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Rumor Roundup: Everybody pageview, er, I mean panic
Predictably, the later we get into the year, the fewer rumors there are to round up. It almost makes me long for the halcyon days of stupid mockups, moronic drivel from analysts, and thrice-daily tripe from Digitimes. Almost. Now that I think about it, what exactly do you suppose all those Apple analysts are doing around this time of year? What does an analyst do in the "off season" when there's no more digital manure to spread? My money is on "mountains of illicit substances," because that's the only thing that properly explains their state of mind the rest of the year. This could be Apple's secret plan to rule the music industry with Beats Music (BGR) Source: Some analyst Chance it's true: None Here's the major red flag I see from this guy's analysis of Apple's supposed plans for a Beats-based subscription service: "Artists have access to information on their fans" No. No no nope nope nooooooope no. Apple has used the fact that it doesn't hand over information about its users to third parties as a point of differentiation from its competitors. "We don't build a profile based on your email content or web browsing habits to sell to advertisers. We don't "monetize" the information you store on your iPhone or in iCloud. And we don't read your email or your messages to get information to market to you. Our software and services are designed to make our devices better. Plain and simple." I can't speak to what Apple may eventually have planned for its $3 billion acquisition of Beats, but "handing over customer information to musicians and/or record companies" is gonna be preeeetty far down Apple's priority list. Terrifying iOS 8 security flaw has forced the U.S. government to issue a warning (BGR) This is less a rumor and more an example of the continued downward spiral of a tech publication that I once respected (though at this point I can't remember how long ago that might have been). BGR, in its continued quest to paint every minor stumble or setback as a major debacle for Apple, has in the headline of this article classified this as a "terrifying" security flaw, and the way BGR wrote the article made it sound like this was something that could affect your grandma's iPhone. Everybody pageview! Wait, panic. I meant panic. Surprise: Apple says no one was actually affected by this "terrifying" security flaw. Meanwhile, in the time it took BGR to publish that alarmist nonsense, roughly 10,623 Windows users had their personal details hijacked... but that doesn't make headlines anymore.
Rumor Roundup: Honestly
Pegatron Reportedly Boosting iPhone 6 Production, Adding iPhone 6 Plus to Meet Strong Demand (MacRumors) Source: Japanese website Chance it's true: 30 percent Reports like this are rather difficult to take seriously since they're never actually verified one way or the other. Even if more iPhone 6 and 6 Plus units hit the shelves, we can't connect the dots from that to this report, or to any similar report saying the same about Foxconn. It's all hearsay, but by all means, pretend it's real news, because there's definitely nowhere near enough of that out there right now. Apple Expanding Enterprise Efforts, Developing Dedicated Sales Force (MacRumors) Source: "People familiar with the matter" Chance it's true: 50/50 On one hand, Apple's attitude toward the enterprise has always been a bit... unpredictable is probably the charitable way of putting it. On the other hand, there definitely is major money to be made in that space. On the third hand (which we just had installed), a handful of companies already have a very tight stranglehold on the enterprise market, so for Apple to even get its foot in the door is going to be a big challenge. Apple rumored to turn huge downtown LA building into flagship store, office space (AppleInsider) Source: "Anonymous tipster" Chance it's true: Who knows What can you really say about this one? It sounds mundane enough to be true, but "an anonymous tipster" sounds like the kind of source I wouldn't touch with a ten-metre barge pole. Speaking of terrible sources... KGI: iPad Pro pushed back again to Q2 2015, Q1 to see under 10M iPads shipped (9to5 Mac) Source: "Accurate" analyst Ming-Chi Kuo Chance it's true: None Everyone's favorite "accurate" analyst is back with yet more predictions of "delays" for Apple products that not only haven't been announced, they haven't even been confirmed to be in development outside of the rumormongering community. Conveniently enough, with mass production of this mythical device now pushed into the second quarter of next year, that means at least six more months of endless tea-leaf reading nonsense about it. So we've got that going for us, which is nice. Apple Watch Chipmakers Said to Be Gearing Up Production (MacRumors) Source: Digitimes Chance it's true: None at all When will you people ever learn to stop taking Digitimes seriously? Honestly.
Rumor Roundup: Divide by zero error
Evidence shows Apple operating a mysterious Web crawling bot (AppleInsider) Source: Website usage logs Chance it's true: 100 percent There's no denying that a crawler traced to Apple's servers is apparently sending some traffic to a number of websites. For what purpose that might entail, no one really knows. AppleInsider speculates this could have something to do with either Spotlight enhancements in OS X Yosemite or continued refinement of Siri in iOS. Either of them are decent enough guesses, but that's still all they are. New report says you shouldn't expect a 128GB iPhone 6 Plus recall (BGR) Source: Digitimes Chance it's true: DIVIDE BY ZERO ERROR We'll probably never know for sure whether this report is accurate, because Apple isn't likely to publicise anything related to the widely-reported (but probably not actually widely experienced) crashing issues on 128 GB iPhone 6 Plus units. I'm usually inclined to dismiss absolutely everything Digitimes says about Apple before even reading it, but this might be the first thing they've said all year that actually makes sense. Yes, Digitimes finally said something about Apple that may turn out to be true. I'm scared, too. Rumor: Faulty flash memory in select iPhone 6 & 6 Plus units prompts Apple to make switch [u] (AppleInsider) That little [u] at the end can mean only one thing: someone hit "publish" on an article before doing any basic fact checking. Indeed, from the article: "A source close to Apple has clarified that user-reported issues with large capacity iPhone 6 models are very rare, and that the company does not have any plans to recall the phones due to "faulty hardware," and that there is not a defect in the Anobit components those models use. The source of the rumor is a minor publication in Korea that is said to have close ties to Samsung." (emphasis added) Oh re-he-he-he-heaaaaally? I find that extremely curious. Everything we know about the upcoming Steve Jobs movie (updated) (Macworld) Again, that little (updated) at the end is a telltale sign of an article that probably should have stayed in the oven a bit longer - or that should have just been left in the freezer in the first place. The opening line of the article sets the tone: "Oh, geez. Everything we thought we knew about the next Steve Jobs biopic is turning out to be wrong." Inexplicably, the article doesn't end right there, but goes on for several hundred speculative, rumor-drenched words. It's rather distressing to see how often Macworld has dipped into rumor reporting since its restructure a couple months ago. I almost never saw them stick their hands into the filth and grime of rumor reporting back in the old days, but it's happening with uncomfortable regularity now. I can only hope this isn't the beginning of a slow, steady decline where Macworld turns into the next BGR. Hey, speaking of which... Is Apple still launching the ultra-thin Retina MacBook Air this year? (BGR) Source: Taiwanese website Chance it's true: None The word "still" in BGR's headline implies that Apple ever had plans to launch this long-rumored but never-confirmed device. The question mark at the end makes it easy to answer, thanks to Betteridge's Law of Headlines: no, the mythical device mentioned in this poorly-sourced report is highly unlikely to launch this year. Or, for that matter, next year.
Rumor Roundup: 'The skepticism it deserves'
Report: Christian Bale drops Steve Jobs role in upcoming biopic (9to5 Mac) Source: Hollywood Chance it's true: Who knows Film casting is so fickle, and can change so quickly for so many reasons, that it's not really worth reporting on it until someone actually shows up to the set and starts acting in front of a camera. Of course, terrible sources and half-baked rumors are what these guys have built their entire houses on, so why should film rumors be any different? With Christian Bale bailing, Sony in talks with Michael Fassbender for Steve Jobs film role (9to5 Mac) Source: Hollywood Chance it's true: Again, who knows "I am convinced" that if Michael "Magneto" Fassbender doesn't play Steve Jobs, it will be because of this rumor. Apple rumored to abandon iPad mini in 2015, move to 12-inch 'iPad Pro' (AppleInsider) Source: Chinese website Chance it's true: 30 percent Honestly, the only reason I gave this a 30 percent chance of being true is because that's the historical accuracy record of these sites. AppleInsider calls this rumor "dubious," but I don't think that goes quite far enough. In fact, the only adjectives I can think of to fully and accurately describe the likely veracity of this rumor aren't fit for publication in a family-friendly venue like TUAW. It's far beyond the realm of common sense how anyone can claim with a straight face that "sources in the supply chain" have any clue what Apple's product strategy will be nearly a year from now. OH NO: Report warns Apple might be facing a huge iPhone 6 Plus recall (BGR) Source: Korean website Chance it's true: None OH NO: BGR failed to perform anything remotely resembling actual journalism and credulously re-blogged this nonsense. Once again it apparently falls to 9to5 Mac to debunk the manure spread by other rumor blogs, which, once again, is causing me some pretty profound cognitive dissonance. Rather than issue a correction or retraction of its original article, BGR reblogged 9to5 Mac's debunking of their own article. The mind reels. It boggles. Then, fed up with it all, the mind throws up its hands, grabs a bottle of Shiraz, and takes early retirement. EXCLUSIVE: Proof Apple knows the 'Bendgate' problem is much more serious than it publicly admitted (BGR) Source: Some BGR reader Chance it's true: Comfortably close to zero Last year, BGR fell all over itself trying to categorize the iPhone 5c as a failure or flop at every SEO-infused opportunity. This year, BGR is apparently refusing to let Bendgate die, long after everyone else has stopped paying attention. Even if this report from some BGR reader is accurate in its claims that Apple is tracking whether its newest phones are being returned for bending issues, there are any number of reasons Apple might want to track this beyond some shadowy "Bendgate is real and more widespread than you think" body snatchers BS. It's entirely possible - and given what we all know of human nature, probable - that many people have jumped on the Bendgate hype and used that as an excuse to get a free replacement iPhone after deliberately applying excessive force to their phone. Apple could be tracking returns made for this reason to get some idea of how many fraudulent returns it receives, or it could just be a means of monitoring the fallout from the Bendgate media blitz. The fact that this tracking could be happening for pretty much any reason, assuming it's happening in the first place, makes BGR's attempt at conspiracy mongering seem like the desperate grab for pageviews that it actually is. Report claims steel Apple Watch to start at $500, gold model between $4-5K (9to5 Mac) Source: French website Chance it's true: Who knows Predicting prices for a product not scheduled to launch until some vaguely defined "early 2015" date is... well, brave is the most positive spin I can put on it. Wild rumor seems to confirm Apple's interest in iPhone 3D displays (BGR) Source: Chinese website Chance it's true: 30 per- yeah, never mind. None. None whatsoever. BGR says, "The same publication said that Apple might discontinue the iPad mini next year, and replace it with the iPad Pro, so you really should treat this rumor with the skepticism it deserves." Yes, BGR. You really should. I guess the question is, why didn't you? Don't answer that. We both (pageviews) know (pageviews) the answer (pageviews).
Rumor Roundup: Sad journalism trombone
NXP hopes Apple's adoption of NFC will encourage automakers to use its chips to replace car keys (AppleInsider) Source: Reading way too much into things Chance it's true: Who knows The guys who may or may not be supplying NFC chips for the newest iPhones (teardowns suggest they are) are hoping carmakers will adopt NFC technology for stuff like keyless entry, keyless start, and pairing with the in-car distraction, er, entertainment system. This story has the flavor of, "Wouldn't it be cool if?" rather than anything like real news. Seth Rogen to Star as Steve Wozniak in Sony's Steve Jobs Biopic [Updated] (MacRumors) Source: Hollywood Chance it's true: 50/50 You just know that with that [Updated] at the end, someone pushed the "publish" button before properly verifying anything. Sure enough: "Rogen is not officially signed on." Cue sad journalism trombone: Wah-waaaaah. Has Apple quietly fixed its iPhone 6 Plus 'Bendgate' problem? [updated] (BGR) Source: Some Reddit user Chance it's true: Nada. Zip. El zilcho. Speaking of sad journalism, here's BGR reporting on what some guy in a Reddit thread said. Key bit from this report is this gem of a quote from the guy in question: "I can't prove anything." That's okay. Proof isn't important. Pageviews are. Debunk: No, Apple didn't change up iPhone 6 Plus internals to avoid bending (9to5 Mac) 9to5 Mac does a good job debunking a stupid, poorly-sourced rumor, which means the seventh seal has opened, and the end times are nigh. Rumor: Apple's "iPad Pro" to be as thin as an iPhone, sport 12.2-inch display & extra speakers (AppleInsider) Source: Japanese website Chance it's true: 30 percent The source of this story has hit some home runs in the past, but it's also struck out several times. 50 demerits to AppleInsider for subseqeuntly citing "accurate" analyst Ming-Chi Kuo as supporting "evidence" for this rumor. 50 more demerits for calling him a "well-connected analyst." Being a slightly better guesser than the rest of the analyst yahoos doesn't make him well-connected.
