TiVo deathwatch update: it's still on

As some of you may remember, a couple years back we (begrudgingly) posted a TiVo deathwatch, which was to remain active until TiVo becomes consistently profitable (or gets bought, or dies). Well, as of two days ago TiVo did in fact post its first profitable quarter, taking in $835k. (TiVo broke even once in 2005, but that's about as good as it's gotten.) Whereas we're really stoked for the crew in Alviso, the fact is less than a million bucks is chump change considering how much they lost in Q106 ($10.7 million); and unfortunately, TiVo also lost 102,000 subscribers from DirecTV in Q107 (whereas Q106 they added 53,000 net new subs). That means TiVo is down subscribers to 4.3m from the 4.4m they had this time last year.

We've spent the last couple days thinking this over, but as much as we'd like to plant a flag in the ground for TiVo, we're just not ready to lift the deathwatch yet. We just still haven't seen consistent profit, the Comcast rollout has been pending for over two years, and while TiVo cut some dead weight and lightened costs, it's still losing -- not gaining -- customers. On a more positive note, we have a feeling that as soon as these Comcast STBs DO start rolling out TiVo is going to rack up crazy amounts of happy new TiVo users, and will hopefully start turning a real profit in turn. But until then we can still only stay cautiously optimistic at best. Fingers crossed, TiVo folk, we're still with you. [Warning: PDF link]