I share your excitement in how quickly Google is gaining mobile marketshare, but I don't think I've met a single person who chose to use Android simply because it supports Flash! I don't think people care about it all that much. Nice to have, sure. Necessity? Not really.
I think your "90% only upgrading" statistic is a little hyperbolic. Both Android and iPhone are acquiring new users at a pretty astounding pace -- picking up new users from switching from other platforms or making their first foray into the smartphone world.
I think we'll see both platforms continue to grow significantly in the foreseeable future. That said, yeah, Android is already selling more phones than Apple and I don't think it will be surprising to eventually see them with greater market share in the mobile space -- we're talking about a single phone platform vs. a platform with dozens and dozens of handsets from numerous manufacturers.
I will agree to that point but what I should have said was on launch day, Most Android phones are bought same way but I think there is more of a presence of non smartphone people buying the hyped up phones on the other carriers. I work in a Hospital and lately I have been asked a lot about the Evo and other android phones, but not one person has asked me about the 4G. We all know the 4G will sell very well but only to people that already own a 3G that has an upgrade or people with a 3GS that are buying it full price.
But you are right both are still selling very well, but Android is definitely selling better with absoluetly no signs of slowing.
I particularly love that the overwhelming success of Android selling so well on multiple hardware platforms and all major carriers could be the last straw for apple and its carrier exclusivity deal. Apple will have to open up to other carriers to compete and finally the real fight will begin!!
I'm on Sprint and choosing between a 3GS/4G and any one of the great Android phones would be really hard!! Looking forward to it!
While I agree that feature rich web-based games/apps are the best option on a mobile platform, I don't think that Flash is the technology that's going to bring about a change like that. Aside from performance and stability issues, Flash is designed for mouse input and a lot of the functionality is based on mousing over the desired region, which is a feature that simple doesn't work on a touch based device.
The above debate aside, I'm excited to see what Google has in store for Gingerbread. This is one of the biggest differentiators between their platform and Apple -- they can rapidly iterate and innovate based upon current customer demand and feedback. Apple's yearly release cycle seems pretty slow and bumbling by comparison.
Android is growing but I don;t think it's because of Flash. I'm the only person I know with an Android phone, so I couldn't say from first hand experience what people think about Flash on a phone, but I can tell you that it really isn't a big issue for me personally. I have a Hero, so I don't even have full Flash, and I don't even notice it there since I never do anything on the web that uses it. Until HTML5 matures, client based mobile apps are going to be superior to those on the web due to their integration into the platform and their ability to leverage features of the OS, such as holding down on an element in Android to reveal a menu.