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Rumor Roundup: Zero revolutionary devices
iPhone 6 Rear Camera to Retain 8-Megapixel Sensor, Offer Improved Image Stabilization? (MacRumors; also covered by 9to5 Mac, BGR) From the article: "The report cites analysts from Nomura Securities" - and we all know how "accurate" these analysts are when it comes to Apple. Also, check this out: "iPhone camera module supplier Largan Precision saw its stock take a significant dip yesterday amid rumors that Apple will not be upgrading the resolution of the rear camera for the iPhone 6 later this year." Real companies are losing real money because of stupid rumors. I wonder how many people at this company will end up losing their jobs just to keep the echo chamber echoing? Half of iPhone 6 Orders Expected to Go to Pegatron (MacRumors; also covered by BGR, 9to5 Mac) And thus we hit our mandatory quarterly quota of "Pegatron will take over a significant chunk of iPhone production" articles sourced from Asian tech publications. We also hit our mandatory weekly quota of 9to5 Mac calling a poorly-sourced rumor "sketchy" but passing it along anyway. Opinion: What "three revolutionary devices" will the iWatch be? (9to5 Mac) "Apple has never been interested in being first to market, so no-one should be remotely surprised that others launched the smartwatch first." No one should be remotely surprised if Apple never makes a smartwatch, either. Seriously, who is this still-hypothetical device supposed to appeal to besides the analysts who insist it exists and the gadget nerds who breathlessly speculate on what it could be like? Apple doesn't make products for gadget nerds. It makes products designed to have as much appeal as possible to a specific audience: "normal" human beings with a penchant for good design and a thirst for tools that let them get things done that they couldn't do before. "The first revolutionary device would be ... a watch." Okay. And how many people care about watches anymore? If I look around the office at my day job, the only people I see wearing watches are either sports enthusiasts or people over fifty. "Integrated fitness functionality in a smartwatch, then, will be the second revolution." Good luck making such a device have wide appeal in a country where over a third of the population is obese. Fitness bands are still an edge-case tool. You know who doesn't tend to enter edge-case markets? I'll give you a hint: it rhymes with "Mapple." "Which leaves the third revolution: the smartwatch functionality [...] I see an iWatch as mostly a secondary screen for an iPhone rather than a standalone gadget." This was the first suggested use case for a potential Apple-branded smartwatch, all the way back when the last-gen iPod nano came out and sparked off all this "iWatch" piffle in the first place. No one has convinced me that being able to read notifications on my wrist, sent from my phone, is somehow better than just reaching into my pocket and grabbing my phone. Considering this is Apple we're talking about, any hypothetical iWatch product would more than likely start at a base price of US$150 to $200. Those three "revolutionary devices" put together wouldn't be enough for me to shell out that kind of money, and I've got a house stacked high with Apple products already. The iWatch is nothing more than an analyst's bad acid trip. Sadly, it looks like a trip we'll all have to endure for most of 2014.
2013 Rumor Retrospective: 'All the leaks were...'
I've been writing Rumor Roundups for nearly two years now. In all that time, only two writers from sites featured in the Roundup have ever contacted me directly: In mid-2012, Rene Ritchie of iMore contacted me once to (correctly) point out a regrettable inaccuracy I'd written about one of his site's claims. Several times over the past few months, Mark Gurman of 9to5 Mac has contacted me via Twitter, and each time he contacts me his behavior becomes more and more... "erratic" is probably the polite way to put it. On December 19, 9to5 Mac posted a 2013 retrospective patting themselves on the back for their supposed accuracy in the field of Apple rumors. "All the leaks were right," their article claimed. This was an intriguing claim to make, as 9to5 Mac takes the same "throw everything against the wall and see what sticks" approach to rumors as almost every other Apple site out there, and as a result they inevitably post heaps of wildly inaccurate information about Apple's supposed future plans. When I dared to point out that 9to5 Mac deliberately ignored the dozens of inaccurate stories that it posted during 2013, Mark Gurman challenged me to prove it. I was at the beach in Mount Maunganui, New Zealand when Gurman first contacted me on Twitter. I ignored him at first, but barely two hours later he insisted that I provide him with a list of inaccurate links. I was still at the beach. Sometimes, the real world takes precedence. I assured him I'd get to it in due time. Naturally, because this is the internet, this was soon followed by a handful of 9to5 Mac readers taunting and harassing me on Twitter. One of them even made a veiled threat about it not being a good idea to "pick a fight" with "9to5 Warriors" because "we don't get much sleep, you know." Regrettably, I was too busy laughing my ass off to be properly intimidated. But it did provide me with the motivation to do a deep dive into 9to5 Mac's vaunted accuracy - as did Gurman once again prodding me (in a tweet he's since deleted), days after his initial challenge, to provide a list of inaccurate claims his site had made (or passed on). There is an old Vulcan proverb: "Be careful what you ask for. You may get it." I examined all of 9to5 Mac's articles between January 1 and December 28 2013. This was 326 pages of content, at 6 articles per page, for a total of 1956 articles. The tl;dr summary of 9to5 Mac's 2013 track record: 73 rumor articles turned out to be true, and 30 of those were derived from their original sources 91 rumor articles turned out to be either partially or entirely inaccurate, or else completely unverifiable That gives them an overall accuracy record of just under 45 percent. You'd do better by flipping a coin. In 2013, 9to5 Mac posted a total of 164 articles that were either purely rumors or else speculative posts based on rumors. This was lower than I expected, accounting for only about 8.4 percent of all articles on their site. 9to5 Mac posted an impressively high 73 rumor articles that turned out to be entirely true, and this included all of the articles derived from their own original sources-a truly impressive and commendable 30 articles in total. 9to5 Mac absolutely does have someone inside Apple (probably several someones) feeding them accurate information. If that were the whole story, then it'd be time for me to shut up and retire. Unfortunately, 9to5 Mac isn't content to stick with its own trusted sources, and it takes the same "shotgun" approach as everyone else by posting idiotic analyst speculation and Digitimes-derived BS with only occasional nods in the general direction of skepticism. Let me be perfectly clear: I take no issue whatsoever with 9to5 Mac's reporting of rumors derived from its own original sources. They obviously work hard to get this information, and it almost always turns out to be either wholly or substantially accurate. The problem is, it's hard to sort out these diamonds from the piles of typical "telephone game" nonsense Apple rumors they're buried in. If 9to5 Mac stuck to reporting only its own, originally-sourced rumors-and if they could rein in the more *ahem* enthusiastic members of their staff-they could easily be the undisputed go-to bastion of all Apple rumors. Sadly, that ain't so. I wasn't feeling particularly charitable in my analysis of 9to5 Mac's track record (for some strange reason). Therefore, for any story that wasn't derived from their own sources (a "re-reported" article, in other words) or any purely speculative posts, if any detail was ultimately incorrect or simply unverifiable, I counted the entire article as inaccurate. In 2013, 9to5 Mac posted 91 stories that were either partially or wholly inaccurate. Almost all of them were sourced from analysts, Digitimes, or some other typically unreliable source. Analysis of 9to5 Mac's record over 2013 provided some interesting insights into the state of Apple rumors as a whole. Predictably, the farther away we are from the date of an Apple event, the less likely a rumor is to be proven true. Photos of hardware, deep dives into software, and leaks derived from original sources almost always bear fruit; re-blogging of analyst speculation and the latest tripe from Digitimes and other "supply chain sources" almost never does. And despite claims that Ming-Chi Kuo is a "typically accurate" Apple analyst, his track record in 2013 is almost the same as 9to5 Mac's; in other words, approximately half of Kuo's predictions ultimately turn out to be either partially or substantially incorrect. There are three lessons to learn from all of this: 1. Do follow 9to5 Mac's positive example and rely on primary sources for information about Apple, its products, and its future roadmap. Whoever the people are within Apple who are talking to 9to5 Mac, they know what they're talking about. 2. Don't follow 9to5 Mac's negative example and throw out absolutely every word some analyst or Asian tech publication prints about Apple. These secondary sources almost never have the foggiest clue what they're talking about. Re-posting their nonsense does your site's reputation no favors. All it does is distract from the positive reporting you do (if any)-- the kind that involves actual work beyond simply re-wording someone else's dimwitted press release. 3. Don't mess with the bull. You'll get the horns. For the sake of completeness and transparency, the full list of 2013's accurate vs. inaccurate/unverifiable 9to5 Mac rumor articles is below, with a special notation (*) any time an accurate article was derived from 9to5 Mac's own sources. Accurate articles: 73 (30 from original sourcing) Apple's 2013 Macs will have superfast 802.11ac 'Gig Wi-Fi' Apple Marketing SVP Phil Schiller seems to deny talk of cheap iPhone 4.8-inch iPhone 'Math' reports don't add up Apple ready to release additional iPad model; likely 128GB version (Updated: Pricing) (*) Report shares new details on Apple's rumored low-cost iPhone with tapered plastic edges HBO and Apple reportedly team up for Apple TV content deal, said to begin first half of 2013 We haven't seen a credible source yet for a 5-inch iPhone Unverified rear shells for next-generation iPad mini surface on Chinese forum First photos of cases for next full-sized iPad again point to narrower, iPad mini-like design (*) Low royalty offers leading Apple's struggles in negotiating streaming music service (update: Delayed until summer?) Apple unlikely to introduce wireless charging iPhones this year despite rumors to the contrary Progress: Apple is pushing for an iRadio summertime launch OS X 10.8.4 code confirms new Macs incoming with super-fast 802.11ac Gigabit wireless support (*) Possible white 'iPad 5′ front bezel leaks show narrower edges Apple nears 'iRadio' streaming deal with Warner and Universal in a dozen markets, royalties on par with Pandora rates iPad 5 may be slimmer & lighter thanks to backlighting & touchscreen improvements Apple to release OS X 10.9 with new power-user features, more from iOS later this year (*) Jony Ive paints a fresh, yet familiar, look for iOS 7 (*) In iOS 7, Apple wants to own your car's console with Maps and Siri integration (*) Next Mac 'Gigabit Wifi' spotted? Broadcom BCM94360CD PCI-E mini WLAN+Bluetooth card in the wild Rumor: Cheaper iPhone is being tested in a plethora of colors, will be produced July-September Jony Ive's new look for iOS 7: black, white, and flat all over (*) Apple said to be closing music deals in order to launch 'iRadio' at upcoming WWDC Apple again plans AirDrop wireless file-sharing for iOS (*) Leaked SKUs likely point to MacBook refresh at WWDC as inventory tightens (*) Redesigned 9.7-inch iPad to ship in Q3 with new iPad mini to follow by holiday season? (Holy crap, Digitimes actually got one right! *confetti, mariachi band* ) MacBook Air refresh looks set for WWDC, potentially with faster Wi-Fi (*) What iOS 7 looks like (and other tidbits) (*) And this morning's second dubious iPhone rumor: a gold 5S More images of iPhone 5S prototype emerge, complete with probable A7 chip and dual-LED smart flash Dual-color LED 'SmartFlash' on next iPhone could mean dramatically better low-light photos Apple likely to kick off Back to School promo this week; $100 gift cards with Macs, $50 cards with iPad/iPhone (*) iWork, iLife appear in iOS 7 free downloads screen, corroborates Apple apps going free theory The next iPhone's cool-factor: a slow-motion camera? (*) As part of iPhone sales push, Apple Store app to be redesigned & gain free iTunes content (*) New Haswell MacBook Pros in October, says report citing parts suppliers Bin full of 'iPhone 5C' packaging captured in China, perhaps name of upcoming plastic iPhones? (Update: dubious) 'iPhone 5C' name called legit even after packaging called fake New iPhone with biometric fingerprint sensor seemingly confirmed by iOS leak (*) Apple's upcoming A7 iPhone chip will have Samsung components, code inside iOS 7 reveals (*) More part leaks indicate lower-cost iPhone will feature 8 megapixel camera Bob Mansfield reduced role to focus on chips, senior execs given new responsibilities (*) AppleCare chat support to soon go 24/7, new iOS-like web support interface coming (*) New photos of next full-sized iPad's display panel emerge, again point to thinner bezels [Gallery] Apple will reportedly unveil the next iPhone on Sept. 10 'iPhone 5S' (plus gold model), 'iPhone 5C' will actually be names of next iPhones? WSJ says what we all knew: iPad 5 will look like a big Mini Further evidence for dual-flash in iPhone 5S emerges, promising natural-looking indoor shots New photos claim to show Apple's rumored gold color option for iPhone 5S New next-gen iOS device rumors: Photos of silver iPad 5 back, more claims of gold 5S iPhone 5S will come in gold & likely sport fingerprint sensor, iPad iOS 7 running behind (*) Gold/Champagne iPhone 5S shell compared to white and black iPhones [Gallery] Apple said to have tested 64-bit 'A7′ chips for iPhone 5S, 31% speed increases reported (*) Apple planning to launch iPhone trade-in program by September (*) Apple's iPhone 'Reuse and Recycle' trade-in program detailed, begins rolling out August 30th (*) Photos claim to show 'iPhone 5C' packaging, color-matched wallpapers Apple's OS X Mavericks release planned for end of October (*) Sketchy photos claim to show iPhone 5S box with tweaked home button as fingerprint sensor speculation increases New Apple TV software likely coming next week, but don't expect fresh hardware (yet) Supposed iPhone 5S User Guide brands fingerprint sensor as 'Touch ID' High-res photos of upcoming Space Gray full sized-iPad emerge [Gallery] Apple to expand iPad's reach with Staples deal next month (*) iPhone 5s and 5c coming soon to Boost Mobile? iPhone's Touch ID metal ring fits in iPad 5 part, but likely isn't evidence for fingerprint-scanning iPads (*) Apple will announce next generation iPads at October 22nd event Apple prepping expansion of iPhone trade-in program to UK, Europe stores (*) Like iPad 3, new iPad mini could be technically thicker to fit Retina Display Redesigned iPhoto & Garageband iOS icons appear, indicate likely makeovers next week (*) Apple Stores to soon offer iPhone 5s & 5c screen replacements, other repairs (*) Apple internal tool oddly says Retina iPad mini launching November 12th Apple Stores to implement iBeacon location technology to improve service, boost sales (*) China Mobile launch for iPhone as good as confirmed for 18th December [Update: It's official] Apple's Black Friday deal to be store gift card promotion, not discounts (*) Inaccurate articles: 91 Apple A6 X processor production reportedly goes from Samsung to TSMC, trial set to begin this quarter - Samsung still manufactures chips for Apple. What needs to happen for Apple to turn its watch prototypes into a product - "Rumor has it Apple is working on a Bluetooth 4.0-enabled smart watch and could even launch the device as early as the first half of this year." Yeah, not so much. WSJ once again claims Apple working on less-expensive iPhone, this time for late 2013 - One of many, many articles in 2013 that misclassified the iPhone 5c as a cheap alternative intended to expand Apple's market share, particularly in emerging markets. This was by far the biggest and most sustained rumor blog fail of the year. Analyst claims both 'thinner and lighter' full-sized iPad and 'similar' iPad mini launching in March - The iPad revisions didn't launch until October. Only off by seven months, Brian White. Good job! Apple cuts iPhone 5 screen orders in half due to 'weak demand', says WSJ - Tim Cook himself pointed out that this story was typical of the tech press overanalyzing Apple's supply chain and reaching entirely wrong conclusions. Analyst: Initial iPhone 5S production to begin in March for June/July launch - The iPhone 5s didn't launch until September. Only off by two months, Peter Misek. Good job! Reuters claims Sharp has all but stopped producing iPad Retina displays - Another classic example of tech publications reaching incorrect conclusions based solely on "sources in the supply chain." Report claims iPad 5 with iPad mini-like design set for October release, offers new details on upcoming iPhones - "Virtually no left or right bezels, and only enough space above and below the screen to accommodate the mandatory camera and Home Button elements [...] a new screen technology, such as IGZO, seems like a given." Three strikes. You're out. Retina 'J85′ iPad mini in October, faster 'N51/N53′ iPhone 5S with 13MP Sony camera on target for July? - The iPhone 5s launched in September with an 8-megapixel camera. Oops. Rumored future iOS device evidence: sketchy iPhone parts photo, 128GB device code - Speculation that the iPhone 5s would come in a 128 GB capacity turned out to be false. Instead, this upgrade found its way to the iPad. Is this the back of Apple's redesigned fifth-generation iPad? - Nope. Wrong color. 