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Rumor Roundup: Attack of the copycats
Apple's competitors have almost devolved to the point of self-parody. Samsung and Google are perfect examples; they're now both gearing up to push products to market simply because Apple has been rumored to be working on a wearable computer or "iWatch." Some blatantly anti-Apple pundits will of course lambast Apple's product as "unoriginal" or "derivative" when/if it ever comes to market, since Samsung and Google will presumably have their own versions available for sale first. The one thing that's most predictable about Apple "analysis" is its complete lack of grounding in logic. Apple rumored to launch Retina iPad mini in Q3 2013 (AppleInsider) Asian sources throw darts at a wall and come up with yet another purported launch date for the next-gen iPad mini with Retina Display. There's no proof, of course, so don't put too much money down on this rumor. Apple revival said to start with 'killer feature' planned for iPhone 5S (BGR) From the article: "Huberty gave no hint about what this 'killer feature' might entail." That's probably because she has no idea. Apple isn't going to reveal potential features ahead of schedule to a financial analyst. Apple expected to double dividend to $16 billion, among highest in U.S. history (BGR) Some analyst thinks Apple's going to double its dividend payouts. Somehow, having over a hundred billion dollars in cash sitting around is a huge problem. I wish I had problems like that. Survey shows huge interest in an HDTV from Apple, but few willing to commit (BGR) 69 percent of people surveyed said they might consider purchasing a product that Apple has shown no interest in building and that most reasonable people have accepted will likely never see the light of day. On the other hand, only 15 percent would "feel comfortable" buying a completely mythical product. Apple predicted to gain additional U.S. smartphone share over Samsung in 2013 (AppleInsider) Some analyst thinks Apple will gobble up some of Samsung's market share this year following a seemingly lackluster product launch for the Samsung Galaxy S IV. Hmmm... seems Samsung is even copying Apple's "disappointing" product launches now. Can "Samsung is DOOMED" be far behind? iPhone 5S to Get Upgraded Camera and Processor, Could Ship to Retailers in the 3rd Quarter (MacRumors) "Digitimes is reporting" -- blah blah blah, yadda yadda yadda. "Reporting" isn't the proper word for what Digitimes is doing. "Making [expletive deleted] up" is more like it. New low-end iPhone expected to cost half as much as iPhone 5, margins seen at 38% (BGR) Some analysts threw a bunch of numbers around about a product not even remotely confirmed to exist. If this sounds familiar, that's because it's been happening at an average of once per week this whole year. None of these people actually have any clue how much this product will cost consumers, how much it will cost to make, or if it even exists at all. The more specific their numbers, the more laughable their predictions. Google Reportedly Working on Its Own Android Smart Watch (MacRumors) Samsung and Google are no longer content to copy existing Apple products; now they've moved on to copying rumored Apple products. It's only a matter of time before Google dispatches private eyes to start sifting through Jonathan Ive's trash bins. Rumor: Apple to launch cheaper iPhone with plastic casing, non-Retina display this summer (AppleInsider) Some analyst makes a series of unsourced and unbelievable claims about a low-cost iPhone. Just like every other analyst on the planet, he has no proof for any of these claims. Not a shred. The claim that a new iPhone will debut without a Retina Display is particularly appalling -- I don't know how this analyst expected anyone to buy that nonsense. But does that stop the rumor blogs from reporting it anyway? Nope. Alleged iPhone 5S Home Button, Vibrator and Volume/Mute Flex Cable Parts Surface (MacRumors) And here we go... incredibly exciting parts leaks here. If by "incredibly exciting" you mean "not remotely exciting in the slightest."
Rumor Roundup: 'Free donuts tomorrow'
A few weeks ago, I compared the world of Apple "analysis" and rumors to the worst possible game of Wheel of Fortune. Upon further reflection, it feels a lot more like the combination of a drunken game of darts and hanging an intentionally misleading "Free donuts tomorrow" sign in front of a restaurant. A year after Apple announced its dividend, 'timing could be right' for another cash deployment (AppleInsider) Some analyst thinks Apple is going to start paying out bigger dividends to shareholders in order to start chipping away at its giant pile of cash. But the real news comes in the final paragraph, courtesy of well-known A-list investor Warren Buffet. AppleInsider says that according to Buffet, "Apple's best strategy is to simply run its business well." No. Go on! You're pulling our legs, Warren. Supply Chain Indicators Point to Poor February for Apple (MacRumors) Some analyst (the same one from the rumor above, incidentally) says his "supply chain checks" indicate Apple had a "terrible" February. Of course, Apple CEO Tim Cook himself has said that these so-called supply chain checks often don't capture the full picture of Apple's operations, so why analysts continue to lend them so much weight is an open question. Apple to use fingerprint sensor to enhance the security of NFC mobile payments in next iPhone? (9to5 Mac) If this rumor sounds achingly familiar, it's because virtually every word of it was said about the iPhone 5 last year. Apple predicted to announce plans for growing cash pile by April, will add $42B over 2013 (AppleInsider) Another analyst says Apple will announce its financial plans for its US$137 billion pile of cash next month. He refrains from speculating much on what those plans might be, however. My bet? Apple launches its own constellation of GPS satellites to address problems with Apple Maps. Hey, it's more likely than the perennial rumor that Apple will buy Twitter. Rumor: Intel could land 10% of Apple's 'A7' chip orders (AppleInsider) Given that this story is sourced from Digitimes, you can safely change that 10% figure to 0%. AAPL Analyst Short of the day: Jefferies' Misek downgrades on expensive low cost iPhone, own casing color prediction unlikelihood (9to5 Mac) Peter Misek is wrong about Apple's future plans so often that a few weeks ago Cult of Mac did a breakdown of his incorrect predictions over the past few years. Yet for some reason, rumor blogs are still publishing his musings as though they're gospel. IDC estimates Android will pass Apple for worldwide tablet market share in 2013 on the back of smaller/cheaper tablets (9to5 Mac) This is the same IDC that, once upon a time, thought Windows Phone 7 was going to overtake iOS market share. How did that prediction fare? Apple's HDTV reportedly delayed, iWatch may launch this year (BGR) Peter Misek is at it again: the Apple HDTV is supposedly "delayed" yet again and due to launch "sometime next year," and he gives the iWatch a 50/50 chance of launching this year. "Apple HDTV delayed until next year" is the headline that keeps on giving. It's like putting a readerboard sign in front of your restaurant that says "Free donuts tomorrow" -- you never need to pay off on the promise, because technically the board always says the donuts will be free at some future date. Apple Reportedly Preparing to Announce Larger Dividend or Stock Buyback (MacRumors) Yet another financial outlet claims to have the inside story on what Apple plans to do with its cash stockpile. With so many outlets reporting the same thing, that Apple plans to make an announcement by next month, it's hard to shake the feeling that the Internet's echo chamber is hard at work yet again. Apple to diversify manufacturers for low-cost and legacy iPhones (AppleInsider) Some analyst claims Pegatron will start taking over the lion's share of iPhone production from longtime manufacturer Foxconn. We've been hearing this same rumor for years now, and it's definitely starting to feel like yet another case of "free donuts tomorrow" from the rumor blogs. Speaking of which... Apple's next-gen A7 processor reportedly being readied for production by TSMC (AppleInsider) The number following the capital-A changes each year, but the rumor doesn't. Each year we hear that the A(x) chip will be built by TSMC instead of Apple's bitter rival Samsung. Each year, it fails to happen. That this story is sourced from "sometimes reliable" Digitimes seals the deal on the probable veracity of this rumor. Apple proposes 'on-the-go' wireless charging via iPad Smart Cover with built-in battery (AppleInsider) This patent is actually quite fascinating, suggesting that future iPad Smart Covers could act as portable, wireless chargers for the iPads they connect to. Given how thin the Smart Covers are compared to the iPads themselves, and considering that most of the internal volume of an iPad is its battery, it's questionable how much extra juice you'd get from a Smart Cover. On the other hand, as anyone who makes heavy daily use of an iPad knows, every last milliamp of charge counts. Apple's 'budget' iPhone expected to have same 4-inch display as iPhone 5 (AppleInsider) At this point, one gets the sense that these analysts are simply throwing darts at a wall in an attempt to divine the size of Apple's supposed "low-cost" iPhone. "The screen will be bigger! No, smaller! No, bigger! Wait, it'll be the same size!" It's a typical case of self-contradiction in the world of Apple analysis, and a perfect example of why hardly any of these so-called "analysts" are worth taking even the slightest bit seriously. Apple's Retina iPad mini to follow debut of high-res Google's Nexus 7, report says (AppleInsider) "Supply chain checks" supposedly reveal that Google will introduce a high-resolution version of its Nexus 7 before a Retina Display-equipped iPad mini reaches the market. "When would the Mini be available? Could be third quarter or fourth quarter," one of the analysts said. Translation: "I dunno." *throws dart at a wall full of numbers*
Rumor Roundup: 'A mixed record with Apple rumors'
