Rumor Roundup
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Rumor Roundup: Bigger isn't necessarily better
There's not much happening with Apple rumors at the moment; only two worth mentioning came out in the past few days. iPhone 6 Reportedly Launching 'As Early As September' in 4.7- and 5.5-Inch Sizes (MacRumors) Writers for Japanese business newspaper Nikkei apparently read the same rumors as everyone else, because they posted the same tired, unverifiable gossip about iPhones coming out in various larger sizes. Has anyone ever come out with a legitimate use case for a larger-screened iPhone besides "Samsung did it, therefore Apple has to do it?" Bumping up the screen size from 3.5 to 4 inches and shifting the screen's aspect ratio from 3:2 to 16:9 for the iPhone 5 made sense. It definitely made the experience of viewing videos better, and the extra screen real estate made browsing the web much easier (at least in portrait mode). What is a 4.7-inch or 5.5-inch iPhone going to give us that we don't already have? You might think "a bigger battery" right off, but this is somewhat analogous to the fundamental problem facing rocket engineers. For them it's a problem of needing to burn extra fuel for every extra litre of fuel a rocket carries; in the iPhone's case, a larger device will have a bigger display, which will require more power, which will offset any benefit conferred by a larger battery. An increased screen resolution only makes sense if Apple follows the same model it did when it introduced the Retina display with the iPhone 4. There, a simple doubling of pixel count in vertical and horizontal dimensions made it (relatively) easy for developers to update their apps and take advantage of the extra resolution. The iPhone 5 proved to be moderately more problematic, as there were extra pixels on either side of existing apps that needed to be filled. If Apple introduces another display resolution (say, 1920 x 1080) in the next-gen iPhone, it'll only be compounding an existing problem. Apple likes to poke fun at Android and the fragmentation issues that platform suffers due to having to support a wide variety of devices and display sizes, so the company won't be doing itself any favors if it goes down that same road. On the other hand, Mac software developers are able to handle a wide variety of display dimensions and resolutions without much trouble, so the issue of doing the same work for the iPhone may ultimately prove to be overstated. We'll see. New leak may give us our first look at the iPhone 6′s dimensions (BGR) From the article: "this schematic may very well just be a design that Apple has been playing around with and nothing more." It's also likely a fake, which is something BGR forgot to address.
Rumor Roundup: 'Multiple sources saying pretty much the same thing'
Apple to Move Production of iPhone Batteries to Automated Lines (MacRumors) "[...] according to a report from DigiTimes." BZZZZT! Next! New leak may finally reveal Apple's iPhone 6 design (BGR) From the article: "A user on 9to5Mac's discussion forums points us to images of a purported case mold for Apple's next-generation iPhone. The images were posted on a Japanese case maker's blog, and while there is obviously no way to authenticate the case mold pictured, it does at least align with a number of early rumors." Other than DigiTimes, I'm having a hard time thinking of a less reliable source than this. What is with this sudden rush of "some guy on a forum said some BS, so let's take it as fact" rumor posts? Are these guys so deprived of genuine news sources that they're honestly getting this desperate? (That was a rhetorical question, because of course they are.) Apple is working on two versions of the iPhone 6... but only one might launch this fall (BGR) Speaking of utterly worthless sources, some know-nothing analyst threw out some completely evidence-free speculation about the next-gen iPhone, and BGR dutifully reblogged it without a hint of incredulity. Dear rumor blogs (because BGR wasn't the only one guilty of spreading this digital manure): your punishment is to write "Analysts have no clue what they're talking about when they talk about Apple" 1000 times on the chalkboard. Then have it tattooed on the foreheads of all of your editors. When is Apple going to release a Retina MacBook Air? More signs point to 'soon' (9to5 Mac) From the article: "Following a forum post from a Chinese website, Digitimes is reporting that Apple will indeed ship a brand new MacBook Air with Retina display in the second half of this year." Well, there you have it. The most news-free sentence ever written about Apple. "The Digitimes article offers no specifics on what the new MacBook Air will feature, aside from the Retina display." A Digitimes article that fails to mention any specifics? I am shocked, SHOCKED that such a thing could ever happen. "9to5Mac previously covered a KGI report from October that predicted similar specifications - KGI said a 12-inch Retina MacBook Air was in the works. Like Digitimes, KGI stated a mid-to-late 2014 release window." Yes, and as we all know, KGI analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has never, ever been wrong when he's written about Apple. Where "never, ever" means "more than half the time." "With multiple sources saying pretty much the same thing, all the signs indicate that a new Retina display Air is coming in the pipeline." Really? These are your sources: An analyst whose accuracy record is no better than random chance An Asian tech publication who published exactly one correct prediction in all of 2013 Some random forum post on a Chinese website Something tells me the Pulitzer Committee is not going to be emailing you any time soon.
Rumor Roundup: "Flop"
Here's a riddle: when is a flop not a flop? Easy: when it sells a metric load of units and makes tons of money. Don't try telling that to some people, though. Their skulls are far too thick, and the contents of those skulls... the less said about that, the better. Apple expected to sit out on megapixel horserace with 2014 iPhones (AppleInsider) "People familiar with the matter" claim Apple won't be bumping up the megapixel rating on the built-in camera for the next-gen iPhone. Instead, Apple will concentrate on upgrading other components. At least this source is (theoretically) better than Asian tech publications, "sources from the supply chain," or some analyst. And the claim makes sense; Apple has stuck with an 8-megapixel rear camera for the past three generations of iPhones, and in blind tests they're consistently rated among the best smartphone cameras on the market. Here's why Apple might never release an iWatch (BGR) Some people (other than me) are finally starting to talk some sense about the iWatch -- namely, that the concept doesn't make sense. At all. The stupidest thing anyone has said about Apple in a long time (BGR) BGR is definitely correct that Trip Chowdry's claim of Apple having "60 days left to either come up with something or disappear [...] if they don't come up with an iWatch," is quite probably the stupidest thing written about Apple in living memory. However, BGR pointing fingers at others for writing stupid things about Apple is also definitely a serious case of the pot calling the kettle black. Report: Apple considering iTunes Store for Android & on-demand streaming service (9to5 Mac) An on-demand streaming service makes sense, because that's where the industry seems to be heading in the long-term. Offering iTunes on Android isn't something I expect to see any time soon. It made sense for Apple to offer some iTunes ice water to those in Windows hell, because it helped Apple sell many more iPods and iPhones than it would have otherwise. Propping up sagging music sales by offering a music app on a direct hardware competitor makes far less sense. Rumor: 12-inch Retina MacBook/Air updates coming soon without fan or mechanical trackpad button (9to5 Mac) The "source" (heavy sarcasm quotes) is some random forum poster on a Chinese website. What, weren't there any analysts available to weigh in on Apple this week? I mean, any analysts other than Trip Chowdry? Apple in Talks with Comcast to Provide Streaming TV Service on Future Apple TV (MacRumors) Since this report comes from the Wall Street Journal, and since there is no Apple event scheduled for 48 hours or less from the time of this posting, I'm going to put this one in the "not bloody likely" bin. Apple's iPhone 5c 'failure flop' outsold Blackberry, Windows Phone and every Android flagship in Q4 (AppleInsider) This brilliant, in-depth post is a positively brutal takedown of the "iPhone 5c flop" meme that BGR has been pimping mercilessly since last September. Highly recommended. BGR spent most of 2012 and 2013 heavily investing in the "low-cost iPhone" rumors that were flying around. They seemed certain that Apple would debut a sub-$200 iPhone. They staked their (already shaky) reputation on it. When Apple dared to unveil the still-quite-premium-priced iPhone 5c instead, the nerd rage at BGR was almost palpable. I can't help but suspect that BGR's relentless attempts to paint the iPhone 5c as a "flop" are a reaction to Apple making them look like fools. If Apple had released a low-cost iPhone that aligned with BGR's speculation and had the same sales numbers as the iPhone 5c, would BGR have spent the intervening months scrambling to depict the device as a "flop"? There's no way to be certain, obviously, but I doubt it.