'Radio Buy Buttons' found in iOS 6.1 via newly jailbroken iPads, could mean new functionality coming - These buttons never appeared in IOS 6 or 7. Apple reportedly tells French reseller that a new Mac Pro is coming in the spring - The Mac Pro was released in December. The New York Times is back with the curved glass iOS iWatch story (U: WSJ too) - Until or unless a single trace of a component for this device leaks, I consider the iWatch every bit as mythical and non-existent as the long-rumored but never seen Apple HDTV. Bloomberg's turn on Apple's iWatch: 'Over 100 product designers and growing working on wristwatch-like device' - Apple doesn't even have 100 product designers working for the whole company. Its team of designers is legendarily small and tight-knit. Analyst: Apple TV development event next month, 4.8-inch iPhone next year - Peter Misek makes yet another laughably incorrect prediction. Report: Apple to launch 11- and 13-inch Retina MacBook Air in Q3 - The MacBook Air was updated at WWDC, but it doesn't have a Retina Display. Foxconn reportedly halts hiring due to slow iPhone 5 production, resumes next month (for next iPhone?) - Foxconn itself denied this rumor. For some reason, the "IPhone 5 isn't selling well" meme was pretty strong throughout the first half of 2013. AAPL share price spikes on rumors of imminent stock split announcement - The stock didn't split. 9to5 Mac made a stab at being skeptical, but why even report this at all? It was obviously nonsense. Bloomberg: Apple to release its iWatch within 9 months - December 4 came and went with no iWatch. Good one, Bloomberg. Analyst reaffirms own iPhone 5S with fingerprint sensor & Smart Flash claims, hints at July launch, China Mobile variant - Wrong about the 5s launch date, wrong about the China Mobile variant, wrong about the China Mobile launch date. Wrong about the discontinuation of non-Retina MacBook Pros. Wrong about a tweaked iPod touch. Wrong about a tweaked Apple HDTV. "Typically reliable" analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, everyone! New iPads in April and iPhone 5S with better camera, faster chip in August? - Wrong on all counts. Apple to use fingerprint sensor to enhance the security of NFC mobile payments in next iPhone? Apple skipped including NFC technology in the iPhone yet again. Oops. AAPL Analyst Short of the day: Jefferies' Misek downgrades on expensive low cost iPhone, own casing color prediction unlikelihood - Misek incorrectly predicted multiple colors for the iPhone 5s (the 5c got them instead) and, like everyone else, whiffed it on his prediction of how much the iPhone 5c would cost. Digitimes says Apple is working on a 4K TV for either later this year or early next year - Predictably, Digitimes got this wrong. Rumor: Apple to announce a game controller at upcoming event? - Almost immediately "noped" by Jim Dalrymple. WSJ: Apple beginning production of next iPhone in Q2, 4-inch cheaper iPhone still on track for later in 2013, colors possible - The WSJ incorrectly predicted a summer launch and, once again, misclassified the iPhone 5c as a "cheap" model. Analyst: Apple HDTV coming this year with 'iRing' motion controller & 'mini iTV' second screen experience - This article proved once and for all that analyst Brian White is not even remotely (heh) worth taking seriously. 'iPhone 5S', cheaper iPhone to come in multiple new colors, July announcement? - Only one new color came out for the 5s, and it wasn't announced in July. iPhone 5S to reportedly come with 12-megapixel camera, improved low light mode - The iPhone 5s has an 8-megapixel camera. Budget iPhone rear shell leaked? - While this shell was probably real, the speculation that followed was all wrong: "The alleged budget iPhone will have an A5 processor like the iPad Mini with a 32nm diecast. It's also rumoured it will have a 3.5 inch retina screen, much like the 4S, but not as big as the iPhone 5 ... I've also discovered the factory producing this secretive project have confirmed the device will be available in Black, White, Blue, Red and Yellow." Noooope. Analyst: New MacBooks across the line expected at WWDC in June, iPad mini price drops - "Typically reliable" analyst Ming-Chi Kuo was wrong again. Only the MacBook Air was updated, and no "low-cost" iPad mini debuted. Bloomberg: Jony Ive's new software design role could lead to delays for iOS 7 - iOS 7 wasn't delayed. Apple to test low-cost iPhone in small volumes – (unlikely) supply chain claim - Digitimes is wrong again, sky is still blue. Will the low-cost iPhone in fact be a $350 mid-level handset? - Turns out the answer was no. WWDC 2013: Slimmer Retina MacBook Pro w/1080P camera and MacBook Air microphone improvements expected - Ming-Chi Kuo swings and misses again. "Reliable." Today's amusing analyst rumors ... the iRing is back, and Apple going patent-crazy over iOS 7 - "We're reporting these mainly for entertainment value," 9to5 Mac claims. Also, pageviews. Reuters: Apple building a $100 iPhone in a variety of colors, planning 5-inch iPhablets for next year - This pricing claim was so far off it's absurd. Three years later, DigiTimes still insists Apple will ditch Samsung for TSMC - Digitimes is incredibly wrong once again, but of course 9to5 Mac chooses to pass on their "report" anyway. Will the Plastic iPhone knock the iPhone 4S out of this year's free iPhone pattern? - Turns out the answer was no. WSJ: Apple struck deal this month with TSMC for iOS device chip production, beginning in 2014 - Any story published in 2013 predicting what will occur in 2014 is, by definition, unverifiable. Sketchy photos claim to show backplate for rumored low-cost iPhone, iPad 5 schematics - These colors are all wrong. "But maybe Apple was just testing colors" - nope, don't care. More alleged leaked photos of plastic iPhone shells now show blue variety - This photo was probably the real deal. But 9to5 Mac didn't think so: "While the colors are broadly consistent with those of the iPod touch/nano, and we'd expect to see differences between metal and plastic, those colors look rather garish even allowing for the poor lighting [...] the leaked shells just look a little cheap. Of course, the plastic iPhone is supposed to be cheap [...] the consensus view seems to be that it will be a mid-range handset with a likely price in the $300 to $350 range – perhaps even $400." The consensus view was totally wrong. 2013: The year of the personalized, colorful, mid-tier smartphone - Turns out instead 2013 was the year of inaccurately predicting that the iPhone 5c would be a mid-tier smartphone. Report vaguely hints at 'aggressive' iWatch team hires, late 2014 debut - Speculative product, 2014 date. There's no way to verify if this is accurate or not. Report: Upgraded spec, lighter iPad Mini expected later this year, 'almost bezel-free' Retina version next year - Absolutely every single detail in this Digitimes "report" was incorrect. Digitimes: Initial 'iPhone 5S' shipments to be constrained as fingerprint sensors hit low yield-rates - Digitimes gets no points for predicting sales constraints for a new iPhone, because demand always exceeds supply during the first month, no matter what. Report: Apple mulling $280M purchase of PrimeSense, the Israeli 3D body sensor firm behind Microsoft Kinect - Apple did eventually buy PrimeSense. But not until many months after this report, which PrimeSense itself denied. Rumored iPhone 5S fingerprint sensor more likely to be in the screen, not the home button - Wrong. Apple testing 13-inch iPad & bigger iPhone displays, says WSJ - There's absolutely no way to verify the veracity of this claim. You could just as easily claim that Apple is testing cybernetic implants. Analyst's predictions for 2013: New iPhones to be in short supply, Haswell iMacs/MacBook Pros arriving, no new iPad mini - Ming-Chi Kuo claimed the iPad mini wouldn't be updated in 2013 (wrong) and a Retina model wouldn't launch until March or April of 2013 (wrong). He also claimed iMac updates were coming in August (wrong) and updated MacBook Pros were coming in September (wrong). "Reliable." Apple has A6-based iPad mini without Retina display in the works - Actually, no. It doesn't. WSJ: Apple ordering Samsung displays for Retina iPad mini this year, new back colors possible - "Apple is apparently also considering multi-colored back plates for the iPad mini." Not so much. iPhone 5S to have convex sapphire home button that doubles as a fingerprint reader? - Ming-Chi Kuo expected the 5s Touch ID sensor to be convex rather than concave. The sensor is, in fact, flat. Swing and a miss again for this "accurate" analyst. Analyst suggests unlikely possibility of no Siri on iPhone 5C to reduce cannibalization - Gene Munster makes a claim that's so out of left field it's obviously not worth taking at face value. 9to5 Mac reported it anyway. Analyst predicts iPhone 5S with Gold option, larger F2.0 aperture camera and 128GB high-end - Ming-Chi Kuo got most of this right, but he got the 128 GB capacity for the iPhone 5s wrong. Analyst: US$400-500 iPhone 5C will hit China Mobile in Q3 and replace the iPhone 5 globally in Q4 - Ming-Chi Kuo got the 5c's price wrong, its debut date at China Mobile wrong, and the discontinuation date of the iPhone 5 wrong. "Reliable." Report: Apple negotiating w/ media companies for pay TV service, working on full-fledged TV set - Absolutely nothing else came out to corroborate this report. Approvals process will delay iPhone 5C launch in China until end of November – rumor - The iPhone 5c launched in China in September. Stock shortages suggest possible new iMac and Airport Express on the way - The iMac was updated. The AirPort Express was not. Canadian carrier Telus will discontinue 32 and 64GB iPhone 5 on September 28th, 16GB to remain on as mid-tier? - The iPhone 5 was discontinued entirely. KGI's Ming-Chi Kuo provides details on new iPads coming in Q4 - Ming-Chi Kuo continually insisted the new iPads would have an "A7X" processor. Both models have an A7 processor. WSJ: Apple testing larger iPhone screens, some up to six inches - There's no way to verify if this is true or not. People are saying the iPod classic dies this year...again - Apple still sells the iPod Classic. 2014 iPhone will sport 4.5-5 inch screen, says analyst Ming-Chi Kuo - While there's no way to verify this report, given the so-called "accuracy" of this analyst, I'm not betting any money on this claim. Will iPhone 5S act as an electronic wallet? Combined fingerprint/NFC patent suggests that it might - The iPhone 5s doesn't have NFC. Strike! New Apple TV in development, could arrive as soon as next month - No new Apple TV model debuted. Oops. Rumeur: Apple's next event to be held on October 15th? - Nope. It was October 22. Space Gray coming to an iPad Mini 2 near you? (Champagne too?) - Space Grey, yes. Gold, no. Apple claimed to be working with Quanta Computer to build larger iPad - Unverifiable rumor is unverifiable. Can Apple announce the rest of 2013′s products in just one event? - Turns out the answer was yes. Mostly because five of the 13 items on this list never saw the light of day. Chinese site shows two photos of claimed gold iPad Mini 2 with Touch ID - The iPad mini doesn't come in gold. Reuters: Retina iPad mini supplies will be constrained, full production now pushed into 2014 - "Full production" must have occurred well before 2014, because all models of the Retina iPad mini now ship within 24 hours. Report claims iPad 5 & Retina iPad mini will sport 8MP rear cameras w/ larger aperture - Ming-Chi Kuo is wrong again. The iPad's rear camera is still 5 megapixels. Report claims both likely & unlikely display changes for future Apple devices - Absolutely none of these claims can be verified, and none are expected until 2014. Questionable analyst roundup: 10M home automation iWatches? 12-inch MacBook Air and much more - In spite of recognising these analyst claims as "questionable," 9to5 Mac passed them on anyway. Coming from Apple in 2014: 12-inch Retina MacBook, sharper iPad, cheaper iMac? - None of these Ming-Chi Kuo claims for 2014 can be verified, and given his actual accuracy record, I'd expect no more than half of them to actually come true. Report: New MacBook Pros on sale Oct 24/25, iPads Oct 30/31, Mac Pro Nov 15 - All of these dates were wrong. Wall Street Journal backs up analyst reports that Apple is reducing component orders for iPhone 5c - None of these "iPhone 5c component orders reduced" reports have ever been independently verified. Apple event predictions from KGI: Thinner, lighter A7X iPad 5 w/improved cam but no gold or TouchID. Also A7 iPad Mini w/Retina, Haswell MacBook Pros - Ming-Chi Kuo was wrong again about the A7X and the 8-megapixel camera for the iPad. Can't win 'em all. Former Apple employee: Apple worked on Surface-style keyboard cover for iPad, could announce at 'haven't covered everything' event - No such product was announced. Sketchiest of Apple television rumors suggests 4K 55- & 65-inch screens next year at $1500-2500 - Not a chance. Another report claims short supply of Retina iPad mini due to display shortages from Sharp - There's no way of knowing if this report was correct or not, but given that it comes from Digitimes, the smart money is on "not." Apple working to slim its iWatch via intermittent Bluetooth LE connection? - Speculative post about purely speculative product. Bloomberg: Apple to introduce larger, curved screen iPhones in Q3 2014, enhanced pressure sensors for later models - Considering how often Bloomberg's claims about Apple's roadmap turn out to be inaccurate, let's just say I'm skeptical. Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo expects A7-based Apple TV in 2014, television set in 2015-2016 - Not content to predict Apple's roadmap for the next year, Ming-Chi Kuo stares into the sun long enough to divine Apple's plans a full three years into the future! What will he think of next? Report claims 12.9-inch panel for larger iPad already in production, release early next year - No way to verify if this is true or not. Yet. Now 4.9″ iPhone 6 prototype makes rumor rounds -Poll: what size are you hoping for? - Again, there's no way of verifying this claim. Opinion: Will Apple return to a single MacBook range next year? - Wrongheaded analysis is wrongheaded. Opinion: Is Apple headed toward eventual convergence of OS X and iOS? - Short answer? No. Long answer? Noooooooooooooo. 12.9-inch iPad rumor is back with launch date, early launch for larger size iPhone included - And just to round things out, another completely unverifiable claim from abysmally unreliable Digitimes. Khan said it best: "You should have let me sleep."
Rumor Roundup: An analyst who actually analyzes
If you ignore the stacks of, "Look at this Apple patent application we found, Apple must be building one of these," posts -- and I've chosen to -- then this week was relatively light on rumors. Two-thirds of Americans will own an iPhone by 2017, calculates analyst (9to5 Mac) Based solely on the headline, I was all set to rip this story a new one like I do every time some analyst decides to predict what the smartphone market will look like at some arbitrary future date. Then I saw the source was Horace Dediu, one of the few people actually worthy of the title "analyst", because his thinking includes actual analysis. Dediu's math seems sound. However, if there's one thing I learned from Asimov's Foundation series (not to mention real life), it's that you can't always accurately model the behaviour of large groups. Apple's 12.9-inch 'iPad Pro' reportedly coming in 2014 with 2K, 4K displays (BGR) "In a report that's something of a jumbled mess [but that we're going to reblog anyway, because pageviews] International Business Times claims to have some details on Apple's upcoming larger iPads." I've read through that "jumbled mess" of a report several times, and I can't find a single original bit of data in there. Everything I've seen is just an echo of what some other rumormonger said earlier. Samsung reportedly still very much present in iPhone's future (BGR) From the article: "The iPhone future is still not Samsung-free, Digitimes reports." Well, then. Since this is sourced from Digitimes, start placing your bets now on how long it takes before Apple devices have no Samsung-sourced components. The iPhone 5c may be a costly mistake for Apple (BGR) From the article: "it's hard to say whether the iPhone 5c is an out-and-out flop." It's apparently not difficult to call it a dud, however. Repeatedly. Endlessly. Perhaps even obsessively. Who knows what BGR's agenda is for continually trying to paint the iPhone 5c as a failure, but it bears repeating (as always): Until or unless Apple breaks down its iPhone sales by model, no one knows how many iPhone 5c units have sold. The "evidence" for this article's claim is laughable: It comes from an analyst who says that weak iPhone 5c sales are the reason Apple hasn't made a deal for iPhone sales with China Mobile. Except the company just did exactly that. Oops.
