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Researchers think chaos theory can get us past Moore's Law
Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel, believed that the number of transistors on an integrated circuit would double every year or two. And, to his credit, that rule pretty much held out between 1965 and 2015, when the laws of physics began to get in the way. Now, researchers at North Carolina State believe that we don't need to obsess over ever-smaller transistors to make chips even more powerful. Instead, they've turned to chaos theory in the hope that mixing things up will provide the performance boost that Intel can't.
Roadmap says transistors will stop shrinking in 5 years
Whether or not Moore's Law on complexity has always held true, you've had one constant in the semiconductor world: chip makers would always find a way to shrink transistors and create more powerful chips without increasing size or power consumption. However, even that one hint of predictability might soon disappear. The Semiconductor Industry Association (which includes the likes of IBM and Intel) has published a roadmap which expects transistors to stop shrinking after 2021. Simply speaking, it might not be financial practical to keep reducing transistor sizes -- companies might not recoup the costs. Instead, they may focus on 3D chips an other technologies that make better use of available space.
Intel is officially slowing down the pace of CPU releases
To make consumers crave its next generation of CPUs, Intel has produced chips on a yearly tick-tock cycle for the last decade. Thanks to the shrinking die sizes, that process may permanently become a three-step, according to financial documents spotted by Motley Fool. The company has already had significant issues going from 22- to 14-nanometers, and it extended the latter to a third generation with "Kaby Lake" chips. That was the first break from tick-tock, but Intel has now confirmed that the longer rhythm, which it calls "process, architecture, optimization (PAO)" will continue for its upcoming 10-nanometer chips.
The law that predicts computing power turns 50
Today represents a historic milestone in technology: It's the 50th anniversary of Moore's Law, the observation that the complexity of computer chips tends to double at a regular rate. On April 19th, 1965, Fairchild's Gordon Moore (later to co-found Intel) published an article noting that the number of components in integrated circuits had not only doubled every year up to that point, but also would continue at that pace for at least a decade. He would later revise that guideline to every two years, but the concept of an unofficial law of progress stuck. It not only foresaw the rapid expansion of computing power, but also frequently served as a target -- effectively, it became a self-fulfilling prophecy.
ARM chief tosses Moore's Law out with the trash, says efficiency rules all
ARM CEO Warren East already has a tendency to be more than a bit outspoken on the future of computing, and he just escalated the war of words with an assault on the industry's sacred cow: Moore's Law. After some prompting by MIT Technology Review during a chat, East argued that power efficiency is "actually what matters," whether it's a phone or a server farm. Making ever more complex and power-hungry processors to obey Moore's Law just limits how many chips you can fit in a given space, he said. Not that the executive is about to accept Intel's position that ARM isn't meant for performance, as he saw the architecture scaling to high speeds whenever there was a large enough power supply to back it up. East's talk is a bit long on theory and short on practice as of today -- a Samsung Chromebook isn't going to make Gordon Moore have second thoughts -- but it's food for thought in an era where ARM is growing fast, and even Microsoft isn't convinced that speed rules everything.
Koomey's law heckles Moore's in the post-PC world
Around the same time most years, (2007, 2009, 2010), someone heralds the death of Moore's law. This time it's Stanford University's Dr. Jonathan Koomey, who has found that energy efficiency roughly doubles every two years. With the rise of mobile devices, we care less if our phones and tablets can outpace a desktop and more about if a full charge will last the duration of our commute -- reducing the importance of Moore's law. Historically, efficiency has been a secondary concern as manufacturers built ever faster CPUs, but Koomey believes there is enormous room for improvement. In 1985, Dr. Richard Feynman calculated an efficiency upper limit of Factor 100 Billion -- since then we've only managed to achieve Factor 40,000. Let's just hope Quantum Computing goes mainstream before next autumn so we can get on with more important things.
Today marks 50th anniversary of first silicon integrated circuit patent (and the entire computing industry)
There's little question that the last 50 years have represented the most innovative half-century in human history, and today marks the anniversary of the invention that started it all: the silicon-based integrated circuit. Robert Noyce received the landmark US patent on April 25, 1961, going on to found Intel Corporation with Gordon E. Moore (of Moore's Law fame) in 1968. He wasn't the first to invent the integrated circuit -- the inventor of the pocket calculator Jack Kilby patented a similar technology on a germanium wafer for Texas Instruments a few months prior. Noyce's silicon version stuck, however, and is responsible for Moore's estimated $3.7 billion net worth, not to mention the success of the entire computing industry. Holding 16 other patents and credited as a mentor of Steve Jobs, Noyce was awarded the National Medal of Technology in 1987, and continued to shape the computing industry until his death in 1990. If Moore's Law continues to hold true, as we anticipate it will, we expect the next 50 years to be even more exciting than the last. Let's meet back here in 2061.
Physicists calculate the end of Moore's Law, clearly don't believe in Moore's Law
If you're looking for pundits with an end date for Moore's Law, you don't have to look far. You also don't have to look far to find a gaggle of loonies who just knew the world was ending in Y2K, so make of that what you will. The latest duo looking to call the demise of the processor mantra that has held true for two score comes from Boston University, with physicists Lev Levitin and Tommaso Toffoli asserting that a quantum limit would be achieved in around 75 to 80 years. Scott Aaronson, an attention-getter at MIT, expects that very same limit to be hit in just 20 years. Of course, there's plenty of technobabble to explain the what's and how's behind all this, but considering that the brainiacs of the world can't even agree with Gordon Moore's own doomsday date, we're choosing to plug our ears and keep on believin' for now. Bonus video after the break. [Via Slashdot]
Researchers say new state of matter could extend Moore's Law
There's certainly been no shortage of folks trying to pin down an end date for Moore's Law, but there's also thankfully plenty of researchers doing their best to keep it going, and a team of physicists from McGill University in Montreal now say they've made a discovery that could keep the law alive even further into the future. Their big breakthrough is a new state of matter known as a quasi-three-dimensional electron crystal, which they discovered in a semiconductor material by using a device cooled at temperatures "roughly 100 times colder than intergalactic space," and then exposing the material to the "most powerful continuous magnetic fields generated on Earth." Unlike two-dimensional electron crystals, which lead researcher Dr. Guillaume Gervais equates to a ham sandwich, the quasi-three-dimensional electron crystals are in an "in-between state" between 2D and 3D, which could potentially allow for transistors to improve further as they run up against the physical limits imposed by the laws of physics. [Via InformationWeek, image courtesy University of Cambridge]
Microchip breakthrough could keep Moore's law intact (again)
We're pretty certain we'll be hearing this same story each year, every year for the rest of eternity, but hey, not like we're kvetching over that or anything. Once again, we're hearing that mad scientists have developed a breakthrough that makes Mr. Moore look remarkably bright, as a new approach to chip making could carve features in silicon chips "that are many times smaller than the wavelength of the light used to make them." Reportedly, the new method "produces grids of parallel lines just 25-nanometers wide using light with a wavelength of 351-nanometers," although the grids aren't functional circuits just yet. If you're interested in more technobabble on the matter, head on down to the read link, but we'd recommend against if you're easily frightened by terms like "photolithographic" and "nanotechnology."