The "iWatch" isn't even remotely confirmed to exist yet, but if you think that's stopped analysts from predicting it'll be either Apple's salvation or the harbinger of its demise (depending on which way the chicken bones fall), then you must be new to the world of Apple rumors. Meanwhile, this week brought us rumors of other, slightly more believable Apple products -- and the sources ran the gamut from "right so often he must have inside sources" to "wrong so often that flipping a coin will get you better results." Anyone want to take bets on which category will feature "reports out of the Far East?" Apple's Planned 'IWatch' Could Be More Profitable Than TV - Bloomberg Bloomberg doubles down on its prediction that the iWatch will launch this year. Of course, lots of people have said the same thing about the Apple HDTV, and that's nowhere to be seen either. Apple's watch will run iOS and arrive later this year, say sources | The Verge The iWatch will supposedly run full iOS, according to The Verge's sources. However, those same sources say battery life issues are stymying Apple's efforts. Jony Ive Ordered Boxes Of Nike Watches - Business Insider Jony Ive supposedly ordered a bunch of Nike watches in the mid-2000s, which Bloomberg takes to mean he's been thinking about the iWatch for a long time. Hey, I'll bet Ive bought a car when he was 16 years old... BREAKING EXCLUSIVE: Jony Ive to design iCar Apple Building 2TB Solid State Drives for Next Mac Pro Release? (MacRumors) Some site you've never heard of has an unconfirmed report that Apple is developing high-capacity SSDs for its next Mac Pro. You know, the one it hasn't updated significantly since 2010, and that's been on deathwatch for two years. Makes sense. Remember, in the rumor business, "unconfirmed report" = page view gold. Apple to debut 'iPhone 5S' in June alongside low-cost fiberglass and plastic handset (AppleInsider) Some analyst makes very specific claims about Apple's supposedly forthcoming hardware. Very few of these claims are original; however, this guy's been right several times in the past, so it's tougher to dismiss his claims out of hand. iPhone 5S planned for August, next iPads may debut as soon as April | iMore.com Speaking of people who've been right many times, Rene Ritchie of iMore says the next iPads will come out in April, with the iPhone 5S following in August. He hasn't been wrong yet. Apple could ditch the home button for pressure-sensitive casing in future iPhones (BGR) Why do so many rumormongers hate the Home button? What did it ever do to them? Did that small, concave circle with its unobtrusive rounded rectangle run over someone's dog? Did it date somebody's daughter and bring her home after midnight? We spent a good portion of last year and the year before that hearing about how Apple was going to ditch the Home button on the iPad and the iPhone. It didn't happen. It won't happen. There's a point at which simplicity of design becomes too cumbersome to tolerate from a usability perspective. Just ask the third-generation iPod shuffle. Rumor: Production of Apple's 'iPhone 5S' now underway at Foxconn (AppleInsider) MacOtakara claims production of the iPhone 5S has already begun. This doesn't jibe well with iMore's prediction of an August launch -- millions of iPhones aren't going to gather dust in China for five months -- and since iMore is batting 1000 on their predictions, I'll go with them. Apple Will Miss Its Own Revenue Guidance, Says Citi - Business Insider Throw another log on the "Apple is doomed!" fire, because that "most accurate" of "sources," analysts checking supply chain sources, now claims Apple will miss its own quarterly revenue guidance. Keep in mind that Apple hasn't missed its own guidance in years, and its only "misses" have been against the hyperinflated expectations of dumbkopf Wall Street analysts. Swatch CEO doesn't believe Apple's rumored 'iWatch' is next tech revolution (AppleInsider) Synchronize Swatches! The CEO of Swatch doesn't think the iWatch will be revolutionary. Keep in mind this is a device that's not only unannounced, there's no actual evidence it exists. This is a lot like Samsung saying Apple's HDTV won't revolutionize that industry... oh wait, that happened too. Well, it's also like Microsoft's CEO saying the iPhone won't get any traction in the market -- oh, right. That also happened. I guess the lesson here is to keep your opinions to yourself when predicting the demise of Apple's products, because otherwise you inevitably wind up sounding silly. Well, except for the people who thought Ping was a terrible idea. Good call on that one. Rumor: Apple and Intel again mulling partnership to build A-series chips (AppleInsider) Remember two years ago, when this same rumor surfaced? How many iPhones run on Intel processors today? Apple reportedly slashes 9.7-inch iPad orders due to iPad mini cannibalization (BGR) According to "sometimes reliable" Digitimes, Apple has "slashed" orders for the full-sized iPad. Where "sometimes reliable" = semiannually accurate, like a broken clock that's right twice a year. This isn't even the first time Digitimes has beaten this particular drum this year... and again, if what iMore has said is true, it's entirely possible Apple's "slashed" orders for the full-size iPad because its replacement is going into production. Rumor: Apple will purportedly use Qualcomm's Snapdragon SoC in low-cost iPhone (AppleInsider) This rumor sounds familiar too. Probably because it made the rounds in January of this year. It didn't make any sense then, and it doesn't make any sense now. Apple Exploring Wireless Charging for iPhone as Early as 2013? (MacRumors) From the article: "Digitimes has a mixed record with Apple rumors, so Apple's likelihood of incorporating such technology so soon remains uncertain." That's an almost admirably diplomatic way of putting it.
Rumor Roundup: Play that funky Misek
A modest proposal: Apple should award a unibody aluminum dunce cap to the analyst whose record of predictions turns out to be the worst in any given year. We're only into March, but one analyst is already standing above the rest. Purported 'iPad 5' cases again hint Apple will adopt mini-like redesign (AppleInsider) Direct from the article: "It's uncertain whether the case designs - all offering similar slots for controls, microphones, connectors, and speakers, and all shaped like the iPad mini - are based on familiarity with Apple's plans for a forthcoming iPad redesign or whether they are simply guesses based on assumptions of Apple's plans." This disclaimer ought to accompany every single story like this. Case designers have been wrong many times. Rotten rumors of impossible Apple stock split helps fund manager clear profits (AppleInsider) "Apple may split its stock," says some guy. Based on that rumor, the stock price goes up. That same guy then sells some stock and makes a tidy profit. Nothing suspicious about that at all. Move along, nothing to see here. Apple may need $137B cash hoard to weather 'very rough' next two years, analyst says (AppleInsider) Peter "How does he still have a job?" Misek, who's built a career on being constantly incorrect about what Apple will do three to six months in the future, quadruples down and bets on what Apple's fortunes will be like over the next two years. All this really shows is Misek is adapting; rather than making short-term predictions that are soon proven false, he's playing the long game with predictions that won't be proven false until 2015. Apple's versatile magnetic stand concept could securely hold an iPad upside down (AppleInsider) Although the standard "Apple patents stuff that never sees store shelves" caveat applies, this is one case where I really hope this technology does make it into shipping products. Corning Says Devices With Flexible 'Willow Glass' Displays Unlikely to Appear for at Least Three Years (MacRumors) Remember when Corning announced flexible glass, and people with no concept of production scalability immediately shouted from the rooftops, "iWatch! iWatch coming in six months with flexible glass!" Well, it turns out that there's a wide gulf between "Look at this neat thing we can make," and "Look what we can crank out by the millions every month." Who knew? Former Apple CEO: Apple needs another 'creative leap' (BGR) John Sculley, who will be forever known as "The Guy Who Fired Steve Jobs," echoes all the strident doomsayers of the past six months by saying Apple needs to unveil its Next Big Thing if it wants to stay on top. Bear in mind that Sculley's tenure as CEO was the first step in transforming the Apple of the 1980s into the Apple of the 1990s, so take his advice with a grain of salt roughly 12,000 kilometers wide. Rumor: $330 polycarbonate iPhone with 4.5" screen planned for 2014 (AppleInsider) Now taking all bets on which, if any, of the numbers in that headline are even close to correct. Rumor: Apple to ship 'iPhone 5S' and more affordable iPhone in August 2013 The "source" of this rumor might be the worst I've ever heard: a Chinese tech site citing analysts. It's totally backward, too -- usually it's the analysts citing sketchy Chinese sources, so now we've come full circle. The only way it could be worse is if Digitimes starts publishing rumors based on anything Peter Misek says about Apple. I'm sure if we wait long enough, it'll happen.
Rumor Roundup: Buy a vowel
Picture three contestants on Wheel of Fortune who are all Wall Street analysts. They play all the dumb letters first -- Z, X, Q, and so forth -- and land on "Bankrupt" on almost every spin. Now picture the puzzle they're trying to solve is, "What will Apple do next?" Welcome to the world of Apple rumors. Apple could triple share of Chinese market with $330 'iPhone mini' Some analyst spun the Wheel of Fortune and landed on a $330 price tag for a hypothetical "iPhone mini." I'd like to solve the puzzle: "Analyst crystal ball gazing isn't newsworthy." Apple likely to debut $199 iPhone as low-cost smartphone market hits $135B in 2013 Gene "Apple HDTV!!" Munster spins the Wheel and lands on $199 for the low-cost iPhone. You've got to admire his tenacity considering how many times Munster's spun and landed on "Lose A Turn." Rumor: Apple lining up suppliers for Retina MacBook Air, next-gen iPad (AppleInsider) Macotakara claims we'll see a Retina MacBook Air this year. They've gotten lucky with their claims in the past, but for the sake of my credit card balance, I sincerely hope they're wrong this time. AU Optronics Catches Up with iPad Mini Display Production, Begins Working on Displays for Next Generation Model (MacRumors) According to a report from Digitimes, something something "journalism" huh? Foxconn reportedly halts hiring due to slow iPhone 5 production, resumes next month (for next iPhone?) (9to5 Mac) Obviously this means two things: the next iPhone is due out in mid-year, and Apple is doomed. Preferred stock seen as Apple's chance to 'seize the opportunity' and reverse losses (AppleInsider) Some analyst thinks Apple will start paying higher dividends to shareholders. That will supposedly help Apple get rid of the massive pile of cash it has sitting around that's otherwise not doing much except being awe-inspiring. Apple patent filing points directly to 'iWatch' concept with flexible touchscreen display (AppleInsider) The real news here: Apple's bringing back slap bracelets. Brace yourself for iPogs in 2014. iPad 5 release date: Redesigned iPad to launch in Q3 | BGR A "Taiwan-based research firm" apparently reads the same rumors as the rest of us, because the only new claim here is that Apple will discontinue the iPad 2. Possible Photos of Second-Generation iPad Mini Rear Shell Surface (MacRumors) The site responsible for this latest leak has had many positive hits in the past. My gut says this one is probably legitimate. First photos of case for next full-sized iPad again point to narrower, iPad mini-like design (9to5 Mac) If the next-gen, full-sized iPad doesn't look like a giant iPad mini, I'll be extremely shocked. I imagine these intrepid case makers will be even more shocked, though. Morgan Stanley Meets With Apple's CFO - Business Insider Even Business Insider is skeptical on this one. "Stop us if you've heard this one before -- " stop "A Wall Street analyst meets with Apple's management --" STOP "and comes away more confident about Apple making a cheaper iPhone." please make it stop Is Apple's Future BlackBerry, Microsoft Or Amazon? - Forbes Forbes is on a roll, but unfortunately that roll is, "Worst financial analysis possible regarding the world's most financially successful company." This analyst opened his article with a Mark Twain quote, so I'll close with one: "Get your facts first, and then you can distort them as much as you please."