Rumor Roundup: ALL CAPS EMPHASIS
MAKE YOUR HEADLINES STAND OUT with words RANDOMLY capitalized in your HEADLINES. All of the MOST SUCCESSFUL BLOGS are doing it. YOU CAN TOO. This is Healthbook, Apple's major first step into health & fitness tracking (9to5 Mac) Buried deep in the bedrock of this very detailed piece: "However, it is possible that the application's launch could be pushed back to a future operating system version or cancelled entirely." Bet successfully hedged! Now if this functionality fails to debut, all the article's writer needs to do is point to this single sentence and act wounded if anyone dares to criticise. So cunning. Such strategy. Wow. Rumor: Apple to launch lower-capacity 8GB iPhone 5c this week (AppleInsider) This actually happened. Why anyone would want an 8 GB iPhone in 2014 is an as-yet unanswered question. HUUUGE IPHONE 6 LEAK -- Insider claims to reveal iPhone 6 specs (BGR) From the article: "'These specs could be the real thing,' [BGR's source said], without specifying his source or revealing other details about the handset." Or, alternatively, they could be a completely manufactured ploy to grab people's attention and generate pageviews to drive up website advertising revenue. I guess we'll find out which scenario is true later this year. YET ANOTHER iPhone 6 leak seemingly reveals more details on Apple's next iPhone (BGR) Some analyst in China said some stuff, and BGR is ALL OVER IT with its ALL CAPS EMPHASIS. This time, some guy claimed the next-gen iPhone will have atmospheric pressure, temperature and humidity sensors. If analysts in China are anything like they are in the States, this guy's source for these claims likely lives entirely within his own skull. Where his skull likely lives is not a subject suitable for a family publication like this one. Suffice it to say that the word "analyst" contains its own clue. Larger iPhone 6 May Cause Massive Spike in Upgrades, Lure Android Users (MacRumors) Speaking of analysts, another one came out of the woodwork and pulled some very thin numbers out of even thinner air to show that the iPhone 6 will mean GOOGLE IS DOOMED. Because the words "Apple" and "analyst" and "note to investors" and "iPhone 6" all appeared in the same story, the rumor blogs dutifully reblogged it all over the place without stopping to question for even a split second whether this actually constituted real news or not. In other words, business as usual. Significantly improved camera again tipped for the iPhone 6 (BGR) From the article: "It's not clear what components, if any, InvenSense will sell to Apple." That certainly undermines your extremely certain-sounding headline, BGR. In other words, business as usual. Again. Microsoft Office for iPad will be unveiled this month (The Verge) This is roughly the 100th time Office for iPad has been rumored to launch. I question how many people outside of the tech blogger community - in other words, normal human beings - will actually notice or care once it does. iPad users have been doing just fine without Office for over four years, which goes a long way toward proving how spectacularly Microsoft has ushered in its own impending irrelevancy. Lightning iPad 4 could make its return tomorrow alongside 8GB iPhone 5c (9to5 Mac) This actually happened, so it's six more weeks of winter. Where "winter" means "self-congratulatory patting of oneself on the back so hard one's teeth rattle." Rumor: Apple taps Samsung to take over iPad mini display manufacturing from Sharp, AU Optronics (AppleInsider) Whatever else you may say about Samsung, they do make kickass displays. HERE COMES THE IPHONE 6! Production plans leak from Apple partner Pegatron (BGR) If you're like me and were thinking "production plans = blueprints," then prepare to be disappointed. All this poorly-sourced article points to is rumored factory production dates for the next-gen handset. I didn't see any of the other rumor blogs snapping this one up, so congratulations to BGR on its scoop (of dog poo).
Rumor Roundup: No TV for you
Digitimes makes its "triumphant" return to the rumor scene this week and manages to make itself look even more ridiculous than usual. No, I didn't think that was possible either. Digitimes likely way off the mark with sapphire production estimates (9to5 Mac) What? Digitimes got something wrong? That's unpossible! From the article: "Digitimes' analysis just doesn't hold up to scrutiny no matter what way you look at it." I hope 9to5 Mac set up a macro shortcut to save themselves the effort of typing that every time anything from Digitimes is spewed forth onto the intertubes. No such luck for BGR, who swallowed this clickbait hook, line, and sinker. As, of course, they are wont to do. Speaking of which... Apple reportedly decides not to launch its 12.9-inch iPad Pro (BGR) Digitimes is now backtracking on a plethora of earlier claims that an "iPad Pro" would debut this year, which means one of two things: This product never existed in the first place or This product definitely will launch now in order to satisfy the "Digitimes is always wrong" rule Either way it shakes out, some rumormonger ends up looking stupid, which is fine by me. Steve Jobs Said that Apple Would Not Release a Television (MacRumors) Has anyone seen or heard from Gene "Where's my Apple HDTV" Munster lately? I'm genuinely concerned for his wellbeing after this news. Granted, Jobs was famous for saying he'd never do something, then turning around and doing that very thing. The iPhone itself is the most notorious example of this. Also, Jobs said no to the TV concept a year before he allegedly claimed he had "cracked" the concept of an Apple TV. However, the reasons Jobs gave for not getting Apple into the TV business - "They don't turn over and the margins suck" - remain as true today as they were four years ago when he said this. I don't see what Apple has to gain by selling $1000-plus televisions with razor-thin margins instead of continuing to sell inexpensive, margin-friendly miniature computers that can plug into any television. Apparently, at one point, Steve Jobs didn't see it either.
Rumor Roundup: Questionable content
It's been a pretty slow week for rumors, and there's been a surprising lack of pie-in-the-sky speculation about the iWatch lately. iOS 7.1 builds for two new iPads 4,3 and 4,6 released, likely minor hardware revisions (9to5 Mac) Two unreleased iPad model identifiers have shown up in iOS 7.1 code. Although this is often a signifier of forthcoming new hardware, it doesn't translate to new products 100 percent of the time. Rumor: Design of Apple's new big-screen iPhone will be cross between iPhone 5c & 7th-gen iPod nano (AppleInsider) Macotakara, the source for this report, is pretty hit-or-miss. It's had some pretty big and accurate hits in the relatively recent past, however, so unlike similar publications from that part of the world, it's still worth paying a smidgen of attention to them. Apple job listings suggest cameras coming to Apple TV, hinting at motion controls (AppleInsider) AppleInsider continues the recent rumor blog trend of reading far too much into Apple's job postings. If Apple puts out an advertisement for a Human Resources Manager, you can bet AppleInsider will step up to the plate to speculate that Apple will be taking steps to revolutionize the HR industry. iOS 8: Apple works to further push iCloud as the future of the file system (9to5 Mac) Since this came from 9to5 Mac's own sources rather than some analyst or other traditionally terrible source, this is likely true. Questionable screenshots from China claim to show TextEdit, Preview, Healthbook apps in iOS 8 (AppleInsider) Fake fake fakedy fake.
Rumor Roundup: Assumes facts most definitely not in evidence
This Roundup is going to make it seem like I'm singling out one particular publication and picking on them because they're an easy target. This is not the case; over the past few days, they've been the only target. No one else in my rogue's gallery of rumor blogs has been audacious enough to commit the unholy trinity of gaffes below. A costly mistake: Report claims unsold iPhone 5c inventory is piling up fast (BGR) Any report that casts the iPhone 5c as a tremendous failure is guaranteed to show up on BGR. Unfortunately for BGR's perpetually dwindling credibility, this "report" was sourced from Digitimes, which means I'd sooner accept the authenticity of a Polaroid photo of Bigfoot riding the Loch Ness Monster to the pot of gold at the end of the rainbow. Digitimes' "report" makes absolutely no sense in the light of Apple's agile supply chain -- the very innovation that current CEO Tim Cook brought to the organization. The idea that three million devices are just sitting around waiting for buyers is absolutely laughable given what we know of Apple's "just-in-time" supply model. Digitimes is the Weekly World News of the tech universe, and BGR is its perpetually credulous and intensely gullible Daily Mail. iPhone 6 has Apple gearing up for the most massive iPhone launch yet (BGR) Here's another "report" sourced via Digitimes, quoting a bunch of made-up numbers spouted from some analyst's guess-hole. Once you get rid of the speculation, the guesswork, and the links to other speculative pieces of guesswork, all that's left of this "report" are the words "a" and "the" plus a couple of adjectives. More evidence suggests Apple's 'iTV' plans are real (BGR) Oh, this should be good. What's this "evidence" they're prattling on about this time? "A company with expertise in high-resolution display technology [...] said that Apple brings in more than 10% of its revenue." The analyst that BGR breathlessly reblogged immediately leapt to the conclusion that this means the company, Pixelworks, is developing the long-rumored but never seen (and totally nonsensical) Apple HDTV. There's just a tiny flaw in this logic. Namely, that Apple currently manufactures no less than six devices featuring high-resolution displays: iPhone 4s iPhone 5c iPhone 5s iPad mini with Retina display iPad Air MacBook Pro with Retina display But no, I'm sure that the tech Pixelworks produces isn't meant for any of those already-existing products. It must be meant for a product that's been rumored for years, but that Apple has shown not the least bit of interest in actually producing. People pay these so-called analysts actual money for this kind of "insight." In what universe does that make even the most infinitesimal iota of sense?