Rumor Roundup: Lucy in the sky with sapphires
Apple seeks partners to enable NFC-based transit payments & building access for iPhone 6 & Watch (AppleInsider) Source: "People familiar with the matter" Chance it's true: 100 percent Can you think of any reason why Apple wouldn't want to do this? Neither can I. It actually makes a lot of sense: leverage existing technology to do really cool stuff, that no one really thought of doing before, using existing Apple products. This totally fits in with Apple's modus operandi. Leaked screenshots suggest Yosemite- and Retina-friendly Microsoft Office for Mac on the way (9to5 Mac) Source: Chinese website Chance it's true: 50/50 Chinese sources aren't the best sources, with an overall 40 percent accuracy record. I'm giving this rumor an extra ten percent worth of benefit of the doubt, simply because after four years it seems like it's about time for this to be happening. More Details on Next Version of Office for Mac Include Planned Launch in First Half of 2015 (MacRumors) Source: Same Chinese website Chance it's true: 50/50 The same source, with the same caveats applicable. Extra caveats apply since it's Microsoft: "first half of 2015" as a launch date likely means more like "Um, actually, sometime in 2016. Oops." The fate of iPhone's sapphire screen looks dubious, per DisplayMate report (Macworld) Source: Reading way too much into things Chance it's true: 100 percent In the sober light of day, it's looking like all the hemming and hawing about sapphire display covers for the iPhone 6 was nothing more than analysts' pipe dreams. Sapphire had very real disadvantages as a potential material, and it's starting to sound like those disadvantages were so numerous that Apple never seriously considered sapphire displays for the iPhone 6. Don't think that will prevent a firehose of "sapphire display glass" rumors for the iPhone 6s next year, though. Of course it won't. Sapphire will be a defining feature of the iPhone 6s according to analysts, "people familiar with the matter," and Digitimes. Of course it will. Apple reportedly in 'preliminary contact' with distributors to bring iPhone to Iran (9to5 Mac) Source: Wall Street Journal's "people familiar with the matter" Chance it's true: Who knows Whether this is true or not, it's certain to be "welcome" news once the blowhards on a certain US-based cable news network find out about it.
Rumor Roundup: Jump to conclusions [Updated]
It's autumn in the Northern Hemisphere, which means the leaves are turning, pumpkin-spiced everything, Christmas music beginning promptly in mid-October, and the annual firehose of Apple rumors is streaming down to a tiny trickle. The gigantic iPad Pro will have significant competition (BGR) Source: Digitimes Chance it's true: None From the article: "Digitimes has learned from Taiwan-based suppliers that several companies are working on large-size tablets supposed to launch next year in the first or second quarter." Translation: Digitimes has strung together some random tech-related verbs and nouns into a typically vague, incoherent swill of a "report" that rumor blogs like BGR eagerly lap up in spite of the fact that Digitimes hasn't said one single provably correct thing this year. Digitimes is the laughingstock of the tech world, and anyone insipid enough to still take them seriously needs to take a long, hard look at their life. NFC-Equipped iPad Air 2 Sparks Speculation of Future Apple Pay Registers for Small Businesses [Updated] (MacRumors) Source: Reading way too much into things Chance it's true: None With that [Updated] suffix, you just know this is going to be entertainingly awful. From the article: "In a new article, Gigaom examines the reasons why Apple might include but not activate this hardware in its tablet device, speculating that the chip may eventually serve to help small businesses process payments." I saw some random Twitter speculation about this very thing a few weeks before the new iPads launched, and I got really excited. I thought this would be a genius move on Apple's part; lots of retailers are already using iPads as a POS terminal (that's Point of Sale, not Piece of Samsung), so having NFC reading capabilities built into the iPad would be an ingenious method for encouraging the spread of adoption not only of Apple Pay, but of the iPad itself. It would be a boon to small retailers and a huge lift to Apple's burgeoning payment system. Unfortunately, GigaOm and the re-reporting done at MacRumors missed a simple gotcha: the iPad Air 2 has an NFC chip, but no NFC antennas. In fact, 9to5 Mac's sources (whoever they might be) claim the NFC chip in the new iPads just the secure element for Apple Pay for in-app purchases. It isn't terribly surprising that, in the chase for pageviews and the rush to be FIRST!, so many outlets ran with this story without first checking to see if it made any logical sense. Given that the source of this speculation was based on an iPad teardown in the first place, it would have been so trivially easy to do a few minutes of fact-checking the rest of the teardown to see if the rest of the components necessary for contactless payments existed in the iPad Air 2. Instead, jump to conclusions, write it up, hit publish, then wind up with egg on your face. Mmm, eggs. And Apple, if you're listening? This iPad as payment terminal idea is definitely worth exploring. You should maybe get on that, like, yesterday.
Rumor Roundup: More questionable reports
Microsoft's pulse-tracking smartwatch rumored to land in time for holidays ahead of Apple Watch (9to5 Mac) Source: "People familiar with the matter" Chance it's true: Oh, it's too good not to be true. So here's the question: will this rumored Microsoft watch be prone to a Red Ring of Death via terrible hardware or constant Blue Screens of Death via terrible software? The answer, of course, is likely both. But Microsoft will still probably sell twice as many smartwatches as it has Surface tablets. So... two. Spotify Lowers Its Music Prices, Using a Family Plan. Apple Wants to Go Lower (re/code) Source: "Industry scuttlebutt" Chance it's true: 100 percent re/code claims Apple is looking to reduce the price of a Beats Music subscription to $5 per month. re/code says a lot of things about Apple. And so far, all of them have come true. AAPL will announce record quarter, predict analysts, with earnings up 11.9% (9to5 Mac) Source: Analysts Chance it's true: Let's find out. Analyst expectations (averaged): Revenue of $40.1 billion 37.9 million iPhones 13.2 million iPads 4.8 million Macs Actual numbers: Revenue of $42.1 billion 39.2 million iPhones 12.3 million iPads 5.5 million Macs So, off by $2 billion in revenue, by over a million iPhones, nearly a million iPads, and well over half a million Macs. These people, these "analysts" get paid real money for what they do. Just a reminder. More to myself than anything, because it's frankly astonishing. Apple Reportedly Preparing Holiday Launch of Apple Pay Loyalty Rewards Program (MacRumors) Source: "People familiar with the matter" Chance it's true: 50/50 The source of this report hasn't had enough of a track record yet to give it more than even odds. From my point of view, this news doesn't even matter; all I'm interested in, as someone who lives in the rather large part of the world that's not the United States, is when Apple Pay will work at all where I am. #COLORGATE? #RUBGATE? #DYEGATE? A HUGE new iPhone 6 problem has just been uncovered (BGR) Here's the latest from the team at BGR: "Some iPhone owners who don't cover their phones with a protective case are finding that after sliding an iPhone in and out of the pockets on their jeans for a period of time, some of the dye from the denim is rubbing off onto the plastic strips on the back of the phone. The result is an unsightly discoloration that makes the iPhone look dirty and old. Conventional soaps and other cleaning products one might use in an effort to remove the darkening on the plastic strips apparently have not worked." In the vacant, desiccated brains of BGR writers, this apparently counts as a HUGE iPhone 6 problem. It surely must be, because zero other rumor blogs chose to cover the issue. I would like to think this means BGR has officially hit the bottom of the barrel... but every time I think that, they go deeper still. It is with a sense of morbid curiosity that I wait to see what they'll come up with next.
Rumor Roundup: Stephen Colbert has his work cut out for him
iPhone rumors start out stupid and outlandish in the early part of the yearly cycle. The closer we get to the actual announcement, the less stupid and outlandish they get -- with the notable exception of analysts, who remain stupid and outlandish pretty much forever. The iPad rumor cycle this year was markedly different. I couldn't motivate myself to do the same nearly year-long deep dive I did for the iPhone rumor cycle -- even insomniacs need to sleep eventually -- but I did delve back as far as late May to see what shook out of the iPad/iMac rumor tree. Because I didn't go back farther than a few months, I likely missed several of the more wild-ass rumors that always eventuate at the start of a cycle. I'm okay with that, because I think we all know and understand the pattern by now. The iPad rumors were neither as numerous nor as inaccurate as the iPhone rumors. There was a notable dearth of analyst nonsense, and mockups were remarkably accurate several months before the iPad was announced. Clearly, Stephen Colbert has his work cut out for him as Apple's new rumor control czar. May KGI: Every new iOS device this year will be equipped with Touch ID, sensors to be more durable (9to5 Mac) Source: Everyone's favorite "accurate" analyst True: Yes June New iPad Air with same design, 8MP rear camera, and more efficient A8 chip enters production this month (9to5 Mac) Source: Asian publication True: Yes Photos: Purported physical mockups for new iPad Air show recessed volume rocker & Touch ID (9to5 Mac) Source: Mockups True: Yes Next Generation iPad Mini Depicted with Touch ID (MacRumors) Source: Terrible Photoshopping True: No, not really MAJOR LEAK: Next-gen iPad Air shown up close in new leaked pic (BGR) Source: Some guy on Twitter True: Not enough detail to tell July HUGE iPAD AIR 2 LEAK offers our best look yet at Apple's next tablet (BGR) Source: Mockup True: Yes Questionable Claim of 30% Slimmer 'iPad Mini Air' Launching in Late 2014 (MacRumors) Source: Taiwanese publication True: Not even close There isn't a single thing in this report that turned out to be true. August Claimed next-gen iPad Air rear shell photos show redesigned speaker, recessed volume controls (9to5 Mac) Source: Parts leak True: Yes Bloomberg says new iPads (with anti-reflective coating) go into production (9to5 Mac) Source: "People familiar with the matter" True: Yes Second-Generation iPad Air May Get Memory Boost to 2 GB (MacRumors) Source: Taiwanese website True: Yes September Digitimes says iPad Air 2 will be 'thinner' and have 'improved fingerprint recognition' (9to5 Mac) Source: Digitimes True: No Sorry, I'm not awarding Digitimes any points for predicting a next-gen Apple product will be thinner than the previous model. That is literally the easiest, most softball claim anyone can ever make about forthcoming Apple products. KGI report claims both iPhone 6 models to offer 128GB storage; iPad Air 2 launch on same day (9to5 Mac) Source: "Accurate" analyst Ming-Chi Kuo True: No I'm referring here specifically to Kuo's claim that the iPad Air 2 would be announced on the same day as the iPhone 6. That obviously did not happen. Report claims Apple will hold Oct. 21 event for new iPads and Yosemite (Updated) (9to5 Mac) Source: Some guy on some website True: No This was debunked literally within hours of being published. Fail. iPad Air 2 Rumored to Launch in October, Updated Retina iPad Mini May Come Later (MacRumors) Source: Taiwanese website True: 50/50 The iPad Air 2 launched in October, all right. The iPad mini 3 did too, unfortunately for this source's accuracy record. New Mac Mini Finally Coming in October Alongside New iPads? (MacRumors) Source: "People familiar with the matter" True: Yes Apple rumored to launch 27" iMac with 5K Retina display at October media event (AppleInsider) Source: "People familiar with the matter" True: Yes Test code hints at future iPads with Touch ID and Apple Pay (Engadget) Source: Deep dive into iOS beta code True Yes Bloomberg corroborates reports of gold iPad coming with next hardware revision (9to5 Mac) Source: "People familiar with the matter" True: Yes October New report claims to reveal release date for iOS 8.1 and Apple Pay (BGR) Source: "People familiar with the matter" True: Yes Apple to Hold iPad Event on October 16 (re/code) Source: "People familiar with the matter" True: Yes HUGE iPAD AIR 2 LEAK reveals everything there is to know about Apple's next tablet (BGR) Source: "People familiar with the matter" True: Yes Dummy unit shows expected 'iPad Air 2' design ahead of Apple's rumored Oct. 16 event (AppleInsider) Source: Mockup True: Yes Hidden graphical assets in iOS 8.1 beta 2 hint at 'Retina HD' iPads (AppleInsider) Source: Deep dive into iOS beta True: No The next-gen iPads have the same display resolution as the previous models. New Images of iPad Air 2 Parts Show Touch ID Home Button Cable, Logic Board With A8X Chip, and More (MacRumors) Source: Parts leak True: Yes No Retina MacBook Air at Thursday Apple Event (re/code) Source: "People familiar with the matter" True: Yes More Second-Generation iPad Air Part Leaks Point to A8X Chip, 2GB RAM, 16GB Storage Option (MacRumors) Source: Parts leak True: Yes Retina iPad Mini 2 Reportedly Coming Alongside iPad Air 2, New Smart Cover and Case Colors (MacRumors) Source: Japanese website True: Yes Apple Likely Planning October 24 Launch Date for New iPads (MacRumors) Source: "People familiar with the matter" True: -ish? Apple announced a date for pre-orders, but try (and Google) as I might, I can't find any reference to a launch date in physical stores. KGI: 27" Retina iMac ready to roll, 21" next year, iPad Air 2 supply constrained, iPad minis to see minimal updates (9to5 Mac) Source: "Accurate" analyst True: 50/50 The 27" iMac did come out with a Retina display, and the iPad mini 3 was a minimal update over the previous model. The other stuff is too far in the future to call either way. Digitimes still thinks the Retina MacBook Air is coming tomorrow, says Apple logos going 3D (9to5 Mac) Source: Digitimes True: HAHAHAHA no. Is there really any doubt remaining that Digitimes is the laughingstock of the tech media? No. No there is not. 'iPad Air 2' and 'iPad mini 3' with Touch ID & Burst Mode confirmed, show up early in iTunes (9to5 Mac) Source: Apple True: Yes. Oops.