Rumor Roundup: Analyst overload
There's a marked split in rumors related to Apple. There's "almost kind of real news" that's sourced from "people familiar with the matter" or "sources who have been reliable in the past" or perhaps even spyshots of parts, products, or entire production lines. This type of article probably (*) turns out to be right about as often as random chance. Then there's "news" from "analysts," which almost always consists of 100 percent pure, grade-D B.S. Articles with an analyst as a source usually turn out to be as accurate as a blind tennis player (with apologies to any blind tennis players who may be reading this). These guys (they're almost all men) are so laughably wrong so often that I often wonder: How they still have jobs Why anyone pays attention to them No, seriously, why does anything they say qualify as newsworthy, ever? This past week was a classic example of rumor blogs paying way more attention to analysts than is warranted (i.e., any attention at all). This post would have been way shorter if these blogs had learned their lesson and stopped paying attention to this second-worst of sources on all things Apple -- don't worry Digitimes, you're still bottom of the barrel in our hearts -- but this week was a veritable analyst overload. Almost kind of real news Alleged iPhone 5S assembly line shots show new internal layout, linear motor (9to5 Mac) "Update: These are likely an iPhone 5 clone (with better vibrating motor). Note the smaller 1150 mAh battery and the (d'oh) SD card slot." D'oh indeed. Apple secretly developing entire platform for wearable, attachable computing (AppleInsider) Although the potential applications of this patent filing are intriguing to consider, the standard caveat applies: Apple often patents ideas it never brings to store shelves. And there's a pretty wide gulf between "Wouldn't it be cool if?" and "Thing that makes us money when we try to sell it." Apple Said to Have Team Developing Wristwatch Computer - Bloomberg Apple purportedly has a team of 100 "product designers" working on an iWatch. Small problem: haven't we heard over and over again that Apple has an extremely small product design team? There's Jonathan Ive, a handful of lieutenants, and... well, that's about it, isn't it? If Apple has 100 "product designers" working throughout the entire company, that's news to me. Maybe if you start lumping in the software teams the number starts getting higher, but in terms of hardware design we're generally given the impression that Apple has a tiny cadre of people in this area. Shares of Television Set Maker Loewe Jump as Apple Acquisition Rumors Resurface (MacRumors) Almost exactly the same thing happened last May. Apple didn't buy Loewe then, and it's probably not buying Loewe now, either. Check back in another nine months to see if this happens again. Regarding iWatch, iTV, iPhone 5S, bigger and less expensive iPhones, iPad 5, and iPad mini 2 | iMore.com Less of a rumor on its own and more of his own roundup, Rene Ritchie does a good, level-headed analysis of what we're likely to see from Apple this year -- and what's less likely. The Fall TV Lineup May Include Apple Dominating Gaming | TechCrunch MG Siegler speculates that Apple TV could be updated to run apps, especially games, and thereby steal Nintendo, Sony, and Microsoft's lunch money. "We all know the current Apple TV is already running iOS (even if Apple dances around directly stating it)," Siegler says. "And we know that the Apple TV is running on the same type of hardware stack that iPhones/iPads/iPod touches run on. The thing is ready to go. All Apple has to do is flip a switch." Personally, I would love for this to be true. I do almost all of my gaming on iOS these days; I only turn on my Wii when I weigh in on Wii Fit, and my PS3 has been doing nothing but gathering dust for nearly three months. iOS doesn't (yet) replicate the super hi-def, immersive, US$60 for a 30-hour game you can still get on a traditional console, but in my case I'm not even looking for that. Let me play The Blockheads or Canabalt on my HDTV, and I'm all set. "News" from "analysts" Analyst says $300 price point is sweet spot for unsubsidized iPhone mini (9to5 Mac) Based on no evidence whatsoever. Cheaper iPhone estimated to shrivel Apple's margins, would risk 'damaging its brand equity' (BGR) Based on no evidence whatsoever. Apple's iWatch and Apple TV initiatives could drive an additional $80 billion in yearly revenue (AppleInsider) Based on no evidence whatsoever. Full-size iPad's glory days may be over (BGR) Based on no evidence whatsoever. Are you getting it? Apple iWatch: People are getting excited for all the wrong reasons (BGR) "Wristwatches are in cultural decline, victims to the very smartphones that smartwatches aim to augment." Hey, who let this guy in? The things he says make sense. Turn in your analyst badge and gun, Detective Sagawa. Apple Planning March Special Event to Introduce Developer Tools for TV? (MacRumors) It took just a couple hours for Jim Dalrymple of The Loop, renowned for his accuracy in such matters, to pronounce "Nope" to this rumor. Cult of Mac helpfully provides a smackdown of the woefully inaccurate history of the analyst in question. Apple's 4.8-Inch iPhone 6 Reportedly Not Launching Until Mid-2014 (MacRumors) The same analyst tosses some more words against a wall. Some of them stuck, apparently. "How does this man still have a job?" Jim Dalrymple wondered last week. That's a fair question. Here's a variant: How do I get a gig like that? I assume these analysts are paid in the high five figures, minimum. That's more than I'm earning in my current job, and way more than I'd earn as a novelist. If these guys are all getting paid to just make crap up out of thin air, then as someone with tons of experience at fiction writing, I'm officially offering my services. For the right salary, I too will join the dark side and perform my "supply chain checks" (i.e., three lunchtime vodka martinis) and issue a "note to investors" (i.e., whatever nonsense enters my head after the third martini) once or twice a week. Page views guaranteed or your money back! Everyone wins, except for Apple's shareholders! Piper Jaffray says media event still likely by April, sees 'new iPad body styles' (AppleInsider) ""We believe that looking at the history of time between Apple product launch events suggests that the company will introduce something new in March or April," says Gene "Dude, Where's My Apple HDTV?" Munster. Too bad you can't really count on Apple to be perennially predictable anymore. If you could, iPhone launches would still happen in summer, the iPad would only get one major update per year, and Mac updates would happen whenever the company felt like it. Wait, that last part is still true. (*) There are four kinds of lies: Lies, damned lies, statistics, and analyst projections.
Rumor Roundup: Watch this
A light week for rumors brought out the usual dross with an unexpected late-week bonus: a truly ridiculous story about the long-rumored "iWatch." OS X 10.9 Activity Ramping Up as Speculation on Developer Preview Release Increases (MacRumors) The next version of OS X, version 10.9, keeps popping up in various sites' visitor logs. In the past, this has been a reliable indicator that the next major version of OS X will appear on the market anywhere from a year to a few months later. Other reliable indicators: the rising and setting of the sun, the passing of seasons, common sense. Rumor: Apple's next iPad mini to pack 324ppi Retina display (AppleInsider) Some Asian publication (not Digitimes for a change) renews claims that a Retina Display is in the mix for the next-generation iPad mini. Considering the sheer number of outlets reporting this rumor, if the next iPad mini doesn't have a Retina Display, you can fully expect at least 1000 variants of the "Apple is DOOMED" meme to appear online within hours. 'Radio Buy Buttons' found in iOS 6.1 via newly jailbroken iPads, could mean new functionality coming (9to5 Mac) In a classic case of overanalysis, 9to5 Mac found some random graphic assets in the iPad version of iOS 6.1 and let the speculation fly rampant from there. Even assuming these buttons are the real deal, I hope Apple plans on calling them something other than "radio buttons," because that name's taken. Apple 'leaving money on the table' by not releasing big-screen iPhone (AppleInsider) According to some analysts, Apple is "leaving money on the table" by not releasing a giant-screened version of the iPhone to compete against the ridiculously massive "phones" Samsung has on the market. Here's a short list of hypothetical products that Apple is also leaving money on the table by not releasing them to a ravenous market: Apple HDTV iWatch iCar iFridge iToaster Apple Space Shuttle 27-inch iPad 7-inch MacBook Air PowerBook G5 Sub-$1000 Mac tower Apple reportedly tells French reseller that a new Mac Pro is coming in the spring (9to5 Mac) Allegedly Apple told some random French reseller that new Mac Pros were coming this spring, and the first thing that reseller did was blab to the rumor blogs. Either this reseller is making stuff up to draw more attention (and customers) to itself, or the rumor is legitimate... and Apple probably won't be too pleased with them if it is. Of course, since we already know that Mac Pro sales in Europe have to be halted in March for regulatory reasons, and Tim Cook has already sent a Tim-o-gram noting that the Mac Pro is getting a 2013 major overhaul -- our money would be on "legitimate." Chinese Source Claims iPhone 5S and 5-Inch iPhone 6 to Launch in 2013 (MacRumors) Another case of the usual vague "friend of a friend" reporting from China. Nothing new to see here. Disruptions: Apple Is Said to Be Developing a Curved-Glass Smart Watch - NYTimes.com Despite the sensational headline and the supposedly aboveboard authority of the Times, this article doesn't really bring anything new to the table. Two people who are supposedly "familiar with the company's explorations" claim that "Apple is experimenting with wristwatch-like devices made of curved glass." I'm sure Apple experiments with lots of things, and the patents it applies for bear that out. Whether those products will ever find their way to store shelves is another matter entirely. I still think an "iWatch" is a niche product at best and a ridiculously useless bauble at worst, but that's without ever having seen leaked prototype components, much less a working model. Naturally, given the provenance of this rumor, the Internet ran wild with it this past week, with several sites making it sound like the iWatch is all but inevitable. You know, just like they have with the Apple HDTV and a pile of other rumorware.