Rumor Roundup: Year of the iWatch
Apple's 'iWatch' Said to Arrive in October 2014 with Wireless Charging (MacRumors) Some Chinese site claims Apple will release the iWatch in October 2014. However, according to MacRumors "C Technology's rumor track record is mixed." This stab at credibility suffers somewhat a couple paragraphs earlier in this piece, where MacRumors uses a "report" from Digitimes (of all places) as "evidence" the iWatch will be released in mid-2014. Since this was the only rumor I could find this week, I decided to take a trip down memory lane regarding this perpetually "coming next year" product and consolidate some previous Roundup commentary on the iWatch. Some new comments with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight are appended. Just to give you an idea of how completely stupid the iWatch rumors have been this year, here's my compilation of the number of times various sources came up in support of this thing's potential existence. Note that this is probably a ground-floor estimate; I don't read absolutely every rumor that surfaces about Apple, because if I did, I wouldn't have enough live brain cells remaining to keep my heart from stopping. "People familiar with the matter" - 5 Analyst - 8 Digitimes - 2 Other Asian publication - 3 Rumor blog speculation - 3 Legitimate, verified news source - 0 February 2013 Apple Said to Have Team Developing Wristwatch Computer - Bloomberg Apple purportedly has a team of 100 "product designers" working on an iWatch. Small problem: haven't we heard over and over again that Apple has an extremely small product design team? There's Jonathan Ive, a handful of lieutenants, and... well, that's about it, isn't it? If Apple has 100 "product designers" working throughout the entire company, that's news to me. Maybe if you start lumping in the software teams the number starts getting higher, but in terms of hardware design we're generally given the impression that Apple has a tiny cadre of people in this area. Disruptions: Apple Is Said to Be Developing a Curved-Glass Smart Watch - NYTimes.com Despite the sensational headline and the supposedly aboveboard authority of the Times, this article doesn't really bring anything new to the table. Two people who are supposedly "familiar with the company's explorations" claim that "Apple is experimenting with wristwatch-like devices made of curved glass." I'm sure Apple experiments with lots of things, and the patents it applies for bear that out. Whether those products will ever find their way to store shelves is another matter entirely. I still think an "iWatch" is a niche product at best and a ridiculously useless bauble at worst, but that's without ever having seen leaked prototype components, much less a working model. Naturally, given the provenance of this rumor, the Internet ran wild with it, with several sites making it sound like the iWatch is all but inevitable. You know, just like they have with the Apple HDTV and a pile of other rumorware. March 2013 Apple's Planned 'IWatch' Could Be More Profitable Than TV - Bloomberg Bloomberg doubles down on its prediction that the iWatch will launch this year. Of course, lots of people have said the same thing about the Apple HDTV, and that's nowhere to be seen either. (I guess 2013 technically isn't over yet. Bloomberg still has a chance.) Apple's watch will run iOS and arrive later this year, say sources | The Verge The iWatch will supposedly run full iOS, according to The Verge's sources. However, those same sources say battery life issues are stymying Apple's efforts. (Same comment here; there's still a couple of weeks left before The Verge looks completely stupid for posting this.) Jony Ive Ordered Boxes Of Nike Watches - Business Insider Jony Ive supposedly ordered a bunch of Nike watches in the mid-2000s, which Bloomberg takes to mean he's been thinking about the iWatch for a long time. Hey, I'll bet Ive bought a car when he was 16 years old... BREAKING EXCLUSIVE: Jony Ive to design iCar Apple's HDTV reportedly delayed, iWatch may launch this year (BGR) Peter Misek is at it again: the Apple HDTV is supposedly "delayed" yet again and due to launch "sometime next year," and he gives the iWatch a 50/50 chance of launching this year. "Apple HDTV delayed until next year" is the headline that keeps on giving. It's like putting a readerboard sign in front of your restaurant that says "Free donuts tomorrow" -- you never need to pay off on the promise, because technically the board always says the donuts will be free at some future date. (Peter Misek admittedly only gave the iWatch a 50/50 chance of launching, which is still better odds than any of Peter Misek's predictions about Apple ever coming true.) April 2013 More signs point to 2013 Apple 'iWatch' launch (BGR) In this case, "signs" can be defined as some analyst's random ravings about Apple's future plans, with no evidence to support any of his claims. (Another analyst predicts a 2013 launch for the iWatch. *looks at nonexistent watch, looks up, raises eyebrow, taps foot impatiently*) May 2013 Apple's 'iWatch' to come in late 2014 with focus on biometrics, analyst says (AppleInsider) Some analyst says the iWatch won't come until late 2014. These guys have enough trouble accurately predicting what Apple will do three months in the future, much less a year and a half from now. This is also typical analyst behavior: make wild claims about some supposedly forthcoming Apple product for several months, then after no proof of its existence or imminent launch appears, make up some reason why the product was "delayed" until some date comfortably far in the future. Analysts have been playing this same game with the "Apple HDTV" for several years. (As far as I can tell, this is the turning point between "iWatch will launch in 2013" and "iWatch isn't coming until late next year.") July 2013 Apple files for 'iWatch' trademark in Japan for watch/handheld product (9to5 Mac) From the article: "With Apple seemingly amping up the regulation processes for launching a new product, it seems likely that Apple is moving towards a launch for its long-rumored wrist device sometime soon." Here's an alternate explanation: Apple has pre-emptively trademarked the name "iWatch" to stop Samsung or some other tragically unoriginal hacks from piggybacking off the well known "iDevice" branding by releasing a terrible smartwatch with that exact name. A look at some flexible batteries that could power iWatch (9to5 Mac) While this tech is cool, associating it with the so-called "iWatch" is a pretty big stretch. Remind me again how many credible reports have come out indicating Apple is building this thing? No, I said credible reports. No analysts, no "sources from the Asian supply chain," and no "people familiar with the matter." Is it a number greater than zero? (Spoiler alert: no.) Reportedly leaked Bluetooth roadmap hints at future iPhone, 'iWatch' features (AppleInsider) From the popular rumor blog destination of Non Sequitur City comes this... "report" is the charitable word for it, I suppose. Bluetooth SIG has mapped out some features it wants to roll out, and somehow that translates to "future Apple products will do all of this stuff." We get it, guys. You want to be able to claim "FIRST!" when it comes to predicting future Apple products. But at least be sensible about it. Apple 'Aggressively' Hiring for Smart Watch Project, Looking Toward Late 2014 Launch (MacRumors) This is neither the first time we've heard that Apple is "aggressively hiring" for this entirely hypothetical product, nor the first time that the always in-motion launch date has slipped farther outward. Here's a question: if Apple had never released the watch-like fifth-gen iPod nano, would we be buried under a mountain of stupid "iWatch" articles all these years later? September 2013 Apple projected to ship nearly 65M 'iWatch' units priced at $199 in first year (AppleInsider) Some analyst floats some nonsense numbers for a completely speculative product. For some reason, this is reported like it's actual news. Attention AppleInsider and the rest of you rumor blogs: please just accept that these so-called "analysts" know precisely Jacques-merde about Apple and stop polluting the Internet with their re-reported nonsense. Apple iWatch rumored for 2H 2014 launch, priced between $149-$229 (BGR) Hey, speaking of sources not worth paying the least bit of serious attention to, "Digitimes cites an analyst" --BZZZZT, super-duper-mega-ultra-fail. Next! October 2013 Apple is reportedly testing iWatch designs with flexible OLED displays (BGR) "According to a brief report from South Korean newspaper The Chosun Ilbo" -- sounds legit! "While there is still no firm sign from Cupertino that the company actually has a smartwatch in the works," don't let that stop us from speculating about it. Endlessly! And when this hypothetical, nonsensical product fails to materialize year after year, we can always claim that Apple has encountered manufacturing issues, or licensing problems, or any other excuse to cover up the fact that we have no idea what we're talking about and are completely making all of this up. November 2013 Apple working to slim its iWatch via intermittent Bluetooth LE connection? (9to5 Mac) "The question mark in the headline lets us retain our powers of legitimacy!" -9to5 Mac editors From the article: "One of the barriers to widespread adoption of smartwatches is that existing models are not exactly sleek." That's one of the barriers, yes. Another is that existing models suck. Another barrier is that no one has come up with a justifiable use case for a smartwatch. Like, at all. It sounds like something out of an episode of Pimp My Ride. "Yo dawg, I heard you like touchscreens, so now you got one you can wear on your wrist, and you can read your email without having to take your iPhone out of your pock- dude, where are you going? Come back!" Also, the "iWatch concept" image that heads this 9to5 Mac story makes me incredibly glad that it's Jonathan Ive who's doing design for Apple and not... not whoever this was. Ugggh. Rumor: LG nearing deal to supply 'iWatch' OLEDs, Samsung not a candidate (AppleInsider) Apple has shown zero interest in adopting OLED technology in any of its devices, and the iWatch is nothing more than an analyst's LSD trip. "Hard evidence supporting a near-future debut" for the iWatch "has yet to surface" according to AppleInsider. That's probably because the iWatch is and always has been a profoundly stupid idea. Analyst: iTV plans put on hold for wearables debut in 2014 (9to5 Mac) Kudos to 9to5 Mac for revealing the terrible provenance of this story right in the headline, thereby sparing the more seasoned and intelligent readers from bothering to click on it. Analysts don't know a damned thing about Apple's future plans.This particular analyst pulls off a truly spectacular whiff of a strikeout: he claims the Apple HDTV is delayed because Apple is focusing on launching the iWatch next year instead. Just so we're clear, an Apple product that has never been confirmed to exist and that makes no sense for Apple to produce has apparently been delayed so Apple can focus on a completely different unconfirmed product which also makes no sense for them to build or sell. I'd say money can't buy you analysis like that, but unfortunately, apparently it can. Report: Apple's iWatch will come in 1.3″ & 1.7″ models to accommodate men & women wrist sizes (9to5 Mac) From the article: "DisplaySearch has a bit of a hit and miss track record when it comes to Apple product launches." Mysteriously left out of the article: "But, pageviews, so here's a reprint of their latest vowel movement anyway." As for the claim itself... this is the kind of article that makes me wish I had a pet bird, just so I could print it out and use it to line the bottom of its cage. December 2013 Rumor: Apple taps Quanta to build bigger iPad, iWatch in 2014 (AppleInsider) "The latest rumors on Apple's future products were shared on Monday by DigiTimes" - BZZZT, wrong, next! Not only does AppleInsider do its readers a disservice by passing on garbage from DigiTimes, it goes on to spike its credibility by not writing a single word about DigiTimes' notoriously poor track record. Not even a single "sometimes reliable" qualifier for old times' sake. Do you guys seriously think we'll just forget about how godawful DigiTimes' accuracy is if you stop mentioning it? Okay. After all that, who's still convinced the iWatch is a real thing, one that actually has a legitimate chance of showing up on store shelves? Show of hands. Those of you with your hands up, please report to level 5, where you will be assigned a section of wall to bang your head against. Forever.
Rumor Roundup: Opinions are like *censored*
There was a grand total of one rumor this week. And here it is, in all its "glory": Apple reportedly testing 12.9-inch iPad with 2K and 4K resolution (BGR) "This is an unconfirmed rumor so far," BGR helpfully points out. Hey, guys? There's no other kind of rumor. Once a rumor is confirmed, it stops being a rumor. And by the way, I'm talking about actual confirmation from reputable sources, not some analyst saying the same thing as some other analyst. Lower-case "confirmed" and not upper-case, BGR-style "CONFIRMED," in other words. As for the claim itself? It's from some Chinese publication I've never heard of before today. Always a sign of reputable news. Now, just because there was only one rumor this week doesn't mean people didn't have plenty of dumb things to say about Apple. It's just that this week they were clearly marked as "opinion" rather than marketed as fact. I suppose that's a step in the right direction... only about 999,998 more steps to go. Opinion: Will Apple return to a single MacBook range next year? (9to5 Mac) In a word: No. But here are some more words. "The split between the Air and Pro ranges made sense for a whole bunch of reasons up to now," writes 9to5 Mac. Well, yes. And it still does. The MacBook Air is ultraportable at the expense of pure processing grunt. The MacBook Pro is still pretty damned portable, but it gives up a little of that portability in exchange for a desktop-class computing experience. But please, do go on and explain why that dichotomy no longer makes sense. "I am arguing that the difference between them today is quantitative rather than qualitative. For the vast majority of customers, even professional users, there's little you can do on a MBP that you can't do on a MBA." Here's the same argument applied to the iPad line: The iPad mini and iPad Air are absolutely identical in every way except for screen size. So that must mean there will only be one iPad in 2014, right...? Do you see how dumb this argument sounds now? "Put a Retina display into a MacBook Air, and use the wedge approach to slim down that MacBook Pro, and do you really have two distinct ranges?" Yes. Despite superficial, familial similarities on the exterior, a 13-inch MacBook Air is a distinctly different machine from a 13-inch MacBook Pro. To say nothing of the 15-inch model. More ports, more room for thermal dissipation (and therefore more powerful processors), better graphics cards, bigger batteries to power all this stuff. If anything, the differences are even more marked than the difference between an iPad mini and an iPad Air. "I'm confident there will be a single MacBook range by 2015." I'm confident you don't know what you're talking about. iPhone 5c is a flop? According to one report, it's just what Apple needed (BGR) Some analyst says 50 percent of iPhone 5c sales were generated from people defecting from Android smartphones. This is an intriguing claim to make, considering that Apple doesn't break out its iPhone sales by model. I'm totally guessing, but I'll bet a shiny dollar that this analysis firm got its data by polling customers rather than from any actual sales data. Of course, BGR couldn't resist putting "iPhone 5c" and "flop" in the same sentence, because that's the drum it's been beating all along: Apple's not-so-cheap "cheap" iPhone is a market failure, somehow, even though we don't know how many have been sold, because reasons. Opinion: Is Apple headed toward eventual convergence of OS X and iOS? (9to5 Mac) Here's another opinion piece from 9to5 Mac that can easily be answered with a single word: no. "Think back to 2006," the author suggests. Mmkay. I was living in Cleveland (*shudder*), in my final year at Kent State University. I'd been married for a year to a woman I eventually came to hate more than anyone I've ever known, and -- oh, wait. We're taking a trip down tech memory lane. "Will it continue to make sense for Apple to have two different platforms for Macs and iDevices, or will they eventually merge into a single operating system for all device types?" It seems like at least once every six months someone drags this dead horse out of the abattoir and gives it another whack. Here's the simple breakdown: Macs running OS X can do things that iPhones and iPads running iOS can't. That fact matters to an increasingly smaller segment of the market, but it remains a fact nonetheless. And as long as Apple needs people to develop apps for iOS, there will always be a market for Macs running an operating system that offers more functionality than iOS ever will. "The company formerly known as Apple Computer, Inc, is no longer a computer company: it's a phone and tablet company that also makes computers. It's no coincidence that it changed its name to Apple, Inc, in the year that the iPhone was launched." This observation didn't qualify as pithy in 2007, and it seems downright obtuse in 2013. By the way - (lowers voice to a hushed whisper) - iPhones and iPads are computers. "Of course, the post-PC era doesn't mean that Macs are doomed." Inexplicably, this sentence comes in the middle of this piece. It goes on (and on) for another 14 paragraphs. "We have to accept that there will be at least some iOS-ification of OS X." Someone has apparently been in a coma for the past few years, because there's already been enough "iOS-ification" of OS X that variations on this exact article have been published thousands of times already. "The worry, of course, is that OS X gets dumber with every release, that Macs become less and less capable as they are pitched more and more towards consumption rather than creation." Mavericks sure seems a lot "smarter" than Mountain Lion did, and Mountain Lion was a hell of a lot better than Lion. As for Macs being "more towards consumption rather than creation," let's not forget that iWork and iLife apps are free with any new Mac purchase. That seems like a pretty clear message from Apple: "Macs are made for making great stuff. Go do it." "How far do I think it will go? I certainly don't think we'll end up with a single platform anytime soon. I hesitate to say 'if ever,' as ever is a pretty long time. I also don't think those of us who love our Macs need panic." Bozhe moi, what was the point of this article then? I don't think I've ever seen someone so efficiently torpedo their own argument before. *slow clap* Forbes says Apple is fading fast and Microsoft will overtake it in 3 years -- here's our take (BGR) "At some point, be it sometime in the next few years or sometime in the next few decades, Apple will no longer be on top. It is inevitable. The question countless industry watchers try to answer, of course, is when." On a long enough timeline, Apple is DOOMED. "If you look at the numbers, the Windows Phone is the fastest growing smartphone platform," claims some guy from Forbes. That's true, but meaningless with sales numbers as low as Microsoft's. They could sell a million phones one quarter and two million the next, then claim their sales doubled. Meanwhile, Apple chuckles and sells 35 million iPhones in three months. "The numbers don't lie, but they also don't tell the whole story," BGR says. They certainly don't. For one thing, Microsoft doesn't have even a whiff of a clue what it's doing in the smartphone market. "The issue has always been a lack of execution and compelling differentiation," according to BGR, and that's been true of Microsoft pretty much ever since Ballmer took over as CEO. Since then, Microsoft has been the anti-Apple, squeaking out the occasional hit here and there (Windows XP, Windows 7, Xbox 360) while churning out stinker after stinker the rest of the time (read: pretty much everything else Microsoft ever released under Ballmer). Microsoft's straits aren't as dire as Apple's were in the mid-90s, but it's still going to take a Jobs-calibre CEO to turn the company into anything better than the monolithic dinosaur it's become over the past decade. As for "overtaking" Apple in three years? I think Microsoft should be overjoyed if, by this time in 2016, it's just managed to hold on to what it has today.
Rumor Roundup: PrimeSense nonsense
This week was predictably light on rumors, and the rumors themselves were predictably light on facts. PrimeSense tech seen powering gesture controls for future Apple television products (AppleInsider) As soon as the PrimeSense buy was confirmed, you knew this had to be coming - speculative nonsense from some analyst who's all, "Hey, PrimeSense makes the Kinect. And that's hooked into televisions. So Apple must be building a TV!" This analyst doesn't expect Apple to release a TV in 2014. Which is convenient, because by the time 2015 rolls around and Apple doesn't release a TV that year either, we'll have all forgotten about this guy's claims. But today we feast on pageviews, my brothers and sisters! Rumor: Apple taps Quanta to build bigger iPad, iWatch in 2014 (AppleInsider) "The latest rumors on Apple's future products were shared on Monday by DigiTimes" - BZZZT, wrong, next! Not only does AppleInsider do its readers a disservice by passing on garbage from DigiTimes, it goes on to spike its credibility by not writing a single word about DigiTimes' notoriously poor track record. Not even a single "sometimes reliable" qualifier for old times' sake. Do you guys seriously think we'll just forget about how godawful DigiTimes' accuracy is if you stop mentioning it? Apple's Plans to Enhance Touch ID with Trackpad Capabilities and Display Integration Revealed (MacRumors) Source: An actual Apple patent application. Claims: completely believable and not at all hyper-speculative. I'll put this one in the "plausible" rumor box - right after I clear out months worth of cobwebs. The reason Apple bought PrimeSense may have nothing to do with an iTV (BGR) Really? Do tell, BGR. Enlighten us what Apple's PrimeSense buy actually means. I'm sure you've sourced this story well and you'll - hahaha, it's getting harder all the time to keep a straight face when I write stuff like that. Anyway, some analyst thinks Apple's going to use motion controls for Maps. Given all the complaining that's been taking place over Apple Maps since it launched, I can think of one gesture in particular the app will probably try its best to ignore. Rumor: Retina iPad mini bottlenecks ease quickly, production already exceeding first-gen model (AppleInsider) Another article sourced from DigiTimes, the cloaca of technology news. And another instance where AppleInsider doesn't bother to clarify that the "source" of this story has a success percentage only slightly better than the Soviet Union's multiple failed attempts to land probes on Mars.
