Marketshare
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Windows Phone thrives in Europe, but struggles in China and the US
Microsoft's quest for smartphone market share is hitting a few roadblocks, it seems. Kantar estimates that Windows Phone is still gaining ground in Europe, where it's up year-over-year to 8.1 percent of sales in the first quarter of 2014. However, it's taking a bruising in other areas. In the US, Windows swung from increases this fall to a slight dip in the winter; while it's still doing relatively well at 5.3 percent of US share, it's not posing much of a threat to Android or iOS right now. The platform also took a drubbing in China, where its share was nearly cut in half to exactly one percent thanks to the rise of budget Android handsets.
Death of Windows XP can't quite reverse slowing PC sales
The official end to Windows XP support may have sent many companies into a panic, but it was good news for PC manufacturers this winter... well, sort of. Both Gartner and IDC report a big increase in PC shipments during the first quarter thanks to companies scrambling to replace old XP computers at the last possible moment. However, the two analyst groups note that the sudden spike only managed to soften ongoing declines in PC shipments, rather than reverse them. Depending on which research firm you ask, the number of PCs on the market dropped between 1.7 percent to 4.4 percent year-over-year. That's better than what system builders have seen over most of the past two years, but it's not exactly a recovery.
Why the Mac vs PC marketshare debate is outdated
In years past, tabulating computer marketshare was a simple task. Count how many Macs Apple sold in any given quarter and compare that to how many Windows PCs were sold during the same quarter. The era of the smartphone, however, has fundamentally changed the way we should measure marketshare. The chart above, courtesy of Benedict Evans, shows what happens when we include iOS devices in the marketshare debate. The chart shows how the sale of Mac+iOS devices is now nearly on par with the sale of Windows+Windows Phone devices. Any time a chart like this makes the rounds, it inspires a chorus of naysayers who stand up and say that such comparisons aren't fair. But I contend that compiling marketshare statistics while ignoring the immense popularity of the iPhone and the iPad paints an incomplete picture and wholly ignores the fact that the post-PC era has begun. To wit, here is where Apple's revenue during its most recent quarter came from. In the last quarter, iPhone and iPad sales together accounted for 76.9% of Apple's revenue. The Mac, once the star in Apple's product lineup, has since been relegated to the bench, accounting for just 11.1% of Apple's quarterly revenue. That being the case, Mac vs PC marketshare is a largely outdated framework because the burgeoning post-PC world operates on a much grander scale than the traditional desktop/laptop market ever did. Consequently, when folks stand up and shout that lumping together iPad sales with Mac sales isn't fair, they're really missing the point. As new products emerge and more profitable revenue streams take shape, the questions we ask have to adjust accordingly. For instance, we're no longer concerned about how the iPod is selling compared to other MP3 players because that discussion has since given way to more important and relevant comparisons. Similarly, the traditional Mac vs. PC debate is nothing more than a relic of an era where one couldn't watch or listen to almost the entirety of all the music, TV, and movies ever put out in the history of human existence from a mobile device that can fit in your pocket. So while you can put together a strict Mac sales vs PC sales chart, as many research firms tend to do, it's not very instructive in today's mobile-centric age. Evans writes: It's a pretty simply point: mobile is the next computing platform and it's a lot bigger than PCs in unit sales, so even the smaller player can overtake the total PC business. By sales figures and revenue alone, the narrative has to shift away from the traditional Mac vs PC debate and encompass mobile devices. Keeping iPads out of the debate, for instance, results in an incomplete picture. Otherwise, we might as well still be examining iPod marketshare.
PC shipments faced their steepest-ever drop in 2013
We hate to say it, but the era of near-constant PC industry growth might be over. IDC estimates that computer shipments fell by 9.8 percent in 2013, representing the steepest drop ever recorded. There just isn't much momentum in developing markets like China or Latin America, according to researchers. Sluggish economies and the shift toward mobile devices have cooled demand that was once red-hot. More established regions fared slightly better, although they may have been helped by a rush of users upgrading from Windows XP in the fourth quarter. IDC expects a partial recovery in the long run, but it believes that shipments have largely flattened out. If that's the case, PC vendors face much fiercer competition than they have in the past -- they may have to resort to extra-low prices and other extreme measures to keep buyers interested.