Rumor Roundup: Bigger is better
Not much happened in Apple rumors this week. In fact, probably the most interesting "rumor" this week wasn't really a rumor at all, but rather some decently level-headed analysis from Marco Arment on the possible form factor for the long-rumored "big iPhone." But first... New Details On Apple's Budget iPhone 5 | iLounge Backstage "Unless something major changes between now and its release, we know pretty much what the new low-end iPhone will look like, thanks to reliable sources." That's a bold statement, and it's one I'll happily come back to when/if this product ever actually launches. In the meantime, although iLounge's claims regarding the phone's supposed design are actually pretty plausible, the fact that they're so specific about a product that's not even confirmed to exist is cause for skepticism. Is this the back of Apple's redesigned fifth-generation iPad? (9to5 Mac) In accordance with Betteridge's Law: No. This is supposedly a prototype piece that a Chinese iPad accessory maker somehow got ahold of, but it could just as easily be a mockup they built themselves, extrapolating from the iPad mini's design. That's all anyone is doing anyway when it comes to the next full-size iPad; virtually everyone expects the iPad 5 (or whatever Apple winds up calling it) to look like a bigger version of the currently-shipping iPad mini. So brace yourself for the late-year onslaught of idiocy from bloggers who'll loudly proclaim that Apple is out of ideas and the ship is sinking. Apple reportedly chops Q1 9.7-inch iPad orders in half as consumers clamor for iPad mini (BGR) As told by "sometimes-reliable" Digitimes, which means you'll find more truth at the bottom of a bottle of gin. (Note: TUAW does not condone consuming an entire bottle of gin at one go, no matter how many of these dumb rumors you've been reading.) Rumor: 'G/F2' touchscreen will make Apple's next 9.7" iPad thinner, lighter (AppleInsider) Here's some more Digitimes-sourced nonsense, "which has a spotty track record but has been known to receive advance word of Apple's potential product plans from component suppliers," according to AppleInsider. Digitimes' track record is "spotty" the same way winter in Prudhoe Bay, Alaska is "a bit nippy." A crazier prediction: iPhone Plus is real, and huge (Marco Arment) Marco Arment makes the case for a 4.94-inch giant iPhone, akin to the ginormous Samsung Galaxy phones that are apparently all the rage these days (according to Samsung). Here's the crazy part (contains no actual crazy): he makes a really good point. Say what you will about this mentality, but a not-insignificant portion of the buying public is convinced "bigger is better" when it comes to buying decisions. Bigger cars, bigger boxes of cereal, bigger burgers, bigger houses, and now, paradoxically, bigger phones. The last image in Arment's post, where he compares the iPhone and the theoretical "iPhone Plus" versus two behemoth Samsung phones really drives the point home: whether it makes sense for Apple to build a bigger iPhone or not, there's a market for it. People would buy it. Maybe a lot of people.
Rumor Roundup: Having it both ways
The big "news" this week was, of course, how Apple's record-breaking revenues and profits are proof positive that the company teeters at a precipice, poised to fall to its doom with the slightest puff of breeze. Meanwhile, the rumor machine chundered churned out its usual mix of half-truths, nonsense, and guffaw-worthy speculation. TSMC's big expectations for its 20nm chips suggest negotiations with Apple (AppleInsider) This is pretty bland as rumors go, which means there's probably a kernel of truth in it. TSMC has been rumored to be in the running to build Apple's chips for quite some time, replacing Apple's rival Samsung as lead supplier of A-series chips for iOS devices. Considering Apple's fraught relationship with Samsung, it's really a matter of when, not if, Apple will find someone else to fulfil its chip orders. Two new 4-inch iPhones set to debut this year, iPhone with larger display to launch in 2014 or later (BGR) This report, "sourced" from Digitimes, claims a bigger iPhone won't launch this year after all. Given Digitimes' record on Apple rumors, it's kind of hard to call this one; all I'm saying is if Digitimes said grass was green, I'd be sure to go outside with a camera and make certain before passing that info along. Digitimes refutes its own larger iPhone rumor, now agrees with WSJ/Bloomberg (9to5 Mac) Reporting on the same story, 9to5 Mac notes that Digitimes' new rumor contradicts its own, earlier rumor about the iPhone Grande. I'll give kudos to 9to5 Mac for pointing out the contradiction, but sadly some sites won't see it that way; when it comes time for the end-of-rumor-cycle accuracy checks, Digitimes only gets credit for the one or two things its gets right while the mountains of stuff it gets wrong is swept under the rug. So now, whether an iPhone Grande launches this year or not, someone will credit Digitimes for being right about it. Brilliant move there, Digitimes. Looks like you get to have it both ways on this one. Apple analyst Gene Munster says Apple HDTV with new remote coming in 2013, again (AppleInsider) I'm not exaggerating in the slightest when I say some of my fellow Apple bloggers are starting to become genuinely concerned for Gene Munster's wellbeing. You do have to kind of feel sorry for the guy. He's stuck his neck out there so many times when it comes to the Apple HDTV, and mean old Apple just won't release one. If the Apple HDTV ever does come out, I imagine Munster standing at the announcement event, reeling on his feet, perhaps weeping -- for then he'll have no worlds left to conquer. Apple job listing tips new API, framework for next version of iOS (AppleInsider) EXCLUSIVE: Next version of iOS to have new APIs and frameworks! Just like every major version of iOS before it! More on this incredible, late-breaking story as it becomes available. iPad mini won't help Apple's sliding tablet share, according to new report (BGR) Oh, that sounds bad. Who wrote this "report?" Wait, what? Digitimes? Now those guys, of all people, are piling on the "Apple = DOOMED" bandwagon too? That settles it: Apple will be a trillion-dollar company by the end of the year. Apple's cheaper iPhone could use 'a less powerful lower-end Snapdragon' processor (BGR) Some analyst claims Apple will source cheap, low-end Snapdragon processors for its cheap, low-end iPhone as a means of cost-cutting. Sure, why not? It makes perfect sense for Apple to buy CPUs from a third party, because there are no existing lower-powered options within Apple's own stables, and Apple has shown no commitment to taking ownership the design of its iOS devices' SoC from the transistors on up. I still haven't closed the tag, in case you're wondering. On Apple's iPad 5, iPhone 5S, and Plastic iPhone | iLounge Backstage iLounge makes a grab-bag of claims about upcoming products, few of them managing to stand out from pre-existing rumors. The iPad 5 will supposedly look almost exactly like a bigger version of the iPad mini (I think everyone is expecting this already), the iPhone 5S will look virtually identical to the iPhone 5 (ditto), and Apple may/may not release a cheaper iPhone and/or bigger iPhone sometime between March 2013 and the heat death of the universe. A Few More iPad 5, iPhone 5S, and iPad mini 2G Details | iLounge Backstage The iPhone 5S is supposedly coming in July with a 13-megapixel camera. The iPad 5 and iPad mini 2 allegedly follow in October, and the iPad mini will get a Retina display. We'll see. Photos claim to show components bound for Apple's iPhone 5S and iPhone 6 (AppleInsider) These blurrycam pics of random bits of electronics, divorced from any context as to their use, could be destined for literally almost any electronic device. They could be for an iPhone, but they could also be for a Samsung Galaxy, an HDTV, a dishwasher, a hoverboard, a time machine... anything. Apple ready to release additional iPad model; likely 128GB version (9to5 Mac) Juicy headline. But what's this? "While it is certainly plausible that this new iPad model is the 128GB iPad, we are currently not confident enough to outright claim that, but it seems likely based on the evidence." Hmm. Well, at any rate, this at least seems plausible. Rather than an entirely new iPad, this will supposedly be just an iPad 4 with a 128 GB capacity (or some other differentiating feature), tacked on to the expensive/premium end of the line. Allegedly we can expect to find out what this new iPad is in the very near future. Whatever it turns out to be, I'm sure it'll be Apple's downfall. I mean, what isn't?