Rumor Roundup: 1573rd time's the charm
Apple adding hundreds of new engineers and operations staff in China to speed development of larger iPhones (9to5 Mac) The Wall Street Journal says Apple is on a hiring spree in Asia, and they claim this means Apple will perform "faster and more frequent product launches." The Journal only very rarely gets anything right about Apple, and that usually occurs the night before a product launch. As there are no product launches imminent within the next few days, I'm not convinced. I'm even less convinced by the Journal's claim that Apple is aiming for "faster and more frequent product launches," because that smells an awful lot like the "Apple needs to be more like Samsung unless it wants to be DOOMED" advice that the more brainless analysts love to dish out. Leak: iPhone 6 component photo may reveal major design overhaul (BGR) Congratulations to BGR for falling for such a blatantly obvious fake. And by "congratulations" I mean "LMAO." iPhone 6 camera will be even better without entering the megapixel war (BGR) The source for this rumor is some random post on Weibo. Keep an eye out next week when BGR posts next-gen iPad specs gleaned from my Facebook timeline. Apple to Reportedly Stop Production of 13-Inch Non-Retina MacBook Pro Later This Year (MacRumors) "...according to a new report from Digitimes." BZZZZT! Next. Apple's A8 Chip Production for iPhone 6 Underway at TSMC (MacRumors) This marks roughly the 1573rd time in the past two years that chip production for Apple has been "underway" at TSMC. It never actually happened on occasions 1 through 1572, but you know what they say, 1573rd time's the charm! Report: Apple bringing full screen, interstitial iAds to iPhone (9to5 Mac) From the article: "The new iAd option will allow included video content to play automatically at full screen rather than being prompted by tapping a more subtle banner." This does not sound remotely like anything Apple would ever do. Automatically-playing video ads are among the worst user experiences ever -- we do our best to squash them immediately whenever such ads dare to show their ugly faces at TUAW. They're even more irritating on a touchscreen device, which should never automatically do anything without user input of some kind. The user outcry over this would be immediate, swift, and brutal if it ever came to pass. I don't believe for a second that Apple would compromise its user experience this way... but it sounds like something that would be right up Google's alley.
Rumor Roundup: 'A research note to investors'
Did you know? You can say literally anything that pops into your head about Apple, and if you pass it off as a "research note to investors," rumor blogs will be on that like seagulls on a dropped French fry. Here's my research note to investors: Apple CEO Tim Cook has diverted billions of dollars into Apple's so-called "special projects" division. He has been spotted at work looking haggard and exhausted, as though he hasn't been sleeping particularly well lately. A mysterious, black vehicle was spotted emerging from beneath Apple headquarters in Cupertino; meanwhile, reports from the criminal underworld in the Silicon Valley area claim that a shadowy figure has been beating thugs to a pulp during the fog-filled nights. According to highly reliable sources in the Asian supply chain, Tim Cook is Batman. The iPhone 6's killer feature tipped to be the display... but not because of its size (BGR) BGR passes along a "report" from Forbes, and Forbes' "proof" that the next-gen iPhone will feature this rumored technology boils down to: The company CEO says the first phone with a "quantum dot" display will come out in the middle of this year Many (completely spurious and stupid) rumors have claimed the iPhone 6 will come out in the middle of this year And voila, a new head injury is born as I repeatedly slam my head against the desk over the sheer dumbness wafting off of this "analysis." Broadcom's new 5G Wi-Fi chip with 802.11ac, 2x2 MIMO could be tapped for future iPhone (AppleInsider) From the article: "Broadcom says the chip is already being produced, but did not specify when quantities would be reach levels necessary for wide distribution." (sic) In other words, don't be surprised if this chip doesn't show up in the next iPhone. What we might see in the next Apple TV (Macworld) This analysis is far more cogent and logical than absolutely anything any "analyst" has ever said about Apple's plans for television. People have spent the past three years reading the tea leaves over a single paragraph in Walter Isaacson's biography of Steve Jobs (the one where he claimed to have "cracked" television), and the speculation has run wild, free and stupid ever since. Apple sapphire supplier's projected 2H14 revenues likely indicate fall iPhone launch (9to5 Mac) This, of course, depends upon the presumption that Apple intends to use sapphire overlays for displays on the iPhone, and not some other product... either one that already exists or one yet to be announced. It also depends on the next source being wrong, <sarcasm>which is unlikely because he seems totally reliable and definitely knows what he's talking about</sarcasm> ... New report says iPhone 6 will launch in July (BGR) Some analyst's "report" claims the iPhone will launch in July. I've never heard of this guy before, nor the firm he works for, so obviously everything he says about Apple is worth taking at face value. Especially considering his "sources" for this "report" -- supply chain checks in Asia. It should be blindingly obvious by now to anyone with more than a small handful of greymatter inside their skull that analysts like this one have absolutely no idea about what Apple will do in the future, and so-called "reports" like this one are pure white noise. Yet BGR and multiple other rumor blogs go on publishing their nonsense anyway, despite literally years worth of precedent for the fact that these types of "reports" are fundamentally worthless. Anyone still passing on analysts' "research notes to investors" as though they constitute actual news should have all their fingers chopped off so they can never inflict this nonsense on us again. And no, I don't think that's too extreme; my first impulse was to smack them all into a coma with their own keyboards. Stop. Paying attention. To analysts. Full stop. The worst "APPLE IS DOOMED" bull**** we've read in a loooong time: Five features the iPhone 6 'must have to stay in the game' (BGR) BGR calling BS on someone else's "APPLE IS DOOMED" piece seems rather like if Fox News called out another media outlet for having a right-wing slant to its politics. Ironic isn't quite the correct word. I think the correct word rhymes with "hippo critical." Apple preparing software update to enhance functionality of iPhone 5s Touch ID (AppleInsider) Since the claims in this story seem well within the realm of possibility and aren't sourced from analysts or "the Far East," I'll call this one plausible. Apple Stores discounting Apple TV w/ $25 iTunes card ahead of new hardware rumored for spring (9to5 Mac) The promo exists - that's a verifiable fact. The connection to supposed new hardware, however, received a "Nope" from Jim Dalrymple of The Loop, who has a 100 percent accuracy record in such matters. Apple has the size, Google has the momentum, but the smart money has been on BlackBerry in 2014 (BGR) This is not a headline from The Onion or any of its countless imitators. Someone writing for BGR honestly believes that 2014 is BlackBerry's year. If BlackBerry still exists as a company in any meaningful way by this time in 2016, I will be very surprised. Upcoming Apple TV Product Will Include Video Game Support, Launch Date Unclear (MacRumors) The rumor mill seems particularly obsessed with the Apple TV lately, though thankfully the speculation has steered away from the perennially ridiculous "HDTV" concept and focused instead on an update to the current set-top box. If these "sources" keep saying "Apple TV update coming any week now" long enough, eventually they will be right. In the same vein, if you put a blind guy in front of a dartboard and give him an unlimited supply of darts (plus regular bathroom breaks), eventually he'll hit the bullseye. Apple Launching 'iOS In The Car' Next Week With Ferrari, Volvo and Mercedes-Benz (MacRumors) Turns out we didn't have to wait a week to find out if this is true; it is. As a full-time motorcycle rider, all I can think of with regard to CarPlay is, "Great, maybe this will help all those blind, dazed idiots pay slightly more attention to the road and what's in front of them... Yeah, right."