PlayStation 4 tops next-generation console sales in the US for January
As it turns out, Microsoft's lead in US next-generation console sales was short-lived. NPD has just released estimates which show that the PlayStation 4 outsold the Xbox One during January. Neither the NPD nor Sony is providing exact numbers, although Sony Senior VP Guy Longworth states that PS4 sales were almost twice as high as Microsoft's. The system was certainly alluring enough to drive game sales during the quarter -- the PS4 was the platform of choice for five of the top 10 games, while the Xbox One was never higher than second. Microsoft also isn't divulging Xbox One figures, although NPD tells us that the system was the runner-up in hardware sales. The company can trumpet the strength of the overall Xbox brand, though. Together, the Xbox 360 and Xbox One represented 47 percent of game sales; the Xbox 360 was also the most popular system for five of the top 10 software releases. Nintendo has a silver lining on its dark cloud, too. Game sales for the 3DS and Wii U respectively increased by six and 26 percent year-over-year. That's no mean feat when overall spending was down by a quarter. Whichever platform you prefer, we wouldn't declare the console wars over -- not when expected system sellers like Titanfall could easily shift the balance of power.
China sees rare drop in smartphone shipments as its market matures
We tend to see China as a hotbed of smartphone growth, but we're going to have to rethink that belief in light of new figures from IDC. The analyst firm estimates that smartphone shipments to the country dropped from 94.8 million in the third quarter of last year to 90.8 million in the fourth -- the first time demand has fallen since mid-2011. Researchers blame the dip on a mix of factors, including the last-minute launch of China Mobile's LTE network (in mid-December), lower device subsidies and customers who opted for tablets instead. However, the analysts primarily believe that the market has matured; phone makers have mostly courted first-time buyers for the past few years, but they now have to justify more upgrades among existing users. IDC is still optimistic that the Chinese market will grow rapidly in 2014, but it's evident that companies can no longer take that relentless pace for granted.
Android climbed to 79 percent of smartphone market share in 2013, but its growth has slowed
Android may have quickly reached the top of the smartphone world, but there are signs that this red-hot growth is cooling off... if only just. Strategy Analytics estimates that the platform claimed nearly 79 percent of smartphone market share in 2013. While that's both a record high and a big step up from almost 69 percent in 2012, it also represents Android's slowest annual growth rate since its birth. As the analysts note, Google is facing an increasingly saturated market; there are only so many more customers it can reach. Not that things were rosy for other mobile operating systems last year. Apple shipped more phones in 2013, but not enough to avoid a dip to 15.5 percent market share. Windows Phone grew to 3.6 percent share, although its one-point improvement over 2012 wasn't going to make Apple or Google nervous. And for smaller platforms, 2013 was downright ugly. BlackBerry, Symbian and others fell from a collective 9.1 percent in 2012 to just 2 percent. The smartphone market in 2014 is effectively a three-horse race, and it's doubtful that the rankings will change any time soon.
Smartphone sales may have topped 1 billion in 2013, depending on who you ask
You once had to look to the broader cellphone market to see more than a billion phones ship in one year. Well, times have changed... at least, if you ask the right analysts. IDC now estimates that smartphone shipments topped one billion for the first time in 2013. However, Strategy Analytics begs to differ -- it reckons that shipments fell just short, at 990 million. Whether or not the industry hit its symbolic milestone, the roughly 40 percent increase over 2012 data shows that the smartphone market had plenty of room to grow last year. Samsung led the pack with 31.3 percent of the the market, while Apple dipped to 15.3 percent as both Samsung and Chinese manufacturers (including Huawei and Lenovo) chipped away at its second-place position. As for what happened in the fourth quarter? Both analyst groups say that Samsung was once again the top vendor, although they note that the Korean firm's share was largely flat at 29 percent. Not that Apple fared any better, as its record-setting iPhone shipments weren't enough to prevent a slide to 18 percent share. Huawei, LG and Lenovo were the real victors -- each of them typically gained a point or more of share in the past year. IDC chalks some of this up to the rise of very low-cost smartphones, which are quickly taking over developing markets like China and India. Companies which focus on more expensive handsets, such as Apple and Samsung, have the most to lose in these areas.