Rumor Roundup: Bad at math
This past week was light on rumors but still managed to pack in plenty worth picking apart. A last-minute entry, the supposed "iPhone math" is a particularly good knee-slapper rumor. It's got everything: sketchy Asian source, potential mistranslation, and every last ounce of logic checked at the door. Actually... that's about average for Apple rumors. Home button fingerprint sensor in 'iPhone 5S' would give Apple a new leg up on the competition (AppleInsider) Some analyst thinks Apple will integrate a fingerprint sensor into the next-gen iPhone's Home button. He doesn't have any actual proof, mind you -- not even the always accurate "checks with supply chain sources" -- so he could have said the next iPhone will use powdered unicorn horn for its antenna assembly and had about as much credibility. Apple's next 9.7" iPad to be 'significantly lighter and slimmer' (AppleInsider) Hey, look! It's the same analyst, with the same source: thin air and his imagination. Apple's iPhone business may have already peaked (BGR) Two analysts are a week late to the party, predicting DOOM for Apple's iPhone business. Guys, that's last week's news. This week, Apple's doomed for an entirely different reason. Get with the times. Reuters claims Sharp has all but stopped producing iPad Retina displays (9to5 Mac) Oh no! One of the three suppliers for the full-sized iPad's display has "nearly halted production!" The other two suppliers haven't seen any significant cuts, but don't let that stop us (where "us" means Reuters) from speculating that the iPad mini is cannibalizing sales of the full-sized iPad so much that Apple literally doesn't need to make it anymore... Apple users have been accused of cult-like behavior for decades, but this constant doomsaying from the media seems far more cultish to me. "Look, man, I read the signs, and when the moon is in the seventh house, the sky will be as black as sackcloth, and no one will buy iPhones anymore, and Apple will fall." 4.8-inch iPhone 'Math' reports don't add up (9to5 Mac) This rumor is such a train wreck that 9to5 Mac took the time to pick it to shreds instead of swallowing it whole and reporting it without reservation. Good on them. I don't have much to add aside from what they've written on the subject of a 4.8-inch iPhone "math" except this: if even for a moment you thought it plausible that Apple would release a product called the iPhone math, please seek medical assistance immediately. A subdural hematoma is nothing to trifle with.
Rumor Roundup: The incredible shrinking iPhone
This week was a particularly ridiculous one as far as Apple rumors go. The big "news" this week? Apple is launching a cheaper iPhone! Except that it maybe/probably isn't. Also, Apple's manufacturing orders for the iPhone are shrinking! DOOM! Except that maybe/probably isn't what happened at all... and there may be highly nefarious motives behind people making such claims. Smooth sailing is over for Apple (BGR) Some analyst is full of doom and gloom about Apple's future prospects. He's skeptical that Apple's single-device, high-margin approach to the smartphone market is the right answer, and he holds up Samsung as an example of a company supposedly doing it right. This guy is a perfect example of the "what planet are you living on?" breed of analyst. Supposedly high market share is all that matters, and profits mean nothing. The fact that Apple earns more revenue and profits than Samsung while holding a smaller percentage of the overall market share for smartphones is supposedly cause for alarm, for some reason never adequately (nor logically) explained. It's almost like the only job requirement for analysts is, "minimum five severe concussions over the past six months." New 'higher-end' iPhone reportedly launching by June, low-end model could be coming as well (BGR) Some analyst says the next iPhone will launch in June. Well, stop the presses. "We believe Apple could launch a higher-end iPhone model by the June quarter versus its more typical September/October timing for a new iPhone launch," he says. You believe? Cool story, bro. I believe that I'll win the lottery and become an overnight millionaire sometime within the next twelve months. Does that make me an analyst, too? Apple's next iPhone to reportedly feature larger screen and 'brand new exterior design' (BGR) This story is sourced from Digitimes and therefore has zero credibility. Moving on. Apple Working On a Less-Expensive iPhone - WSJ.com Oh, juicy! It's in the Wall Street Journal, so you just know it has to be true! Apple Said to Develop Cheaper IPhone Model for Late 2013 - Bloomberg Now Bloomberg is saying the same thing? BREAKING EXCLUSIVE: CONFIRMED: Apple will launch cheaper iPhone in 2013 (developing) Low-cost iPhone seen generating $6.5B in 2013 revenue for Apple (AppleInsider) Gene Munster thinks a cheap iPhone could sell like crazy, and he backs that up with a bunch of made-up numbers. I don't know how he does it! But I'm guessing it involves tequila. New cheaper iPhone called 'absolutely awful news' for Apple (BGR) A different analyst took the opposite stance from Munster and said a cheap iPhone doesn't make sense, would likely hurt Apple's financial bottom line, and the whole idea is probably built on flimsy and stupid rumors. Folks, this is a Rumor Roundup first: for the first time ever, I find myself in total agreement with an analyst. I know, I'm scared too. Apple Marketing SVP Phil Schiller seems to deny talk of cheap iPhone (9to5 Mac) Apple's own Phil Schiller (allegedly) said what the level-headed among us knew all along: Apple doesn't give a damn about market share. It cares about making the best products that people will enjoy using, and it cares about making money off of those products. It's that simple. Yes, Apple could make a cheaper iPhone and go for a market share grab, thus overturning the company's entire history of making high-end, high-margin products. But Daring Fireball's John Gruber makes the same point I'd make: Apple won't make a cheap piece of crap just so it can sell ten terrible products when it could sell three great ones instead. Look no farther than the iPad mini, a product that made no sense to me at all when analysts and rumormongers were claiming it'd be a cut-rate $200 device designed with only market share in mind. Instead, it turned out to be a device with a $329 entry point and, with the exception of its display, a design that's arguably superior to the full-size iPad. It doesn't take a genius to think a cheap iPhone might go the same route, which makes the WSJ and Bloomberg's claims look incredibly goofy. Reuters: Cheaper iPhone story withdrawn after 'substantial changes' to China report (AppleInsider) Speaking of incredibly goofy, apparently the original story citing Phil Schiller got changed after the fact, and no one is really clear how or why. All that means is we can look forward to three more months of winter stupid cheap iPhone rumors. 2013 smart TVs dismissed as 'not that smart,' leaving opportunity for Apple (AppleInsider) Some analyst (correctly) says current smart TVs aren't all that great, and he thinks the only way the devices will really come into their own is if Apple steps up to the plate. Whether or not it's in Apple's best interests to do so is an exercise left to the reader. (Hint: hahaha, no.) Rumor: Fifth-gen iPad, second-gen iPad mini to debut in March (AppleInsider) Some analyst thinks the next-gen iPads are launching a month and a half from now. His proof? "Checks with industry sources at CES." Yeah, about that... if my Twitter feed last week was any indication, half the people at CES were drunk, and the other half had influenza. Probably not the best sources. Demand for cheaper iPhones may have hurt Apple's holiday quarter (BGR) When does an iPhone sell too well? When some analyst says so. Apparently Apple sold so many iPhone 4 units last quarter that the two-year-old handset supposedly hurt sales of the new iPhone 5. This is a strange claim to make weeks before Apple releases its actual sales numbers, but as we'll see, this analyst isn't the only one making numbers up out of thin air. Apple Cuts Orders for iPhone Parts - WSJ.com Here it is, the article that launched 1000 posts this week. Supposedly, according to the Journal, "Apple's orders for iPhone 5 screens for the January-March quarter, for example, have dropped to roughly half of what the company had previously planned to order." That's the kind of news that you might expect to send Apple's stock into a downward spiral. And, predictably, it did. But what's really going on here? The strange math of Apple's alleged massive iPhone 5 order cuts (BGR) "In what world did Apple expect to order components for 65 million iPhone 5 handsets in the seasonally soft March quarter?" BGR asks. Valid question. A question just as good: how do I suddenly, and for the first time ever, find myself nodding in agreement with BGR? Apple's earnings per share could decline for first time in almost a decade (BGR) Some analyst joins the fray and says "DOOM, DOOOOOM" in an attempt to look as silly as possible hours after Apple releases its quarterly earnings statement. iPhone 5 order cuts dismissed as 'not news,' simply 'noise' (AppleInsider) Okay, what's going on here? Where are all these intelligent, rational analysts coming from, and why don't they write about Apple more often? iPhone 5 demand 'robust,' order cuts likely stem from improved yields & supplier shifts (AppleInsider) Another analyst adds to the chorus of people disagreeing with the WSJ's reports of doom and destruction for Apple's iPhone 5 sales. iPhone 5 order cuts reportedly not as severe as claimed (BGR) And another. What is this all adding up to? That's a very good question, and it's one that many bloggers have tried to answer over the past few days. Once again I find myself agreeing with John Gruber; over the past few days he's linked to and commented on multiple pieces pointing to the possibility that the rumors of Apple's demise were greatly exaggerated, and with deliberate purpose: to drive the stock price lower immediately before Apple announces its earnings, almost undoubtedly driving the stock price back up. It's an age-old game. Buy low, sell high. It's the basis of getting rich off Wall Street stocks. So it stands to reason that if you can find a way to drive AAPL down below $500 when speculation points to the stock being worth 1.5 to 2 times that much, and you can find a way to do that without getting caught, you stand to reap huge financial rewards. Hence, "people familiar with the matter" making grandiose claims about tanking sales for the iPhone 5, Apple's biggest moneymaker, right before Apple announces its quarterly earnings. I'm not saying that is what's happening here (end legal disclaimer), but if it walks like a duck... Apple to begin preliminary 'iPhone 5S' builds in March for June/July launch - report (AppleInsider) What AppleInsider calls a "report" I instead call "random daydreaming from some analyst." Seriously, can anyone give me a rational explanation for why so many blogs parrot analysts' "notes to investors" as if they're actual news? Report: 2013 budget iPhone to sport plastic shell, perhaps metal internal parts (9to5 Mac) Another blog plays fast and loose with the word "report" by citing Digitimes as if it's a reputable source. Apple's 2013 Product Roadmap Predictions: Multiple iPhones, Retina iPad Mini, All-Retina MacBook Pros (MacRumors) Some analyst went the extra mile and predicted Apple's product roadmap for the entire year. Normally I'd be disposed to make fun of anyone so obviously overambitious... but A) this particular analyst has been right before, and B) his predictions actually sound entirely reasonable for the most part. Not a single Apple HDTV, smart watch, or toaster/fridge to be found. It's eerie. This past week of rumors was indeed pretty crazy. I don't know what's weirder: that the Wall Street Journal is starting to sound more and more like Digitimes, or that analysts are finally starting to say things about Apple that make rational sense. I feel like I've fallen down the rabbit hole.