Rumor Roundup: Pre/post 2014 iPad event
Well, this is slightly awkward. Due to the vagaries of time zones and schedules and "the real world" and various other bits of whatnot, by the time this Rumor Roundup is published Apple's event will have already taken place. Oh, well. In the grand tradition of all things media, I'm just going to blame it all on Apple. It's their fault for holding an event on a Thursday, you see. Speaking of that event, what can we expect to see? iPad Air 2 and iPad mini 3: 100% These two devices are externally physically identical to their predecessors, with the exception of Touch ID sensors. This isn't just speculation or prediction; it's a certainty for reasons that will become clear later on. iOS 8.1 with Apple Pay: 100% OS X Yosemite: 100% Basically everyone expects both of these bits of software to be featured tomorrow, with a launch date soon after (if not the same day). iMac with Retina Display: 50/50 Although this thing has been widely rumored for about two years, there hasn't been a single leaked part for it. The only reason I've given this even odds is because John Paczkowski of re/code expects to see it, and he almost always knows what he's talking about. Speaking of which... MacBook Air with Retina Display: 0% Paczkowski's sources, which have been batting 1000 so far, have said not to expect this long-rumored device to appear tomorrow. That's about it. Apple may or may not have something else up its sleeve, as always, but tomorrow's event seems like we've already had a glimpse of all the presents under the wrapping. Apple Pay setup detailed & retailers begin training as service launches at Apple HQ (9to5 Mac) Source: "People familiar with the matter" Chance it's true: 100 percent "I am convinced" that Apple will change the name and look of Apple Pay because of this leak. (And no, that joke will never get old.) No Retina MacBook Air at Thursday Apple Event (re/code) Source: "People familiar with the matter" Chance it's true: 100 percent re/code hasn't been wrong yet, and I don't see it being wrong this time, either. More Second-Generation iPad Air Part Leaks Point to A8X Chip, 2GB RAM, 16GB Storage Option (MacRumors) Source: Parts leak Chance it's true: 100 percent This matches an earlier leak, and historically the accuracy of these leaks is very high when we're this close to an actual event. Retina iPad Mini 2 Reportedly Coming Alongside iPad Air 2, New Smart Cover and Case Colors (MacRumors) Source: Japanese website Chance it's true: 75 percent The bit about the next-gen iPad mini is definitely correct (more on that later). It remains to be seen if the Smart Covers and Smart Cases will get tweaked colors, but it wouldn't be surprising. Apple Likely Planning October 24 Launch Date for New iPads (MacRumors) Source: "People familiar with the matter" Chance it's true: 90 percent Actually releasing/shipping an announced product one week following its public unveiling is entirely in character for Apple, so this is most likely true. KGI: 27" Retina iMac ready to roll, 21" next year, iPad Air 2 supply constrained, iPad minis to see minimal updates (9to5 Mac) Source: "Accurate" KGI analyst Chance it's true: 40 percent Bear in mind that this is the same "accurate" analyst who said an iPad mini upgrade wasn't coming at all in 2014. Oops. Despite what the rumor blogs would have you believe, not every word that dribbles out of this guy's maw should be taken as gospel. Only about 40 percent of them should. The trick is knowing which 40 percent. TSMC Reportedly in Charge of A8X Chip Production for 12.9-Inch iPad [Updated] (MacRumors) Source: Digitimes Chance it's true: None We've apparently reached the portion of the "news" cycle where rumor blogs don't even bother mentioning Digitimes' notorious lack of credibility. Again. Here, I'll pick up the slack: Digitimes hasn't had a single correct rumor this year. They are completely full of it. Absolutely nothing they say about Apple is worth paying attention to. There, was that so hard? Digitimes still thinks the Retina MacBook Air is coming tomorrow, says Apple logos going 3D (9to5 Mac) Source: Digitimes Chance it's true: Absolutely, positively none at all It's bad enough that this is coming from the worst source possible, but this "report" dares to attempt to contradict re/code, which is one of the best sources possible. You almost couldn't ask for a more obviously stupid rumor than this one... so of course, 9to5 Mac reblogged it anyway. 'iPad Air 2' and 'iPad mini 3' with Touch ID & Burst Mode confirmed, show up early in iTunes (9to5 Mac) Source: Apple Chance it's true: 100 percent Oops. This is basically like coming downstairs at 6 am on Christmas morning and seeing your parents putting presents under the tree and eating the cookies you left out the night before. Not that this ever happened to me, or scarred me for life, or anything like that.
Rumor Roundup: Unannounced Apple product delayed until next year (yes, again)
New Photo Claims to Show 2 GB Elpida RAM Chips for iPad Air 2 (MacRumors) Source: Some website even MacRumors has never heard of before Chance it's true: 50/50 If these chips were shown attached to a logic board, I'd say this rumor was a lock for being true. Presented on their own, however, the best I can give this is even odds. It does make perfect sense for Apple to up the RAM in the next iPad Air. The current version of the iPad Air is my primary computer, and while it's a tremendous device in absolutely every other way, the relatively small amount of RAM is pretty noticeable. Apple Delaying Mass Production of 12.9-Inch iPad to Deal with Strong iPhone 6 Plus Demand (MacRumors) Source: Wall Street Journal's "people familiar with the matter" Chance it's true: Who knows Based on the headline I could have sworn this was more BS from Digitimes. Since this is from the Wall Street Journal instead, this rumor at least has a greater-than-zero chance of being true. However, since this rumor also falls under the "Unannounced Apple product delayed until next year" umbrella, I don't find it terribly credible. Philips TVs bundled with Apple TV launch in India as part of alleged partnership [u] (AppleInsider) The rumor blogs initially reported this as the Apple TV software being bundled into Philips TV sets, and in their rush to be FIRST! to post, they didn't pause to ponder whether that made a single bit of sense (it didn't). The real scenario is far more mundane: Apple TV boxes are being bundled with Philips TVs. Apple Reportedly Preparing to Remove Bose Audio Products From Retail Stores (MacRumors) Source: "People familiar with the matter" Chance it's true: 50/50 The main reason this removal might have gone through appears to no longer be valid; the lawsuit between Bose and Beats is over with, so there's a decent chance this won't happen after all. New Images of iPad Air 2 Parts Show Touch ID Home Button Cable, Logic Board With A8X Chip, and More (MacRumors) Source: Parts leak Chance it's true: 100 percent With the iPhone 6, the closer we got to the actual launch date, the more accurate the parts leaks became. The iPad Air 2 is likely to follow the same pattern... especially since it's expected to be announced later this week. Therefore, I'm comfortable saying these images are legitimate.
Rumor Roundup: Digitimes nonsense factories
Apple sapphire crystal supplier GT Advanced files for bankruptcy (9to5 Mac) Just so we're clear, a company was rumored to provide sapphire screens for the iPhone 6, and those rumors later turned out to be false, and as a direct result, this company has been forced to file for bankruptcy. Tell me all about how Apple rumors are perfectly harmless and you rumormongers are simply posting them "for purposes of discussion." HUGE iPAD AIR 2 LEAK reveals everything there is to know about Apple's next tablet (BGR) Source: Some website Chance it's true: None BGR claims this is a HUGE LEAK, but unfortunately for their ALL-CAPS ENTHUSIASM, MacRumors poured a bucket of cold water on this poorly-sourced nonsense and said these iPad Air 2 claims are likely based on circulating rumors, not genuine leaked information. Another day, another swing and a miss for BGR. Apple might sell more than 200 million iPhone 6 units in FY2015 (BGR) Source: Digitimes Chance it's true: Zero times zero times infinity Digitimes hasn't had a single correct rumor in 2014. "Wait, baby, don't go, this time it'll be different! I know I've got it wrong 2348 times before, but I can change! You'll see. I can stop making completely illogical claims based on poorly-sourced or outright made-up information and hearsay. I won't be the laughingstock of tech reporting forever. I promise!" Sketchy rumor suggests Apple will converge a refrigerator and a toaster, 12.9 inch iPad will run both iOS and OS X (9to5 Mac) Source: Digitimes Chance it's true: Absolutely none at all 9to5 Mac calls this rumor "sketchy" but reblogs it anyway, even though it's clearly not even remotely close to being true based on the source, because pageviews. With stronger than expected demand for iPhone 6 Plus, Apple reportedly shifting some production away from iPhone 6 (9to5 Mac) Source: Digitimes Chance it's true: The same odds that 9to5 Mac will ever value its reputation more than its pageviews. This is apparently the week of credulously (or semi-incredulously) reblogging every last thing that spews out of the sewers downstream from Digitimes' nonsense factories. You guys. Digitimes has an accuracy record of ZERO FREAKING PERCENT this year. I promise it's safe to ignore them from now on. After incorrect report on Apple's use of sapphire on iPhone 6, WSJ claims Apple changed plans last minute (AppleInsider) This takedown of one analyst's widely reblogged nonsense on the "sapphire screens for iPhone 6" meme is well-researched, epic, and damning. The final section, which serves up some similarly tasty claim chowder on 9to5 Mac's incorrect rumor reporting earlier this year, is even more satisfying to behold. The biggest takeaway from this report? When rumormongers get caught out making false predictions, they inevitably throw their toys and claim it's all Apple's fault. We knew this already, but it's nice to see someone else pointing it out, too. Apple's Ultra-Slim 12-Inch Notebook Reportedly Entering Production in Small Quantities (MacRumors) Source: Digitimes Chance it's true: Nada. Zip. Zilch. I don't know how I knew this stupid "report" was sourced from Digitimes just by reading the headline, but I did. Dummy unit shows expected 'iPad Air 2' design ahead of Apple's rumored Oct. 16 event (AppleInsider) Took long enough for the iPad mockups (and the reporting on said mockups as though they actually matter) to start cropping up. Two things about this rumor set off the BS alarm: the lack of a mute/orientation lock switch, and the fact that this mockup is "the same thickness as the iPhone 6" but doesn't have a protruding camera. Since the entire reason the camera protrudes from the iPhone 6 is because Apple can't re-write the laws of physics and make decent optics smaller than they are, this means one of two things: the mockups are inaccurate, or the camera in the iPad Air 2 is going to suck. Hidden graphical assets in iOS 8.1 beta 2 hint at 'Retina HD' iPads (AppleInsider) Source: Deep dive into an iOS beta Chance it's true: Unknown While these types of leaks usually bear fruit (eventually), there have been no other indications - reputable or otherwise - that the next-gen iPads will be getting a display resolution bump. We'll see.