Rumor Roundup: Where don't Apple rumors come from?
Just because it's a slow week for rumors doesn't mean it's a slow week for people saying stupid things about Apple... including quite possibly the dumbest thing written all year. No points for guessing which of these two cited articles qualifies. Analyst delivers the ultimate insult to Apple, calls it 'the next Microsoft' (9to5 Mac) Some analyst says something incredibly, mind-bendingly stupid. For some reason, 9to5 Mac decides to pass it on. They don't bother to do any analysis of what he said or provide a counterpoint, merely straight reblogging of the aftermath of some analyst sniffing glue. Since they dropped the ball, let me give it a try. "[We] see no precedent that large-size tech companies simply start to broadly outperform again after a tough year or two if the law of large numbers is catching up to them and margins have peaked." Really? You see no precedent? Because I can certainly think of one, and for a bonus multiplier, it involves the exact company you're dooming and glooming about. It's called 1990s Apple versus 2000s Apple. There's your precedent, Einstein. Where do Apple rumors come from? Digitimes explains (CNET) This is not an article from The Onion. This is a seemingly honest attempt at an actual news story from a website that's attempting to portray itself as a legitimate source of tech news. CNET tried to determine the anatomy of Apple rumors... by asking Digitimes. This is roughly equivalent to attempting to learn about human anatomy from someone who failed veterinary school... who is also blind, and deaf, and has advanced motor neuron disease that has also deadened their tactile senses. And doesn't speak English. Also, it turns out they are actually a dolphin. Asking Digitimes to shed light on the world of Apple rumors is like asking any of the random hobos who wander around downtown Cleveland and harass people for spare change to elucidate the innermost workings of magnetic confinement nuclear fusion. Oh, you'll get an answer, but if you think that answer will put you within throwing distance of a workable tokamak, then may I suggest giving me your spare change instead of giving it to those hobos in Cleveland? You see, I own this bridge in New York City that's absolutely burning a hole in my pocket... Digitimes, whose accuracy record started off decent, quickly decayed to 50/50, then got exactly one thing right in all of 2013, is the absolute last source you should ask to provide an exposé on Apple rumors. Travel to North Sentinel Island, part of the Andaman Island chain in the Indian Ocean (Editor's note: Do not do this. You will die). The natives of this island are one of the last remaining uncontacted tribes of humans on Earth. They are incredibly hostile to all outsiders, but on the off chance they don't kill you on sight, you might try asking them to shed some light on the world of Apple rumors. The astoundingly reclusive Sentinelese, who have likely been isolated from the rest of humanity for thousands of years, who shot arrows at the helicopters that came to investigate their island following the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, would almost certainly be a better source of news related to Apple than Digitimes. These people, who have no knowledge whatsoever of writing, electricity, computers, the Internet, or the iPhone, would be able to provide insight at least an order of magnitude more accurate and helpful than absolutely anything Digitimes could possibly provide. CNET, of course, didn't bother to mention Digitimes' apocalyptically terrible accuracy record anywhere in its article. The fact that Digitimes provided no actual new insights is simply icing on the cake. Unfortunately, the icing is made of toxic algae, and the cake itself is... well, let's just say it's not safe for lunch and leave it at that. Here's a summary of Digitimes' insights offered in this article: Overseas suppliers begin manufacturing final-design Apple products 1-2 months prior to launch. Various prototypes and design iterations exist in the supply chain for 6-9 months. These early designs are generally heavily tweaked/modified prior to final production. This is why so many Apple rumors from this timeframe turn out to be woefully inaccurate. Apple and Samsung both control the entire process of producing their products, from design to final shipment. Such stunning insights. I'm surprised that Digitimes didn't also mention Apple's dedication to producing well-designed, well-crafted products with a simplistic and "obvious after the fact" design ethos. Tune in next week for CNET's exclusive interview with Samsung's design team, where CNET will ask a probing question sure to provide insightful responses: How does Samsung come up with so many compelling designs, year after year, for its hardware products, particularly its notebooks, tablets, and smartphones?
Rumor Roundup: Making something from nothing
Jony Ive disappears from Apple's online executive list (Update 2x: Back, PR comment) (9to5 Mac) This is an all-time classic example of rumor blogs trying to make something out of absolutely nothing. Design guru Jony Ive temporarily disappeared from the executive list on Apple's website, and the rumor blogs went super-duper-mega-ultra-ballistic in their race to see who could be FIRST(!) to break this non-news. Ultimately, it turns out Ive's disappearance from Apple's site was merely due to a technical glitch. The hilarious aftermath, where all of the rumor blogs end up looking like complete idiots, is presumably an unintended (albeit hilarious) side effect. Reports: A8 won't feature integrated LTE yet, low yield rates pushing Samsung out of the process? (9to5 Mac) Neither of these extremely sketchy rumors sourced from Asian tech publications are likely to be true. TPK to Reportedly Supply Flexible AMOLED Panels For Apple's iWatch (MacRumors) This "report" comes from The China Times, via Digitimes, which means we are officially all the way down the rabbit hole of poor credibility as far as Apple rumors are concerned. Rumor blogs seem to be head-over-heels in love with absolutely any half-baked story associating Apple with "flexible displays" - and yet, after many years of pimping these "reports," not a single Apple product on the market has a flexible display. Rumor: Apple working on 4.7", 5.6" iPhones for release in Q3 2014 (AppleInsider) When even AppleInsider calls a rumor "sketchy," it's safe to say it can be completely ignored. Latest additions to Apple TV development team to focus on third-party channels, content (AppleInsider) Another week, another instance of a rumor blog reading tea leaves based on postings on Apple's job site. It's worth mentioning (again) that if Apple is only just now hiring people for these Apple TV-related positions, the previously rumored notion of an April product announcement seems absolutely daft. Apple bought '3-year supply' of 4.5" sapphire displays, says Canonical CEO (AppleInsider) I'm not sure how well this statement jibes with reports that Apple has set up its own sapphire manufacturing facilities in the States. Perhaps the "three-year supply" wasn't particularly extensive in the first place? At any rate, this doesn't tell us much that we didn't already know with regard to Apple's supposed aspirations for sapphire displays.