Rumor Roundup: The spice must flow
Very few rumors came out this week, a fact for which I'm actually quite grateful. With all the other projects I'm balancing right now, I don't think I could've handled a week of 20-plus rumors all lined up and crying out to be debunked. Dear rumor blogs: please keep it down to a dull roar between now and the end of the year. Sincerely, etc. Rumor: Major Foxconn factory to cease iPhone 5c production, focus on Apple's iPhone 5s (AppleInsider) Oh dear, sounds like bad news for Apple. I wonder who the source of this report is... "Taiwanese publication DigiTimes" - really, AppleInsider, et al? After all this time, you still haven't learned not to take anything Digitimes says seriously? I know the old saying about being unable to teach an old dog new tricks, but this is kind of like having an old dog who runs out into traffic, gets clipped by a car, spends six months in canine traction, then once healed up immediately heads straight for the busiest intersection in town. BGR's take on the same story, from the same source, is even more delightfully brain dead: More evidence suggests that the iPhone 5c is a dud (BGR) Digitimes apparently counts as "evidence" if you're BGR, and a device that has sold millions of units since its launch also apparently counts as a "dud." Since Apple doesn't break down its iPhone sales by model, all these endless speculative pieces about how the iPhone 5c is flaming out in the market are absolutely hilarious. As for the source of this "evidence," let me break it down for you, guys: Digitimes is not a reputable source of news relating to Apple. Ever. Still not getting it? How about this: Digitimes = wrong, always. Period. I can tell by the drool that you still don't understand. I give up. Report claims 12.9-inch panel for larger iPad already in production, release early next year (9to5 Mac) Expect another six months of stories like this, sourced from Asian publications citing "sources in the supply chain." Don't expect to see any of these stories actually pan out. Also don't expect the rumor blogs to own up to their terrible track record after citing dozens of reports like this. Larger-Screen iPhone Rumors Continue with 4.9-Inch iPhone 6, iPhone 5c Successor (MacRumors) Chinese site you've never heard of before today makes grandiose claims about the screen size of an iPhone that likely won't be publicly announced until September of next year. Rumor blogs repost this "news" endlessly, people click on it, ad impressions are served, and the spice flows. The spice must flow. Apple Continues Work on Liquidmetal Alloys for Use in Future Products (MacRumors) From the article (paraphrased): "Apple has been rumored to be experimenting with [...] Liquidmetal ever since [...] 2010." And three years later, despite multiple rumors the company was going to release a Liquidmetal-based iPhone, the only product Apple currently makes that's made of this material is the little SIM tool that comes in the iPhone package. In fact, this article seriously seems like someone at MacRumors just dusted off one of those original 2010 articles and shifted the dates around. But at least it's not sourced from Digitimes. I'll give it that.
Rumor Roundup: 'The best Apple analyst on the planet'
I learned two things this week thanks to the rumor blogs. First, one unannounced and unverified Apple product can be "delayed" so Apple can focus on a completely different unannounced and unverified product. Second, I discovered who has taken the coveted title of "the best Apple analyst on the planet." Yes, apparently there is such a thing -- at least according to people who don't bother with fiddling small things like fact checking. Alleged cuts to iPhone 5c orders cited as Apple supplier Pegatron's profits disappoint (AppleInsider) From the article: "Two different major news organizations reporting on Pegatron's earnings on Monday both cited unnamed sources as saying that Apple has cut orders for the iPhone 5c." Mmkay. But also from the article: "Last week, it was reported that Apple is actually adding new suppliers for both the iPhone 5c and iPad mini to boost production in 2014." Okay, make up your mind. Which is it? Is the iPhone 5c a massive "disappointment" or not? "Speculation about iPhone 5c sales is partially driven by the fact that Apple does not break down sales figures for specific models, citing competitive reasons." So, basically, no one outside of Apple actually has the slightest clue how many iPhone 5c units the company has sold. But let's all speculate endlessly anyway, because pageviews. CONFIRMED: Apple will launch completely redesigned 4.7-inch and 5.5-inch iPhones next year (BGR) Although I already covered this rumor in last week's Roundup, I decided to include it here for BGR's decidedly unique, all-caps take on the story. Anyone who thinks a report sourced from Bloomberg "confirms" anything about Apple's future plans would do well to browse through the Daring Fireball archives from this week - John Gruber found several examples of Bloomberg fan fiction about supposedly forthcoming Apple products that failed to coalesce into reality. Analyst: iTV plans put on hold for wearables debut in 2014 (9to5 Mac) Kudos to 9to5 Mac for revealing the terrible provenance of this story right in the headline, thereby sparing the more seasoned and intelligent readers from bothering to click on it. Analysts don't know a damned thing about Apple's future plans.This particular analyst pulls off a truly spectacular whiff of a strikeout: he claims the Apple HDTV is delayed because Apple is focusing on launching the iWatch next year instead. Just so we're clear, an Apple product that has never been confirmed to exist and that makes no sense for Apple to produce has apparently been delayed so Apple can focus on a completely different unconfirmed product which also makes no sense for them to build or sell. I'd say money can't buy you analysis like that, but unfortunately, apparently it can. Apple to Begin A-Series Chip Production at GlobalFoundries Facility in New York (MacRumors) A newspaper in upstate New York claims to have knowledge of a deal Apple has signed with a chip fabricator who operates a local foundry, according to "a source close to the company." I'm kind of getting the same vibe off this that I get off of "industry publication" news from "the Far East" - namely, that there's probably not much chance this will actually happen the way it's been reported. Analyst Ming-Chi Kuo expects A7-based Apple TV in 2014, television set in 2015-2016 (9to5 Mac) "Drop everything: Ming-Chi Kuo said some stuff about Apple." -Apple rumor blog editors From the article: "Ever since hearing that Steve Jobs had 'cracked' the TV industry, Apple fans have been waiting for the day the company would release an actual television set." It's a good thing autonomic reflexes eventually kick in, because otherwise you (and Gene Munster) would have suffocated long ago holding your breath for an Apple HDTV to appear in the market. "Ming-Chi Kuo today noted that an updated Apple TV box running on Apple's new A7 processor is expected in 2014" - sounds reasonable to me - "with an actual television set to follow in 2015 or 2016" -- hahaha, not a chance. This is also a prime example of an analyst making claims that, even if they fail to pan out, won't hurt his "track record" because no one will remember by then. "Gene Munster said today that he also believes we will see an Apple-created television set soon, though his estimate puts the release in 2014." Gene Munster says a lot of things. He's been saying them for years. Moving along... "All of these developments seem to corroborate the idea that Apple is indeed working on a television set," 9to5 Mac claims. Really? Please speak to your nearest university's Latin professor and ask him what "non sequitur" means. Report: Apple's iWatch will come in 1.3″ & 1.7″ models to accommodate men & women wrist sizes (9to5 Mac) From the article: "DisplaySearch has a bit of a hit and miss track record when it comes to Apple product launches." Mysteriously left out of the article: "But, pageviews, so here's a reprint of their latest vowel movement anyway." As for the claim itself... this is the kind of article that makes me wish I had a pet bird, just so I could print it out and use it to line the bottom of its cage. The best Apple analyst on the planet says Retina iPad mini will be impossible to find this holiday season (BGR) BGR has a strange habit of using different headlines in its RSS feed compared to what shows up in its articles. In RSS, it laughably calls Ming-Chi Kuo "the best Apple analyst on the planet," while the actual article's headline ends up being a more typically doom-n-gloom affair that starts with "Bad news, Apple fans." *sad trombone* "Ming-Chi Kuo [...] is likely the most reliable industry watcher on the planet when it comes to Apple," BGR opines. To that I will simply say, [citation needed]. My own review of his track record over the past several months showed him to have an accuracy level lower than random chance. If that's the "best Apple analyst on the planet," then it's no wonder the current state of the Apple rumor scene is so hilariously obtuse. Apple Reportedly Set to Acquire Israeli 3D Body Sensing Firm PrimeSense (MacRumors) Are you rumormongers absolutely sure about this story this time? Because you all got it wrong in July. PrimeSense itself had only typical PR-speak to give in response to request for comments on the supposed deal -- with the exception of the last sentence, which I find to be brilliantly pithy: "We do not comment on what any of our partners, customers or potential customers are doing and we do not relate to rumors or re-cycled rumors." I don't know who wrote that, but I want to buy this person a beer.
Rumor Roundup: Playing catchup
Not many rumors came out this week. I guess most of the analysts were off at their annual retreat in New Mexico, out of their gourds on peyote and brainstorming what sort of egregious nonsense they'll try to pass off as "analysis" over the coming months. Rumor: Foxconn testing production of larger-screened iPad for 2014 release (AppleInsider) Chinese site you've never heard of before today makes completely unverifiable claim about Apple product whose existence is pure speculation. Stop me if you've heard this before. Apple Adds Suppliers to Boost Smartphone, Tablet Production (Wall Street Journal) "People familiar with the supply chain" are claiming that Apple is diversifying its overseas suppliers. I'd sure like to believe them, but I no longer trust the Wall Street Journal or its sources unless there's an Apple event within the next 48 hours. Analyst predicts two iPhone releases per year after meeting with Apple's CEO, CFO (AppleInsider) What some analyst "believes" or "predicts" very rarely aligns with what Apple eventually ends up doing. And by "very rarely" I mean "almost never." Since this analyst works for a big-name company and gets to ask questions during Apple's quarterly earning calls, though, let's all pretend her predictions are newsworthy. iOS 7.0.4 Activity Ramping Up at Apple Ahead of Next Minor Software Update (MacRumors) Everybody hold your breath for bug fixes and stability improvements! Apple working to slim its iWatch via intermittent Bluetooth LE connection? (9to5 Mac) "The question mark in the headline lets us retain our powers of legitimacy!" -9to5 Mac editors From the article: "One of the barriers to widespread adoption of smartwatches is that existing models are not exactly sleek." That's one of the barriers, yes. Another is that existing models suck. Another barrier is that no one has come up with a justifiable use case for a smartwatch. Like, at all. It sounds like something out of an episode of Pimp My Ride. "Yo dawg, I heard you like touchscreens, so now you got one you can wear on your wrist, and you can read your email without having to take your iPhone out of your pock- dude, where are you going? Come back!" Also, the "iWatch concept" image that heads this 9to5 Mac story makes me incredibly glad that it's Jonathan Ive who's doing design for Apple and not... not whoever this was. Ugggh. Rumor: Delayed Retina iPad mini launch blamed on LCD burn-in issues (AppleInsider) This story is heavy on technical details, which strongly suggests it's not the typical BS that circulates out of the Far East publications. Apple Said Developing Curved IPhone Screens, New Sensors (Bloomberg) "A person familiar with the plans" claims next year's iPhones will have glass that curves downward at the edges and - okay, I'm gonna stop right there. The next iPhone probably isn't coming out until September of next year. That's over 10 months away. No one claiming to have knowledge of the next iPhone actually has any clue what they're talking about. And by the way, seriously? The iPhone 5S came out two months ago, and the rumormongers are already jumping up and down claiming to have knowledge of the next model? That's philosophically equivalent to decking out a retail chain in Christmas decorations in February. Some analyst quoted in the story says, "Screen size is one of the things where Apple has to catch up to the Android camp." Like it's a case of Apple being incapable of making an iPhone with a bigger screen, rather than it being a case of the company not blindly following the latest idiotic trend in tech and making an iPhone 90 percent the size of an iPad mini just to appease analysts and checklist freaks. No, Apple has to "catch up" to the Android camp, because just look at how pathetically small its iPhone screens are. Tiny four-inch screens on a device that's selling by the millions every week. Stick a fork in Apple, it's done. "The new Apple handsets are still in development and plans haven't been completed," according to Bloomberg's source. Well, duh. I doubt Apple will finalize the next iPhone's design until the first quarter of next year. Meanwhile, when this story turns out to be utter nonsense next year, Bloomberg can just do the typical rumormonger dance and say Apple changed its plans in mid-year. Extra bonus points if they can spin it in a way that makes it sound like insurmountable technical issues - issues that darling Samsung has handily solved, of course - are what's preventing Apple from fulfilling analysts' fantasies. Ten more months of this until the next iPhone. I picked a bad week to quit drinking.
Rumor Roundup: What's your favorite scary headline?
Now that Apple has presumably announced everything it's going to sell in 2013, that must mean the deafening roar of dumb rumors will die down for awhi -- hahahaa, no, it's just as bad as ever. And as a special treat, rumor blogs are also putting on their own "analyst" hats and pretending they know what they're talking about when it comes to Apple's future plans. It's kind of adorable and heartbreaking at the same time, like a puppy with a concussion. Staggering around... trying to find his way. You keep it up, little guy. You -- *sniff* -- you keep it up. More evidence suggests that the iPhone 5c is a dud (BGR) BGR's definition of "evidence" is as scanty as it always is when it comes to their sources, and its "analysis" (heavy sarcasm quotes) is predictably dumb. "If [Apple] expected that a cheaper iPhone would sell at equal or higher volurmes than the iPhone 5s, then it was sorely mistaken," BGR notes. Well, I guess Apple will have to cry itself to sleep on a bed fashioned from the billions of dollars it's making off the more expensive iPhone 5s, then. BGR also says this result is "somewhat surprising given that the 5c was billed by many as a lower cost alternative that would appeal to more budget minded consumers." In other words, they're still clinging to the notion that the 5c was supposed to be the long-rumored "low cost" iPhone rather than the mid-tier model that actually debuted. (Aside: it still warms my heart that the iPhone 5c's pricing made two years worth of analyst ranting and ravings about a "low-cost" iPhone designed to chase after market share at the expense of profit look like the pure stupidity that it always was. Ahhh, the afterglow.) Laying all that aside, please tell me how after only two months on the market an iPhone that accounts for nearly 2 percent of all iPhones counts as a "dud." We're talking about hundreds of millions of devices out there. Two percent of hundreds of millions is still a hell of a lot. Opinion: What can we expect from the elusive Apple Television? (9to5 Mac) This entire piece is sure to give Gene "Where's my Apple HDTV?" Munster his weekly jolt, but for the rest of us, it's pure... what's a more polite word for -- (Let's go with "fantasy" here, sir. --Ed) The question no one ever seems to ask regarding a possible Apple HDTV is, "Why?" Why would Apple enter a saturated, low-margin, low-yield market? The iPhone succeeded in the mobile phone market because it brought something truly new to the landscape, and Apple continues to benefit from the iPhone because people still generally view mobile phones as "disposable" tech to be renewed every 2-3 years. How many people do you know who are swapping out their televisions that often? People have been expecting Apple to produce an HDTV for years, but it keeps not happening. I suspect it's because Apple knows better. Too bad virtually no one else seems capable of catching a clue. Rumor: LG nearing deal to supply 'iWatch' OLEDs, Samsung not a candidate (AppleInsider) Apple has shown zero interest in adopting OLED technology in any of its devices, and the iWatch is nothing more than an analyst's LSD trip. "Hard evidence supporting a near-future debut" for the iWatch "has yet to surface" according to AppleInsider. That's probably because the iWatch is and always has been a profoundly stupid idea. Rumor: Big-screen 'iPhone 6' coming Sept. 2014, Apple to focus on one-handed use (AppleInsider) No one outside of Apple has any idea what the 2014 iPhone will be like. Period. The source of this story, "Japanese magazine Mac Fan" is just trolling for page views, and AppleInsider (among many other rumor blogs) is just doing the same by passing it along as though it's the least bit credible. How far can fanboys carry Apple? (BGR) BGR does us all a favor by using the F-word in its headline, which immediately outs the article as completely devoid of anything approaching intellectual value. Aside from the fact that this is (of course) sourced from a know-nothing analyst, anyone who is still claiming that Apple's profits are driven or maintained by "fanboys" is simply not paying even the most rudimentary attention to the market. The "fanboy" argument might have made sense in 2007 or 2008, when iPhone sales were in the mere millions. It makes absolutely zero sense now that Apple sells 30 million or more iPhones every quarter. Apple's success is thoroughly and absolutely mainstream. It has been ever since the first time the company sold ten million iPods in a year. Apple's 100+ billion dollar stockpile of cash has nothing to do with "fanboys" and everything to do with normal human beings who don't give a rip about your pathetic attempts to stereotype them. Accept it. Period. Target takes a guess at Retina iPad mini launch date: Thursday, Nov. 21st (9to5 Mac) From the article: "We believe this is more than likely a speculative date as retailers like Target don't usually get such early information." Several lifetimes ago, I used to work for Target. I can guarantee the company has absolutely zero concrete information on when the Retina iPad mini will be available. iOS 7: The perfect mobile platform for murderers (BGR) This has to be the link-baitiest headline on the link-baitiest blog in the history of ever. "Ok, so iOS 7 isn't the most beloved software Apple has ever released," BGR claims, which follows in their time-honored tradition of making broad statements that completely fly in the face of the facts. If iOS 7 is so controversial or "unloved," then why is it that two-thirds of all iOS users are running it on their devices less than two months after its launch? Worse for BGR's rapidly fading credibility, the spoof video they use as a source for this story has absolutely nothing to do with iOS 7 itself. The devices in the video are all indeed running the latest version of iOS, but the video consists of a collection of traditional horror movie tropes related to mobile phones rather than anything specifically related to iOS 7. Run! The stupidity is coming from inside the house!!!