Rumor Roundup: Pyre of Fail
Chinese rumor suggests Apple Watch to launch in February, sapphire to blame for low supply (9to5 Mac) Source: Taiwanese media, via Chinese website Chance it's true: 50/50 Here's another entry in the ongoing "Apple Watch launch date bingo" game. Even 9to5 Mac is savvy enough to note that "the limiting factor on Apple Watch isn't really component availability. First things first, Apple needs to finish the development of the Apple Watch software and hardware internally." True enough. Which is exactly why any "report" like this one can be safely ignored. New report claims to reveal release date for iOS 8.1 and Apple Pay (BGR) Source: "People familiar with the matter" Chance it's true: 50/50 Given a later report (from a very reputable source) that Apple will be holding a major event on October 16, this date doesn't seem outside the realm of possibility. Apple Asks the Music Labels for a Price Cut on Streaming Subscriptions (re/code) Source: "People familiar with the matter" Chance it's true: 100 percent re/code's rumor reporting on Apple has been as close to impeccable as is possible in this arena. The big question is how Apple will manage to convince the money-hungry music industry to agree to a buffet-style service that costs less than $10 per month - a price that's already lower than the price of a single album. Digitimes says iPhone 6 Plus accounting for 60% of iPhone 6 shipments, but usage stats suggest otherwise (9to5 Mac) Source: Digitimes Chance it's true: Zeeeeeeeeero. Digitimes adds another log onto its Pyre of Fail. When 9to5 Mac (of all sites) makes an effort to debunk your wild-ass claims, it's probably time to hang up your hat. Apple to Hold iPad Event on October 16 (re/code) Source: "People familiar with the matter" Chance it's true: 100 percent Again, re/code's reporting on these matters is all but unassailable. Until or unless proven otherwise, you can pretty much take anything John Paczkowski says about Apple as gospel. Granted, Apple hasn't officially sent out any media invites for this event yet, but given the resounding lack of a "Nope" from Jim Dalrymple of The Loop or any similarly reputable source, I feel comfortable backing this rumor.
Rumor Roundup: Screaming from the digital rooftops
Apple Watch's advanced AMOLED display far more costly than traditional screens - report (AppleInsider) Source: Some market research firm Chance it's true: 30 percent. Probably. I don't know where these guys got the idea that Apple is using a plastic AMOLED display in the Apple Watch. Apple hasn't even officially announced the device's display resolution, much less any of the specific technology underlying that display. This "report" is therefore entirely speculative tosh from a source that has been wrong far more often than it's been right. Apple rumored to launch 27" iMac with 5K Retina display at October media event (AppleInsider) Source: "People familiar with the matter" Chance it's true: 50/50 This report is extremely specific in its details, so we shall see. However, we are approaching (possibly exceeding) two years of rumors about Retina displays for iMacs with no payoff yet, so I'm pessimistic enough about the truthiness of this rumor that I'll be pleasantly surprised if it turns out to be correct. Apple developing iOS 8.1, 8.2, & 8.3 in shift for 2015 launches (9to5 Mac) Source: "People familiar with the matter" plus reading way too much into things Chance it's true: Who knows. It doesn't make much sense to me for Apple to be testing multiple in-house alpha-dot versions of its OS at once, but I can extrapolate some reasons why Apple might choose to go that route. What's most entertaining about this piece is watching 9to5 Mac flail blindly about trying to come up with its own rationalization. They throw out so many possibilities that if even one of them turns out to be correct, you can count on them screaming it from the digital rooftops for all to hear and admire. Test code hints at future iPads with Touch ID and Apple Pay (Engadget) Source: Deep dive into iOS code Chance it's true: 100 percent A couple weeks ago, I read speculation on Twitter that the next iPads might have integrated NFC that would allow them to act as payment terminals for retailers, the perfect companions to the iPhone 6 and 6 plus, and an alternative to third-party NFC terminals. If Apple does something like this, it'll be the genius move to end all genius moves. I've witnessed plenty of retailers using iPads as their cash register interface already, and throwing NFC into the mix could easily make the iPad the device of choice for small to medium-sized retailers all over the world. Upcoming gigantic 'iPad Pro' will reportedly get displays from Apple's biggest rival (BGR) Source: Digitimes Chance it's true: None Digitimes has a whopping zero percent accuracy record so far this year. They are the laughingstock of the tech world - as is anyone who continues to take their nonsense seriously. Apple Watch production reportedly starting sooner than you might think (BGR) Source: Taiwanese website Chance it's true: 30 percent Count on absolutely everyone playing the Apple Watch Launch Date Bingo guessing game for the next three months. At least. Bloomberg corroborates reports of gold iPad coming with next hardware revision (9to5 Mac) Source: "People familiar with the matter" Chance it's true: Who knows Show me a single iPad shell with gold coloring - and mockups don't count - and I might take this rumor at face value. Piper Jaffray advises 'conservative expectations' for Apple Watch, predicts first-year sales of 10M (AppleInsider) Source: Some analyst Chance it's true: Zero Although analyst Gene Munster is best known for his years-long, Quixotic insistence that Apple is going to release an HDTV any day now, his real talent lies in making very specific predictions of Apple's sales numbers and then missing those predictions to the tune of millions of units.
Rumor Roundup: One million yeaaaaars dungeon
Rumored 12.9-Inch 'iPad Pro' May Include More Powerful A8X Processor (MacRumors) Source: Taiwanese website Chance it's true: 30 percent The standard disclaimer for Taiwanese sources applies: their track record isn't great, so it's usually not worth taking them at face value. Additionally, if this rumored product isn't set to launch until early 2015, it's almost certain that this "report" has most if not all of its details wrong. It's only in the months immediately preceding an actual launch that rumors start haphazardly zeroing in on the truth; anything earlier than that is almost always dismissible as pure noise. New Mac Mini Finally Coming in October Alongside New iPads? (MacRumors) Source: "People familiar with the matter" Chance it's true: 50/50 MacRumors itself notes that Intel's processor roadmap doesn't bode well for imminent updates of any Macs, but at the same time the Mac mini is Apple's entry-level desktop Mac and may not necessarily need to wait for the next-gen Intel hotness. The Mac mini has gone long stretches without an update before - more than once the gap has been long enough to prompt speculation that Apple was killing it altogether. Apple expected to begin selling iPhone 6 in China on October 10 (AppleInsider) Source: "People familiar with the matter" Chance it's true: Yeah, probably China has become one of Apple's largest markets, so who's surprised they're trying to get the iPhone launched there ASAP? BMO sees Apple selling 189M iPhones & 12M Watches in fiscal 2015, raises target to $110 (AppleInsider) Source: The Candy Kingdom Chance it's true: UNACCEPTABLLLLLLLLE! We're sourcing rumors from this guy now? Mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmkay.
Rumor Roundup: Debunked by Apple itself
Rumor: Apple Watch to feature 512MB of RAM, 4GB of storage (AppleInsider) Source: Some analyst Chance it's true: 30 percent, at most Some analyst repeats the same stuff some other analyst spewed a couple weeks ago. For some reason, this is considered newsworthy. Not that any of these specs seem particularly outlandish, but claiming to have real knowledge of this device's innards when Apple hasn't even offered a launch date yet? There's a fine line between bravery and stupidity, fellas. More 12-inch MacBook Air details: reversible USB Type C, MagSafe gone, slimmer fanless design (9to5 Mac) Source: Some guy who allegedly knows "people familiar with the matter" Chance it's true: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ The big problems with this report: The source has no verifiable track record The payoff for this rumor is way off in the future The report reads like a checklist of nerdgasm features while completely glossing over the engineering implications (seriously, an Intel processor that "can keep at low temperatures and high performance without a heat sink"? I am skeptical, to say the least.) Apple Reportedly Planning to Shut Down Beats Music [Update: Not True] (MacRumors) Source: "People familiar with the matter" Chance it's true: None. Zero. Debunked by Apple itself. This story prompted a couple Apple bloggers who I actually respect to say this is exactly the sort of thing that makes them glad they don't post rumor stories anymore. Everyone who passed this on credulously - including, sadly, our sister publication TechCrunch - looks asinine in the wake of this journalistic debacle. iPad Air 2 Rumored to Launch in October, Updated Retina iPad Mini May Come Later (MacRumors) Source: Taiwanese website Chance it's true: 30% While none of the items in this report strike me as being outside the realm of plausibility (with the exception of the nonsense about the "iPad Pro"), Taiwanese publications don't have an exceptionally good (or even passably good) track record when it comes to Apple rumors. Apple Will Be 'Lucky' to Ship Apple Watch by Valentine's Day (MacRumors) Source: "People familiar with the matter" Chance it's true: Highly likely The engineering and software development challenges of actually pulling off something like the Apple Watch are, predictably, daunting. Other companies (*cough*Samsung*cough*Motorola*hackhackcough*) might be content to rush half-baked and semi-functional geek-focused junk to the market in a questionable attempt to be first(!), but that's not Apple's modus operandi. The Apple Watch will hit store shelves when Apple is satisfied that it not only doesn't suck, but that it's something that delivers on the company's legacy of quality products. That's all a highfalutin way of saying it'll ship when it's ready, kids. Not a second earlier.
Rumor Roundup: Fast news day
Given that this is the week the iPhone launched, it's not surprising there was very little to be gleaned from the rumor mill amongst all the actual, real news happening in the tech world. Matter of fact, neither of the stories cited below are actual rumors and are, instead, two emblems of journalistic failure - both from the same sadly unsurprising source. Oh no! Your worst iPhone 6 Plus fear has been confirmed Normally I include the name of the website after the link, but I'm betting you can guess where this came from based completely on the hyperbolic, drama-queen clickbait headline. Yes, it's our old "friends" BGR up to their old shenanigans. And let me save you yet another click: the iPhone 6 Plus has "only" 1 GB of RAM. BGR wastes its readers' time for several paragraphs before finally arriving at the point, then just as rapidly veers from that point. The headline is doubly mystifying when you consider that both versions of the iPhone 6 come with "only" a gigabyte of RAM, not just the iPhone 6 Plus. At any rate, the fact that the iPhone 6 Plus has a single, solitary gig of RAM wasn't my biggest fear about this device. My biggest fear was that after close to three years of pointing and laughing at Samsung aficionados with their gigantic phones, if I got a 6 Plus I'd be a plus-sized hypocrite. Actually, that's not true either. My biggest iPhone 6 Plus fear was that the monstrous thing wouldn't fit in my motorcycle jacket. This is what a more fashionable Apple Watch might look like Just when I was wondering what bored, underemployed graphic designers would do with themselves now that the iPhone 6 and Apple Watch have been unveiled, this BGR reblogging comes out to answer my question. "What if famous fashion designers were given the opportunity to design their own versions of the Apple Watch? How might its look have changed? We'll probably never know," but BGR and some designer are on it to show us all "how much different a fashion-forward Apple Watch would have been." And these supposedly "fashion-forward" designs? Yeah, they all suck. I would take absolutely any of the designs Apple announced over these mockups. That includes the hot pink Sport Band with a butterfly watch face. Pro tip: if you're going to try to out-design Jonathan Ive... just don't.