Rumor Roundup: 'The near future'
Apple's New Vision for Apple TV 'Less Ambitious' Than Before (MacRumors) The Wall Street Journal reports that Apple has "scaled back" its plans for the next-gen Apple TV because of failed negotiations with cable companies. There is, of course, no way for us to know for certain that Apple's plans weren't more modest all along, and the loftier goals presented in the WSJ's reports could just as easily have been the typical sort of evidence-free nonsense birthed from analysts' maws. That's not how the world of Apple rumors works, however. If Apple ever dares to release a product or service that doesn't measure up to analyst expectations, it's never the expectations that are at fault. Apple set to discontinue legacy, non-Retina iPad 2 (AppleInsider) "People familiar with Apple's plans" claim the iPad 2 will soon be pining for the fjords. I read through this entire article three times, and I didn't see an actual discontinuation date other than "the near future" mentioned anywhere. "The near future" could mean literally anything. Thursday is the near future if you're a cosmetologist, while two million years from now is the near future if you're a cosmologist. Without a more specific date, this rumor is essentially meaningless. Here's a variation on it: Apple will soon discontinue the iPad Air. What do I mean by soon? That's for me to know and you to speculate. Endlessly. Because pageviews. Apple's iWatch won't take the same path as other failed smartwatches (BGR) The headline of this story has almost nothing to do with what follows, which is just a reblogging of another site's report on more people with biomedical sensor expertise that Apple has hired. Apple's 'iWatch' rumored to use optoelectronics to monitor heart rate, blood oxygen levels (AppleInsider) Here, AppleInsider, let me fix that headline for you: "Some analyst in China predicts Apple's 'iWatch' to use optoelectronics, has no proof whatsoever" Minus several million more credibility points for mentioning Ming-Chi Kuo in the final paragraph and calling him a "well-connected analyst." Ming-Chi Kuo is about as well-connected as a string of Christmas lights that's been sitting in a garage since the 1940s. Apple unlikely to launch 12.9" iPad or third-gen iPad mini in 2014, iPad Air to gain A8 & Touch ID (AppleInsider) Speaking of everyone's favorite "well-connected insider," Ming-Chi Kuo has finally come off vacation and made his first out-of-nowhere prediction for 2014. "Kuo has a strong track record with respect to predicting Apple's future product plans," AppleInsider claims. This simply isn't true. Kuo's accuracy record for 2013 was 50/50 at best. This is the same "well-connected insider" who spent at least the first half of last year claiming the iPad mini wouldn't get a Retina Display in 2013. "Accuracy" and this man's name do not belong in the same sentence, unless it's a sentence like, "Anyone claiming that Ming-Chi Kuo has a good accuracy record hasn't performed the slightest iota of due diligence." Apple May Have Considered Purchasing Tesla, Researching Audio to Predict Heart Attacks (MacRumors) The first part of this article is a laugh riot. Apple doesn't make name-brand acquisitions. Remember all those "reports" from a few years back insisting that Apple was in talks to buy Twitter? Now, remind me how many Twitters Apple owns today? Apple makes small, strategic acquisitions of companies few people have ever heard of. Tesla is not one of those companies. As for the second half of this report, a portable device that can warn its user of an impending heart attack would be a significant leap forward for medical technology. As for me, I eagerly await a computer-based olfactory sensor that can detect BS and permanently disable analysts' keyboards.
Rumor Roundup: Contradictions are contraindicated
Multiple instances of publications contradicting one another, and sometimes even themselves? That would get writers fired relatively quickly in any other field, but it's pretty much par for the course when it comes to Apple rumors. New Apple TV hardware references already appearing in iOS 7 builds (9to5 Mac) When hardware references like these show up, they are usually -- but not always -- indicative of forthcoming new hardware. 9to5 Mac admits they have no idea of the possible timeframe involved, however. Rumor: Apple's 'iWatch' team grows to 200 people, device won't be regulated by FDA (AppleInsider) Buried five paragraphs deep into this article: "The source of Monday's rumor does not have an established track record with regard to rumors about future Apple products." Okay, then. Glad to see the blogosphere continues to vet its sources so thoroughly prior to passing on whatever they've written about Apple that afternoon. TSMC to Use Current Fingerprint Sensor Processing Method for iPhone 6 (MacRumors) The latest nonsense from Digitimes contradicts nonsense they published last month. For some reason, MacRumors once again neglects to mention the publication's consistently awful accuracy record, so I'll do it for them: Digitimes got exactly one thing right in 2013. They are not a reputable source of Apple news. Full stop. Apple rumored to use sapphire screen for 'iWatch,' but not next-gen iPhone (AppleInsider) From the article: "The rumors cropped up on a number of Chinese websites." And we all know how reputable those sources are. Considering Apple is (apparently) going to produce sapphire supplies in a factory it will own outright, this claim that "price is the deciding factor" doesn't make a lick of sense. Busted. iPhone 6 Said to Adopt 'Bezel-Free' Display (MacRumors) The source for this report, The Korea Herald, has yet to say anything about Apple's future plans that is remotely credible. According to MacRumors, "No significant details about Apple's plans for the iPhone 6 are shared in the report," which therefore leads me to wonder why they and all the other rumor blogs plastered this non-story all over the internet. Sony Likely to Provide Front-Facing Camera Sensors for Future iPhone (MacRumors) From the article: "It does not appear that the Sony-sourced front-facing camera sensors will make it into the iPhone 6 given the timeline specified in the article, and will instead be included in a future iPhone." In other words, the potential fruits of this rumor are comfortably far enough in the future that if this never happens, no one will remember. Next iPhone reportedly sports a larger screen and sapphire crystal display (9to5 Mac) Some Asian publication makes completely unverifiable claims about the next-gen iPhone, and 9to5 Mac is on it. This is the kind of not-news "reblogging" I took them to task for at the end of last year. They should stick to their own original reporting (which is both accurate and well-researched) and leave these types of junk stories on the cutting-room floor. What if: Apple 'iAnywhere' would turn iOS devices into computers (CNET) This article proves two things I've said on multiple occasions: Nothing CNET writes about Apple is worth taking seriously "Analysts" have no idea what they're talking about when they talk about Apple Seriously, this guy thinks an iOS-OS X convergence device is only 12-18 months away. This despite Apple's entire executive team loudly (and recently!) taking this idea out behind the woodshed and turning it into hamburger. Anyone who says iOS and OS X will converge is either being willfully ignorant or is simply oblivious to the reality of the market. An example of such a convergence device already exists, and it's been a tragic sales failure: Microsoft's Surface. You may have heard of it. But then again, based on the sales numbers, perhaps you haven't. Apple Likely to Slim Down iPhone and iPad with Thinner and Lighter Backlights (MacRumors) Imagine the opposite headline: "Apple likely to bulk up iPhone and iPad with thicker and heavier backlights." That would be news. This? This is not news. Bloomberg reiterates new Apple TV incoming, April introduction and Christmas launch (9to5 Mac) The first sign that this report is BS: the source is Bloomberg. They've posted so many inaccurate things about Apple's supposed future plans that they're no longer worth taking seriously. The second sign that this report is BS: it claims Apple will introduce a product in April but won't actually launch it until just before Christmas. Do you remember the last time Apple unveiled a product to the public and then waited eight months before actually putting it on sale? Yeah, me neither. Alleged iPhone 6 Prototype Depicted in New Images (MacRumors) Faaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaake.
Rumor Roundup: A matter of time
The iWatch was just about all anyone could talk about this week. Expect many more weeks like this one. Why a health-focused iWatch won't kill smartwatches like the iPod killed audio players (TechHive) Hey, let's speculate on why an unreleased Apple product won't upend an industry that's not even out of the incubator yet, much less in its infancy. Are you ready for the reasons? They're hilarious. 1. Apple's competitors already have products on the market. Sure, they're all crap, but just look at all those competing products! Apple can't just enter an existing product category and expect to outdo the established players. Because it's never (Macintosh) ever (iPod) done anything (iPhone) like that before (iPad). 2. "Apple will find itself in very unfamiliar territory [...] will need help from more serious, sober industry players." Hey, remember in 2006 when everyone was all, "Apple can't make a cell phone. What the heck does Apple know about making cell phones? Pfft." Predicting what Apple will do in the future based on rumors and hearsay is bad enough. Making bold predictions about Apple's success (or lack thereof) based on rumors is just fodder for the hilarity cannon. BOOM. IPHONE 6 LEAK: Almost every last detail about the iPhone 6 possibly revealed in new report (BGR) There is absolutely nothing remotely plausible listed in this so-called "report," and the source is some analyst in South Korea. Not exactly worth the hyperventilating all-caps headline there, BGR. Apple May Be Building Its Own Content Delivery Network (MacRumors) Some analyst thinks Apple is building its own content delivery network, but according to the article he "isn't entirely clear how in-depth the system will be." Well, stop the presses. The Wall Street Journal apparently confirmed this story, which is a bit like having a random street-corner hobo "confirm" the weird ranting about chemtrails and the Illuminati posted on Facebook by that one relative of yours who never gets invited to the family reunions since "the incident." iPhone 6 Rumored to Include 10+-Megapixel Camera with f/1.8 Aperture and Improved Filter (MacRumors; also reblogged by BGR) Since this story comes from "sources from Taiwan's industrial chain," expect these rumored specs to be a perpetually-moving target until the next-gen iPhone is actually released. And if any of these specs are lower than what was rumored, it'll be because of Apple's inability to deliver (for some reason) and not because the rumors were flat-out wrong to begin with. iWatch could be worth as much as iPhone & iPad first-year sales combined, says Morgan Stanley (9to5 Mac; also reblogged by AppleInsider, BGR) "Estimating the revenue value of a product whose price is unknown and whose existence hasn't even been confirmed is probably about as tenuous as it gets," 9to5 Mac notes, but then goes on to reblog this BS from CNET anyway. As did AppleInsider and BGR. Hey, guys? If you're aware of how "tenuous" this non-story is, maybe refrain from passing it on and adding to the perpetual racket of the echo chamber. Just a thought. Critical LG technology tipped to be found inside Apple's iWatch (BGR; also reblogged by AppleInsider) More Asian sources claiming to have inside knowledge about the tech that will be featured in unreleased, unannounced, unconfirmed Apple products. These sources are only just barely more accurate than so-called "analysts," so excuse my skepticism. iWatch time: Apple seeking physiologists to run fitness, energy expenditure tests (9to5Mac) Reality check: It's February. If Apple is still hiring people to test all the things described in this job listing, I seriously doubt the iWatch (or anything like it) will be released this year. Apple currently plans to release iOS 7.1 in March (9to5 Mac) The report on iOS 7.1's release date is most likely solid. Less so is the speculation that Apple may hold a March event. Apple just procured enough Sapphire Crystal furnaces to make 100-200M ~5-inch iPhone displays in Arizona (9to5 Mac) This looks an awful lot like actual investigative journalism. More of this, less of everything else.