Kantar: Samsung sales stall in China and Europe despite Android's overall growth
Thanks to its latest earnings report, we already knew that Samsung's market share dropped last quarter. But analytics outfit Kantar has now shown us mainly where: the all-important Chinese and European markets. According to its figures, the Korean giant has slipped 2.2 percent in France, the UK, Italy, Spain and Germany over last year while remaining flat in China during the same period. Since Android's overall wedge of the smartphone pie increased 5 percent in China, that means Samsung has lost ground to local companies like Xiaomi, which is now the sales leader in that nation. All that could change soon, of course, as Samsung is due to launch its Galaxy S 5 flagship in the next month or two. While Apple's iOS dropped in most markets over last year, it held strong in key markets like China and the UK, while accounting for 44 percent of holiday handset sales in the US. Cupertino is also king of Japan with 69 percent of total smartphone share, due in large part to Japan's largest operator, NTT Docomo finally carrying Apple handsets. As for the rest of the pack, Windows Phone has picked up significant market share in every region over last year and is even the number two smartphone OS in Italy. That's mostly at the expense of Blackberry, which now holds a miniscule 0.4 percent of the US market and has declined precipitously everywhere else -- to the point that its not a given that it'll appear on any charts soon.
Why research data about Apple sales is a bunch of bull
An iWatch. An iRing. An iTV. Just a few items that, if analysts actually knew what they were talking about, would already be splashed across Apple's online retail store, ready for purchase. It's no secret that analyst predictions regarding Apple are typically suspect at best. After all, fifth-hand and anonymous rumors emanating from Apple's supply chain aren't exactly confidence-building data points. One would, however, assume that cold hard data compiled by professional research firms might inspire just a tad more confidence. So while only Apple truly knows what products it will release in the future, we can, at the very least, count on research firms to give us the inside scoop as to how Apple's current products are selling, right? Wrong. Apple research data is often contradictory in nature and bears a striking resemblance to supermarket celebrity magazines; pick up one magazine and Kanye West and Kim Kardashian are looking to adopt; pick up another and they're filing for divorce. In short, if you really want to know how Apple's products are selling, you have to hear it straight from Apple. A pair of research reports released earlier this month help support this rather obvious premise. Last week, the research firm Gartner released preliminary US sales data for PC sales from the Q4 of 2013. The report found that Apple shipped 2.17 million Macs last quarter, giving it a 13.7 percent share of the US market. IDC, meanwhile, released its own sales data which found that Apple shipped only 1.6 million Mac units during the holiday quarter. With such varying and ultimately flimsy data, it's easy to extrapolate all sorts of trends that may or may not be based in reality. If you're looking at Gartner and IDC side by side, one report would have you believe that Apple's share of the PC market grew last quarter while the other would have you believe that it shrunk. I can't help but be reminded of an all-time great Simpsons quote from Homer Simpson: People can come up with statistics to prove anything, Kent. Forty percent of all people know that. The lesson? Don't believe anything, or perhaps everything, you read when it comes to analyst data. Remember the stellar launch of Apple's 2013 iPhone lineup this past September? You know, when Apple announced sales of 9 million iPhones in just three days? Well, you might also recall that analyst Gene Munster, apparently using a statistical model in dire need of some fine-tuning, predicted iPhone sales of 5 to 6 million. Again, we'd all be well-advised to wait for official numbers from Apple before jumping to any foregone conclusions about how disappointing or pleasantly surprising Apple's sales data is. And one final parting shot for the road: You might recall this doozy from the research firm Pyramid Research. Back in 2011, they predicted that Windows Phone would become the top selling smartphone worldwide by 2015. As for real numbers, Apple will divulge all come January 27 at the company's earnings conference call. And for the record, Apple during the 2012 holiday quarter sold 4.1 million Macs.
Gartner: PC shipments have dropped 6.9 percent in Q4 2013, emerging markets to blame
Those tumbling PC shipments we've seen all year? They add up to a 6.9 percent year-over-year drop compared to 2012's Q4 numbers, according to Gartner. The group's latest totals puts PC shipments at 82.6 million units for Q4 2013, with the lions share coming from HP and Lenovo - though only the latter managed to grow its business during that period. Dell came in at a distant third, moving 4 million fewer machines than HP while maintaing a 6.2 percent increases in shipments since Q4 2012. The news seems grim for all but a select free companies, but at least it won't get any worse: Gartner says that most markets have bottomed out, and the losses mostly come from emerging Asia/Pacific markets where consumers first computing devices are typically smartphones and tablets, not traditional PCs. Despite predictions that the US market has reached its lowest point, analysts note that holiday sales were primarily dominated by tablets and mobile devices, though optimistically note that hybrid devices and lower cost notebooks could spur some growth in 2014. Eager to dive into all the nitty gritty numbers? Hit the source link below for Gartner's full report.