Rumor Roundup: iPad-slash-Mac event postmortem
Apple put an end to months of analyst "will they or won't they" handwringing at the recent iPad/Mac event when it did, indeed, unveil an updated iPad mini with a Retina display. As a direct consequence, we have an answer to the question: just how reliable is a "reliable" analyst? Let's find out. Nope New low-cost iPad mini expected to debut alongside Retina model in 2014 (AppleInsider) Source: The rumour blogs' favourite "accurate" analyst, Ming-Chi Kuo of KGI Securities. We'll be hearing more from him later. Lots more. Read this piece and try to find a single thing Kuo got correct. Apple has A6-based iPad mini without Retina display in the works (9to5 Mac) Source: "References in the iOS 7 SDK sent to us by a developer." The iPad mini skipped the A6 entirely, going from A5 straight to A7. And, as we all know, the updated model has a Retina display. A7X-Based iPad and iPad Mini Expected to Launch in 4Q 2013, Lower-Cost A6 iPad Mini to Follow in 2014 (MacRumors) Source: "KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, who has a fairly solid track record (sic) in predicting Apple's product plans" There is no such thing as an A7X chip in the new iPads, and the "low-cost iPad mini without a Retina display" is - surprise - just the first-gen iPad mini. New report suggests iPad 5 and Retina iPad mini could get fingerprint scanners (BGR) Source: Digitimes. SHOCKER: Digitimes gets another one wrong. Can Apple announce the rest of 2013′s products in just one event? (9to5 Mac) Source: "Analysis" is probably the polite term for it. Apple answered the question this article's headline posed with a definitive "yes." Retina display-toting iPad mini may not ship with 'iPad 5' this year, report says (AppleInsider) Source: IHS iSuppli Unless Apple misses its late November launch target for the Retina iPad mini, this report is dead wrong. Remember, kids: "supply-chain checks" aren't an accurate barometer for what's happening with Apple's product line. LEAK -- Retina iPad mini pictured in gold with Touch ID fingerprint scanner (BGR) Source: Sketchy Chinese website. And probably Photoshop. The iPad mini isn't available in gold. My eyes are eternally grateful. Reuters: Retina iPad mini may not launch in 2013 due to supply constraints (AppleInsider) Source: "Supply chain checks" Another publication relies on supply chain checks as its source and ends up with egg on its face. Report claims iPad 5 & Retina iPad mini will sport 8MP rear cameras w/ larger aperture (9to5 Mac) Source: "often reliable (sic) KGI analyst Ming-Chi Kuo" Neither of the new iPads have this camera hardware. Wrong again. Bad news, Apple fans: New report claims no new Retina iPad mini will be unveiled next week (BGR) Source: Analyst Brian White. "Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Brian White has had his fair share of hits and misses over the years," BGR points out in the opener. Chalk up one more miss... oops, all out of chalk. Rumor: Amazon's French and German sites suggest new Apple TV coming Oct. 23 (AppleInsider) Source: Amazon's French and German sites. No new Apple TV hardware launched. Partial credit Analyst's predictions for 2013: New iPhones to be in short supply, Haswell iMacs/MacBook Pros arriving, no new iPad mini (9to5 Mac) Source: "Analyst Ming-Chi-Kuo, who has a fairly strong track record (sic) in predicting future Apple products" iPhones are indeed in short supply. Haswell Macs did indeed launch. But Kuo once again completely whiffed it with his iPad predictions. Apple event predictions from KGI: Thinner, lighter A7X iPad 5 w/improved cam but no gold or TouchID. Also A7 iPad Mini w/Retina, Haswell MacBook Pros (9to5 Mac) Source: Ming-Chi Kuo (again) Kuo abruptly contradicted himself in the weeks leading up to the iPad event and said the iPad mini would get a Retina display. He therefore got much of this revised guesswork correct, but he still incorrectly predicted an A7X processor for the full-sized iPad and updated camera hardware. Rumor: Updated MacBook Pros to arrive in late Oct., new Mac Pro in mid Nov. (AppleInsider) Source: Some French website. They got it half right: MacBook Pro updates came out in late October, but the Mac Pro isn't coming until December. Yep Rumor: Apple to ship Haswell-powered Retina MacBook Pros in October (AppleInsider) Source: China Times. Notably, this contradicted "well-connected analyst" Ming-Chi Kuo, who had expected the new MacBook Pros to be introduced in September. Someone pull this guy out of the game, he can't pitch. Apple's Next iPad Mini Will Likely Have 'Retina' Display From Samsung (Wall Street Journal) Next iPad Takes After Thin, Light Mini (Wall Street Journal) The Wall Street Journal has two good guesses during this rumor cycle. I'm stunned. Apple's OS X Mavericks release planned for end of October (9to5 Mac) Source: "Sources with knowledge of the launch plans" Looks like those sources were right. Apple expected to introduce redesigned Smart Cover alongside slimmer 5th-gen iPad (AppleInsider) Source: Analyst Brian White. It irks me having to award points to this guy, because it doesn't take a genius to say, "Hmm, the next iPad is going to be a slightly different size from the current one... that probably means new Smart Covers." But I'm trying to be fair here. Like iPad 3, new iPad mini could be technically thicker to fit Retina Display (9to5 Mac) Source: Macotakara. Turns out the new iPad mini is indeed slightly thicker than its predecessor. And it seems everyone is still too shocked over the device being in virtually every respect a shrunk-down version of the iPad Air to remember to complain about this. Next-generation iPad dimensions reveal sleeker design (TUAW) Source: "A reputable case manufacturer" TUAW's specs: 240.1 x 169.6 x 7.5 millimeters Actual specs: 240 x 169.5 x 7.5 millimeters Considering the height and width are both off by only a single micrometer, I'll give this one to you, Mr Sande. Which is a good thing, because I really wasn't looking forward to a 15-hour flight to Colorado to beat you with that herring. I know I'm shouting into a hurricane here, but a post-mortem of just three months worth of iPad rumors definitively shows one thing: analyst predictions about what Apple will or will not release are worthless. Even the analysts widely touted as "accurate" are anything but, and the few things they do get right can easily be chalked up to following the logical patterns that Apple itself has established. In short, it bears repeating until it finally gets through everyone's neutronium-lined skulls: analysts have no idea what they're talking about when they're talking about Apple. Nothing they say is newsworthy. Stop re-publishing everything they say unless you want to keep on looking as foolish as you already do.
Rumor Roundup: Bite the hand that feeds you
Here's what we know for certain about Apple's upcoming event on October 22: Apple will hold an event on October 22. Here's what many suspect Apple will announce at that event: The fifth-generation iPad, drawing design cues from the iPad mini A second-generation iPad mini, which may or may not have a Retina display Launch date for OS X Mavericks Launch date for the redesigned Mac Pro If you've got anything other than that on your Apple Event Bingo scorecard... best of luck to you. Meanwhile, let's see if there's any last minute "insights" from the rumor scene. (Spoiler: if you've been following Apple rumors for any appreciable length of time, you'll know why I put "insights" inside sarcasm quotes.) Apple expected to introduce redesigned Smart Cover alongside slimmer 5th-gen iPad (AppleInsider) Some analyst thinks the next iPad's Smart Cover will have different dimensions than the existing version, "based on conversations with Chinese and Taiwanese suppliers." This analyst's track record has been shaky at best; unfortunately, he's probably right this time given the expected redesign of the full-size iPad's chassis, which means at least another six months of rumor blogs spreading every word he says like it came straight from Apple executives. Like iPad 3, new iPad mini could be technically thicker to fit Retina Display (9to5 Mac) "Technically" thicker? That's the best kind of thicker! The next iPad mini will supposedly be 0.3 millimeters thicker to accommodate the bigger battery necessary to drive a higher-powered Retina display, which 9to5 Mac says is "hardly noticeable." We'll see how hardly noticeable it is when/if this actually happens; considering how gibberingly mad various bloggers went when the iPad 3 was 0.6 mm thicker and a handful of grams heavier than the iPad 2, I'm guessing anyone paid to gin up anti-Apple news at any cost definitely will notice. Bad news, Apple fans: New report claims no new Retina iPad mini will be unveiled next week (BGR) Bad news, BGR fans: this new report comes from a notoriously inaccurate analyst who contradicts claims from AllThingsD, a far more reliable source of news relating to all things Apple. Rumor: Updated MacBook Pros to arrive in late Oct., new Mac Pro in mid Nov. (AppleInsider) A French website you've never heard of makes launch date claims about unreleased Apple products. No proof, no evidence. We're just supposed to take their word for it, I guess? Apple's Dual iPhone Strategy in Doubt (Wall Street Journal) Buried within this doom 'n' gloom piece is this tidbit: "The reduced orders could indicate weak demand, or could signal that Apple wanted to ensure adequate supply of the 5C so that potential buyers, who were more likely to be switching from competing phones, didn't have to walk out of a store empty-handed." Assuming that the supplier info actually points to a drop in production of the iPhone 5c –- which is by no means guaranteed, since Tim Cook himself said supply chain info doesn't paint a complete picture –- the above paragraph is the only part of the WSJ's piece that seems like it strikes close to the truth. Apple's supply chain is agile enough that it can increase or decrease production of its units in virtually immediate response to the ebb and flow of demand. Rather than what many retailers do, which is create an oversupply of units to keep shelves stocked even during times of lowered demand, Apple generally follows a "just-in-time" model for production. If demand for the iPhone 5c has suddenly dropped off compared to September, this shouldn't come as a surprise; demand for new iPhones is always high in the immediate weeks following launch, then trails off slowly, with an even higher peak during the holiday period. It makes perfect sense to trail off production now, then ramp it up again in, say, mid- to late-November in anticipation of the holiday rush. The alternative is millions of iPhones gathering dust in the back of Apple stores, and we all know what the media's reaction to that would be. Naturally, since none of this fits the "Apple is doomed" narrative, that's not the line the WSJ is pushing hardest. And unfortunately for the publication's steadily unravelling credibility when it comes to Apple news, there's another complication... WSJ backpedals on iPhone 5c supply chain cuts story (AppleInsider) As AppleInsider notes (and soundly criticizes), the WSJ's story was initially even more alarmist than the version cited above, until the publication went in and performed minor surgery on it. For the past couple years I've noticed a steady decline in the reliability of the Journal's coverage of Apple, which led me to wonder on Twitter why anyone still considers them a credible source where Apple is concerned. One of my followers pointed out that the Journal still receives highly reliable information immediately before Apple events –- whether deliberately "leaked" by Apple or not is the eternally open question –- so that's led me to a new rule of thumb with regard to the Journal: Any speculative piece about Apple printed in the Wall Street Journal is no longer worth paying attention to, unless it's less than ~24 hours from an Apple event. Apple Increasing iPhone 5s Production by 75%, Cutting iPhone 5c Orders by 35% (MacRumors) Yet another source claims iPhone 5c orders are being cut, while iPhone 5s orders are getting boosted. Strangely, rather than going with the typical "Apple is doomed" schtick, this source points out that Apple selling more of its higher-priced, higher-margin iPhone units is actually a good thing for the company's bottom line. Thus, the narrative is less "Apple's mid-tier iPhone sales fall flat" and more, "Apple's high-tier iPhones still sales favorite." Funny how that works. Retina iPad mini forecast to outsell thinner 'iPad 5' nearly 2:1, if Apple meets demand (AppleInsider) You know the drill by now: a bunch of analysts threw some chicken bones at the floor in a hilariously misguided attempt to predict sales numbers for unannounced, unreleased products. I don't trust the weather forecast in my part of the world more than 48 hours in advance, and I definitely don't trust analysts' sales forecasts for products that no one outside of Apple (and select Chinese factories) has even seen yet. Apple's Retina iPad mini could be next to impossible to find at launch (BGR) Since almost-always-wrong analyst Peter Misek is the source for this information, I think it's far more likely that the Retina iPad mini will be available in every corner drugstore the day after launch. Rumor: Amazon's French and German sites suggest new Apple TV coming Oct. 23 (AppleInsider) A sudden shift in the date of availability of the current Apple TV sparks off speculation that an updated version is coming. When last seen, Gene "Where's my Apple HDTV" Munster was downing an entire bottle of Pepto Bismol and a dozen nitroglycerine tablets. Apple event predictions from KGI: Thinner, lighter A7X iPad 5 w/improved cam but no gold or TouchID. Also A7 iPad Mini w/Retina, Haswell MacBook Pros (9to5 Mac) This far-too-long headline accomplishes two things: it identifies the source and the bulk of the article itself. Since the source is a hit-or-miss analyst, there's very little motivation to read beyond the headline. But let's give it a shot anyway. "Kuo predicts a slimmer iPad 5 with 20% lighter weight down to 7.5mm and 500g respectively. He also expects an 8 megapixel camera with a larger aperture on the order of the iPhone 5 and a new 64-bit A7X processor." "Bold" predictions all, considering virtually everyone has expected all of these things for months. Same with Kuo's prediction that the iPad mini will have a Retina display. A gold color option and Touch ID are apparently off the table for the iPads. We'll see about that. There's nothing earth-shattering in this report, and it hews close enough to the overall consensus of what everyone already expected that it doesn't come across as particularly visionary. But if even half of this stuff turns out to be accurate, you can count on rumor blogs to continue hailing this particular analyst as some sort of expert prognosticator. Next-generation iPad dimensions reveal sleeker design (TUAW) Wait, what? TUAW?! Oh, great. I work with the guy who wrote this article, so I suppose I could have flat-out asked him what his source was to determine if this story was worth the attention he gave it. But since I don't do that for anyone else's publication, I figured that was giving TUAW an unfair advantage. So I'm judging this on its own merits, just like everyone else. As for posting this rumor on TUAW in the first place... there's a saying somewhere about stones and glass houses. I forget how it goes. Anyway, I prefer the phrase, "Some men just want to watch the world burn." *lights match* From the article: "As our longtime readers know, TUAW usually scoffs at rumors." That's right. It's because the overwhelming majority of them are complete bull. How is this one any different? "When a reputable case manufacturer provides exact dimensions of a device a few days ahead of an Apple product launch, it's hard to ignore." Sure, because case manufacturers have never, ever gotten it wrong. The dimensions given are extraordinarily specific –- down to tenths of a millimetre –- which doesn't leave a whole lot of margin for error. It's likely this particular case manufacturer got its hands on one of the "leaked" cases that various blogs have breathlessly photographed and catalogued, and it's basing its case dimensions off of that. Whether that gamble pays off for the case manufacturer in question -– or for TUAW, who believed them enough to post this story despite its notorious distaste for rumors –- only time will tell. All the case manufacturer stands to lose is time and a small amount of money retooling its fabrication facilities to any corrected dimensions. TUAW's risk is arguably just as precarious; after a year and a half of throwing stones at other publications for posting rumors of questionable (at best) veracity, it would be unfortunate indeed if a story like this one became an excuse for the BGRs of the world to point the finger and laugh at us. Fair warning, Steve: if that happens, I will fly out to Colorado and smack you upside the head with a herring.