Rumor Roundup: Prototypical
Several rumors from legitimately reliable sources have now come out with information about the iWatch that doesn't sound like completely pie-in-the-sky nonsense. This was so shocking I thought I might be having heart palpitations. There was no way for me to tell for certain, however, because I don't have a wrist-mounted device keeping track of several aspects of my biology and beaming that information to my iPhone... yet. Don't worry, Apple's not killing off the iPod yet (9to5 Mac) 9to5 Mac reads the tea leaves sprinkled around some of Apple's online job postings and figures the iPod will be getting a long-overdue redesign later this year, not just the minor refreshes it's seen over the past several years. Although the iPod sold "only" 6 million units last quarter, that still outnumbers the number of Macs Apple sold by about 1.2 million, and no one (with a triple-digit IQ, anyway) has been writing epitaphs for the Mac lately. However, there's no denying that the iPod line has been in steep decline for a long time, and this is a trend that will likely continue whether Apple heavily revamps the product or not. An iPod touch that's essentially the guts of an iPhone 5s, with Touch ID on the high end, in an iPhone 5c-like plastic shell, seems like the most likely outcome for that device this year. I base this idea on nothing but pure speculation, which is the kind of transparency you won't get from the analysts who'll say the same thing over the coming months. Apple Hires Chief Medical Officer From Pulse Oximetry Company Masimo, Possibly for iWatch Team (MacRumors) The plot thickens with regard to Apple's hires with experience in the biometrics field. This latest revelation relates to pulse oximetry, AKA a means of measuring blood oxygen saturation and pulse rate, AKA that irritating alligator clip thing they make you wear on your index finger at the emergency room. I'm still skeptical of the concept of the "iWatch" as a device designed to feed information from your phone to your wrist, but a device designed to feed information from your wrist to your phone is starting to look a little more plausible -- especially since several of those devices already exist, and according to some accounts a few of them actually work. Analyst Skeptical About Imminent Launch for 12.9-Inch 'iPad Pro' (MacRumors; also reblogged by BGR) Some analyst contradicts several other analysts by saying the "iPad Pro" is a long way off, assuming Apple is even interested in launching one. Now that we've heard both sides, we're left with the typical situation with these types of rumors: Apple may or may not be planning on launching this product. No one has any real idea either way, much less any actual proof, and the launch date for this possibly entirely mythical product will be a perpetually moving target in the months (and possibly years) to come. *coughAppleHDTVcough* iWatch + iOS 8: Apple sets out to redefine mobile health, fitness tracking (9to5 Mac) This report, drawn from 9to5 Mac's own reliable sources rather than the typical parade of analysts and Asian tech publications, is worth paying attention to. Whether Apple launches a device of its own or not, it's clear that it has its eyes set on the fitness tracking/biometrics space. One bit from this report is particularly interesting to me: "Sources with knowledge of the iWatch's development say that the future product is designed to be heavily reliant on the iPhone." This sounds a lot less like the "touchscreen on your wrist" concept that's been thrown around since the days of the iPod nano that looked vaguely watch-like. It's starting to sound more like a simple fitness band that offloads to the iPhone most of the actual job of interacting with the data it records. Building a Better Battery (New York Times) Every rumor blog out there focused on the iWatch angle of this piece while ignoring this key phrase: "such experiments are years from becoming a reality." I think this is symptomatic of a problem with tech reporting in general. We've been conditioned to expect technology that's in the experimental stage, or at best a crude prototype, to show up in shipping products within months instead of years. So when the next generation of product (X) instead shows evolutionary refinements of existing technology alongside a few new technologies substantially more modest than we were expecting, that's when the "disappointment" headlines start flying left and right. We expect an iPhone that's only a millimeter thick, with a 6-inch screen, 48-hour battery life when browsing over 3G, and a processor faster than the fastest MacBook Pro currently on the market. And inductive charging, and solar charging, and a flexible battery, and an "indestructible" display, and the ability to grab a wireless signal anywhere on Earth, and a camera sensor rivalling those in a DSLR, and 8 GB of RAM. And it had better cost the same as the iPhone 5s costs now, but we'd prefer it if it were cheaper. And we expect it this September, not in September of 2024. You got all that, Apple? Make it happen, or else you've "failed to innovate." Think of how much work had to go into the iPad before it actually hit the market, and how long that took. Apple built a prototype of the thing in 2002, but the first-gen device didn't come out until 2010. I'd argue further that the iPad Air is really the first iteration of the device that fully delivers on the ideal tablet concept without any of the compromises that came with earlier versions. So we're talking eight years between prototype and shipping product, then another three years between shipping product and fully-refined version of that product. The stuff that Apple's playing with in its underground labs would probably make the eyes bug straight out of your skull. Just don't expect to see any of it on store shelves this September.