Rumor Roundup: Crystalline dreams
Apple Pay may mean the end of physical bank cards within 2-3 years, argues Moven CEO (9to5 Mac) Source: Some CEO Chance it's true: None This is a case of a guy whose eyes are bigger than his stomach (or brain). Apple Pay seems cool and all, and I'm truly looking forward to using it when it finally makes it down to New Zealand sometime in the mid 2020s, but to say that physical bank cards will be gone in 2-3 years seems like the wildest hyperbole. How are all the people without iPhones (or other smartphones) supposed to pay for things if plastic cards are gone? Cash? A check? Brightly colored beads? If he'd said 10-15 years, I might have bought this. 10 points for enthusiasm, but minus several million for good sense. Retina iMacs and Apple Displays Within Reach as New DisplayPort 1.3 Spec Finalized (MacRumors) Source: Reading way too much into things Chance it's true: Who knows. The fact that the specification has been finalized doesn't mean Retina-class desktops are in Apple's near future. They may or may not be, but the implications made in this article are heavily speculative. Blockbuster start for iPhone 6 suggests Apple on track to sell 60M phones in December quarter (AppleInsider) Source: A bunch of analysts Chance it's true: 30 percent. At most. Analysts toss a bunch of numerals in the air and read out whatever falls on the dank floors of their offices. We're supposed to care what they think, for some reason never adequately explained. Major Chinese business paper claims iPhone 6 won't go on sale in China this year – reliability unclear (9to5 Mac) Source: Chinese newspaper Chance it's true: 50/50 When you have to write the words "reliability unclear" in your headline, it's time to step back and ask if the story is worth publishing in the first place. If you care about being a credible source of news and have respect for your readers, then probably not. If instead you care about feeding the pageview monster at all cost, then by all means, publish that questionably reliable story without delay. Ive's design team might be to blame for the Apple Watch's poor battery life (BGR) Source: Some guy who used to work for Apple Chance it's true: Who knows. The New York Times interviewed some guy who supposedly used to work for Apple, and his claims about the Apple Watch can only be framed in that light: this guy had nothing to do with the device's design. Does he have a clue what he's talking about, then? Who knows. What's more, who cares? Pageview gold either way! Report claims Apple will hold Oct. 21 event for new iPads and Yosemite (Updated) (9to5 Mac) Source: "People familiar with the matter" Chance it's true: None. Zip. Zero. This story got a big "nope" from Jim Dalrymple, who knows of what he speaks. Burned again, rumor blogs. Better luck next time! Foxconn employee detained by Chinese police for iPhone 6 shell leaks (9to5 Mac) Turns out there are very real and possibly severe consequences for those who steal and sell Apple's property to the highest bidder. But only in China. If you're a Silicon Valley blogger, you get away scot free. Apple 'never' planned to use sapphire covers for iPhone 6 or iPhone 6 Plus - report (AppleInsider) Source: "People familiar with the matter" Chance it's true: 100 percent So much analyst nonsense and similarly poorly-sourced hype surrounded the possibility of sapphire covers for the iPhone 6 that many people were hardcore disappointed when the device debuted with just boring old ion-strengthened glass. Ho-hum. Meanwhile, it turns out Apple had no designs on sapphire display covers for the iPhone 6, for multiple reasons. My dad messaged me a few days after the iPhone 6 debut and asked if he should upgrade his 4S to a 6, "or wait for the sapphire crystal, which may be coming next year?" "Upgrade now," I said. "Don't put your trust in rumors." Imagine if my dad held out for another year solely on the hope that the iPhone 6s would have some magical sapphire display cover. September 2015 rolls around, the iPhone 6s comes out, and guess what? No sapphire. Who do you think my dad ends up blaming? The jackass rumor blogs? The legions of dipstick analysts who don't have a clue what they're talking about? Of course not. He'd blame Apple. Most people would. If anyone wonders why I hate stupid Apple rumors, stupidly-sourced news about Apple, and stupid rumor bloggers who treat every word some know-nothing analyst spews forth about Apple like it's gospel, that's why. Perfectly normal and otherwise intelligent people are altering their purchasing decisions because they've fallen for pageview-hungry BS. It needs to stop. But since I know it won't, here I am.
Rumor Roundup: Running with percentages
The trouble with last week's 2014 Rumor Retrospective: it took eight hours to research and compile a 6000-word post, and I was up until two in the morning writing it. I went into my day job the next day with a brain firing on maybe 3 of 12 cylinders. Insomnia: because playing the game of life on Easy Mode is for wusses. The upshot of going through all that: from now on I have a reference sheet to fall back upon to determine how likely a rumor is to be true based on its source. No more of this touchy-feely "analysts are almost never right" stuff. I've got hard numbers now. And I'm not afraid to use them. Before I get to the ten stupid rumors that have come out in the past few days, I'll first visit a few that fell through the cracks last week. Macotakara: 4.7-inch iPhone called 'iPhone 6′, 5.5-inch model 'iPhone 6 Plus' (9to5 Mac) Source: Some Japanese website True: Yes Macotakara was spot-on. 9to5 Mac said "this naming convention does not seem incredibly likely," which leads me to believe that whatever sources they may have once had within Apple are gone, daddy, gone. Both 4.7-Inch and 5.5-Inch iPhone 6 Models Reportedly Launching on September 19 (MacRumors) Source: Some French website True: Yes My favourite part of this report is how MacRumors tries to rationalize it against the contrasting predictions of "accurate" analyst Ming-Chi Kuo - predictions which were later proven to be completely wrong. This might be Apple's secret sauce for the iWatch (BGR) Source: A bunch of analysts True: Too early to tell Apple didn't mention any advanced medical monitoring features for the Apple Watch at its keynote. The device is still several months away from launch, though, so there's always a chance this could still happen. Given that the source of this "report" is a bunch of analysts, however, the odds of this actually happening are roughly 30 percent. This is big: Apple's iWatch is reportedly getting PayPal support (BGR) Source: Some website True: Too early to tell Apple certainly didn't mention PayPal during its keynote. Instead, it announced its own payment program: Apple Pay, which will indeed be integrated into the Apple Watch. Third-party support for PayPal could be added later on down the line, however, which is why this rumor can't be dismissed out of hand immediately. ★ Prelude to Tomorrow's Big-Ass iPhone Apple Event (Daring Fireball) Source: Legitimately intelligent analysis True: Mostly With the sole exception of the iPhone 6 Plus's screen resolution, Gruber pretty much nailed it. Mayo Clinic to Reportedly Help Present iOS 8's Health App at Apple's Media Event (MacRumors) Source: Some Minnesooootan newspaper True: Nope This didn't happen. It's anyone's guess if it was ever going to happen. And now for the recent crop of rumors... Alleged iPhone 6 Geekbench Results Reveal 1.4 GHz Dual-Core A8 Chip, 1 GB of RAM (MacRumors) Source: Some Chinese website Odds it's true: About 50/50 Although I can't remember a time when Geekbench results like this were successfully faked, the source of this rumor still gives me pause. This needs confirmation from a second source before it's worth calling this plausible. Apple rumored to be in acquisition talks with Path for another attempt at social networking (9to5 Mac) Source: "People familiar with the matter" Odds it's true: About 90 percent Stories sourced from "people familiar with the matter" within Apple turn out to be true a staggeringly large amount of the time. Whether it actually makes sense for Apple to acquire/acquihire Path or not is another matter. Apple's prior efforts at social networking (*cough*Ping*cough*) haven't exactly taken the world by storm, and even though all the major players in social networking seem to be almost going out of their way to violate the trust of the very users who made them popular in the first place, they still have an almost insurmountable mindshare cache in place. Notably, this rumor did not receive the "nope" treatment from legitimately well-connected Jim Dalrymple of The Loop, so there's that. It appears that the iPhone 5c experiment won't soon be repeated (BGR) Source: BGR stupidity Odds it's true: Not even remotely plausible In its ongoing, Quixotic quest to paint the iPhone 5c as a failure, BGR is now claiming that the lack of an iPhone 6c announcement is somehow proof that this "failed experiment" won't soon be repeated. BGR must have been asleep, drunk or high for the portion of the keynote where it was announced that the iPhone 5c is now free on contract. That's huge. The 5c is essentially the guts of an iPhone 5 in a plastic shell, and people can get one for zero dollars. Zero. Dollars. I'd bet a stack of coins that John Gruber's prediction for 2015 is correct, and next year's "5c" device ends up being largely the same, but with iPhone 5s internals and Touch ID added on. That gives Apple until late 2016 to figure out what its "free on contract" option will be. As that's more than two years in the future, I wouldn't even dare to hazard a guess what that might be. The point is, Apple's "failure flop" iPhone 5c is proving to be a shrewder move than the dopes at BGR seem to be capable of comprehending. Apple Watch Battery Life - "Charge Nightly" (re/code) Source: "People familiar with the matter" Odds it's true: 100 percent re/code's sources within Apple are rock-solid. More than that, this makes perfect sense. If Apple were thrilled with the current battery life on the Apple Watch, they'd have crowed about it onstage at the keynote. Instead, it barely got mentioned, and the "hands-on" area was very carefully managed. Getting decent battery life out of something small enough to be worn on your wrist may well be the biggest engineering challenge Apple has faced since developing the original iPhone. In fact, this may be worse, because battery technology doesn't have an equivalent of Moore's Law. It's likely that the first-gen Apple Watch's battery life will be underwhelming when it launches. It's equally likely - one might call it certain - that the second-gen version will have "improved battery life" as a tentpole feature. Sketchy supply-chain report says production gearing-up for 80M iPhone 6 sales this year (9to5 Mac) Source: Digitimes Odds it's true: Snowball's chance in Hell Digitimes' accuracy record for 2014 is a whopping zero percent. It is truly mystifying why anyone still pays attention to them. Apple's Ultra-Slim 12-Inch Notebook Coming in Mid-2015 With Silver, Gold, and Space Gray Options? (MacRumors) Source: Some analyst Odds it's true: 30 percent - at best I've never heard of this analyst before, the device in question has no sources for its existence other than the ravings of other analysts, the rumored launch date is comfortably far enough in the future that people will forget about it if (when) this doesn't happen, the claims in the report itself are outlandish, and MacRumors has the temerity to use Digitimes nonsense as corroborating evidence. Analysts are the worst possible source of Apple news, and this "report" has all the hallmarks of a steaming pile of techno-poo. Future Versions of Apple Watch to Include Additional Sensors, 'Richer Health Features' (MacRumors) Source: "People familiar with the matter" Odds it's true: 100 percent The big question here is not whether future versions of the Apple Watch will have additional functionality beyond that announced for the first-gen product. That's such an obvious "yes" that it barely merits mentioning. What's really worth asking is whether this "ten sensor" and "rich health tracking" features stuff was ever in the running for the first-gen Apple Watch to begin with, or if it was all just the typical BS where people expect a new Apple product to do absolutely everything possible under the sun right out of the box, on day one. Because people had such overinflated expectations for this device, it will of course be branded "disappointing" even after it launches and sells by the millions. When the second-gen version addresses most of the initial model's shortcomings, it'll be "proof" that Apple is only capable of incremental improvements and has forgotten how to innovate. When the third-gen is another incremental improvement, the tech press will go absolutely nuts trying to find new ways to predict Apple's doom. By the time the fourth-gen Apple Watch gets lost in a bar and leaked on Gizmodo announced at an Apple keynote, it will be everything anyone dreamed the current version could be - and more - but it will still, somehow, be "disappointing." And there you have it: Apple Watch tech punditry through the year 2017. Report claims 27-inch Retina iMac w/ 5K display will arrive by end of year (9to5 Mac) Source: Taiwanese website Odds it's true: 30 percent Sources from Taiwan haven't had a particularly high accuracy record, and the cited report only mentions Apple in passing, toward the end of the media release, almost in a completely throwaway fashion. Square reportedly declined $3B Apple acquisition offer [update: nope] (AppleInsider) Source: "People familiar with the matter" Odds it's true: Nope Right after I get done issuing praise for how often these PFWTM rumors are, this one turns out to be completely bogus after getting the "nope" from Jim Dalrymple. Gold 'Apple Watch Edition' could cost $1,200, industry insiders say (AppleInsider) Source: Some dudes or other Odds it's true: Man, like, who knows? From the article: "At this point [...] tacking a price on the high-end Apple Watch Edition is largely guesswork." I'm surprised AppleInsider didn't roll out that tired old excuse that this speculative nonsense was "offered for purposes of discussion." Here's my prediction, based on just as much evidence as these jokers had - which is to say, "none at all": the high-end Apple Watch Edition will either cost surprisingly less than "insiders" are expecting or significantly more than "normal" people are expecting. I'm not a fan of gold, so the point is moot for me. It's black anodised aluminium for all of my portable electronics, thank you... black as pitch, black as night, black as the abyss that stares back.