Rumor Roundup: 'Well-respected analyst'
Here is the only rumor that came out this week that has even the remotest chance of coming true: Apple Will Hold Fall iPad Event on October 22 (AllThingsD) Continuing its proud tradition of not being full of crap (an increasingly rare thing amongst tech publications when it comes to Apple), AllThingsD has once again correctly pegged the date of an upcoming Apple event well in advance of an official announcement. I feel comfortable saying they got it right because Jim Dalrymple of The Loop gave this rumor a "yep," and unlike the armies of so-called "reliable" analysts out there, Jim is a source you absolutely can trust in these matters. So what can we expect to see at this event? A fifth-generation full-size iPad that looks similar to the current iPad mini. The iPad mini itself will probably have a Retina display (unless it doesn't). According to AllThingsD, "the new Mac Pro and OS X Mavericks will likely get some stage time as well." That's it. That's all there is to legitimate, well-sourced Apple rumors this week. We can all go home now. Well done, everyone. Wait. What's that you say? This wasn't the only Apple rumor this week? *checks RSS feed* Oh. Please... Oh god no. Apple predicted to sell as many as 10M 'iWatches' in first year (AppleInsider) Gene "Where's My Apple HDTV" Munster has switched gears. He's no longer chasing the white whale of a mythical Apple device with a huge screen. Now he's chasing the white... guppy?... of a mythical Apple device with a small screen. He surveyed 799 people in the US and... and... and I'm going to stop right there, because this is in no way, shape, or form a legitimate news story. Asking people whether they'd buy a product that doesn't exist, then extrapolating sales data from that survey, is about as scientifically accurate and computationally relevant as astrology. As I gaze into my own crystal ball, I see Gene Munster's future: two more years of rumormongering about the iWatch. Apple's iPhone 6 will FINALLY feature a bigger display (BGR) FINALLY. From the article: "Another report from a well-respected source suggests Apple is indeed finally getting ready to satisfy critics and launch a smartphone with a larger screen." Oooh, sounds juicy. Who exactly is this well-respected source? "Jefferies & Co. analyst Peter Misek" -- BWAAAAHAHAHA! "Well-respected" source? HAHHAHAHAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!! *gasp, pant* Hoo, boy. Peter Misek. "Well-respected source." That's a good -- HAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!! "Misek has had a few good calls regarding unreleased Apple products in the past," BGR lies, "and he is considered by many to be among the top analysts covering Apple right now." I'd like to know exactly who these "many" are, and I'd like to recommend that they head to their nearest hospital for chelation therapy immediately, because it's clear they've been eating all of the lead paint chips in the world. Oh, and as for the rumor itself: The iPhone 5S has only been out for two weeks. Anyone who claims to know what the iPhone 6 will be like is selling something. It's your own fault if you take them seriously. Here's the best evidence yet that Apple's iPad 5 will include a Touch ID fingerprint scanner (BGR) BGR is becoming increasingly adept at three things: Sensationalistic, wrong-headed "analysis" about Apple Taking analysts and their wild-assed guesses way too seriously Hilarious attempts at getting all CSI on "leaked" parts Guess which one of the three this story is? Hint: it includes a titillating photograph of a ribbon cable. A7-powered iPad 5 will accelerate the switch from PCs to tablets by two points – analyst (9to5 Mac) Deutsche Bank makes what has to be the safest call made so far this year: iPads will continue to eat the PC market's lunch in 2014. This just in: a gigantic ball of nuclear fire is predicted to crest the eastern horizon tomorrow morning. Sources indicate this enormous, intensely bright plasma sphere will bathe the planet in heat and light for as much as 14 hours before disappearing behind the western horizon. More on this shocking story as it develops. Another solid report says Apple's iPhone 6 will FINALLY include a bigger screen! (BGR) FIIIIINAAAAALLLLLLYYYYYYY. "It hasn't even been three weeks since Apple's record-smashing iPhone 5s and iPhone 5c debut, but the rumor mill has already moved on to bigger and better things," BGR says. I don't know about "better," but the pile of BS is definitely bigger than it's ever been. BGR gets things off to a hilarious start by once again suggesting that Peter Misek is a "well-respected Apple analyst." If such a thing even existed (it doesn't), Peter Misek definitely would not fit the bill. But I think we've beaten that dead horse enough -- kind of like Misek's Apple HDTV predictions, am I right? HEYOOOOO. Some analyst says Apple is "toying with two different display sizes for its upcoming iPhone 6." Unlikely, but let's hear him out. First off, what's his source? "...research in Apple's supply chain..." Oh, is that the same supply chain that Tim Cook himself said is rarely, if ever, indicative of Apple's actual product pipeline? Just checking. How about these purported displays, then? "..a 4.7-inch panel with 1,280 x 720-pixel resolution..." Nope. Not a chance. "...and a 5.7-inch display with full HD 1080p resolution." BZZZT. I'm sorry, that's also incorrect. We have some nice parting gifts for you. Thank you for playing "Are You Smarter than a Dachshund?" There's a word Apple executives like to use when they talk about Android devices: fragmentation. Apple chides the Android experience for trying to cater to too many devices, with too many different display sizes. Apple has already fragmented the iPhone experience once, by introducing an iPhone 5 with a different aspect ratio than the iPhones which came before it. It took months for app developers to adjust -- and now we're supposed to believe that Apple is going to do it yet again? Come on. 64-bit CPUs seen bolstering possible 13" iPad notebook from Apple (AppleInsider) Every once in awhile, some analyst with no clue about how computers actually work trots out the idea of Apple building a Mac based on the ARM CPU architecture. This latest bit of technobabble comes courtesy of some analyst realizing, "Hey, Apple builds 64-bit CPUs for its iOS devices now. That means they'll be more powerful -- BINGO. Apple is going to build Macs with ARM CPUs." The most powerful iOS device on the market right now, the iPhone 5S, gets benchmark scores that are just slightly over half as good as the least powerful Mac that Apple currently sells. ARM CPUs work outstandingly well for the purpose they're most suited to -- powering mobile devices with pared-down (or "optimized" if you prefer) operating systems, but they'd be terrible at running Photoshop CS6 on OS X Mavericks. Please stop banging on this particular drum, because it's just making you look silly. Well, sillier than usual anyway. iPhone 6 will sport a 5-inch display -- and Apple's iWatch is MUCH MORE than just a smartwatch (BGR) MUCH MORE. BGR hits the laughable trifecta here, once again calling peter Misek a "well-respected analyst." (That's three posts in a single week with variations on that phrase. I smell a search engine optimized rat.) "Adding more fuel to the fire, Cantor Fitzgerald's Brian White came away from a recent meeting with an unnamed Apple component supplier completely convinced that next year's iPhone 6 will finally sport a bigger screen." Excellent. Another Apple analyst with an incredibly poor track record has said the same thing as the other guy who hasn't got a clue what he's talking about. That's settled then. Absolutely set in stone. Just how "much more" will the iWatch be, Brian? "...a multi-purpose gateway in allowing consumers to control their home (i.e., heating/cooling, lights, audio, video, etc.)." Well, isn't that special. It sounds exactly like the perennial analyst fantasy of Apple devices someday controlling everything in the house. You pull your iCar into the driveway and use your iPhone to unlock your front door. Siri-activated systems turn your lights on for you. You use an iRing to control your Apple HDTV. Touchscreens on your iFridge let you plan your grocery list. And we all have weekend vacations on the Moon, eat our dinners in pill form, and electricity is too cheap to meter. Sometimes I wonder if these guys actually read any of the things they write. Coming from Apple in 2014: 12-inch Retina MacBook, sharper iPad, cheaper iMac? (9to5 Mac) Everyone's favorite Apple analyst has apparently been downgraded from "well-connected" to "typically reliable" according to this post. It's only a matter of time before he becomes "sometimes reliable," then "hit-or-miss." If he's lucky, though, he'll eventually manage to convince at least one blog to start calling him "well-respected" again. Seemingly having learned his lesson from being wrong many times in the recent past, this analyst has shied away from the explicitly concrete claims he became so famed for and has instead retreated to the analyst default: broad claims about products sufficiently far off in the future that by then everyone will have forgotten how wrong he was when they fail to materialize. But leave it to the rumor blogs to pass all this on like it came straight from Tim Cook's own diary. Already we're setting unrealistic expectations for 2014: a gigantic-screened iPhone, a 12-inch MacBook that will "redefine laptop computing," a low-cost iMac, and a sixth-gen iPad with a higher pixel density than the fourth-generation iPad -- or even the still unreleased fifth-generation iPad. I said it last week, but it bears repeating: spreading this BS as though it's the truth is entirely counterproductive. Wall Street analysts are too dumb not to eat these stories like candy, so when none of these products actually make it to market next year they're all going to think it's because Apple has lost its touch. I dream of a world where tech writers stop paying attention to these so-called "analysts" and cease spreading their fantasies dolled up as legitimate news. In this much better world, this weekly roundup would be much shorter, and I'd feel less compelled to be so dismissively snarky about it all. Because news about Apple would be just that: news. Actual news from legitimate sources. Not, "This guy got one thing kinda sorta right this one time, so we'll reblog absolutely everything he says from now on, no matter how far-fetched or demonstrably illogical it may be." AllThingsD manages to write real news about Apple. So does Macworld, and Ars Technica, and The Loop, and an increasingly smaller handful of others. What's wrong with the rest of you?
Rumor Roundup: Why so serious?
There aren't many jobs out there where screwing up is rewarded. A neurosurgeon with a 25 percent success rate probably won't be a neurosurgeon for very long. Pilots can only make so many unsuccessful landings before they cease to be pilots (or anything else). Burn enough of those sad grease patties masquerading as hamburgers, and even the world's worst fast food joint will fire you. But for some reason, if your job involves spreading digital manure about Apple, you can be as wrong as you like as often as you like, and it will never matter. Someone, somewhere, will pay attention to you. It's been said there's no such thing as bad press. Let's put that to the test. Rumor: Apple will be moving to TSMC for A8 chip production for the 4th year in a row (9to5 Mac) According to "sometimes accurate" Digitimes. 9to5 Mac spends half this post trashing Digitimes' accuracy, but that didn't stop them from publishing this perennially unrealized rumor from the laughingstock of the Apple rumor scene anyway. Rumor mill again points to Boost Mobile getting Apple's iPhone (AppleInsider) From the article: "While the promotional materials could be real, @evleaks has in the past been off with Boost Mobile predictions." This also isn't the first time Boost has been rumored to be getting the iPhone. And these "leaked" posters would be trivially easy to fake. Apple is reportedly testing iWatch designs with flexible OLED displays (BGR) "According to a brief report from South Korean newspaper The Chosun Ilbo" -- sounds legit! "While there is still no firm sign from Cupertino that the company actually has a smartwatch in the works," don't let that stop us from speculating about it. Endlessly! And when this hypothetical, nonsensical product fails to materialize year after year, we can always claim that Apple has encountered manufacturing issues, or licensing problems, or any other excuse to cover up the fact that we have no idea what we're talking about and are completely making all of this up. Case in point... Reuters: Retina iPad mini may not launch in 2013 due to supply constraints (AppleInsider) See, this is how the rumor scene works now. If Apple does debut an iPad mini with a Retina display, the rumor blogs will be high-fiving themselves over the accuracy of their sources. If the device doesn't debut this year, it's not because their sources were completely full of it. It's all Apple's fault, or at least its manufacturing partners. It's the perfect scenario; the rumor blogs get to pretend to be accurate sources of news no matter which way the die falls. Report claims iPad 5 & Retina iPad mini will sport 8MP rear cameras w/ larger aperture (9to5 Mac) Some analyst says, "Apple could upgrade the camera" in the iPad, and the rumor blogs are on it. If there's anything the iPad needs, it's a better camera. A better camera means more people will be convinced that using an iPad as a camera is a good idea... which means more opportunities to laugh at people using their iPad as a camera. iPhone's Touch ID metal ring fits in iPad 5 part, but likely isn't evidence for fingerprint-scanning iPads (9to5 Mac) "Home button size has not drastically differed across Apple devices, so this could just be a coincidence." Wow, you think? The dark side of Apple's iBeacons (BGR) iBeacons are new technology and haven't been widely deployed, so now is the perfect time for BGR to spread the FUD. (For those not hip to acronyms, FUD stands for Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt, while BGR stands for Boneheaded [Expletive Deleted] Rumors.) BGR wants us to know that there is "a darker side of iBeacons that could become a huge annoyance for iPhone owners and other iOS device users." You see, while iBeacons can be used for good (transmitting useful data to iPhones via Bluetooth -- think museum exhibits, information at tourist attractions, maybe even mobile payments -- they can also be used for evil (EEEEEEEVILLLLL), like bombarding people with location-specific advertising. Imagine a hellish future where a shopping trip to Target makes your iPhone explode with promotional offers the minute you drive into the parking lot. Imagine further that in this near-future hellscape, you don't have the ability to block this insidious form of iBeacon advertising by turning your iPhone's Bluetooth off. Say, from an interface easily accessible from the bottom of the screen at any time. A Center, if you will, that allows you to Control certain features of your device, including activating/deactivating Bluetooth, with a minimum of steps. Supply chain sees weak demand for notebooks, expects big things from Apple's fifth-gen iPad (AppleInsider) Some analyst "confirms" everything we already "know" about the next-gen iPad. What intrigues/depresses me most about this story is the analyst in question has moved on from Topeka Capital Markets and now works for Cantor Fitzgerald. Despite getting almost every single bit of analysis about Apple wrong over the past couple of years, this analyst is apparently still moving up in the world. Apparently accurate insight doesn't count for much in the financial services industry. This is, sadly, not at all surprising. And now, time for a brief digression. Recently, after publication of last week's Rumor Roundup, one of the writers from a publication that regularly shows up on these lists randomly contacted me on Twitter with a simple question: "Why are you so angry?" My answer was equally simple: "I'm not." I don't write this roundup every week because I'm pissed off and have an axe to grind. I do this in a Quixotic attempt to let some of the hot air out of the room. "Reporting" about Apple has slowly but steadily become dominated by self-proclaimed "experts" in the industry, and the majority of rumors are treated as gospel in spite of sources that are shaky at best and comically inaccurate at worst. This next story is almost prototypical of the problem with Apple reportage in 2013. Report claims both likely & unlikely display changes for future Apple devices (9to5 Mac) An Asian publication made a series of wild claims about Apple's supposed plans for its display technologies over the coming year. This publication merely cites "an industry source" for its claims, which could mean anything from some random factory worker to a financial analyst completely making stuff up out of thin air. 9to5 Mac runs with this source and adds a heaping helping of fantastical "analysis" on top of it. "The iPhone has long been expected to adopt a larger display in 2014," they claim, but no truly credible source has ever pointed in that direction. "The iPad screen size increase definitely makes sense," 9to5 Mac asserts, which actually makes no sense whatsoever considering how absolutely over-the-top bonkers tech reporters went in 2012 when the third-generation iPad had the temerity to be a few grams heavier and a fraction of a millimeter thicker than its predecessor. "The iPad mini has long been rumored to adopt a higher-resolution screen," 9to5 Mac says, then goes on to say that " it's unclear if Apple will release the Retina iPad mini this year or early next year." This is called "having your cake and eating it too." "In terms of OLED displays, there's definitely evidence for Apple going either way." This must be some strange new definition of the word "evidence" with which I was previously unaware. Note that no current Apple device ships with an OLED display, no hard evidence exists of any Apple prototype/production device with that display technology, and Tim Cook himself has said OLED isn't up to Apple's standards. But sure, there's plenty of evidence for Apple going either way. "While not all are likely, it's highly plausible that at least a couple of the above claims will turn out to be accurate." And you can bet they'll be paying far more attention to the claims that turned out to be accurate. Here's the problem: based on a sketchy rumor out of South Korea, 9to5 Mac has set (or simply reinforced) expectations for an iPhone with a larger screen, an iPad with a larger screen, and an iPad mini with a higher-resolution screen. So what happens when some or all of those products fail to materialize? What happens when Apple instead "only" introduces iterative updates of its existing product lineup? I'll tell you what'll happen: exactly what's been happening since Apple dared to debut an iPhone 4S that was externally almost identical to the iPhone 4. Apple will be accused of losing its innovative touch. A thousand bloggers will rush to be the first to claim that Apple has lost its way since Steve Jobs died, and Tim Cook will be the company's doom. Samsung, the undisputed kings of "change for the sake of change" and creating products that satisfy bloggers' fever dream checklists, will be hailed as the new weathervane of innovation in the industry despite its most successful products continuing to be blatant, shameless ripoffs of Apple's designs. Meanwhile, Wall Street will swallow all of this drivel passing as objective reporting and logical analysis, and it will act accordingly by continuing to devalue Apple's stock -- further decoupling Apple's performance in financial markets from its performance in retail markets. Mainstream publications will look at Wall Street's reaction to unfulfilled rumors and draw their own conclusion: Apple must be doomed. Just look at its tanking stock price! Just look at the new iPad, that looks pretty much the same as the one that came before it! And ugh, whyyyyy is Apple still sticking with a teeny-tiny four-inch screen on the iPhone when Samsung is innovating all the way up to six glorious OLED inches? Rumor blogs aren't the only source of stupidity when it comes to the media's distorted image of Apple, but they definitely are a symptom of the disease. Posts like the one cited above set unrealistic expectations for what Apple will produce. How far has Apple's stock sunk simply based on four years of unfulfilled Apple HDTV rumors? How many years in the row can the iWatch fail to be anything other than some analyst's fantasy before Wall Street decides Apple hasn't made this nonsense product not because it's nonsense, but because Apple can't make it without Steve Jobs? This is what your "reporting" is doing to the company many of you claim to love. That sourceless report out of Asia with its Wild Claim of the Week about Apple gets inflated from fiction to accepted fact in the blink of an eye, and your breathless shouting into the Internet's echo chamber is a major reason why. And when the reality presented onstage at Apple's keynote events fails to match up to the endless months of fantasy you've been pimping all over the blogosphere, the financial markets panic, the media claims Apple is circling the drain, and even "normal" people start to question how much life Apple -- the most financially successful company on the planet right now -- has left in it. I'm not angry. I'm disgusted. There's a difference.