Chromebooks overtake Android tablets and Macs in US business sales
Chrome OS is at last gaining some momentum -- among US businesses and schools, anyway. The NPD Group reports that Chromebooks represented 9.6 percent of all computing devices sold through American commercial channels in 2013, or enough to surpass the market share of Android tablets, Windows tablets and MacBooks. Google's rise put the squeeze on traditional computers, which dropped from 77.8 percent of the commercial space in 2012 to 63.7 percent this year. NPD researchers don't believe that the PC is going away, but they note that the most successful companies diversified their gadget lineups. Samsung's combo of Android and Chromebooks helped it jump to 10 percent share of commercial sales in 2013, while PC-focused builders like HP took a bruising; it's clear that one-trick ponies won't thrive in the workplace for much longer.
IDC: 21 percent of smartphones shipped in Q3 were big-screened behemoths
Supersized smartphones have been increasing in popularity for quite some time, but IDC now believes that they've truly hit the mainstream. The analyst group estimates that about 21 percent of the 261.1 million smartphones shipped in the third quarter had displays five inches or larger; that's a huge jump from just three percent a year earlier. An influx of big flagships like the Galaxy S 4 and G2 no doubt played a major role in the growth. However, IDC notes that the average price of a large-screened phone has dropped by 22.8 percent in one year -- those shipments included a wave of lower-cost behemoths like the Ascend Mate and Galaxy Mega 6.3. IDC is also estimating market share for the quarter (shown after the break), although it's painting a familiar picture. Android now has more than 80 percent of the market, while iOS is treading water at 12.8 percent. Windows Phone grew quickly as well, climbing from two percent in Q3 2012 to 3.6 percent a year later. The fourth quarter may be a different story, however -- Nokia is getting into the giant handset game with the Windows Phone-based Lumia 1520 and 1320, while Apple is enjoying brisk sales of its recently launched (if relatively small) iPhone 5s. We won't be shocked if Google's mobile rivals grab a larger slice of the market.
Android to iPhone trend accelerating
Consumer Intelligence Research Partners (CIRP) released new data highlighting, among other things, that an increasing number of Android users are making the leap to the iPhone. AppleInsider was able to access the entirety of the report and relayed a few of the more notable details. Specifically, CIRP interviewed 400 new iPhone 5s and 5c buyers and found that 20 percent of surveyed respondents were upgrading from Android devices. In 2012, that number was 16 percent. Also of note, and clearly evident in the chart above, is that many iPhone buyers are already existing iPhone owners. Indeed, the stickiness of the iOS ecosystem is often overlooked when evaluating the significance of smartphone marketshare. As for specific data points, the number of existing iPhone users upgrading to new iPhone models this year checked in at 65 percent, an increase from the 55 percent figure CIRP recorded during last year's iPhone 5 launch. On a related point, and speaking to the stickiness of the iOS ecosystem once again, CIRP found that just 7 percent of Samsung smartphone buyers were upgrading from iPhones. There's a lot more data over at AppleInsider that's worth checking out. On a final note, I think it's important to point out once more that iPhone users, by and large, exhibit more brand loyalty than other smartphone users. While cynics will likely attribute this to "fanbois" or other such nonsense, the reality is that consumers are likely to stick with brands and products that they enjoy and which work well for them. To that end, smartphone marketshare can be informative, but not necessarily as instructive as it would otherwise appear. In short, Apple doesn't busy itself trying to amass market share, however temporary, to appear like a popular brand in surveys. On the contrary, Apple is more concerned with the type of user it attracts than the sheer volume of users that other companies are seemingly preoccupied with.
Windows 8.1's web use doubles shortly after launch
Web traffic doesn't directly translate to market share, but it's handy for tracking the adoption of brand new operating systems -- take Windows 8.1, for example. Net Applications notes that Microsoft's new OS nearly doubled in web share upon its official launch in October, climbing to 1.7 percent. Clearly, a lot of web surfers had been waiting to upgrade. As you might imagine, though, the software took share from its predecessor as customers either replaced PCs or downloaded the free update. Windows 8 declined for the first time ever, falling half a point to 7.5 percent; the two 8.x revisions gained 0.4 points when put together, but Windows as a whole dipped slightly to 90.7 percent. Redmond wasn't the only one releasing a new platform, of course. Apple's OS X Mavericks accounted for more than 0.8 percent of web traffic last month, or enough to put it past Tiger and Leopard almost overnight. While the overall Mac platform only grew by a tiny amount to hit 7.7 percent of web use, we doubt that the crew at 1 Infinite Loop is complaining. It's not clear how the dueling Apple and Microsoft upgrades will compare in the long run, but you can check the historical trends both after the break and at the source link.