Rumor Roundup: iPhone 6 and 'iWatch' retrospective
The iPhone 6 and Apple Watch have both been unveiled to the public. And lo, the rumor bloggers wept, for there were no more worlds to conquer. As is customary, I've done a post-event roundup of the rumors. However, I went fully overboard this time. Not content to merely go over the past few months worth of nonsense, I looked at absolutely every rumor relating to either the iPhone 6 or the Apple Watch, going all the way back to the beginning of 2014. I could have gone back even farther, but I'd probably have died from that much short-term exposure to acute stupidity. I learned a few things in the process and confirmed several long-held suspicions. First, analysts really do not know a damned thing about Apple. Seriously. It's pitiful. It's so rare to see them actually get something right that I almost want to give them a cookie and a balloon when they finally do. Second, parts leaks are pretty much the gold standard of rumors these days. If you see a photo of a component, chances are very good it's real. Apple has a serious problem with the secrecy in its supply chain; accurate blueprints of the iPhone 6 leaked in the beginning of April. That's nuts. Third, and predictably, the farther away an Apple event is, the less likely any rumors are to be true. In fact, the correct rumors are so few and far between, and the ramp-up in accuracy and volume of rumors so steep in the month preceding an Apple event, that you could very easily pay no attention whatsoever to Apple rumors for 11 months out of the year and be far more well-informed than you would be if you followed them closely all year long. Fourth, and just as predictably, it's easy to see why rumor bloggers get so defensive about having their accuracy records challenged: all they remember are the good months. For transparency's sake, the entire log of 2014 rumors related to the iPhone 6 and the Apple Watch is below, complete with the source of the rumor, whether the rumor turned out to be true or not, and usually an explanation for why it wasn't correct. Some interesting numbers came out of this based on my only partially mathematical and admittedly flawed scoring system: Out of 189 total rumors, a consolidated total of 96 received points for being correct. That's just barely better odds than flipping a coin. Seems appropriate. Digitimes' accuracy record was 0%. Shocker. Analysts other than Ming-Chi Kuo scored 30%. This was way higher than I expected, but still nowhere near high enough to justify the amount of attention they're given. "Accurate" Ming-Chi Kuo's record was 44%. And that was after being generous. Rumors with Chinese websites as the source were accurate 47% of the time. Rumors with Taiwanese websites as the source were accurate 31% of the time. Bloggers reading way too much into things ended up being accurate 30% of the time. 83% of all rumors sourced from leaked photos of identifiable parts (not ribbon cables, in other words) turned out to be accurate. There were a staggeringly high number of these leaks - almost 30 in total - and this one category considerably bumped up the overall rumor accuracy percentage. All leaks sourced from within Foxconn were accurate. August was by far the month with the most accurate rumors; 70% of rumors during this month turned out to be true. 9to5 Mac's well of rumors sourced from Apple employees appears to have run dry since July. "I am convinced" Apple has fired someone because of the leaks. January Early 'iWatch' Production Seeing Poor Yields Due to Issues with Body Finish Treatments? (MacRumors) Source: DigiTimes True: No idea There's no way of knowing for sure what actually caused the Apple Watch's "delayed" launch. New report says 4.7-inch and 5.7-inch iPhones both coming this year (BGR) Source: Chinese website True: Yes New iPhone 6 details possibly revealed! (BGR) True: No The thickness reported here was way off, and the iPhone 6 doesn't look a whole lot like the 5s. Apple hits snags in 'iWatch' production, loses director of iPod software to Nest (AppleInsider) Source: The Information True: No idea This could be the first ever image of the iPhone 6 frame (BGR) Source: Parts leak True: No The iPhone 6 looks nothing like this thing. iPhone 6 Rear Camera to Retain 8-Megapixel Sensor, Offer Improved Image Stabilization? (MacRumors) Source: Some analyst True: Yes Next-gen iPhone may boast 5" 'full HD' display, flexible AMOLED for 'iWatch' (AppleInsider) Source: Research firm True: 50/50 The parts of this rumor that were correct were the display sizes for the iWatch (and perhaps its resolution) and the display resolution for the 5.5-inch iPhone 6. Everything else was way off. Korean rumor suggests iWatch has 1.5-inch curved OLED, set for summer launch (9to5 Mac) Source: Korean website True: No Absolutely nothing about this report was correct. Apple's iPhone 6 will reportedly surprise us all and launch this summer (BGR) Source: Some analyst True: No Absolutely nothing about this report was correct. Analyst: Apple's 'iPhone 6' design 'locked down' with 4.8" display, 802.11ac Wi-Fi (AppleInsider) Source: Some analyst True: 50/50 He got the display size wrong, but everything else was a pretty good guess. Apple iPhones to Come Out With Bigger Screens (Wall Street Journal) Source: "People familiar with the matter" True: Yes Video: iPhone 6 parts purportedly shown in new leak (BGR) Source: Parts leak True: No This was proven to be an iPhone 4s part. Foxconn completes assembly testing for sapphire-covered iPhone - report (AppleInsider) Source: Taiwanese website True: No The iPhone 6 doesn't have a sapphire display coating. Apple Pushes Deeper Into Mobile Payments (Wall Street Journal) Source: "People familiar with the matter" True: Yes The iPhone 6 may have a different kind of wireless charging (BGR) Source: Some analyst True: No Not even remotely close. January totals: 15 rumors, 5 correct February iWatch + iOS 8: Apple sets out to redefine mobile health, fitness tracking (9to5 Mac) Source: Apple employee leak True: Yes This report was mostly true, except for the name of the app... which, of course, Apple changed because of the leak. *eyeroll* IPHONE 6 LEAK: Almost every last detail about the iPhone 6 possibly revealed in new report (BGR) Source: Some analyst True: No Aside from the screen sizes, which had already been reported elsewhere, none of this is accurate. iPhone 6 Rumored to Include 10+-Megapixel Camera with f/1.8 Aperture and Improved Filter (MacRumors) Source: Chinese website True: No None of this turned out to be accurate. Apple rumored to use sapphire screen for 'iWatch,' but not next-gen iPhone (AppleInsider) Source: Chinese websites True: Yes iPhone 6 Said to Adopt 'Bezel-Free' Display (MacRumors) Source: Korean website True: No Next iPhone reportedly sports a larger screen and sapphire crystal display (9to5 Mac) Source: Chinese website True: No No points awarded for the display size, which had already been reported elsewhere, especially since the reported pixel density was way off. And, of course, the display isn't sapphire. Also, the iPhone 5c wasn't removed from the lineup, and the 5s isn't made from "cheaper materials." Fail. Apple Likely to Slim Down iPhone and iPad with Thinner and Lighter Backlights (MacRumors) Source: Research firm True: 50/50 The report on the tech itself was correct, but the reported June launch date for the iPhone 6 was way off. Alleged iPhone 6 Prototype Depicted in New Images (MacRumors) Source: Fake True: No Apple's 'iWatch' rumored to use optoelectronics to monitor heart rate, blood oxygen levels (AppleInsider) Source: Some analyst True: 50/50 Apple is using an optically-bases solution to measure heart rate, but full-fledged oximetry doesn't seem to be a feature. TPK to Reportedly Supply Flexible AMOLED Panels For Apple's iWatch (MacRumors) Source: Digitimes True: No Nothing about this report is true. Rumor: Apple working on 4.7", 5.6" iPhones for release in Q3 2014 (AppleInsider) Source: Taiwanese website True: No Virtually everything about this "report" was way off the mark. Apple bought '3-year supply' of 4.5" sapphire displays, says Canonical CEO (AppleInsider) Source: Some CEO True: No February totals: 12 rumors, 3 correct March Apple sapphire supplier's projected 2H14 revenues likely indicate fall iPhone launch (9to5 Mac) Source: Reading way too much into things True: No Although the iPhone 6 did indeed launch in the fall, none of the tea-leaf reading over sapphire displays turned out to be true or have anything to do with the iPhone. New report says iPhone 6 will launch in July (BGR) Source: Some analyst True: No Off by two months. Leak: iPhone 6 component photo may reveal major design overhaul (BGR) Source: Fake True: No iPhone 6 camera will be even better without entering the megapixel war (BGR) Source: Chinese website True: 50/50 They were right about the megapixel rating, but off on all other specs. Rumor: Design of Apple's new big-screen iPhone will be cross between iPhone 5c & 7th-gen iPod nano (AppleInsider) Source: Japanese website True: No Not even close. This is Healthbook, Apple's major first step into health & fitness tracking (9to5 Mac) Source: Apple employee leak True: Mostly The user interface is significantly different, as is the name. All "because" of this leak. HUUUGE IPHONE 6 LEAK -- Insider claims to reveal iPhone 6 specs (BGR) Source: Some guy on Twitter True: No Absolutely none of these specs are correct. YET ANOTHER iPhone 6 leak seemingly reveals more details on Apple's next iPhone (BGR) Source: Some analyst True: 1/3 The iPhone 6 has a barometer, but none of the other sensors mentioned. Significantly improved camera again tipped for the iPhone 6 (BGR) Source: Some CFO. True: Probably There's no way of knowing whether the substance of this report is truly accurate until iFixit tears down the iPhone 6 Plus, but the fact remains the device does indeed have optical image stabilsation as suggested. Apple expected to sit out on megapixel horserace with 2014 iPhones (AppleInsider) Source: "People familiar with the matter" True: Yes New leak may finally reveal Apple's iPhone 6 design (BGR) Source: Mockup True: No The design shown closely resembles the front and back of the iPhone 6, but the sides are totally wrong. Apple is working on two versions of the iPhone 6... but only one might launch this fall (BGR) Source: Some analyst True: No Although this guy was correct in his assertion that Apple would launch two phones, nothing else was correct. iPhone 6 Reportedly Launching 'As Early As September' in 4.7- and 5.5-Inch Sizes (MacRumors) Source: Japanese website True: Yes New leak may give us our first look at the iPhone 6′s dimensions (BGR) Source: Fake True: No March totals: 14 rumors, 4 5/6 correct April IPHONE 6 LEAK: This could be our first look at the completely redesigned iPhone 6 (BGR) Source: Mockup based on a leaked blueprint True: Yes The mockup itself was a bit off, as was the mention of a 5.7-inch iPhone, but the leaked blueprint turned out to be the first accurate look at the 4.7-inch iPhone 6. Purported iPhone 6 pictures show protruding camera, rounded edges (9to5 Mac) Source: Foolhardy Foxconn employee True: Yes Reuters: Production of 'iPhone 6' screens to begin in May, 5.5" model delayed (AppleInsider) Source: Supply chain sources True: Probably The "delay" mentioned was a production delay, not a release delay. This will probably turn out to be correct. Barclays: Apple's 'iWatch' could include UV light exposure sensor (AppleInsider) Source: Some analyst True: No Apple Reportedly Targeting Q3 2014 Launch for iWatch (MacRumors) Source: Digitimes True: No Apple Expected to Unveil iWatch in September as Suppliers Deliver Circuit Board Samples (MacRumors) Source: Digitimes True: No Although the unveiling date was correct, the details were not: Digitimes expected the device to have a "flexible circuit board." Mass Production of 4.7-Inch iPhone 6 Set for July, 5.5-Inch Version Beginning in September (MacRumors) Source: Japanese website True: No This report was one of many incorrectly claiming the 4.7-inch and 5.5-inch iPhones would be announced at different times. LEAK: Does this leaked image show iOS 8 on the iPhone 6? (BGR) Source: Fake True: No Apple's 2014 Product Roadmap: New iWatch, iPhones, iPads, Apple TV, and