Rumor Roundup: Still doomed after all these years
The days following Apple's earnings announcements are always chockablock with the very worst "analysis" that money can buy. I chose to steer clear of most of it, because there's only so many times I can bang my head against the desk before I start to worry about the desk. Rumor: Apple lining up suppliers for next-gen 'A8' processor (AppleInsider) I don't know what's more amazing: That AppleInsider published this Digitimes-sourced rumor without even a passing mention of their terrible accuracy record, or That AppleInsider was the only one who did so. Not even a shout-out from BGR? Amazing. Apple execs say iOS and OS X won't merge, and 10.10 will prove that (9to5 Mac; reblogged by MacRumors, BGR) I don't take issue with 9to5 Mac's speculation that OS X 10.10 (TEN... ten... ten...) will take baby steps toward looking slightly more like iOS 7, because it makes perfect sense for a variety of reasons. But MacRumors and BGR both passed on that speculation as though it were established fact, and that's the real issue here. It's a classic example of how the rumor blog echo chamber works: one guy with a decent accuracy record says something or other, and everybody leaps on it as though it came straight from Cupertino. The iPhone 6 may have a different kind of wireless charging (BGR; also reblogged by 9to5 Mac) Some analyst thinks the next iPhone will have embedded solar panels that will let people charge their phones by leaving them out in the sun. I have a crazy idea: let's do the math. I have an iPhone-compatible solar charger that I bought several years ago. Its surface area is roughly three times the available surface area of an iPhone. It has a built-in battery that takes between 8–12 hours to charge on a decently sunny day. Once full, that solar charger's battery was able to charge a fifth-gen iPod's battery (850 mAh) from zero to just about full. The iPhone 5s has a 1558 mAh battery - nearly double the capacity of my long-gone iPod. Assuming the solar panels in a hypothetical iPhone 6 were about the same efficiency as my solar charger, and assuming further that they have about 1/3 its available surface area, you would have to leave the iPhone in direct sunlight for anywhere between 44 and 66 hours to fully charge the battery. And where do iPhones spend most of their lives? In people's pockets. Something tells me this rumor is bogus. Tim Cook as good as confirms mobile payment via Touch ID on the way (9to5 Mac) From the department of, "Let's take one sentence Tim Cook said and write a few hundred words of speculative dosh about it." Tim Cook simply said this: "The mobile payments area in general is one we've been intrigued with. It was one of the thoughts behind Touch ID." Somehow that "as good as confirms" that Touch ID will enable mobile payments in the future. There are several hurdles to overcome before this becomes a reality, and the technological issues are the easiest. Getting businesses to partner with Apple to roll out a mobile payment technology is going to make Apple's negotiations with wireless carriers and media conglomerates look like child's play. While mobile payment technology has the potential to be very beneficial to users, more than a few businesses are going to balk at having Apple/iTunes act as an intermediary for their purchases. Probably just as many businesses will tell Apple, "Sure. We'll go ahead with this. That'll be $100 million, please." To which Apple will almost certainly say, "Yeah, nah." I'm optimistic that the technology is feasible. I'm far less optimistic that retailers will play along. The iPhone 5c flop hurt Apple more than you might realize (BGR) This piece is so vacuous it literally gave me a headache. "Apple's fiscal first-quarter earnings report was actually pretty good despite the 8% ding to Apple's share price," BGR says. "Pretty good," eh? What did Apple have to say about its earnings? "The Company posted record quarterly revenue of $57.6 billion and quarterly net profit of $13.1 billion." Ouch. The iPhone 5c is absolutely killing Apple. "The pricing structure between the 5c and 5s was, and now clearly is, a mistake, as more people want the latest and greatest from Apple, not a second-tier phone," BGR says. So their logic is that since more people bought the more expensive version of the iPhone, this is somehow bad for Apple? They're saying Apple should have sold a heap of cheap iPhones rather than a heap of expensive iPhones? Is this seriously the idea you're floating, BGR? Is this the first time you've ever heard of Apple? Is that you, John Wayne? Is this me? "Supply chain management is supposed to be Tim Cook's area of expertise. This large gaffe, of betting on the 5c this much, seems to speak to Cook's failing in this area, at least in the short term," BGR further bloviates. "He did note that the 5s eventually came into proper supply, but that it took Apple much of the quarter to get it right." Translation: Apple couldn't make enough of the (supply-constrained) iPhone 5s to satisfy demand, because more people wanted the more expensive version with the new features. The "obvious" solution to this problem was to make the iPhone 5c way cheaper and take a huge hit on its margins to make up for this shortfall in production of the version of the iPhone that people actually wanted to buy. Wait, what? "Apple looks like it will overcome this mistake, and learn that pricing an inferior product so close to a superior one doesn't make much sense, even if you put an Apple logo on the back of it." [citation needed] Apple aggressively pushing to take Arizona sapphire plant live in February for 'critical' product component (9to5 Mac) Here's my hope for this plant: Apple uses it to build and produce all design/production prototypes in a highly secure facility that's under its direct control, rather than some far-flung factory in China, and thereby puts an end to years of product leaks. It would be nice to be genuinely surprised by what's unveiled at an Apple keynote for a change.
Rumor Roundup: Non-zero chance
The Wall Street Journal awoke from its long slumber and squeezed out not just one, but two Apple rumors this week. Oblivious to the fact that the Journal hasn't gotten a months-in-advance rumor correct in a very long time, the various rumor blogs were all too willing to re-post the Journal's flimsily-sourced speculation. And thus, the seeds for another "disappointing" year for Apple have been planted. Apple iPhones to Come Out With Bigger Screens (Wall Street Journal) Stop me when this starts to sound familiar: Apple will launch two iPhone models later this year, and one of them will have a display bigger than five inches (measured diagonally) in order to stave off competition from the giant "phablet" devices sold by Samsung et al. And at the same time, Apple will ditch the plastic casing of the iPhone 5c in favor of returning to an all-metal lineup (kind of like a late-80s concert). If this is all invoking a bit of deja vu, it's because this isn't the first time we've heard this particular rumor. John Gruber of Daring Fireball didn't find this rumor particularly credible, and I don't blame him. The Wall Street Journal hasn't been a reputable source of Apple rumors for a long time - unless it's within 48 hours of an Apple event. Apple hasn't announced an event for late January, so I feel pretty safe dismissing their rumormongering this round. Sources say new Apple TV box likely coming soon, App/Game Store possible (9to5 Mac) It's unclear from the way this story is written whether 9to5 Mac's sourcing is original or if it's merely re-reporting what iLounge has said. If it's the former, and their own original sources are responsible for bringing this information to light, then this rumor has a very good chance of being true. If it's the latter, and this is all just reblogged from iLounge, that's a different story; iLounge's prediction record is pretty typical in that it had quite a few 100% hits several years ago but has been averaging 50% or less ever since. Video: iPhone 6 parts purportedly shown in new leak (BGR) "The larger iPhone is all but confirmed," BGR claims, which by itself is enough to cause cranial explosions in anyone with a shred of logic left inside their skull. But they do go on: "As with any early leaks, there is no telling whether or not this video is legit [...] without any other objects in the video with which to compare the parts, we can't determine whether or not the chassis is larger than that of the current generation of iPhones." In other words, they have no idea if this is actually a next-gen part or not. JOURNALISM! Foxconn completes assembly testing for sapphire-covered iPhone - report (AppleInsider; also reblogged by MacRumors) As reported by an Asian tech publication, corroborated by no other sources whatsoever. I was honestly surprised when the source of this report turned out to be someone other than Digitimes. Apple Pushes Deeper Into Mobile Payments (Wall Street Journal) The Journal's second Apple rumor this week revolves around the possibility of Apple introducing a mobile payment system that would let iPhone/iPad users purchase products and services using Apple's solution. Sort of an iTunes Store for physical goods, if this rumor is to be believed. Unfortunately, the Journal's track record with regard to Apple rumors has been terrible over the past few years, with the sole exception of leaks in the hours leading up to Apple events. The Argument for an 11.88-Inch Retina MacBook Air (MacRumors) I was all set to dismiss this out of hand, since the source is an analyst, but there's actual math supporting this claim, which makes it moderately more plausible. Note that in this case, "moderately more plausible" means "non-zero chance" rather than "definitely going to happen."
Rumor Roundup: Non-story story
Today's Zen koan: If an analyst predicts a 4.9-inch display for the iPhone 6, and there's no one around to reblog his claims without a second's hesitation, is Apple still doomed? Analysts estimate Apple sold 55.3M iPhones last quarter, up 16 percent (9to5 Mac; also reblogged by MacRumors, BGR) Analyst estimates of Apple's sales are rarely, if ever, close to the mark. Kind of like everything else analysts say about Apple. Korean rumor suggests iWatch has 1.5-inch curved OLED, set for summer launch (9to5 Mac; also reblogged by MacRumors, AppleInsider) "Treat it as a vague rumor for the purposes of speculative entertainment," 9to5 Mac suggests of this story that some Asian publication printed and subsequently pulled. It's funny how you say "speculative entertainment," but instead I hear, "ginning up pageviews so we can sell more ad space." Apple's iPhone 6 will reportedly surprise us all and launch this summer (BGR; also reblogged by AppleInsider) Chinese tech publications are notorious for their inaccuracy about Apple's future product plans, as are analysts. This report got some moldy chocolate in some rancid peanut butter, however, because its source is an analyst from China. I could probably find more accurate predictions about Apple's future by interviewing Bedouins in the Empty Quarter of Saudi Arabia who've never even heard of the company. In fact, after having lived in Saudi Arabia for a few years, I'm going to change "probably" to "definitely." Apple rumored to be planning €2B ($2.7B) European data center in Netherlands (9to5 Mac; also reblogged by AppleInsider) This rumor is so bland that it's probably true. (Aside: It seems odd to call a $2.7 billion investment bland, but this is Apple we're talking about.) New Mac Mini Coming by End of February According to Belgian Retailer (MacRumors; also reblogged by AppleInsider, 9to5 Mac, BGR) According to MacRumors, "Retailer placeholders are typically unreliable indicators of new product launches." I couldn't have put it better myself, yet for some reason all the usual suspects decided to run with this decidedly non-story story anyway. Analyst: Apple's 'iPhone 6' design 'locked down' with 4.8" display, 802.11ac Wi-Fi (AppleInsider; also reblogged by BGR, MacRumors) Some analyst we've never heard of, citing "checks within the company's supply chain," comes out with several claims about the next-gen iPhone's design nearly eight months in advance of the device's expected launch. Let's see... no-name analyst, supply chain checks (a traditionally dodgy source - at best), and specific claims about a device that won't launch for eight months... yes, I can totally see why this rumor was worth smearing all over the blogosphere.