Android tops 81 percent of smartphone market share in Q3
Now that we know what smartphone market share looked like in the third quarter when broken down by manufacturer, it's time to compare performance by platform. As you'd imagine, the world is still Android's oyster. Strategy Analytics estimates that the OS has crossed the symbolic 80 percent mark, reaching 81.3 percent of smartphone shipments by the end of September. Not that Google was the only company doing well -- Nokia's strong US sales helped Windows Phone grow to 4.1 percent of the market, or nearly double what it had a year ago. Whether or not these trends continue is another matter. Although Android likely isn't in danger given the launches of phones like the Galaxy Note 3, there are also new iPhones and Lumias on the scene; there may be one or two surprise upsets when the fourth quarter is over.
ASUS and Samsung gain wide swaths of tablet market share in Q3
IDC has posted third quarter market share estimates which show that Android tablet makers had an exceptional summer. Samsung jumped more than two points over its Q2 results, claiming 20.4 percent of shipments; ASUS also thrived during the period, moving up from just 4.5 points in the second quarter to 7.4 percent three months later. Both saw big year-over-year gains, although they didn't grow as quickly as up-and-comers like Acer and Lenovo. It's not hard to see why ASUS and Samsung made such large strides -- both the Galaxy Tab 3 line and the new Nexus 7 launched in the summer. Things weren't quite as rosy for other tablet designers. While Apple was still the top manufacturer, it slipped below 30 percent in market share. IDC hasn't yet broken down shipments by OS, but it notes that the "others" category -- including Amazon, Microsoft and other small players -- shrank slightly to 35.3 points. The field is very likely to change in the fourth quarter between new iPads, the Kindle Fire HDX and Surface sequels. For now, though, it appears that the tablet market is shifting toward the giants of the Android world.
Huawei overtakes LG in smartphone market share during Q3
Need proof that China is a crucial smartphone market? Strategy Analytics is more than happy to oblige. It just posted third quarter global market share estimates showing that Huawei has overtaken LG since the Q2 report, claiming third place with 5.1 percent of sales. This isn't the first time that the Chinese phone maker has reached such lofty heights, but it comes even as LG produced stellar results; Huawei just happened to grow faster. Researchers attributed the rise to strong sales of its higher-end Ascend P6 and the mainstream G610, particularly in Huawei's home country. Otherwise, it's a familiar story. Samsung is still ruling the roost with 35.2 percent share, while Apple held on to the second-place spot at 13.4 percent. Huawei also isn't guaranteed to maintain its position when LG is likely to get a fourth quarter sales boost from the G2. However, it's evident that smartphone designers shouldn't get too comfy -- it doesn't take much to change the status quo.
Gartner and IDC: PC shipments continued to slide in Q3, but the worst may be over
The PC market has been on the decline for the past year, but there are new hints that the situation is improving -- if only slightly. Both Gartner (shown here) and IDC estimate that worldwide computer shipments dropped roughly eight percent year-over-year in the third quarter. While that's not exactly comforting to vendors, it's better than the double-digit losses of the past several months; the analyst groups even saw flat or positive growth in countries like Japan and the US. Any further declines in some regions may be relatively gentle, Gartner says. As for who's out in front? Heavyweights like Lenovo, HP and Dell grew thanks to improving business sales and some advance shipments of Windows 8.1 PCs. Acer and ASUS, meanwhile, were dealt the worst blow as their netbook sales continued to suffer from the rise of mobile OS tablets. Neither Gartner nor IDC is predicting a turnaround for the industry, but they suggest that PC builders are finally figuring out their places in a world where mobile devices rule.
Windows 8 reaches 8 percent of web traffic, but Windows 7 grows quicker
Web traffic for a major new operating system typically grows at a consistently faster pace than its predecessor. That's not true for Windows 8, however -- NetApplications now estimates that Windows 7 outpaced its newer counterpart for the first time in September. While Windows 8 did grow to a symbolic 8 percent of web use last month, its ancestor grew slightly faster, hitting 46.4 percent. We wouldn't necessarily say that Windows 8 is in trouble based on these figures, though. The rise in Windows 7 use corresponds to a drop for Windows XP (shown after the break), which suggests that corporate customers are in the midst of upgrades; they're less likely to choose a young OS. Microsoft still faces long-term problems, but they're more likely to stem from customers' shift toward mobile devices and away from PCs.