MacBooks Coming (MacRumors) Source: "Accurate" analyst Ming-Chi Kuo True: 50/50 This darling of the rumor blogs got many details right, but he also got many wrong: "The iWatch will ship during the end of the third quarter" "flexible AMOLED display" "both models of iPhone 6 will have optical image stablization" "only the 64 GB 5.5-inch version will use sapphire displays" Kuo's product roadmap also shows the 5.5-inch iPhone launching significantly later than the 4.7-inch version. iPhone 6 Could See Sleep/Wake Button Move, 401 ppi in 5.5" Model, Sapphire Display in High-End Phones (MacRumors) Source: "Accurate" analyst Ming-Chi Kuo True: 50/50 "In line with previous rumors, Kuo believes the new 4.7-inch model will come with a 1334x750 Retina display at 326 pixels per inch, while the 5.5" will see a 1920x1080 screen at 401 ppi" Correct, but no points awarded for parroting what everyone else was saying. "The iPhone 6 will include a new A8 processor, 1GB of RAM, Touch ID, a narrower bezel by 10 to 20 percent, and the phone to be thinned to 6.5-7.0mm (the current iPhone 5 is 7.6mm thick). He also expects Apple to finally include NFC chips in its smart phones." All correct, except for the RAM, which is still unknown. However, it's not exactly rocket science to say the A8 will follow the A7, and saying a next-gen Apple product will be thinner than the previous gen is like saying a next-gen Mac will be faster than the one before it. It's such a safe bet it's not even funny. As for NFC, that was a rumor absolutely every single year since the 4s. "The 5.5" phone won't be operable with one hand" Wrong. "He expects the 5.5" iPhone 6 to debut later in the holiday quarter" Wrong. "The 5.5" iPhone will also see a significantly larger battery -- 50% to 70% more watt-hours than the iPhone 5s -- to power the larger screen, and also because there will be more real estate inside the case." Correct, but this is another duh-worthy prediction. "Kuo says only high-end iPhones -- like the 64GB 5.5" iPhone 6 -- may include a sapphire screen cover due to supply constraints" Wrong. "He expects the iPhone's rear camera to remain at 8 megapixels and f2.2 aperture, but it will see an adoption of optical image stabilization technologies to improve image quality without increasing pixel number, a frequent goal of Apple's in the past" Correct-ish. Only the iPhone 6 Plus got OIS. "Finally, Kuo expects production of the iPhone 4s and 4 to be ended, with the iPhone 5s and 5c filling as the more inexpensive options in Apple's smartphone lineup." Correct, but another duh-worthy prediction. iWatch cost could be subsidized by health insurers, analyst suggests (9to5 Mac) Source: Some analyst True: No Redesigned iPhone 6 seemingly revealed by third-party case maker (BGR) Source: Case maker True: Yes Latest unverified photos from Weibo claim to show iPhone 6 schematics, production tools (9to5 Mac) Source: Foolhardy Foxconn employee True: Probably New report says iWatch will be significantly cheaper than expected (BGR) Source: Some analyst True: No Apple reportedly negotiating with carriers for $100 price increase on iPhone 6 (MacRumors) Source: Some analyst True: No New Photo of Alleged iPhone 6 Manufacturing Mold Hints at 4.7-Inch Display (MacRumors) Source: Foolhardy Foxconn employee True: Probably Rumor: First photo of supposed 'iPhone 6' front panel surfaces (AppleInsider) Source: Parts leak True: Probably Alleged iPhone 6 Batteries Photographed in Production Tray (MacRumors) Source: Foolhardy Foxconn employee True: Probably Closer look at alleged 'iPhone 6' front panel suggests 5.1" screen with 16:9 ratio (AppleInsider) Source: CSI Fail True: No Another Alleged iPhone 6 Case Surfaces with Cutouts for Moved Power Button, New Volume Controls (MacRumors) Source: Case maker True: Yes How Apple Could Make the Move to 4.7" iPhone Displays (MacRumors) Source: Reading way too much into things True: 50/50 The homescreen analysis is correct, but the bit about "unoptimized" apps being run in a letterbox is wrong. Apple trademark update suggests company may enter jewelry business, hinting at rumored 'iWatch' (AppleInsider) Source: Trademark application True: Yes (ish) This turned out to be either a red herring or a clever hedge against some unscrupulous rival (coughSamsungcough) claiming the name iWatch. Taiwanese media claims 5.5inch iPhone 6 to be very thin, special battery components causing delays (9to5 Mac) Source: Taiwanese website True: 50/50 The 5.5-inch iPhone 6 has probably seen production delays, but not to the extent suggested in this report. Apple and Nike reportedly developing a 'smart band' with gesture controls (BGR) Source: Unnamed True: No Apple's watch is clearly 100% Apple's watch. Rumor: Apple's 'iPhone 6' may sport curved edges, display glass (AppleInsider) Source: Japanese website True: Yes iPhone 6 renders supposedly meant for accessory manufacturers leak, claim 6mm thinness (9to5 Mac) Source: Mockup True: 50/50 The overall design and most dimensions are correct, but the thickness is off by almost a full millimeter. iPhone 6 Camera May Feature Electronic Image Stabilization, Bigger Pixel Size (MacRumors) Source: Some analyst True: 25% The 4.7-inch iPhone 6 does use electronic image stabilization. Everything else in this report is wrong. iWatch Reportedly Entering Production in Small Quantities Ahead of Fall 2014 Launch (MacRumors) Source: Chinese website True: No Photos show highly suspect 'iPhone 6' dummy with ultra-slim design, rounded edges (AppleInsider) Source: Mockup True: Yes Features that AppleInsider called "suspect" turned out to be correct. April totals: 29 rumors, 14 3/4 true May iPhone 6 Physical Mockup Allegedly Based on Real Machine Schematics Surfaces (MacRumors) Source: Mockup True: Mostly Again, the thickness was off by 0.9 millimeters, but otherwise this was about right. 4.7″ iPhone 6 could be available in August, 5.5″ model in September (9to5 Mac) Source: Taiwanese website True: No Sketchy supplier renders of 4.7-inch iPhone 6 surface online (9to5 Mac) Source: Chinese website True: Yes Apple Reportedly Integrating NFC Technology into iPhone 6 (MacRumors) Source: "People familiar with the matter" True: Yes Rumor: Apple already restricting retail employee time off in Sept., its usual iPhone launch window (AppleInsider) Source: Apple retail employees in Germany True: Yes iPhone 6 with larger, sharper 1704 x 960 resolution screen in testing (9to5 Mac) Source: Reading way too much into things True: No The only accurate part of this report is the bit on 3x mode, which is only featured in the iPhone 6 plus. 9to5 struck out badly on everything else. Morgan Stanley predicts Apple will incorporate NFC into future iPhone for mobile payments (AppleInsider) Source: Some analyst True: Yes Slab of metal that vaguely resembles 'iPhone 6' leaks spotted in Romania (AppleInsider) Source: Probably the Romanian mafia True: Who knows? Latest Weibo leak shows supposed 4.7-inch iPhone screen backlight part (9to5 Mac) Source: Chinese website True: Impossible to tell iWATCH LEAK: New report reveals crucial design details for Apple's iWatch (BGR) Source: Some analyst True: No Apple's iWatch will pack the most important tech most smartwatches are missing (BGR) Source: Chinese website True: Yes Alleged iPhone 6 Back Cover Shown Off in New Photo (MacRumors) Source: Parts leak True: Yes Apple discussing iPhone payments service with high-profile retail brands (9to5 Mac) Source: Apple employee leak True: Mostly, except for this bit: "The sources briefed on Apple's talks with retailers said that the discussions are exploratory and it does not appear that such an Apple payments service is in the cards to launch in the near future." May totals: 13 rumors, 8 correct June Accessory Makers Ramping Up for 5.5-Inch iPhone 6, Sparking Speculation of September Launch (MacRumors) Source: Some analyst True: Yes New source: iPhone 6 will feature NFC, wireless charging, better 4G antenna, & a much bigger screen (VentureBeat) Source: "People familiar with the matter" True: 75% - wireless charging was a no-show feature. GET READY... New leak supposedly shows the actual, completely redesigned iPhone 6! (BGR) Source: Parts leaks True: Yes 5.5-Inch iPhone 6 May Cost an Extra $100, but Consumers Willing to Pay (MacRumors) Source: Some analyst True: Yes Apple reportedly has enough sapphire for massive iPhone 6 and iWatch launches (BGR) Source: "Supply chain checks" True: No Photos of 4.7-Inch and 5.5-Inch iPhone 6 Model (MacRumors) Source: Mockups True: Yes iPhone 6 Sapphire Display Limited to 5.5" Model as LG Struggles with iWatch Display Power Draw? (MacRumors) Source: Taiwanese website True: No iPhone 6 likely to sport barometer/air pressure sensors to measure altitude, weather (9to5 Mac) Source: Deep dive into iOS 8 code True: Yes 2.5-Inch iWatch with Wireless Charging and Pulse Sensor to Enter Mass Production in July (MacRumors) Source: "People familiar with the matter" True: 50/50 The size and launch date were way off. The other details were correct. Apple now has two sapphire plants for the upcoming iPhone 6 (BGR) Source: Some analyst True: No Whether Apple has two plants or not, the fact remains the iPhone 6 doesn't have a sapphire face. WSJ: Apple planning multiple iWatch models with as many as 10 health-related sensors (Wall Street Journal) Source: "People familiar with the matter" True: 50/50 Ten is probably an overly generous number for the sensors involved in the Apple Watch. Hit the road, jack: Why Apple may say goodbye to the headphone plug (Macworld) Source: Reading way too much into things True: No Here are the first photos of the 5.5-inch iPhone 6′s alleged display part (9to5 Mac) Source: Some guy on Twitter True: Too vague to tell Bloomberg: Two iPhone 6 models will go into mass production in July, will go on sale at the same time (9to5 Mac) Source: "People familiar with the matter" True: Yes KGI: 4.7″ iPhone's camera may not support optical image stabilization, 5.5″ likely will (9to5 Mac) Source: Some analyst True: Yes iPhone 6 Said to Launch on Friday, September 19 in 32 GB and 64 GB Variants (MacRumors) Source: Chinese website True: 50/50 The launch date is right, but there is no 32 GB iPhone 6. Only the 5.5-Inch iPhone 6 May Offer 128GB Models (MacRumors) Source: Chinese website True: No HUGE IPHONE 6 LEAK: Actual iPhone 6 housing revealed on video for the first time! (BGR) Source: Parts leak True: Yes For Apple fans dreaming of sapphire iPhones, Liquidmetal could be a cautionary tale (AppleInsider) Source: Reading way too much into things True: Yes June totals: 17 rumors, 9 1/2 correct July iPhone 6 mockups are a 'rough approximation' according to report, claims antenna design will differ signifcantly (9to5 Mac) Source: Japanese website True: 50/50 - the report claimed the visible antenna bands weren't a final part of the design. Turns out they were. Report: iPhone 6 will use new display tech for thinner design, could cause yield issues (9to5 Mac) Source: Chinese website True: Yes First comparison photos of black and white 4.7-inch iPhone 6 screen glass [Gallery] (9to5 Mac) Source: Parts leak True: Yes HERE WE GO... New leak shows internal iPhone 6 parts for the first time! (BGR) Source: Parts leak (?) True: Who knows? They're ribbon cables. Rumor: Apple's 'iPhone 6' to launch on Sept. 25, larger 5.5" version dubbed 'iPhone Air' (AppleInsider) Source: Chinese website True: No New Video Shows Closer Look at Purported 4.7-Inch iPhone 6 Front Panel (MacRumors) Source: Parts leak True: Yes Apple's iWatch again said to launch in October (BGR) Source: Chinese website True: No iPhone 6 May See Only Modest Battery Capacity Boost as Apple Pursues Ultra-Slim Designs (MacRumors) Source: Chinese website True: It depends on whether you classify the improvements in the iPhone 6's battery life as "modest" or not. I'll give this one a passing grade, because why not. Sapphire 4.7″ iPhone 6 display put through its paces with knife and keys in new scratch test video (9to5 Mac) Source: Parts leak True: 50/50. This is an iPhone 6 display all right, but it's not made of sapphire. IPHONE 6 LEAK: New iPhone 6 parts leak reaffirms huge redesign (BGR) Source: Parts leak (?) True: Who knows? Ribbon cables, again. 