Rumor Roundup: Light on evidence
This past week was relatively light on rumors, and as usual those rumors were light on evidence... but when has that ever stopped anyone from pontificating about Apple? No HDTV from Apple in 2013, according to new report (BGR) Some analyst is now saying the Apple HDTV won't launch in 2013. This calls for a no-holds-barred cage match between him and Gene Munster in Madison Square Garden. Winner take all, where "all" is a Google TV with an Apple sticker slapped on the back. Rumor: Apple evaluating new 'touch-on display' tech for next iPhone (AppleInsider) Apple is said to be investigating new display technology that could replace the current "in-cell" display tech in the iPhone 5. "In cell" touch sensors have caused some minor input difficulties in some use cases, so there's a sense of plausibility to this report. The fact that this "report out of China" isn't sourced from Digitimes lends it even more credibility. Corning's third-gen Gorilla Glass could be bound for next iPhone, iPad (AppleInsider) Corning has only stated that third-gen Gorilla Glass exists; details on pricing and availability are yet to be revealed. That hasn't stopped people from speculating the material will find its way into next-gen Apple products. If any of the rumors pointing to an early spring launch of the next iPhone and iPad are true, that doesn't seem likely. Apple's Pandora-like iRadio Service to Launch in 2013? (MacRumors) Some analyst says Apple will finally launch a music streaming service this year, as foretold in years worth of rumors. As proof, he says that -- haha, just kidding. This "report" came from an analyst. He doesn't have any proof. Just like the rest of these so-called analysts, he's the 21st century equivalent of some transient standing on a Brooklyn street corner ranting and raving about the Apocalypse. Put a three-piece suit on that guy and have him rant and rave about Apple instead, and somehow it becomes newsworthy. That Apple/Waze Deal Hits A Roadblock - That Roadblock Being Reality (Not Happening) | TechCrunch Remember last week, when I said not to get too excited about those rumors that Apple was going to buy Waze? Those were good times. Oh, how we laughed. Could Disney be working with Apple on a new Gaming Console Called Toy Box? According to Betteridge's Law of Headlines, any headline that asks a yes/no question can invariably be answered with a no. In fact, Patently Apple gives us the "no" answer to its own headline, though you have to get pretty deep into the text to find it: "While it's true that Apple's late CEO Steve Jobs was Disney's largest shareholder after his sale of Pixar and that Apple has hinted in a number of patents that they may expand their push into video gaming, there's still no definitive proof as of yet to connect Apple to this project." Well, there you go then. I don't know about you, but my parents raised me to believe "no definitive proof" equals "not gonna happen."
Rumor Roundup: Resolutions are made to be broken
"My 2013 New Year's resolutions: Stop taking analysts' nonsense seriously, stop sourcing from Digitimes and do some basic fact-checking and/or engage common sense prior to publication." --None of the Apple rumor blogs 2013 is off to a blazing start, with all kinds of juicy, poorly-sourced and ultimately dumb rumors to deconstruct. Apple reportedly moving Mac mini production to US with Foxconn (9to5 Mac) "Digitimes has shed more light on" are the opening words of this post. Let's just stop right there. Digitimes never sheds light on anything except tech blogs' inability (or unwillingness) to consider the credibility or validity of their sources. For example, when I consider the source of this story and its infamously poor track record, I find it slightly more likely that Apple will move Mac mini production to Antarctica. Apple reportedly continuing talks with Sharp over IGZO display panels for iOS devices (9to5 Mac) "Digitimes reports that" -- same story here. Poorly sourced rumor, zero proof. This isn't even the first time this claim has been made; the past few iOS devices were supposedly going to feature this type of display panel, if "sources" like Digitimes are to be believed (hint: they're not). MacBook Air, MacBook Pro refreshes expected June 2013 with same designs, new processors (9to5 Mac) "Digitimes expects Apple to unveil" blah blah, yadda yadda. I'm pretty sure (thanks to "people familiar with the matter") that Digitimes cobbles together its stories by letting a cocker spaniel loose in a room full of colored scraps of paper with random tech buzzwords and dates scribbled on them. Whichever papers the dog eventually soils are gathered and presented to the tech community -- and, sadly, almost always accepted as gospel. Apple A6 X processor production reportedly goes from Samsung to TSMC, trial set to begin this quarter (9to5 Mac) For a change of pace, here's a story not sourced from Digitimes, which lends it an air of credibility. Apple has been rumored to be moving away from Samsung for processor production for quite some time, and considering the bitter rivalry between the two companies, it makes perfect strategic sense. Apple and Intel Working on Bluetooth Smart Watch for 2013 Launch? (MacRumors) Man, this one exploded all over the internet this past week. It's as though the collective common sense of the Apple blogging community suddenly went on vacation to Patagonia. Rumors of an Apple-branded "smart watch" began almost the instant the invitingly wearable sixth-generation iPod nano debuted in September 2010. "You could totally wear that as a watch!" people mused, and the illogical leap to "Apple might be building a watch!" wasn't far behind. Two years later, there's no credible evidence that Apple is building a smart watch. Two things decidedly point in the other direction, in fact. First, Apple abandoned the wearable form factor for the iPod nano's 2012 redesign. Second, nobody freaking wears watches anymore. A "smart watch" is seriously the dumbest idea ever, and if Apple made this product tech blogs would be climbing over one another to shout about how Apple is DOOMED because it's focused on obsolete technology. "What's next," someone like Dan Lyons might say, "an Apple-branded buggy whip?" "Hey, you numbskull, I might actually buy and use a smart watch," you're already furiously typing in the comments below. Congratulations. You're the 1 percent. No one else cares. Developers begin seeing new Apple iPhone hardware and iOS 7 in usage logs - The Next Web "BREAKSCLUSIVE: Apple developing and testing new products, software." As my colleague Richard Gaywood points out, you need only play Opposites Day with this story to see how completely meaningless it is. Apple-built wearable computers seen as long-term replacement for iPhone (AppleInsider) Gene "The Apple HDTV is coming out this year for sure" Munster thinks Apple's future lies in "wearable computing" -- things like the mythical Apple-branded "smart watch" or something similar to Google Glasses. Just as a fun exercise, look at the hypothetical smart watch in the picture associated with that AppleInsider article and ask yourself what problem, if any, the device solves. "I can see my messages on it!" you may say. Yes... and then you have to get your iPhone out of your pocket to reply to them. "I can control some of my phone's functions with it!" You can do the same thing with the remote controls built into the headphones. "Um... I can tell time on it?" Well, you got me there. 'iPhone 5S' to reportedly launch by June with multiple color options and two different display sizes (BGR) Some analyst thinks the next iPhone will come in multiple colors and have two different display sizes. He doesn't offer any proof other than a vague allusion to "supplier checks," and at least half of his assertions make no sense at all -- why in seven hells would Apple launch an iPhone 5S with two different display sizes? "Market share expansion" is apparently the answer to this question according to the analyst, with the smaller-screened phone offered as a lower-cost option. You analysts are seriously going to beat on this "low-cost iPhone" drum all year long, aren't you? And somehow, you're going to keep getting paid for that. The mind reels. Apple Teams Up With Broadcom For 802.11ac Enabled Macs (TheNextWeb) This sounds credible at first glance, but keep in mind this is coming from the same site that was "almost certain" the iPhone 5 and next-gen iPad would have fingerprint reading tech. Time will tell if the "sources familiar with Apple's plans" actually are familiar with those plans at all. Is Apple Plotting A Route To A Waze Acquisition? Rumours On The Road Point To Yes | TechCrunch Any time a story like this comes out, where Apple is rumored to buy "Company X you may actually have heard of," it's essential to keep one's excitement in check and take a "wait and see" approach. Apple was rumored to be in talks to buy Twitter so many times that it became almost a monthly ritual for awhile. Aaaaand... Apple never bought Twitter, and probably never will. Whether or not it makes sense for Apple to acquire Waze for its crowdsourced mapping data, I'll believe it when I see it.
