetts will be first to legalize human-robot marriage due to its liberal attitude toward same-sex marriages. He envisions those early man-machine marriages falling victim to the same cultural taboos affecting interracial marriages. However, just as those are accepted over time, so will committed robot-hookups be seen as "normal" as the practice becomes more common. According to Levy, "once you have a story like 'I had sex with a robot, and it was great!' appear someplace like Cosmo magazine, I'd expect many people to jump on the bandwagon." Hear that Digg users? The cure to nerdonic-celibacy is all up to you.[Via TG Daily]
Biofeedback signals used to predict gamers' moves
While it's no shock that artificial intelligence as a whole is making strides, a pair of Hungarian researchers have seemingly unlocked a secret that gamers are sure to detest. Laszlo Laufer and Bottyan Nemeth, both from the Budapest University of Technology and Economics, have reportedly "discovered that a gamer's button presses can be predicted two seconds before they make them, through measurements of skin conductance." To make such a bold claim, the duo had guinea pigs play a simple game while their heart rate and skin conductance were measured, and after utilizing "neural networks to analyze the biofeedback signals and input records," the data showed that we humans aren't as unpredictable as we sometimes hope to be. Notably, this unearthing could be used in quite a few applications outside of infuriating gamers, but we all know where the real fun in this is.[Via The Raw Feed]
Wii Warm Up: Your E3 predictions
We've been laying down some predictions -- albeit ridiculous, silly predictions -- for quite a while now, and while we may just get serious later ('cause E3 is serious business), we thought it might be a good time to take a break and ask you what you think will happen at the new show. Tragic game delays? Hot new announcements? New channels? C'mon, share!
Analyst takes Wii to win by 2010
UBS Investment Research analyst Benjamin Schachter recently spoke with GameDaily.BIZ about his firm's 92-page report on the video game industry (that's a lotta reading!) and, more importantly, his view on the current state of the console wars. Gathering all of his mental powers, Schachter made the very tough call of predicting who will win the fight this generation and determined that by 2010, the Wii would be in the lead, with the PS3 trailing behind. Of course, they aren't the first to try and predict this generation's console war.With Nintendo doing so well in both the handheld and console market with their hardware (let's not forget their software), month after month, it's easy for anyone to see that the company is doing well. Will their business model hold up for the next 3+ years, however, as UBS is stating? Personally, we'd like to think so, but the future is a dark and choppy ocean. We just hope Nintendo has enough deck hands to ensure a safe and prosperous voyage.
Predicting a ten million subscriber year for WoW
Relmstein has a short piece up about Blizzard and their little online game in the coming year, and in the process, he arrives at the exact same subscriber number that I did in my predictions: Ten million subscribers worldwide.The latest figures we have say they're current at eight million, but of course every bit of thinking we do on this issue is clouded by the expansion next week. Personally, I think the expansion will live up to the hype-- when hasn't Blizzard ever done that? Relmstein agrees with me, and says it'll bring a lot of players back. I'm thinking that means even players who don't expect to come back. Once the items start getting out there, and the new instances carve out their place in the culture, I think the Burning Crusade will bring this game back for a lot of people. Heck one indicator is the new PVP system-- if all the new content can revive the PVE game at least as much, it's a good thing Blizz is unwrapping all those new servers.But of course the drawback to an expansion is this: you don't earn a new audience with addon content. I'd hazard a guess that the expansion will sell five to six million copies after all is said and done, but almost every one of those copies will go to someone who's already got an identity in Azeroth: I'd doubt anyone is sitting on the sidelines, just waiting for a Blood Elf or Draenei to come along and pick up the game. Of course, that doesn't mean Blizzard won't make money-- they'll rake it in, and hopefully spend it on even more servers and content. But I'm thinking that while Burning Crusade will bring a renaissance to Azeroth, total subscribers will top out at 10 million. And then, we can talk about another issue: will WoW's base peak in 2007?
PSPredictions for 2007, as seen by PSP Fanboy
PSP Fanboy has dusted off the crystal ball for another round of yearly predictions. The team was surprisingly accurate last time around; but then again, we all saw the UMD movie market collapse coming. This year the gang took a few more risks, anticipating a new PlayStation-branded portable device (not a PSP redesign) and a Microsoft franchise's appearance on PSP.The reckless forecasting is highlighted by one call in particular: "Expect tons of established franchises & far less original IPs." Yeah right, like that could ever happen! Those guys need to check their crystal ball for cracks ... Anyone else wanna play fortune-teller?
Analyst: PS3 will win with 75 million units by 2010
Another day, another analyst throwing out their predictions for the console wars. This time it's a Datamonitor report predicting Sony will "win the console war in the long term with an install base of around 75 million globally by 2010." That may sound impressive, but considering the PS2 has already sold in excess of 111 million systems worldwide, this would still represent a sizable hit for Sony. Indeed, Datamonitor predicts that the PS3 won't "dominate as much as its predecessor" because of delays in Europe and early inroads by the Xbox 360. Oh analysts, can't you make up your mind? Is Sony going to win big in the long run or fall into last place? Are they going to lead the market or is the system dragging the whole company down? We know you're basically just taking shots in the dark but, well, we were just hoping for some more consistent grouping, is all. [Via Pro-G]