Rumor Roundup: Don't bet the farm on it
This week, at least two publications got to have it both ways. One heavily criticised an analyst for his poor track record, then went on to use analysts as sources for several stories. Another posted erroneous information only to debunk its own rumormongering later that same day. It's a beautiful, double-dipping world out there when it comes to Apple rumors. Rumor: World's largest carrier China Mobile begins producing advertising collateral for iPhone 5c, 5s (AppleInsider) A sketchy photo of a single, easily-faked poster. Yes, this is how the world's largest mobile phone carrier in the world's most populous country will choose to advertise the availability of the world's most famous mobile phone. Rumor: Apple working on 12" iPad with partner manufacturer Quanta (AppleInsider) Asian source we've never heard of makes grandiose claims that Apple will pair with a manufacturer we've never heard of to produce a product that makes no sense at all. Sounds legit! Gene Munster's iPhone launch estimates off by 5M units for the second year in a row (AppleInsider) This is a pretty impressive deconstruction of one analyst's consistently wrong claims about Apple. Gene "Where's my Apple HDTV" Munster is just a symptom of a wider problem, however: a tech press that doesn't critically evaluate its sources nearly as often as it should. For proof of this, look no farther than the next story. iPhone marketshare in China predicted to double in 2014 (AppleInsider) This prediction comes courtesy of IDC. This is the same IDC that predicted Android would peak in 2012 and decline (didn't happen) and that Windows Phone would surpass iOS by 2016 (no seriously, they said that). ""It really comes down to this: We can easily point to Nokia being one of the biggest leaders over there [in emerging markets]," one of their analysts said last year. Again, these are actual words once uttered by IDC representatives. It's nice to think they might be right about Apple's prospects in China, but given their past track record, I wouldn't bet the farm on it. I wouldn't even bet a cow on it. Not even a steak. Can Apple announce the rest of 2013′s products in just one event? (9to5 Mac) Half the products on this article's list are either imaginary or unlikely to be worthy of mention at an Apple event. Apple didn't hold a special event for its recent iMac updates, and it's not likely to do so for "Haswell Mac minis" or "MacBook Pros with Haswell chips" either. Apple has steadily been paring back the number of products it discusses at its events, now focusing on just a few key hardware products and its yearly OS updates. Any product that gets a basic spec bump simply isn't worth mentioning at these events anymore. Once you eliminate the mundane items and the pure fantasy from 9to5 Mac's list, this is all we're left with: Redesigned full-size iPad New iPad mini OS X Mavericks release Mac Pro release One event is enough to cover all that. New video claims to show iPad 5 Smart Cover with smaller dimensions (9to5 Mac) "While these Smart Covers appear to be legitimate, we remain skeptical of the design discrepancies between this cover and that of the one that ships on the iPad mini." These Smart Covers appear to be legitimate, eh? That's funny, because... iPad 5 Smart Cover 'leak' likely just fakes from China (9to5 Mac) Isn't it neat how 9to5 Mac was able to publish the earlier, erroneous report (with a dash of skepticism for flavor), then debunk its own report later that same day? It certainly netted them far more pageviews than they'd have gotten if they'd just ignored that erroneous report in the first place. Retina display-toting iPad mini may not ship with 'iPad 5' this year, report says (AppleInsider) You'd think that after its withering exposé on a financial analyst earlier in the week AppleInsider would know better than to trust a "supply chain analyst" as a source for a story like this. Guess not. LEAK -- Retina iPad mini pictured in gold with Touch ID fingerprint scanner (BGR) I don't believe these photos are real even for a second. Something about this just screams "Photoshop" to me. Apple rumored to need Samsung for some A8 chip production (Engadget) Korea Economic Daily claims Samung will produce 30 to 40 percent of Apple's A8 processors in 2014. A Korean publication reports that the largest Korean tech company will continue to supply core technology to the world's most profitable tech company. Hmm, nope, no conflict of interest here. We're at least six months away from the A8 (or whatever Apple's next-gen processor ends up called) being produced in large quantities. How anyone can claim to know who will be building it, and the percentages involved, this early in the game and with a straight face, is beyond me.
Rumor Roundup: An accidental toot in an elevator
The week of an Apple product launch is usually pretty light on rumors, because this is the point in the news cycle where there are plenty of real stories to report on instead. There's also a mountain of manufactured controversy drawing attention to the Apple products that exist today and away from the hypothetical and inevitably controversial Apple products of tomorrow. Still, a few rumors did manage to squeak out this week, much like an accidental toot in an elevator. EXCLUSIVE -- Apple testing iOS 7.0.1, preparing iOS 7.1 - iPhone 5s supply 'severely constrained' (BGR) BGR continues to stretch the credibility of the word "exclusive" with the first word of this article: "It's no secret Apple is working on newer versions of iOS 7 even before iOS 7 is released to the public." EXCLUSIVE: Water wet, sky blue, BGR dumb. Space Gray coming to an iPad Mini 2 near you? (9to5 Mac) "The question mark at the end gives us our powers of legitimacy!" is what I imagine goes down in the 9to5 newsroom every time a headline like this gets published. Snark aside, the first half of this post is the only kind of rumor that doesn't make me reach for my slappin' gloves: photographs of physical evidence supporting the article's claim. The second half of this post burns away all that good will, however; some guy's renders of potential Apple products are so far away from being legitimate evidence that it calls the accuracy of the rest of the post into question. New report suggests iPad 5 and Retina iPad mini could get fingerprint scanners (BGR) I somehow knew before I even clicked the link above that this would be another trash piece citing Digitimes as a source. Nothing that comes from Digitimes is a "report" -- calling anything from Digitimes a "report" is the same thing as calling the resultant miasma of gas from a farting dog "perfume." iPhone 5c could spell serious trouble for Apple (BGR) APPLE IS DOOMED. This time, it's doomed because Apple is apparently selling too many iPhone 5c handsets. From the article: "If U.S. consumers tilt this strongly towards the cheaper option even with only a slight price gap, it is clear that a truly affordable iPhone would have triggered a stampede." Which, by what passes for "logic" at BGR, would have meant that Apple would have been in "tremendous peril" instead of "serious trouble." The brain damage train chugs along: "So it seems that Apple opted to launch the cheaper iPhone... well, why? [...] What was the point of the 5c, the world's most expensive value model?" The 5c is essentially the guts of last year's iPhone 5 in an array of colorful, plastic shells that differentiate it both from the high-end iPhone 5s and every iPhone that's come before it. It fills the "mid-tier" pricing slot that the iPhone 5 would have filled otherwise, while the iPhone 4S is now the "budget" model iPhone. That's the point of the iPhone 5c. Duh. "It's hard to see Apple making this move that is so weirdly blurry under Steve Jobs." So true. Steve Jobs would never have split Apple's product lines into a simplistic consumer/pro tiered model where even the consumer models were both more expensive than and superior in build quality to the low-end budget models littering the marketplace. NEVER WOULD HAVE HAPPENED ON STEVE JOBS'S WATCH. Tim Cook may regret dismissing low-cost smartphones as 'junk' (BGR) "The most striking takeaway from Thursday's big Bloomberg Businessweek interview with Apple CEO Tim Cook was that he views smartphones that are priced in the $300 to $450 range as 'junk' that Apple wants nothing to do with," BGR says. I read the same article, and I don't even remember this line, so "the most striking takeaway" is a bit over the top. In other words, exactly what I expect from BGR. "Cook should realize that people in emerging markets who are buying cheap smartphones aren't simply destitute peasants who will never be able to afford Apple products." Pretty sure Cook said it was the devices that were cheap and junky, not the consumers. But by all means, keep grinding that severely blunt axe. "[Cook] is seemingly shrugging off low-income consumers in countries such as China, India and Brazil whose economies have been growing fast" -- in other words, "I think Tim Cook and Apple should be chasing market share instead of profits. WHY WON'T THEY LISTEN TO ME?!" "In theory, Apple could have developed a smartphone that was cheaper to produce and could have priced it at between $350 to $450 to make it more affordable to people in these three markets," BGR continues. Boy, these rumormongers certainly are smarting from getting burned by the iPhone 5c's price, aren't they? Turns out that swallowing years of analyst BS about "low-cost iPhones" and an "iPhone mini" has made them all look like utter fools, so the natural reaction is to criticize Apple for not conforming to their desired narrative. The penultimate line of this article is priceless: "I've learned to not second-guess Apple's business decisions over the years because the company has absolutely shown that it knows what it's doing." Re--he-he-he-heaaaally? What was the point of the hundreds of words that preceded this sentence, then? If I were just a normal reader looking for insights, I'd be really pissed off reading a line like this at the end of an article that so clearly contradicted its sentiments. However, since I deliberately look for this kind of lazy hypocrisy in tech writing so I can pin it to the wall and laugh at it, this kind of thing makes my whole day instead.
Rumor Roundup: iPhone event post-mortem
Now that the iPhone 5s and 5c have been officially revealed, it's time for a rumor post-mortem. The biggest thing analysts (and pretty much everyone else) got wrong? The supposed "low-cost" iPhone. For years analysts have expected Apple to come out with an "iPhone mini" that will address the lower end of the smartphone market and allow Apple to expand its market share. These analysts obviously don't pay attention to how Apple functions -- at all -- because grabbing market share at the low end of the pricing spectrum is pretty much exactly the opposite of how Apple rolls. So when Apple instead released the iPhone 5c as basically the iPhone 5's guts in a plastic shell, and at a price far higher than the analysts were dreaming up, I wasn't a bit surprised. The derp sharks in the financial sector are circling, however, fully convinced that Apple doesn't know what it's doing and that DOOM can't be far behind. Here's the other stuff the rumor blogs got wrong over the past few months. Nope New report claims Apple's 'iPhone mini' could launch next month (BGR) Source: some analyst. No iPhone mini launched in July. iPhone 5S release reportedly pushed back to October (BGR) Source: some analyst. The iPhone 5S will be released in late September. iMac Update to Haswell Expected in June or July as Shipments Sink (MacRumors) Source: some analyst. The iMac's last update was in November 2012. Is Apple ditching the 'Black & Slate' color option on the iPhone 5S? (BGR) Source: Paint fumes. Note that while Apple switched the black iPhone 5s to "space grey," that's far from what this article claimed would happen. Entry-level iPhone, Retina iPad mini to reportedly begin shipping in August (BGR) Source: Digitimes. 0/2 on this rumor. Shocker. Will the Plastic iPhone knock the iPhone 4S out of this year's free iPhone pattern? (9to5 Mac) Source: Aliens? Probably aliens. The iPhone 4S is still being sold. Apple rumored to launch fifth-gen iPad in Sept., new iPad mini to follow (AppleInsider) Source: Digitimes. Another Digitimes-sourced rumor that didn't pan out. Rumored iPhone 5S production shots & specs: IGZO display, fingerprint reader, NFC, 12MP cam (9to5 Mac) Source: "Unverified news out of China." Look at all the stuff this article gets wrong: NFC reader, IGZO display, 12 megapixel camera, A6 CPU... real stellar stuff here. Wildly unlikely report claims larger 4.3-inch display causing iPhone 5S delays (9to5 Mac) Source: Some Taiwanese newspaper. The new iPhones still have 4-inch screens. Rumored iPhone 5S fingerprint sensor more likely to be in the screen, not the home button (9to5 Mac) Source: Overanalysis of an Apple patent application. The iPhone 5s fingerprint sensor is in the home button. iPhone 5S & New Low-Cost iPhone To Launch On September 6 [Rumor] (Cult of Mac) Source: "A 'very credible' source." The iPhone event was on September 10. Apple's 'iPhone 5S' to boast fingerprint sensor embedded in convex sapphire home button (AppleInsider) Source: Some analyst that rumor blogs repeatedly trot out for a supposedly stellar track record. The iPhone 5s home button is neither convex nor concave, but flat. Piper Jaffray: 'iPhone 5C' may not include Siri, could replace iPhone 4S at bottom of lineup (AppleInsider) Source: Some analyst. The iPhone 4S is still around, and the iPhone 5C has Siri. Low-cost iPhone predicted to boost both Apple's margins & international sales (AppleInsider) Source: Some analyst. This is a perfect example of an article where an analyst got the price of the supposed "low-cost" iPhone absolutely wrong. Analyst predicts iPhone 5S with Gold option, larger F2.0 aperture camera and 128GB high-end (9to5 Mac) Source: Some analyst. He got everything right here... except the fact that there's (still) no 128 GB iPhone. Apple iOS 7 beta 7 to be released today (BGR) Source: "Trusted sources." Not only was 7b7 not released the day BGR said it would be, there never actually was a 7b7. Version 6 was the last beta before the Gold Master release. Embarrassing. Apple's September 10 iPhone Media Event Said to Also Include New iPads (MacRumors) Source: Bloomberg, and substances of unknown chemistry. No new iPads showed up at this event. Apple taking shipments of 'Set Top Boxes' ahead of Sept. 10 event, hints at new Apple TV product (AppleInsider) Source: US Department of Homeland Security shipments (supposedly). No new Apple TV hardware. New Apple TV software likely coming next week, but don't expect fresh hardware (9to5 Mac) Source: "People familiar with the company's plans." No new Apple TV software. Now, to tip my hat in the general direction of "fair and balanced," let's see what the rumor blogs actually got right in this cycle. The biggest one, of course, would have to be the iPhone 5c's case. That thing leaked so many different times that it frankly became tiresome seeing it pop up on rumor blogs every week. Tim Cook promised to "double down on secrecy" in 2012. It hasn't happened yet, apparently. Yep Leaked schematics reveal what case makers expect Apple's low-cost iPhone & 'iPhone 5S' will look like (AppleInsider) Year after year casemakers get it wrong. Not this year, though. Apple's Prototype iPhone 5S Based on New A7 Chip (MacRumors) One among a myriad of hardware leaks that turned out to be true. Report: iPhone 5S will support super-fast LTE Advanced (9to5 Mac) "An alleged insider at SK Telecom" in South Korea turned out to be correct. iOS 7 Beta Suggests iWork, iLife iOS Apps May Soon Be Free (MacRumors) This is sort of right. New iPhone buyers now get these apps for free. Everyone else still pays. The next iPhone's cool-factor: a slow-motion camera? (9to5 Mac) Digging into the iOS 7 betas reaped some rewards. Next-Gen iPhone Production Kicks Into Gear; Will There Be a Mid-Tier iPhone, Too? (AllThingsD) Sourced from Peter Misek. Somehow still correct? Hold me, I'm scared. Analyst's predictions for 2013: New iPhones to be in short supply, Haswell iMacs/MacBook Pros arriving, no new iPad mini (9to5 Mac) Another rare case of an analyst getting it right. Apple to Discontinue iPhone 5 Alongside Launch of 5S and Plastic Models? (MacRumors) I remember scoffing at this report when it first came out. Oops. New iPhone with biometric fingerprint sensor seemingly confirmed by iOS leak (9to5 Mac) Another deep dive into the iOS 7 beta got some accurate results. Will the iPhone 5S launch with a new 'champagne' color option? (BGR) This seemed absolutely ridiculous when first announced. And yet here we are, in a world where Apple builds gold-colored iPhones. Ugh. Apple said to have tested 64-bit 'A7′ chips for iPhone 5S, 31% speed increases reported (9to5 Mac) This didn't make much sense at the time, but the iPhone 5s did indeed turn out to have a 64-bit processor. Apple may differentiate 'iPhone 5S' fingerprint scanning home button with silver ring (AppleInsider) These pictures screamed "fake" to me when I first saw them. Guess not. What can we take away from this? The same thing we take away from every rumor cycle: analysts don't know what they're talking about when it comes to Apple. At all. Here are the most common sources of Apple rumors, arranged in descending order of accuracy: Leaked Apple hardware (with pictures) Deep dives into iOS beta software "People familiar with the matter" "A trusted source" A hermit in the Gobi Desert who's never heard of Apple Some analyst Digitimes
Rumor Roundup: 'Apple likely to (verb) (product) in (year)'
Here's what we know for certain about the upcoming September 10 event: A new Apple product of some kind will be announced. Probably an iPhone. Here's what we suspect will be announced at the September 10 iPhone event, based on the few credible rumors skimmed from the meniscus layer of a deep ocean of BS: The next-gen iPhone will probably be called the iPhone 5S. With few exceptions, it will look externally identical to the iPhone 5. It will likely have a faster CPU. It may have an improved camera, including a dual flash. It may or may not have a fingerprint sensor. Alongside this, the iPhone 5C is likely to be announced. This is an iPhone with a plastic backside that will be available in multiple colors. In most other respects, including the internal components, it appears similar to the iPhone 5. This may or may not be the long-rumored "cheap iPhone" that's been the object of endless speculation for years; the biggest unanswered question about this supposed low-cost product is just how low that cost will be. Definitely not showing up at the September 10 event: New iPads Apple HDTV (sorry, Gene) iWatch If Apple has any surprises up its sleeve, it's successfully managed to keep them hidden from the eagerly drooling jaws of the rumor blogs. Speaking of which, let's see what they've been up to this week. Latest parts leak may show Apple's 'iPhone 5S' fingerprint scanner (AppleInsider) A supposed "iPhone 5S" button from June 2013 didn't have the same design as a newly-leaked part from September. There are several possibilities: the earlier leak was wrong, the current leak is wrong, Apple changed its mind about the design sometime in the past few months, and so on. Whether this new part actually has a fingerprint sensor in it at all is purely speculative. Shipments of New iPhone Models Begin Arriving in the U.S. Ahead of Next Week's Media Event (MacRumors) A "reliable source" says new iPhones are already being shipped and stockpiled in the US in the leadup to the launch later this month. This is normally when I'd say something snarky about how MacRumors also used to consider Digitimes a reliable source once upon a time, but I'll refrain from that just this once. Oh, oops. Darn. Apple taking shipments of 'Set Top Boxes' ahead of Sept. 10 event, hints at new Apple TV product (AppleInsider) Interesting, but... New Apple TV software likely coming next week, but don't expect fresh hardware (9to5 Mac) Make up your minds! A7X-Based iPad and iPad Mini Expected to Launch in 4Q 2013, Lower-Cost A6 iPad Mini to Follow in 2014 (MacRumors) That headline sure sounds promisingly definitive, doesn't it? Too bad it's sourced entirely from some analyst's random, evidence-free musings. Some of his claims directly contradict earlier claims he's made, but he covers his tracks by saying Apple's plans have changed. Hmm, convenient. Apple Tests iPhone Screens as Large as Six Inches (Wall Street Journal) From the article: "It is unclear whether Apple will ultimately choose to follow a multi-size, multi-device strategy beyond shipping a new lower-cost model for the first time later this month. The company often tests different devices and configurations before choosing a course." For some reason this article doesn't end there, but rambles on for another 1000+ words. The WSJ's tech writers obviously aren't familiar with the phrase, "Brevity is the soul of wit." Why Apple's iPhone 5C pricing is fraught with peril (BGR) "Fraught with peril" sounds like something out of Monty Python and the the Holy Grail. And from whence camest the source of yonder great peril of which BGR doth most righteously speak? Lo, it issues forth from the spewhole of some analyst. Yea, verily, a source entirely most newsworthy. Forsooth. Apple's OS X Mavericks release planned for end of October (9to5 Mac) If/when Apple releases Mavericks earlier/later than this predicted date, 9to5 Mac can just take a cue from the analysts and claim Apple changed its plans. (That one's for free. Future consultations will cost you.) Apple 'needs a mega iPhone' (BGR) ...according to some analyst. Meh. Apple could use 'a Siri-like moment' at next week's iPhone event, Barclays says (AppleInsider) ...according to some analyst. Meh. Apple likely to launch 4.5" to 5" iPhones in 2014, analyst says (AppleInsider) "Apple likely to [verb] [product] in [year], analyst says." It's that "analysts says" bit at the end that really drives the credibility home. Apple may differentiate 'iPhone 5S' fingerprint scanning home button with silver ring (AppleInsider) Immediately before some photos is this gem: "AppleInsider has no reason to believe these images are in fact legitimate. But since they do support the theory of a silver-ringed iPhone home button, they are included in this story." Um, whaaaaat? "This 'evidence' stinks to high heaven, but it supports our theory, so we'll allow it." In the name of all that's holy, I sincerely hope none of these people ever serve on a jury or hold high public office. Photos claim to show iPhone 5C logic board and structure (9to5 Mac) From the article: "Of course, like with many leaks, it's tough to verify the legitimacy of these photos, so it's wise not to read to [sic] far into them." Mysteriously left out of the article: "Now, we shall proceed to read too far into them, because pageviews."