Rumor Roundup: Silly season
Just because the holiday season is upon us, that doesn't mean people have stopped idly speculating about non-existent Apple products or ruminating on the company's impending downfall. Far from it! In fact, if you take the pundits seriously (but seriously... don't do that), the Apple HDTV is definitely coming out in 2013. And if it doesn't, Apple is definitely doomed. Somehow. All I Want for Christmas Is My Apple TV -- Jeremy Allaire -- Voices -- AllThingsD Brightcove's CEO went on a lengthy speculative bent about what the Apple HDTV might be, what it might look like and how it could save the world from the depredations of SPECTRE Comcast. There's just one problem: The guy is totally making stuff up. He has no proof for anything he's said, especially this knee-slapper: "There's every reason to expect the new product to launch in 2013." Just like there was in 2012, 2011, and 2010. I could say the Apple HDTV will have a built-in beer dispenser and be as accurate as this guy. Apple predicted to build cheaper 'iPhone for the masses' (AppleInsider) Gene Munster took time off from his perennial ravings on the Apple HDTV and instead directed his attention to another nonsensical chestnut: the el-cheapo "iPhone for everyone." Once again, I find it incredible these people are actually paid to write this stuff; Apple doesn't sell cheap crap just to expand its market share. Tim Cook has blatantly said so, multiple times, as did Steve Jobs before him. Apple does not care about market share. It cares about high profit margins and customer experience, in roughly that order. Period. Android growth prior to iPhone 5 launch further established market dominance (AppleInsider) Here's another analyst blinded by market share to the expense of every other number that matters, such as revenues, profits and a company's cash on hand. No, Android is "winning" because more people are buying Android-based handsets than iPhones. This is a very old argument -- one that's been done to death and is one of the most epic clichés in all of tech right now -- and it never stops being funny. Apple in Talks With Foursquare About Data-Sharing Deal (Wall Street Journal) Apple may be getting ready to make a deal with Foursquare to incorporate crowdsourced data into its Maps app. Unlike the majority of Apple rumors, this one actually makes logical sense; it would certainly be a swift means of improving data in Apple Maps. I think we can all agree that's something that needs to happen as quickly as possible. 'Project Azalea' - A TSMC Chip Factory Dedicated to Building Processors for iDevices? (MacRumors) Taiwanese chipmaker TSMC has long been rumored to supplant Samsung as the major provider for Apple's A-series "system on a chip" for iOS devices, and further rumors now suggest the company may be considering building a factory in either New York or Oregon. Samsung, who currently supplies A4, A5 and A6 chips for Apple, supplies many (if not most) of those from a factory in Texas. Rumor: Apple moving up next-gen iPad mini production, release date still unknown (AppleInsider) Some analyst, citing "Asian supply chain sources," claims the next-gen iPad mini will launch earlier than expected. Sounds legit! Except for the part where he "notes the information is of little use as no rumors have surfaced pertaining to the next-gen mini's release." Well, that's... a relief? I guess that's one word for it. Report: Hon Hai source says 46 to 55-inch Apple TV set in testing, no panel supplier confirmed, 2013 launch unlikely (9to5 Mac) The meat of this story is pretty much all there in the headline. It manages to bolster some rumors (Apple testing HDTV prototypes) while slamming others (panel suppliers already selected, launch imminent). The lesson here? Until we start seeing actual leaked parts, don't buy the HDTV hype. Without an 'iTV,' Apple's growth could shrink to the single digits by 2015 (BGR) Some analyst says that unless Apple introduces a low-cost iPhone or HDTV, it's pretty much doomed. This raises a serious question: with so many analysts all saying the same stupid thing at once, is it possible something got into their food supply? Something... sinister? Get Langley on the line, we need a field agent to investigate this immediately. Google/Motorola Developing Flagship Phone to Compete with Apple and Samsung (MacRumors) Nexus phones have been such a huge success so far that Google is reportedly going the same route that Microsoft has with its Surface tablet -- another doorbuster product -- and preparing to launch yet another in-house developed smartphone likely to compete with its own partners far more than it will with Apple's devices. Well... good luck, Google. Rumor: Fifth-gen iPad to debut in March with iPad mini design cues (AppleInsider) "Hit-or-miss" blog Mac Otakara claims a thinner, lighter full-size iPad is due in March according to "people familiar with the matter." Mac Otakara does occasionally get its rumors right -- far more often than DigiTimes does at any rate -- so it'll be interesting to see if this one pans out. If it does, stay tuned for the epic nerd rage from all the people who bought fourth-gen iPads.
Rumor Roundup: Taking analysts way too seriously
In the absence of much real news to report on this week, the rumor blogs did what they do best in times of drought: they took so-called "analysts" way too seriously. I've always thought of "analysts" as the tech world's equivalent of astrologers -- they generally keep things vague enough to make it difficult to call them out for being wrong right away, and when they are wrong (which they nearly always are), almost no one calls them on it. Yet just like astrologers, for some reason these people continue to get space right next to actual news items. It's baffling. Analyst thinks 'iPhone 5S' due in June with better camera, NFC, multiple color options (9to5 Mac) This is a perfect example of what I'm talking about. Some guy said the next iPhone will come out in June, with multiple colors and other features. His proof? Trick question, because he doesn't have any. So why was it worth reporting on what this guy said at all? Is he an expert on Apple's supply chain? A former Apple executive with decent insight into the company's inner workings? Nope, he's just some guy. He knows as much about the next iPhone as you do: virtually nothing. Analyst: Apple could purchase partner TomTom to accelerate improvements to Maps app (9to5 Mac) Apple might buy navigation company TomTom... according to some analyst who offers no concrete proof of this claim whatsoever. Yet again we have some guy sitting around daydreaming about what Apple might do without offering a bit of evidence, and because he works for some kind of financial firm, that somehow algebraically renders his musings as newsworthy. 47% of consumers interested in Apple television, willing to pay 20% premium (AppleInsider) This is one step farther removed from anything resembling real news because it's a consumer survey that a bunch of analysts ran. Absolutely the only tale the survey's numbers tell is consumers supposedly have pent-up interest in an Apple-branded TV set. It says nothing at all about whether or not Apple will actually build such a device, rendering the whole exercise pretty much moot. Where is Apple's 'next big thing'? (BGR) Another analyst says that Apple needs to launch its next big thing in 2013 in order to turn its dwindling stock price around, and that "next big thing" must inevitably be an HDTV. Keep in mind that in spite of its sliding stock price, Apple is still one of the most profitable companies on Earth right now. Also keep in mind that HDTVs have never been particularly profitable devices. Also keep in mind that intelligent people who still have a grip on their rationality, such as former Apple executive Jean-Louis Gassée, think there's no chance Apple will make a traditional HDTV set. Once you have all those things in mind, it starts to become really unclear why this analyst's ravings were worth taking seriously. Hey, speaking of "sources" that aren't worth taking seriously... Digitimes claims next iPad mini to have higher-res display, next 9.7-inch iPad to be lighter (9to5 Mac) 9to5 Mac does us all a huge favor here. By citing Digitimes as the source in the headline itself, it makes it completely unnecessary to read the story that follows. Even if the stars somehow align and Digitimes manages to get this one right, they're not really saying anything original here; virtually everyone expects (demands?) the iPad mini's display will go Retina quality eventually, and the same goes for the iPad grande's supposed weight loss regimen. The biggest Apple-related rumor this week came from the Wall Street Journal, which claimed that those always-reliable "sources in the Asian supply chain" told it Apple has been testing designs for an HDTV. The story itself isn't quite as interesting as the way various blogs reacted to it. WSJ: Apple testing 'several' HDTV designs with Asian manufacturers (AppleInsider) Straightforward re-write of the WSJ story. WSJ: Apple testing several TV set designs with component suppliers, not considered a 'formal project yet' (9to5 Mac) Pretty much the same, just a shorter summary. WSJ reports Apple has tested TV designs -- don't get too excited (Engadget) Brief report with a bit of analysis on why TV continues to be a tough nut for Apple (or anyone) to crack. Designs reportedly in the works for Apple-created TV, but in "early stages" (Ars Technica) Short synopsis of the WSJ story, followed by a big, welcome bucket of cold water thrown on the idea that any of this means Apple-branded HDTVs showing up on store shelves any time soon. Apple Testing Television Set Prototypes, 'Isn't a Formal Project Yet' (Mac Rumors) Another short summary, with more cold water on the idea that an Apple HDTV launch is imminent. WSJ: Apple is developing a TV (BGR) Breathless shouting from the rooftops: APPLE IS BUILDING AN HDTV!!!* (*where "building" means "engineering prototypes, and maybe not even that")
Rumor Roundup: 'An area of intense interest'
Last week was pretty dead as far as rumors so, and this one was only marginally better. For the most part rumors focused on furious speculation regarding what Tim Cook could have meant when, in a recent interview, he called TV "an area of intense interest." That naturally led more credulous bloggers to speculate that the long-awaited Apple HDTV is just over the horizon (as it has been for several years now), but that's not to say it's the only harebrained subject the rumor blogs hit this week. Apple predictions for 2013: Entry-level iPhone, Apple HDTV and a MacBook Air with iOS (BGR) Some analyst came out with three "predictions" that would almost be hilarious if they weren't predictions that literally dozens of other analysts have been making for years. First, a low-cost iPhone designed to address the mass market of... um... people who aren't already buying iPhones. This analyst conveniently ignores Apple's entire product history of producing lower numbers of high-margin, high-profit goods rather than going for market share with low-cost junk, and his next two predictions aren't any more intelligent: an Apple HDTV and a MacBook Air running iOS instead of OS X. Because that device would make any sense at all. Here's my prediction for 2013: absolutely none of this guy's predictions will come anywhere close to coming true. Apple again predicted to build low-cost iPhone for emerging markets (AppleInsider) Some other me-too analyst dragged out the same tired meme as the other one: Apple will produce a low-cost iPhone to address "emerging markets" and go after the low-end smartphone market. It makes perfect sense, because if there's one thing Apple's famous for, it's cutting corners and costs in order to go after the low-end market. Wait. No. First Claimed Images of iPhone 5S Rear Shell Surface (MacRumors) The iPhone 5 is barely out of its diapers, yet we already have purported images of "iPhone 5S" parts surfacing. MacRumors at least takes pains to explain that this could easily represent a prototype part; it could also be a slightly tweaked version of existing parts used in the iPhone 5. That didn't stop people from leaping to the conclusion that the next-gen iPhone will debut six months after the iPhone 5's launch, though. Some cited the quick six-month turnaround between the "new iPad" and its fourth-generation successor as precedent, but the one thing Apple seems to be getting good at lately is turning precedent on its head. Especially if it's the one establishing the precedent in the first place. Apple forecast to sell as many as 5M T-Mobile iPhones in first year (AppleInsider) Not soon after we heard rumors (later confirmed, apparently) that Apple would start selling T-Mobile compatible iPhones in the States, at least one analyst was quick out the gate with a prediction of how many millions of iPhones the long-spurned mobile network would sell in the first year. The magic number, pulled from... somewhere... is 5 million. How he came up with that number is anyone's guess. Let's see... I'm currently surfing on a cocktail of painkillers designed to help me cope with injuries I sustained in a motorcycle crash a few weeks back, so let me consult the Fates and see what they say... A HA! Apple will sell 6 million iPhones on T-Mobile next year. Take that, analysts! Full-fledged television considered 'more in tune' with Apple than simple set-top box (AppleInsider) After Tim Cook's remarks during an interview this week that television was "an area of intense interest" for Apple, speculation ran rampant over what he could have meant by that. The analyst responsible for the linked article is an example of speculation farthest afield from anything making logical sense. A big, bulky, low-margin product like an HDTV, which people will only replace or upgrade once or twice a decade, is somehow "more in tune" with Apple's strategy than a small box, an accessory, an almost throwaway little thing like the current Apple TV puck? Someone hasn't been paying attention to Apple's "tune" at all, apparently. Apple's upcoming iOS update to unlock full Bluetooth keyboard control for Apple TV (9to5 Mac) Hey! Finally, a rumor that actually makes sense and has proof, with screenshots and everything. Apparently the latest Apple TV beta "finally" enables Bluetooth functionality that has, until now, lain dormant and unused inside the device. It's a tiny leap forward -- all this does is let you use wireless keyboards to navigate and search for content -- but it could potentially open the door to all kinds of interesting accessorizing with Apple's little hobby box in the future. That's all for this week. Since Tim Cook doesn't have any major interviews scheduled for next week (that we know of), it's probable the rumor well will be a little drier next week.