4.7-Inch iPhone 6 Rear Shell Shown in High-Quality Photos and Video (MacRumors) Source: Parts leak True: Yes The sketchy iPhone 6 rumors keep coming – haptic feedback & 68M orders (9to5 Mac) Source: Chinese website True: No Claimed iPhone 6 Front Frame with LCD Shielding and Home Button Bracket Shown in New Photo (MacRumors) Source: Parts leak True: No - this part was for the Amazon Fire Phone according to iFixit. Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo: Apple "iWatch" mass production pushed back to November (AppleInsider) Source: "Accurate" analyst Ming-Chi Kuo True: No. The Apple Watch isn't launching at all until next year, not in late 2014 as Kuo claimed. Expert Believes Alleged iPhone 6 Sapphire Front Panel Could Be 'Legitimate' (MacRumors) Source: Some college professor True: No. The iPhone 6 doesn't have a sapphire display cover. Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo: Apple's 5.5-inch 'iPhone 6' faces production issues, launch may be pushed to 2015 (AppleInsider) Source: "Accurate" analyst Ming-Chi Kuo True: No. Absolutely nothing in thie report was correct. Chinese report claims iWatch to come in three models, sapphire and non-sapphire varieties (9to5 Mac) Source: Chinese website True: 1/3 There are sapphire and non-sapphire versions, and there are three models of Apple Watch. Everything else about this report, including the reported sizes, is wrong. New Photos of Purported iPhone 6 Battery Show 1,810 mAh Capacity (MacRumors) Source: Parts leak True: Probably. Will have to wait for the iFixit teardown to be sure. iPhone 6 Said to Feature Sony's 13-Megapixel Exmor IMX220 Camera Sensor (MacRumors) Source: Chinese website True: No Analysts believe sapphire display covers will be limited to high-end iPhone 6 models only (9to5 Mac) Source: Some analysts True: No. No iPhone 6 models have sapphire displays. Intriguing 5.5-inch iPhone 6 battery design shown in new leak (BGR) Source: Parts leak True: No Photos purport to show 'iPhone 6' Lightning port, microphone flex cable (AppleInsider) Source: Parts leak (?) True: Who knows, because ribbon cables. Rumor: Rear shell for 4.7" 'iPhone 6' shown with inlaid Apple logo in new photos (AppleInsider) Source: Parts leak True: Yes Apple 'tentatively' plans mid-September iPhone event as iOS 8 nears completion (9to5 Mac) Source: Apple employee leak True: 50/50 I'm going to be pendantic and say September 9 doesn't qualify as "mid-September." Also, this rumor totally missed out on the fact that the Apple Watch was launching at this event. Apple reportedly discussing mobile wallet plans with credit card companies, may launch with iPhone 6 (9to5 Mac) Source: "People familiar with the matter" True: Yes Apple Launching 5.5-Inch iPhone 6 After 4.7-Inch Version to Avoid Competition Between Two Models (MacRumors) Source: Digitimes True: No. Not even close. Possible 5.5-inch iPhone 6 Volume/Power Flex Cable and SIM Card Tray Shown in New Images (MacRumors) Source: Parts leak (?) True: Who knows. Ribbon cables. Yeeeeet again. Bare iPhone 6 Logic Board Surfaces, Claimed to Support NFC and 802.11ac Wi-Fi (MacRumors) Source: Parts leak True: Yes Purported 5.5-in. iPhone logic board surfaces alongside 'iPhone 6' part in new photos (AppleInsider) Source: Parts leak True: Yes An iPhone 6 case we can believe in (TUAW) Source: Case maker True: Yes Rumor: 'iWatch' production hits snags, will not begin until Q4 2014 (AppleInsider) Source: Apple supplier profit forecast True: Unknown Don't hold your breath for an iPhone 6 with sapphire glass (BGR) Source: Industrial analysis firm True: Yes iPhone 6 Said to Launch on Tuesday, October 14, Part of 'Incredibly Busy' Month for Apple (MacRumors) Source: Apple Retail employee (allegedly) True: No July totals: 33 rumors, 13 5/6 true (not counting BS ribbon cable "leaks") August Apple likely to ship only 3 million 'iWatch' units this year, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says (AppleInsider) Source: "Accurate" analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. True: No. Apple will ship zero watches this year. Analyst: Apple could equip 5.5" 'iPhone 6' with more powerful processor than 4.7" model (AppleInsider) Source: Some analyst. True: No BAD NEWS, iPHONE FANS: Now we know why the iPhone 6's release date might get pushed back to October (BGR) Source: "Accurate" analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. True: BAD NEWS, MING-CHI KUO FANS: No. Apple to Hold iPhone Event on Sept. 9 (re/code) Source: "People familiar with the matter" True: Yes Report Claims 4.7-Inch iPhone 6 Will Feature 2,100 mAh Battery (MacRumors) Source: Some analyst. True: Probably not. Will have to wait for an iFixit teardown to be sure. Apple's iPhone 6 line will sport faster Wi-Fi, improved fingerprint reader, A8 chip confirmed (VentureBeat) Source: "People familiar with the matter" True: Yes New images provide clearest look yet at iPhone 6 front panel (9to5 Mac) Source: Parts leak True: Yes Plethora of alleged 'iPhone 6' parts show Apple logo, cables & camera ring (AppleInsider) Source: Parts leak True: Yes Round 'True Tone' Flash for iPhone 6 Revealed in Latest Part Leak (MacRumors) Source: Parts leak True: Yes This probably isn't the iPhone 6 retail box you were looking for (BGR) Source: Fake True: No iPhone 6 Reportedly Entering Final Quality Control Stage Ahead of Mass Production (MacRumors) Source: Chinese website True: Probably PROOF that Apple is launching two new bigger iPhones this fall (BGR) Source: Loose-lipped Thai government official True: Yes iPhone 6 Front Panel, Power Button, and Mute Switch Shown in High-Quality Photos (MacRumors) Source: Parts leak True: Yes Assembled iPhone 6 Logic Board Revealed in New Photo (MacRumors) Source: Parts leak True: Yes Higher-End 4.7 and 5.5-Inch iPhone 6 to Get Sapphire Displays, Higher Price Tags (MacRumors) Source: Wall Street Journal True: No Photos Claiming to Be of New Lightning Cable with Reversible USB Connector Surface (MacRumors) Source: Chinese website True: No NEW iPHONE 6 LEAK shows how Apple could fix one of the worst things about phablets (BGR) Source: Reading way too much into things True: No The iPhone's sapphire future comes into focus (Macworld) Source: Reading way too much into things True: No Apparent Photo of 5.5-Inch iPhone 6 Battery Reveals 2,915 mAh Capacity (MacRumors) Source: Parts leak True: Probably Another purported 'iPhone 6' leak suggests Apple's 4.7" model will have larger 1810mAh battery (AppleInsider) Source: Foolhardy Foxconn employee True: Probably Rumor: Schematic suggests NFC chip in 'iPhone 6,' RAM remains unknown [u] (AppleInsider) Source: Chinese website True: Yes Apple unlikely to sell sapphire iPhones this year, is setting the stage for future models - JP Morgan (AppleInsider) Source: Some analyst True: Yes iPhone 6 Said to Feature Faster Qualcomm MDM9625 LTE Modem with LTE-Advanced Support (MacRumors) Source: Parts leak True: Yes Apple's iWatch May Not Launch Until 2015 (MacRumors) Source: "Accurate" analyst Ming-Chi Kuo True: Yes. Look at that, he finally got one right. 4.7-Inch iPhone 6 Screen Put Under Microscope as New 1472 x 828 Resolution Emerges (MacRumors) Source: Reading way too much into things True: No. Both of the purported resolutions cited in this report were wrong. Alleged Schematic Shows Protruding Camera Ring on 4.7-Inch iPhone 6 (MacRumors) Source: Taiwanese website True: Yes New photos claim to show 5.5-inch 'iPhone 6L' shell compared to smaller model (9to5 Mac) Source: Parts leak True: Yes 128 GB iPhone 6? Leaked schematics suggest it may happen (9to5 Mac) Source: Chinese website True: Yes iPhone 6 Information Leak Sourced from Foxconn Details Dimensions of 4.7-Inch and 5.5-Inch Versions (MacRumors) Source: Some foolhardy Foxconn employee True: Yes More Supply Chain Claims of Likely Early 2015 Launch for iWatch (MacRumors) Source: Taiwanese website True: Yes Conjecture Regarding Larger iPhone Displays (Daring Fireball) Source: Reading way too much into things True: 50/50 Gruber nailed the 4.7-inch iPhone 6's resolution, but not the 5.5-inch. Next-generation M7 coprocessor, codenamed 'Phosphorus', reportedly shown in iPhone schematics (U: Likely expected barometer/air pressure sensor) (9to5 Mac) Source: Chinese website True: Yes HUGE IPHONE 6 LEAK: Here's another major iPhone 6 change you didn't see coming (BGR) Source: Parts leak (heh) True: Yes More Evidence of NFC Support for Both iPhone 6 Models (MacRumors) Source: Parts leak True: Yes Apple Plans to Announce Wearable in September (re/code) Source: "People familiar with the matter" True: Yes August totals: 35, 24 1/2 correct September Our Sources Say the Next iPhone Will Include NFC Mobile Payments (WIRED) Source: "People familiar with the matter" True: Yes Analyst & GTAT investor claims all 5.5-inch iPhone 6 models get sapphire, some 4.7-inch models (9to5 Mac) Source: Some analyst True: No The iPhone 6 you're waiting for might not be unveiled on September 9th (BGR) Source: Chinese website True: No Apple Wearable Won't Ship Until Next Year (re/code) Source: "People familiar with the matter" True: Yes New pictures show off alleged iPhone 6 logic board, A8, and NFC chip (9to5 Mac) Source: Parts leak True: Yes Support for 3x image assets found in latest iOS 8 beta ahead of larger display iPhone 6 (9to5 Mac) Source: Deep dive into iOS 8 True: Yes 4.7-Inch iPhone 6 Built From Parts Supports Theory of 1334 x 750 Display (MacRumors) Source: Parts leak/reading way too much into things True: Yes Apple execs discuss $400 price point for wearable with the media, what do you think? (9to5 Mac) Source: "People familiar with the matter" True: No. The Apple Watch starts at $349. Apple has reached agreements w/ American Express & MasterCard to work on iPhone payments system (9to5 Mac) Source: "People familiar with the matter" True: Yes Analyst says not to expect reversible USB Lightning connector to ship with iPhone 6 (9to5 Mac) Source: "Accurate" analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. True: Yes. I'll give this one to him even though he simply told us something we all knew anyway. iWatch Said to Be at 'Engineering Verification Test' Stage, Components Now in Production (MacRumors) Source: Digitimes True: No. Apple reportedly discussing mobile payment partnership with Nordstrom (9to5 Mac) Source: "People familiar with the matter" True: Yes A lot of speculation arises around U2's involvement in iPhone 6 launch (9to5 Mac) Source: Bono, probably. True: Mostly. KGI on iWatch: 8 GB storage, 512 MB RAM, 1.3 and 1.5 inch screen, gold option (9to5 Mac) Source: "Accurate" analyst Ming-Chi Kuo. True: Apple didn't announce any detailed tech specs for its watch, so these are a wash. All of the other details are correct or close enough. KGI report claims both iPhone 6 models to offer 128GB storage; iPad Air 2 launch on same day (9to5 Mac) Source: "Accurate" analyst Ming Chi Kuo True: 1/5 Correct: "both 4.7- and 5.5-inch models of the iPhone 6 will be launched next week and will both offer 128GB storage option" Incorrect: "iPad Air 2 will be announced on the same day as the iPhone 6 rather than in a separate event in October" "the power button – moved to the side – could be a programmable multi-function key, perhaps launching a specific app in response to a long or short press" "The camera lens will, he predicts, lose its sapphire coating after failing drop tests" "the 5.5-inch model will go on sale at a later date" iWatch With Curved OLED Display to Include NFC for Mobile Payments (MacRumors) Source: Wall Street Journal True: 50/50. No mention was made of OLED technology in the display. U2 says reports of Apple tie-up for 'iPhone 6' are untrue (AppleInsider) Source: A liar True: No NYT: iWatch to feature flexible display panel, wireless charging, iPhone 6 to have 'one handed mode' (9to5 Mac) Source: "People familiar with the matter" True: 1/3. The Apple Watch doesn't have a flexible display. Apple reportedly negotiated transaction fee discounts w/ major banks ahead of mobile payment system (9to5 Mac) Source: "People familiar with the matter" True: Probably Rear Camera of 5.5-Inch iPhone 6 With Optical Stabilization and Other Parts Shown in New Photos (MacRumors) Source: Parts leak True: Yes 5.5-inch iPhone 6 may run landscape apps with more productive iPad-like interface (9to5 Mac) Source: Deep dive into iOS 8 True: Yes September totals: 21 rumors, 13 correct.