Rumor Roundup: The 150-pound iWatch
Here's a riddle for you: what weighs as much as 150 pounds, but might also not exist at all? No, it's not your "girlfriend who lives in Canada." We'll ponder the real answer to this question later on. Apple to deliver OS X 10.8.5 with Mail, screen saver fixes as soon as today (AppleInsider) This article was posted August 26. It's September 3 as I write this, and 10.8.5 still hasn't been made publicly available. You're only 8 days off (so far), AppleInsider. Excuse me, "sometimes reliable" AppleInsider. Retina iPad mini housing leaks in huge photo gallery (BGR) "The case looks a lot like the current-generation iPad mini housing of course, though there are some subtle differences." Don't feel like you need to actually point those differences out or anything. If you did, you might actually lend some credibility to this rumor, and we just can't have that. High-res photos claim to show iPad 5 front panel (9to5 Mac) "The photos are consistent with what we're all expecting: essentially a scaled-up iPad Mini, with thinner bezels on the sides." Because this is consistent with what we're all expecting, you can also expect pundits to go frothing-mouthed insane once this product is announced. Minus 4000 quatloos to the first moron who unironically says, "It's just a big iPad mini." Apple's September 10 iPhone Media Event Said to Also Include New iPads (MacRumors) Hahahaha... nope. More evidence points to iPhone 5S, iPhone 5C launch on September 20th (BGR) Said "evidence" is really just mobile carriers like T-Mobile blacking out vacation days. Now here's a question: do these companies actually know the official launch date for these products, or are they just making an educated guess? EXCLUSIVE -- iPhone 5S, iPhone 5C launch date seemingly confirmed by AT&T vacation blackout (BGR) BGR eventually removed the "EXCLUSIVE" from this article after commenters pointed out that other outlets had published this story days earlier, but I've included it here "for the purposes of discussion." By which I mean "pointing and laughing at them." And now for this week's biggest thing: leaked photos of the low-cost iPhone. New 'leaked' photos claim to show fourth iPhone 5S color – graphite – but we're skeptical (9to5 Mac) LEAK: This is Apple's gold iPhone 5S (BGR) Photos claim to show 'iPhone 5C' packaging, color-matched wallpapers (9to5 Mac) Rumor: First video of working 'iPhone 5C' shows off Web browsing capabilities (AppleInsider) Analyst rantings and ravings aren't worth the pixels they're printed on, and "sources from the Far East" are flat-out wrong with hilarious regularity. Yet even though it can be faked, to me photographic evidence is usually the next best thing to having an Apple exec debuting an item onstage at an event. All this is a roundabout way of saying I'm convinced: the iPhone 5C is a happening thing. With that out of the way, let's move back into the realm of pointless speculation and brain-damaged fantasy. Apple projected to ship nearly 65M 'iWatch' units priced at $199 in first year (AppleInsider) Some analyst floats some nonsense numbers for a completely speculative product. For some reason, this is reported like it's actual news. Attention AppleInsider and the rest of you rumor blogs: please just accept that these so-called "analysts" know precisely Jacques-merde about Apple and stop polluting the Internet with their re-reported nonsense. Apple iWatch rumored for 2H 2014 launch, priced between $149-$229 (BGR) Hey, speaking of sources not worth paying the least bit of serious attention to, "Digitimes cites an analyst" --BZZZZT, super-duper-mega-ultra-fail. Next! The Boy Genius Report: The Apple TV that no one understands and the reinvention of television (BGR) "It's not a rumor, but a fact that Apple is looking at bringing a game-changing TV experience out of Cupertino." Oh really? And your evidence is... what exactly? *crickets* I thought so. "you can only fit so many 150-pound televisions in boxes on a plane" Someone please remind BGR that this is the year 2013. Even today's biggest flatscreen TVs don't weigh nearly this much. Hell, I have a 40-inch LCD, and I can carry it in one arm easily. The issue isn't the weight, but the unwieldy size of the thing. Mudslinging temporarily aside, I must take this opportunity to reiterate that Apple making its own HDTV makes absolutely no sense. BGR is mostly wrong about why it doesn't make sense, but at least they're making the effort to dust off their critical thinking caps. And now, let me share with you what is hands down the dumbest thing I read in all of August. What if Apple's iWatch is... a TV? (TNW) Immediately after finishing this article, I wrote this on Twitter: "There's so much concentrated stupid in this article that it's hard to know where to begin." Let's start at the very beginning: a very bad place to start. "We are allured to the newest devices on offer because of some minor improvement that was actually invented many years ago, but we just weren't allowed to have it before." Yes. This is exactly how technology works. It has nothing at all to do with optimising technological developments for mass production and making them cost-effective to deploy on a wide scale. It definitely has nothing to do with testing these things thoroughly before unleashing them on eager but fickle consumers. No; companies selfishly hold back their innovations until they're damn good and ready to release them. Right now, Google has a fully-fledged holodeck in its basement in Mountain View, but the jerks won't actually release it to the public until 2037. "Over the past few years, [Apple's] stream of 'awe-inspiring' products seems to have dried up a bit, or at least hit a blockage in the pipe of creativity and innovation." MEME ALERT: Apple can't innovate anymore. A touchscreen computer that fits in your pocket and is more powerful than a Mac Pro G5? Yawn. Another touchscreen computer the size of a paperback book that requires zero training to use it? Whatever, innovate faster. A notebook computer that weighs less than a kilogram with all-day battery life? MEH. "Is it just me who feels this? No. The Internet speaks about it all the time – there's volumes of discussions out there" And we all know that the vast, dramatically idiotic echo chamber that constitutes the Internet is the ultimate authority on Truth with a capital T. YouTube comments are where I usually go for my daily dose of "discussion." "Apple's share value has consequently taken the hit as a direct result." No. Apple's stock price has tanked due to a combination of analysts having unrealistic expectations for continually and exponentially increasing financial performance, a media obsessed with trying to distort every last fact about Apple to fit its "how the mighty have fallen" narrative, and (likely) a dash of good old-fashioned stock manipulation by some shady characters. "Why is it that a company that has more resources than it has ever had cannot compete on the stock market with Google and Amazon, whose shares continue to rise?" Because the stock market has become completely decoupled from anything resembling logic or sanity. Apple continually turns in earnings that any company would be overjoyed to report -- including Google and Amazon. Yet because the inmates are running the asylum in the USA's financial institutions, companies who are turning in modest profits see their stocks rise while Apple, turning in record profits quarter after quarter, sees its stock price tank. There's your answer for "why": stupidity, plain and simple. "Apple doesn't do niche products, as they would tarnish its overall reputation." Um, what? Here's a short and by no means all-encompassing list of products Apple has introduced over the years that started out as niche products. You may have heard of them: The Apple I The Macintosh The iPod The iPhone And those are just the ones that succeeded. We'd be here all day if I listed all the niche products Apple has ever released. Hilariously, the most arguably "niche" product Apple sells right now is -- wait for it -- the Apple TV. "TV [...] taps into a $39 billion market. A watch couldn't command even 1% of that market's earnings." Apple reported quarterly revenue of $35 billion over the three-month period ending in late June. In three months, Apple's revenues nearly equalled those of the entire TV industry. Tell me again why Apple should give a rat's rear about the TV market? "Many households have more than one TV. It's a gold mine." No it's not. It's a boondoggle. People don't view televisions as a disposable, commodity product. The same consumers who'll happily upgrade to a new iPhone every other year will hold onto a television until it dies. I'm about as big of a technology hound as you'll find, yet I've owned a grand total of three television sets in the past 18 years. Meanwhile, I've owned four iPhones since 2009. Tell me again why Apple should get into the TV market? "So let us imagine you are Apple and you're going to bring out a TV that actually profits mainly from its content." In other words, let us imagine that Apple completely upends its hardware-centric profit model and decides to operate more like a video game company, or Google, or Amazon, or Microsoft. Let us also imagine that anyone who floats this as a serious idea has any clue what they're talking about when it comes to Apple's business model. As for what this guy expects the Apple HDTV to be like, here's how it breaks down: Gesture-based interface (like the Kinect) -- no remote 65 inches "simply invisible and unobtrusive" "screen technology will most certainly be OLED" "It's likely to be a 4K resolution screen" "The unique selling point in terms of design could be a curved screen" Priced at "a level that others cannot match" Made in the USA -- even though it's more expensive In other words, a bunch of hugely expensive technology that Apple has shown no interest in adopting, slammed together in the USA (somehow) and offered for less than the $10,000 that existing televisions using these technologies are selling for. There's "magical thinking," and then there's this. "A 65" TV is a rather large object to ship in and distribute. If it's made in the US, then suddenly the cost of shipping decreases which goes towards counteracting any extra labor costs." Sure -- unless you want to ship this product to that niche market known as the rest of the world outside of the United States of America. "If Apple doesn't act NOW, it will miss the biggest chance of its corporate lifetime." Yes. Grabbing a thin slice of a highly-competitive, low-profit market with limited opportunities for consumer turnover is the biggest chance of Apple's corporate lifetime. "I certainly am not one of those loudmouth, one-sided online trolls and to many people's surprise, given my love for technology, I have never owned or bought an Apple product in my lifetime." I am shocked, shocked that someone who has never owned an Apple product has been able to demonstrate such "insightful" knowledge of the company's likely future direction. Please, tell me more. "I have no intentions of doing so, either. The principal reason is due to Apple's eagerness to be separate and monopolistic which suffocates future innovation." MEME ALERT: Apple is Big Brother, "walled garden," etc. ad infinitum ad nauseaum. "[Apple] can turn things around beyond these minor innovations and has the potential for a massive profit gain from this TV – a TV called the iWatch." No. Just no. Here's the good news. This article was terrible enough that its writer has an extremely promising career ahead of him as an Apple analyst.
Rumor Roundup: A black mark on your record
With few exceptions, the spotlight this week was on the rumored next-gen iPhone(s). The closer we get to the (presumed) reveal date, the more plausible and less dumb the rumors get -- on average. There are still some clunkers in here, as there always are. Analyst: US$400-500 iPhone 5C will hit China Mobile in Q3 and replace the iPhone 5 globally in Q4 (9to5 Mac) Some "often reliable" analyst says two silly things: "iPhone 5 will reach end-of-life at the end of 3Q13, while shipments of iPhone 4S will continue until the end of 2013." iPhone 5S will exceed iPhone 5C in shipments First of all, ending the iPhone 4S line before the iPhone 5 doesn't make sense. It seems like a safe bet that Apple is looking to get devices with 30-pin dock connectors out of its product lineup; the iPad 2 is very likely on borrowed time, which would leave the iPhone 4S as the only 30-pin device still soldiering on (except for the iPod classic, but that poor, neglected thing doesn't really count anymore). As for the iPhone 5S exceeding the 5C in shipments? If the iPhone 5C is meant to be the "budget" model iPhone that price-sensitive consumers are meant to flock to, then how does it make any kind of sense at all for the "premium" iPhone 5S to have more devices shipping? Apple on track to build 5.2M 'iPhone 5S,' 8.4M 'iPhone 5C' units this quarter (AppleInsider) And see, now this same guy is contradicting his own predictions. Now he thinks Apple will ship 8.4 million iPhone 5C units and 5.2 million units of the iPhone 5S. "Well-connected insider" is apparently the new way to say "standup philosopher." Apple iOS 7 beta 7 to be released today (BGR) 19 August: "We are told by our trusted sources that Apple has once again seeded a new build of iOS 7 to partners, and that it should be released to developers later today." It's 26 August as I write this. iOS 7 beta 7 still hasn't been released. I hope you didn't trust that source too much, BGR. P.S., please never stop showing us all how ironic the "G" part of your name is. Shell from completely redesigned iPad 5 leaks in silver for the first time (BGR) Gee, it looks just like a bigger version of the iPad mini. Exactly what we've been expecting for months. I hope BGR didn't hurt themselves leaping to post this BREAKING EXCLUSIVE information. iPhone 5S will come in gold & likely sport fingerprint sensor, iPad iOS 7 running behind (9to5 Mac) This is mostly a good overview of the rumors surrounding the next-gen iPhone and well worth reading, except for the egregious use of "sport" as a verb (*twitch, twitch*) and this part: "Even though iOS 7 is yet to even ship, it's also time to talk iOS 8." No, it really isn't. We won't even see a developer preview of iOS 8 for at least nine months. At this point there can't be more than a handful of people within Apple who have the foggiest clue what iOS 8 may offer. Those people have names like Jonathan Ive and Craig Federighi, and they're not likely to be leaking things to anyone. Yes, Apple Will Sell a Gold-Tone iPhone (AllThingsD) AllThingsD is one of the few tech pubs I still trust when it comes to this stuff. So, it looks like the gold iPhone will probably be a thing. Not my thing, though -- you can pry my black-on-black Darth Vader iPhone 5 from my cold, dead hands. Supplier to Ship Two Apple iPhones in September (Wall Street Journal) This article seems excessively lengthy, especially considering the fact that it brings absolutely nothing new to the table that we haven't already seen elsewhere. New iPhones rumored to rollout on September 20th, at least in Japan and Greece (9to5 Mac) Seems plausible. If past experience is any indicator, it'll probably launch in every single English-speaking country except Ireland and New Zealand around the same time. (I don't know what Apple has against beautifully green islands, either.) iPhone 5C Rear Shell Subjected to Scratch Tests, Caliper Measurements (MacRumors) "Based on caliper measurements, the iPhone 5C measures 124.55 mm tall x 59.13 mm wi-" ZZZzzzz... *snrk* Huh, wha? Black iPhone 5C pictured for the first time in leaked photos (BGR) "Apple's upcoming mid-range iPhone 5C will seemingly debut in black along with all of the other colors that have leaked thus far." You sound pretty confident about this. I really hope this came from another "trusted source," or you might end up looking foolish. Apple reportedly has no plans to launch a black iPhone 5C (BGR) "Photos of what appeared to be a black iPhone 5C emerged for the first time earlier this week, and there's a reason we hadn't seen the handset in black before: the device pictured was a fake." ☆。★。☆。★ 。☆ 。☆。☆ ★。＼｜／。★ Journalism! ★。／｜＼。★ 。☆。。☆ ☆ 。★。 ☆ ★ Report: Apple negotiating w/ media companies for pay TV service, working on full-fledged TV set (9to5 Mac) "The report doesn't offer up any details that we didn't hear around this same time last year (and the year before that)." I know, isn't it great? All anyone ever really has to do is change the year on their stupid rumor articles and hope no one notices. Instant profits. Approvals process will delay iPhone 5C launch in China until end of November – rumor (9to5 Mac) The good news here is that either this rumor is wrong or a certain "well-connected" analyst is. Either way, someone's getting pointed and laughed at. Pegatron employee spies a pile of iPhone 5Cs, all warming up for September (Engadget) Engadget was ready to dismiss this as fake, but then they did some actual investigation (so proud!) and found this spy shot likely came straight out of Pegatron's factory. They also speculate this employee is likely now an ex-employee. I'd say that's a safe bet. Apple said to have tested 64-bit 'A7′ chips for iPhone 5S, 31% speed increases reported (9to5 Mac) A couple of people have said iOS 7 isn't even compiled for 64-bit, and a few others have raised a stink over some of the technical details in this article (and the plethora of others like it). I guess we'll have to wait for the inevitable Geekbench results leaks to know for sure.