Rumor Roundup: Having your cake and smearing it all over your face, too
Alongside the usual weekly dross are a couple of rumors that are finally worth taking seriously. Meanwhile, CNET manages to write the dumbest thing written about Apple all year. Don't worry, though. 2014 is still young. Apple to begin in-store iPhone 5c screen repairs next week (9to5 Mac) When it simply reblogs the latest nonsense rumor from some analyst or tech publication in Asia, 9to5 Mac is no more worth paying attention to than any other rumor blog. When it takes the trouble to do the actual work of tracking down sources and verifying information - something resembling genuine journalism, in other words - it's definitely worth sitting up and taking notice. Because it went 30 for 30 on its originally sourced rumors in 2013, I'm going to consider this (and any other originally sourced rumors) the real deal until or unless proven otherwise. 12.9-inch iPad reportedly won't launch before late Q3 (BGR; also reblogged by MacRumors) On the polar opposite of the credibility spectrum is the latest BS from Digitimes. In spite of the fact that Digitimes got exactly one thing right in 2013, BGR and MacRumors both continue reblogging everything the publication prints about Apple. They don't even bother to acknowledge Digitimes' terrible track record anymore. Not even a "sometimes reliable" for old time's sake. Apple continues hiring raid on medical sensor field as it develops eye scanning technology (9to5 Mac) In yet another example of authentic, original reporting, 9to5 Mac notes that Apple is on a hiring frenzy for people involved in biomedical sensor technology. They immediately jump to the conclusion that this must be meant for the iWatch; the rest of the Apple rumor universe had better hope not, because if Apple has only just now hired these experts, it means the "year of the iWatch" is likely to be "delayed" yet again. The iPhone 6 won't wow: 6 reasons why (CNET) This piece could just as easily have been titled, "Six reasons why CNET coverage of Apple should never be taken seriously again." CNET's writer says, "I have a hunch there will never be an iPhone 6 [...] or, there will be an iPhone 6 and it will disappoint." This is called having your cake and smearing it all over your face, too. Let's see what kind of straw house CNET's constructed in an attempt to support this theory. "1. iOS is stale." This argument might have passed muster a year ago. However, following the launch of iOS 7, arguably the biggest shakeup in iOS since its launch, this point seems completely ridiculous. "2. Samsung and Android are rocking it lately." Just like every other year, when Android is ascendant and Apple is doomed. Unless you actually look at the sales numbers, which tell a completely different story. "3. Apple is different under Tim Cook." Or in other words, "Steve Jobs never would have done any of the things Apple has done since late 2011." Poor Tim Cook just can't catch a break. Either everything he's done during his tenure as CEO was mapped out years in advance by Jobs before his death, or else Cook is simply fumbling along blindly and screwing up in ways Jobs never would have. CNET cites the iPad mini as an example of the "Steve Jobs never would have done this" mentality. The problem: Steve Jobs was famous for saying "No" to things he later said "Yes" to. Including products you may potentially have heard of, such as the iPhone and iPad. "4. Young people don't think Apple is cool anymore." According to one marketing firm's research, that is. That same marketing firm claimed "the kids" were into Windows Phone these days. Because nothing screams "cool" like Windows Phone, and because teens are notorious for telling the truth to adults. You know what else teens are notorious for? Owning iPhones. "5. Price does matter." Only if you're chasing after market share instead of profit share. Guess which one Apple prefers? Hint: if you have to guess, if you don't know, you shouldn't be writing about Apple. Ever. "6. To wow, you need a wow factor." Steve Jobs revolutionized seven industries every day before parking his Mercedes in the disabled parking spot at Cupertino HQ. But since the iPad, all Apple has been doing is coasting on its past successes. It's only been iterating, not innovating. I mean, just compare the iPad Air to the original iPad. At least an order of magnitude more powerful, much better screen, incredibly thin and light... probably the first version of the iPad that could legitimately be a standalone computer for the majority of its intended users. What has Apple even been doing since 2010? "Right now I'm having a hard time imagining any iPhone 6 that will elicit that [wow]. I sure hope I'm proven wrong." I don't know thing one about the iPhone 6, but I'm not having a hard time imagining you being proven wrong, fella.
Rumor Roundup: Farming the oceans, the Moon, and Antarctica
Apple rumor drinking game: Every time some rumor blog passes on baseless speculation from some analyst or unsourced nonsense from an Asian tech publication, take a sip. If the source is Gene Munster, Peter Misek, Brian White, or Ming-Chi Kuo, take three sips. If the source is Digitimes, finish your drink. DISCLAIMER: Never, ever actually play this game with alcoholic beverages. You will die. Cantor: Wearables now a 'legitimate' product category, but only an Apple 'iWatch' would drive sales (AppleInsider; also covered by BGR) Brian "iRing" White thinks CES proves wearables are now a "legitimate" product category, but he doesn't think the wearable market will matter until Apple launches an iWatch. Products exhibited at CES have been divorced from the reality of the consumer market for a long time. Remember when 3D TV was going to be the next big thing? How did that work out? White's "iRing" speculation last year rendered him a laughingstock in an already crowded market of people whose musings about Apple should never be taken seriously. This piece is no exception. Fewer than 0.01 percent of mobile apps will be financially successful by 2018, predicts Gartner (9to5 Mac; also covered by BGR) Back in 2011, Gartner also predicted that Windows Phone handsets would outsell the iPhone by 2015. But let's pretend to care what they say anyway, just this once. From the article: "Gartner predicts that fewer than one in 10,000 apps will be considered financially successful by their developers." And from Gartner's own press release: "Gartner is forecasting that, by 2017, 94.5 percent of downloads will be for free apps." They also predict that 20 percent of enterprise BYOD programs will fail by 2016, and by 2019 we will have cities on the Moon, farms in Antarctica, flying cars, off-world colonies, constant rain, and androids so similar to humans that the only way to tell the difference will be to force them to watch Old Yeller. (If they don't shed a single tear, shoot first and ask questions later.) One does not simply predict future trends so far out in a market this volatile and prone to rapid shifts in direction. It is folly. Rumor: Apple to reintroduce 8GB iPhone 4 to curb flagging India sales (AppleInsider; also covered by BGR) Some Asian tech publication claims that Apple will sell a stripped-down version of a three-year-old iPhone to chase after market share. Because if there's one thing Apple is all about, it's selling deliberately hobbled hardware in order to sell its products to as many people as possible. Do any of these people actually pay attention to the company they're writing about? You know those rumors that the iPhone 6 might launch as soon as May? Yeah, not so much... (BGR; also covered by MacRumors) Source: "A new report from Digitimes" -BZZZT. Actually, this might well be the one report Digitimes actually gets right this year. Since they burned their card early, does this mean we can stop paying attention to their drivel for the rest of 2014? Please? Next-gen iPhone may boast 5" 'full HD' display, flexible AMOLED for 'iWatch' (AppleInsider) From the article: "The DisplaySearch projections are merely speculation, but the firm has seen some success in predicting Apple's hardware moves. As such, AppleInsider offers the following information for purposes of discussion only." Discussion? You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means. Either that or you never turned off autocorrect on your Mac, and it keeps changing "pageviews" to "discussion" when you type. Anyway, since this entire "report" from DisplaySearch is pure speculation, it's not even worth looking at the specifics. Anyone can guess what Apple will do in the coming months. If it's not news when some guy on a street corner predicts the Apocalypse will happen on June 13, why is it news when DisplaySearch throws some chicken bones on the floor and, with no legitimate sources for its information, predicts what Apple will do in the coming year?