Rumor Roundup: The well is dry
Not much happened in the realm of Apple rumors this week. With the end of the year approaching, and Apple's product line pretty much cemented in place for the next quarter or so, the usual roar of rumors has died down to a tiny buzz. In biggest blow yet, Apple to reportedly dump Samsung as chip supplier (BGR) This isn't the first time we've heard rumors that Apple is leaning toward alternate chip suppliers for its iOS devices. However, BGR does us all a disservice by burying the source for this story in its final paragraph; seriously, I had to read almost that entire story before finding out it was sourced from Digitimes? Bad form. 'Speculation is Heightening' for Potential T-Mobile USA iPhone Announcement Next Week (MacRumors) There's no direct evidence for this, only "heightening speculation" that T-Mobile will be getting the iPhone at long last. Given the lack of evidence and the fact that speculation has heightened along this front before with no results, I wouldn't get your hopes up if you're a fan of both T-Mobile and the iPhone. That's seriously all there is to report this week. Maybe next week the rumor blogs will give us more to chew on.
Rumor Roundup: The boy who cried Apple HDTV
It's a brief Rumor Roundup this week, partly because there weren't many rumors out there, partly because motorcycle accident + four broken ribs + codeine = very difficult to write coherently. Remember, kids, the rubber parts of the motorcycle are the ones that go on the ground. The goal is to keep them there! Early builds of Apple's upcoming OS X 10.9 include Siri and Maps integration (AppleInsider) OS X 10.9 is already in testing within Apple's labs, and it seems that Siri and Apple Maps may be making their way "Back to the Mac" from iOS devices. I, for one, am looking forward to the day when I can ask my Mac, "Book an appointment with the optometrist," only to have my Mac book an appointment with "the atomic tryst" instead. (The Atomic Tryst is the name of my Arcade Fire cover band.) Apple reportedly prepping next-generation iPhone for mid-2013 launch (BGR) "New claims have emerged from the Far East that further support a summertime launch for Apple's next iPhone," BGR writes. Sounds juicy. "Digitimes cites unnamed market observers" -- BZZZZT, WRONG. Next. Apple television predicted to headline three core product launches in 2013 (AppleInsider) Gene Munster is pounding the Apple HDTV drum yet again. Even though the device didn't show up on shelves in 2012, 2011, 2010 or any other year that Munster claimed it would, Munster essentially says, "2013 is totally going to be different, guys. It's seriously coming this time. Guys? Guys, where are you going?" Microsoft rumored to take on Apple TV with Xbox-branded set-top box in 2013 (AppleInsider) In addition to the "sequel" to its videogame console, the Xbox 360, Microsoft reportedly plans to release a smaller version intended to compete with the US$99 Apple TV. Like that device, the "Xbox mini" (my name for it, no one else's) the box will be used primarily for streaming media. It may also be used for "casual gaming," which almost certainly means yet another version of Angry Birds for you to buy. The device will run Windows 8 as well, so... well, good luck with that.
Rumor Roundup: Yes, no, maybe so
There weren't many rumors this week, but there were two hilarious instances of rumors almost immediately being contradicted by other sources. Fact-checking isn't a four-letter word, guys. It's one four-letter word, a hyphen, and... I've lost you, haven't I? Oh well. Rumor: Release of new iMacs may be delayed into 2013 (AppleInsider) As noted today, supplies are constrained, but iMacs are still expected to be available on schedule. Apple to Begin Trial Production of iPhone 5S for Earlier Than Expected Launch? (MacRumors) "DigiTimes relays a report," is as far as I got before I closed the browser tab. Out of morbid curiosity, I reopened it and found that MacRumors considered the actual source, the Commercial Times, to have a "spotty record." It's nothing to be ashamed of; my dog also had a spotty record until I got her house trained. Reports out of Asia: New iPhone 5S, iPad & Apple TV to launch in 1st half of 2013, Samsung hiking prices on Apple processors | 9to5Mac The iPhone 5S, iPad, and Apple TV bits came from the same "spotty" source, so they can safely be ignored. The story about Samsung increasing prices on A5 and A6 processors set off a firestorm across the Apple blogosphere this week, however, with pretty much everyone speculating it was a direct counter-reaction to Apple's victory in its patent suit against Samsung. Small problem... Report: Samsung will not increase price of A-series processors (9to5 Mac) An "unnamed Samsung official" denied the price increase. Oh, well. I guess this means we've all learned our lesson, and we'll never cite a sketchy source on a sensationalistic topic ever again. Oh, wait. Apple HDTV announcement said to be 'imminent' (BGR) Some analyst says the long-awaited, never-proven-to-exist Apple HDTV is "imminent." Obviously this guy we've never heard of must be a credible source familiar with the matter, because this story got plastered all over my RSS feed. Small problem... Apple HDTV's 'imminent' release shot down in new report (BGR) A person with a little more credibility concerning all things Apple, namely AllThingsD's John Paczkowski, doused this rumor with a bucket of logical, cold water. That naturally didn't get quite as much attention as the rumor itself; the outrageous claims always get more attention than the arguments debunking them. Isn't that right, every single political pundit ever?
Rumor Roundup: Probation violation
Following Apple's most recent event, a solid two weeks went by with no rumors of consequence. It turns out that was just probation. The rumors have returned -- just a trickle compared to the flood of the past few months, but there nonetheless. iPad mini 2 Retina display tipped already in pipeline from AUO (SlashGear) One of the suppliers for the current iPad mini's display is reportedly already preparing a 2,048 x 1,536 Retina display for the second-generation model, due for release just under a year from now. This is good news, because it gives iPad mini owners with an over-inflated sense of entitlement many months to stoke the fires of their nerd rage over the iPad mini 2's release. Exclusive: Microsoft Office for iPhone, iPad, and Android revealed | The Verge I'm not sure whether to classify this as a "rumor" or not since it was unveiled via a press release. Nevertheless, Microsoft Office is supposedly coming to iOS next year -- as a viewer-only app. If you want to actually edit Office documents, you'll have to purchase a subscription. Or you can do what I'm going to do: ignore these apps altogether and go on happily using anything but Office. Apple not likely to ditch Intel chips for Macs in near future (Macworld) This past week, multiple outlets came out with the perennial old story that Apple is planning to ditch Intel processors in favor of its own ARM-powered CPUs. Anyone possessing a passing familiarity with the enormous gulf in processing capability between the most powerful ARM A6 and the weakest Intel i5 might laugh this off as implausible, but that didn't stop the Internet's echochamber from sounding off for most of the week. Macworld's take on the matter seems the most sane to me, and I'm not just saying that because its position agrees with mine. That's all of this week's credible rumors out of the way. Let's see what our old pal Digitimes is up to. Rumor: Samsung expecting to lose a portion of orders for future Apple chips (AppleInsider) The real news here is AppleInsider has downgraded Digitimes from "sometimes reliable" to "hit-or-miss." Apple unlikely to hit MacBook growth target (BGR) Digitimes thinks Apple won't make its 2012 target for MacBook growth because its "new MacBooks" didn't launch until late October. The hit-or-miss publication apparently doesn't remember that Apple actually refreshed its entire MacBook lineup at WWDC in June. Only the Retina display 13-inch MacBook Pro is newer. That's it for this week's rumors. The well is likely to be this dry or drier for the rest of this year; Apple's product lineup is likely locked down for the next few months at least.
