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Coin flips don’t appear to have 50/50 odds after all
A large team of researchers concluded that, when caught in the air, coin flips are 50.8% likely to land on the same side that started facing upwards.
Apple now requires that games disclose odds of 'loot box' rewards
Apple has always operated its app business with an eye to protecting its customers from potentially shady business practices. From early guidelines around app content to more recent bans on misleading apps, Apple has a heavier hand in what shows up in the App Store. Now Apple has added a new requirement for games that offer loot boxes with randomized rewards for purchase. If your game offers them, you have to now disclose the odds of receiving the rewards promised.
China forces game producers to reveal loot box odds
Using addictive animations and other psychological tricks, games like Overwatch and Hearthstone hook you on free loot boxes, then make you pay for the rush with real money. That sounds like gambling to China's Ministry of Culture, so it's instituting some new rules starting in May 2017. The government will force publishers to post the probability "of all virtual items, props and services" available in loot boxes, along with recent results, on the game's official website, according to the ruling.
Las Vegas bets that SpaceX will make it to Mars before NASA
NASA may believe that it'll be the first to land humans on Mars, but don't tell that to Las Vegas betting houses. Popular Mechanics has asked Docsports' Raphael Esparza to set odds for the first organization to put people on Mars, and he believes that SpaceX stands a much better chance of reaching the Red Planet (5 to 1) than anyone else, including NASA (80 to 1). To put it bluntly, SpaceX has the money and the motivation that others don't -- NASA would be the favorite, but its budget cuts are holding it back.
The Daily Grind: Do you prize MMO stability?
Will your MMO be there tomorrow? How about next year? How about in five years? As often as we consult the Massively office oracle about such matters, the answer is always, "Outlook hazy, ask later." Predicting whether or not a game is going to be around for a while yet to come isn't as easy to do, especially considering that we've witnessed a few surprise shutdowns over the past couple of years. But I've seen many gamers accept or reject the notion of playing an MMO based on how long those gamers perceives it lasting. In other words, they're trying to play the odds if they're going to sink time into a game. I can sympathize and certainly relate. Do you do this? Is it a dealbreaker if you think an MMO is likely to go under within a few years? Is it an added incentive if a game's been around a while and probably will be around for a while yet? Every morning, the Massively bloggers probe the minds of their readers with deep, thought-provoking questions about that most serious of topics: massively online gaming. We crave your opinions, so grab your caffeinated beverage of choice and chime in on today's Daily Grind!
Pirates of the Burning Sea fine-tunes engagement odds
It's never fun to be the one on the bottom of a PvP dogpile, and the folks at Pirates of the Burning Sea understand that. The developers have been making adjustment to their open sea engagement rules to find the right balance to make a memorable encounter. While the team initially restricted confrontations so that ganking by player mob couldn't happen, the devs admit that the end result wasn't what they had hoped: "That adjustment went too far, and the fights since have by and large been less dynamic." So to bring back some of the unpredictability in encounters without making it a gankfest, the devs will be tweaking engagements so that at maximum they can only be two-on-one fights. They also vowed to keep an eye on these fights going forward, particularly in regard to the reinforcement timers.
The Perfect Ten: The truth about lockboxes
Call them lockboxes, lootboxes, super packs, gift packs, treasure boxes, mystic chests, or Chupacabra's lunchpails, but these virtual boxes of mystery, fame, and fortune are all the rage in MMOs these days. Few studios have resisted the siren's call of such easy money, much to the dismay of many-a-gamer. The idea is that a game will dish out to players free locked treasure boxes that require purchased keys to open. The allure of the box's mystery prize is often too strong to resist, especially when there's the possibility of a huge reward inside. The result too often is strong buyer's remorse and studio glee. There's been a lot of conversation around lockboxes here on Massively, so I wanted to dedicate this week's Perfect Ten to dissecting the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth of these items for you.
Oddsmakers make book on the iPad 2 event
Just before every Apple event, we get the word from Tony Harvey and the oddsmakers at Bookmaker.com. This time, they've set the odds on what to expect from the iPad 2. While these guys aren't tech pundits -- they're high stakes online sports bookies -- we thought you'd like to see what they came up with in terms of odds on various features for the upcoming iPad. In each case on the table (click "read more" to see it), the +/- indicates the return on the wager, while the percentage is the likelihood that response will occur. I'm not a betting man, but I indicated my selection by putting it in green on the table. In all cases, I pretty much agreed with the oddsmakers. I did take exception to two of the items listed -- the "slimmer, lighter, and retina display" because I feel that it will be slimmer and lighter, but won't have a retina display, and the "non-smudge screen & gyroscope" because I don't think it will have a non-smudge screen. We'll find out for sure tomorrow morning at 10 AM PST. Be sure to join the TUAW team for our metaliveblog of the event. Note: The numbers displayed here are for entertainment purposes only and do not represent an endorsement by TUAW.com that you bet on any Apple event.
Gold Capped: Take the Mysterious Fortune Card house advantage
Every week, WoW Insider brings you Gold Capped, in which Basil "Euripides" Berntsen aims to show you how to make money on the auction house, and Insider Trader, which is all about professions. For Gold Capped's inside line on making money in game, check in here every Thursday, and email Basil with your comments, questions or hate mail! This week's gold blogosphere post is Anaalius's Darkmoon deck report. There's a craze in /trade. People are advertising Mysterious Fortune Cards that can be flipped to rarely turn into a Fortune Card that vendors for 5,000g. Like lambs to the slaughter, enough people head to the AH and buy a few that it's become a serious moneymaker for scribes. I use the expression "lambs to the slaughter" mostly in jest.
Rumor: Verizon and Apple are at odds over pricing on CDMA iPhone
Analyst Maynard J. Um told investors today that while the rumored Verizon/Apple deal to bring a CDMA iPhone to the big V is still on the table, it's hit a snag over a pricing disagreement. Apparently Apple is used to being paid about $700 for every iPhone sold through AT&T, while Verizon pays out just $450 for Motorola's Droid, and the two companies are at odds over how much money should change hands for iPhones sold over the network. Seems like there should be a compromise somewhere in there, but of course any delays in making an agreement mean delays in actually releasing the phone. And just for the heck of it, Um mentioned that he does expect a tablet this year, and that Apple's stock will depend on the "functionality and appeal" of the rumored new device. This just in: If people like something and think it works well, they will buy it. Thanks, analyst!
Breakfast Topic: It's gotta happen sometime
Whitney over on WoW Ladies LJ has a story that's so improbable it must be true. Not only did her guild pick up an epic on command in Naxxramas, and not only did they pick up two of the exact same epic item in a row, but they actually got three of the exact same item in the same room. As you regular readers know, I'm horrible at math, so I'm not sure how unlikely that is (you'd probably have to figure how much trash you actually kill every Naxx run and combine how likely it is for each of them to drop the item), but I'm guessing very. Still, given that every drop is randomly generated when a mob spawns (in other words, when you walk into an instance), it's still possible. Even a flipped coin can come up heads 100 times in a row.So yes, even though we don't think about it much, it's totally possible to get Mr. Pinchy on the first try, or pick up three epics in three pulls. Ever just been really, really lucky? I've had the opposite happen, too -- I go for an hour without seeing a drop, check all of the databases to make sure I'm in the right place, and then just before I quit, sure enough, whatever I was looking for drops.Got any stories of the random number generator (RNG) being really random?
